Congress
How prediction markets landed in Congress’ crosshairs
Lawmakers are quickly coming to a realization: Odds are, Congress is going to have to do something about booming prediction markets.
The online platforms where people can bet on the outcomes of future events like elections, sports and the Oscars had already attracted attention in Washington as the industry garnered backing from Wall Street giants, Silicon Valley investors and even Donald Trump Jr.
That scrutiny has exploded in recent weeks, however, after unusual trading patterns around markets related to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran suggested possible insider profiteering. The result has been an uptick in legislation targeting the industry amid new questions about the policing of its major players.
At the center of the fight is a debate over who should regulate and tax transactions that take place on sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, which operate as financial exchanges but have become best known as sports and political betting platforms. The clash pits states and tribes against an increasingly powerful new industry that has won over key presidential appointees.
Lawmakers of both parties are also eyeing various ways to crack down on insider trading on the platforms — including by members of Congress themselves and their staffs.
“There seems to be a growing consensus that the status quo is unsustainable,” said Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat who was an early entrant into Congress’ prediction market debate.
The platforms, once considered niche, are poised to get new scrutiny across Capitol Hill this year. Senate Commerce Committee members have discussed holding a hearing focused on the industry, according to four people granted anonymity to discuss the private conversations. The House Agriculture Committee, which oversees commodities trading, has been holding bipartisan briefings on the issue, with more expected.
Discussions about the industry largely haven’t reached the GOP leadership level on Capitol Hill, where bigger clashes such as the Department of Homeland Security funding fight have taken precedence. Asked about banning elected officials from trading on prediction markets, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he “hadn’t thought about that” and said he’d “take a look at it.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — after referencing the markets’ high odds that Democrats would win the midterms — told reporters last week it was “reasonable for us to take a look at what can be done in this space and to try to find a bipartisan path forward.”
Washington is getting a crash course on the prediction markets just as the companies have broken out from obscurity to become one of the hottest areas of investment — thanks in part to President Donald Trump, whose regulators have allowed them to offer a larger menu of wagers to their customers.
Kalshi and Polymarket, which operate the largest prediction market platforms, have recently snagged mammoth valuations and inked partnership deals with everyone from BLN and CNBC to Major League Baseball. Kalshi is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a small but powerful financial watchdog. Polymarket is best known for its larger offshore prediction market, which is not regulated by the CFTC, but the company is also pushing into the U.S. with a separate, regulated venue.
Congress’ interest is rising as the fight over industry regulation plays out in the courts. State officials from Arizona to Massachusetts have argued that the prediction markets should be subject to the same rules as traditional sportsbooks and casinos. But the companies have rejected those claims, arguing that they are exclusively overseen by the CFTC. Attorneys following the legal fight expect it to eventually reach the Supreme Court.
A bipartisan group of lawmakers is backing the states’ push to regulate the platforms. Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and John Curtis (R-Utah) have introduced legislation that would ban CFTC-regulated entities from offering products that resemble sports betting or casino games.
They are echoing concerns from state and tribal officials who say prediction markets are threatening critical tax revenue and usurping state-level consumer protections for sports bettors. Notably, Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.), whose panel oversees the CFTC, has expressed concerns about sports betting on the sites.
“What I would like to see is an economic purpose in regulated derivatives markets,” said Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.). “Anything that has no economic purpose, I think, should be taxed like gambling, regulated like gambling.”
The prediction market companies are fighting back, saying that the so-called events contracts they offer are sophisticated financial products — not a form of gambling. They have key allies in the fight, including Trump’s CFTC chair, Mike Selig — who, like the companies, says the agency has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets. GOP senators including Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania and Bill Hagerty of Tennessee have applauded Selig’s posture on the issue.
But esoteric arguments about the nature of gambling have only gotten so much traction in Congress. What has instead galvanized public attention is the specter of insider trading — including possible profiteering from government officials with foreknowledge of geopolitical events such as the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela or the administration’s strikes in Iran.
Possible insider bets related to the war in Iran have spurred several new bills. Reps. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) and Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) introduced bipartisan legislation last week to ban members of Congress and executive branch officials from participating in prediction markets related to policy decisions and political events.
That bill has attracted support from a handful of House Democratic and GOP lawmakers, and a bipartisan group introduced similar legislation in the Senate. The Coalition for Prediction Markets, which has Kalshi as a member, endorsed the legislation soon after introduction.
But there are even broader efforts afoot. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has called for stricter regulations on prediction markets, comparing them to the tobacco industry. And Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) are aiming to entirely ban a wide range of prediction market trading, including anything predicated on government actions or any event “where an individual knows or controls the outcome.”
The CFTC has already promised to go after insider trading on the prediction markets, and both Kalshi and Polymarket recently unveiled new measures designed to head off the improper use of inside information on their platforms.
Kalshi also recently rolled out ads across Washington highlighting that it blocks insider trading on its platform and bans trading directly related to war and deaths. Polymarket has also expanded its presence in Washington — most notably with a pop-up bar on K Street.
“Prediction markets are an emerging technology, yes, but they’re not all the same, and we want to highlight those big distinctions,” Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said. A Polymarket spokesperson declined to comment.
If Congress does take action on the issue, it will end up with the Agriculture panels, currently led by Boozman in the Senate and Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) in the House. Thompson promised “bipartisan hearings and member meetings” on prediction markets in a recent interview.
“It definitely is a focus,” he said. “I don’t know what the conclusion will be.”
But Republicans could be put in a tough spot as prediction market legislation gains momentum. The Trump family has had close ties to prediction markets: Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to Kalshi and Polymarket, and Trump’s social media company announced last year plans to create Truth-Predict, a new prediction market service.
Some Democrats are skeptical Republicans will actually move to address the issue given the Trump family’s ties and their overall friendliness to the firms.
“I don’t think the Republican-led House or Senate will seriously take this on,” Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon said.
Jordain Carney contributed to this report.
NEW YORK — With just five days to go until the primary election in New York, Mayor Zohran Mamdani issued a stark warning to members of Congress who believe “incumbency is a substitute for action”: Watch out.
“People often ask me what I think of the state of the Democratic Party,” Mamdani said to the crowd at the Kings Theatre in Brooklyn as he boosted his endorsed congressional candidates. “This slate here today is our answer. The Democratic Party must change.”
The democratic socialist framed Tuesday’s election as much more than what that means for New York, though. In recounting how people also ask him about the 2028 presidential election, he put it bluntly: “It starts now. It starts on Tuesday.”
“For far too long, our party has seen its job as managing decline instead of delivering material change for working people,” Mamdani said. “That old way of thinking will lose on Tuesday. And frankly, it will lose in South Carolina and New Hampshire. It will fall short of 270 electoral votes, because the party of the past will not be what leads us into the future.”
Mamdani, joined by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, urged his supporters to show up for his endorsed candidates “the way you showed up for me.” They include former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who’s challenging two-term Rep. Dan Goldman; state Assemblymember Claire Valdez, who’s vying for retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez’s seat; and community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier, who’s trying to unseat five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat, the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
Mamdani’s endorsed slate of legislative candidates were at the rally, too.
The rally featured standard stump speeches from the candidates, highlighting the need to support working class New Yorkers and immigrants. Speakers called out the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-Israel group that has loomed over many of these primaries — despite no evident spending from its independent expenditure arm. Sanders also emphasized his call to ban super PACs, which have reshaped primaries across the city.
Taking place just hours after the massive ticker-tape parade celebrating the Knicks’ historic championship, there were also Knicks references galore.
“I hate to break it to you, but OG Anunoby is not here to save the day,” said Mamdani, who was wearing a Knicks jersey under his suit. “The only hands we can count on are ours.”
Sanders, who is wildly popular in New York, previously endorsed Valdez and Lander. Both Valdez and Avila Chevalier are members of the Democratic Socialists of America and are backed by the city chapter in their bids. Sanders had not officially endorsed Avila Chevalier prior to the rally.
“Why are progressives and socialist candidates winning elections all across this country?” Sanders asked. “The answer in my view is not complicated. The working class of America understands that our current economic system is rigged, that it is designed to benefit the wealthy and the powerful.”
Polling has shown Lander with a lead over Goldman, and a tight race for Velázquez’s seat. Public polling is scarce in the Espaillat race, but recent internal surveys suggest Avila Chevalier is posing a real challenge to the incumbent. Mamdani endorsed her just weeks ago, much later than Lander and Valdez, but his engagement in the race has significantly elevated its profile.
“Six months ago, they told us this race was over before it started,” Avila Chevalier said at the rally. “They told us Adriano was untouchable, that he was an institution, that you don’t run against someone like him and win. That this district was his, and that we should wait our turn. And they said it with such confidence, like the outcome had already been written. Look around. Look at what we’ve built.”
Mamdani’s decision to get involved in congressional races is stress-testing how the new mayor navigates relations with powerful, well-respected party figures — many of whom he’s on the opposite side of.
Mamdani’s endorsement is expected to be a significant asset for his picks; he had dominant performances across these districts in last year’s mayoral primary. And that shine doesn’t seem to have dulled. Recent polling has shown that Mamdani has high approval ratings.
Goldman did not support Mamdani during last year’s mayoral primary or the general election, as Lander has often pointed out. Espaillat backed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the primary, but supported Mamdani in the general election. Valdez’s opponents, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and city Council Member Julie Won, both supported Mamdani in the primary.
The mayor has been active on the trail for his congressional candidates of choice in the closing stretch of the campaign. And he touted them all in an advertisement that ran during the first game of the Knicks’ finals run.
Still, Lander has tried to keep some distance. When asked at a recent press conference why he would appear in that ad with Avila Chevalier, who attended a pro-Palestinian rally the day after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack in 2023 — the same rally Lander said he left the DSA over — he said it was an “opportunity to show New Yorkers that politics can be a team sport.” He also clarified that he has not endorsed candidates in any other congressional primaries.
Avila Chevalier told reporters that she went to that rally to “stand against” Israel engaging in “a response that is often disproportionate and creates a greater loss of life.” She added that she has “condemned Hamas” and does “not believe that celebrating the loss of anybody’s life is OK.”
Kings Theatre isn’t located in any of the districts these congressional hopefuls are trying to represent — though it neighbors the seats that Lander and Valdez have their eyes on.
It’s especially far from Espaillat’s district, which includes parts of upper Manhattan and the Bronx.
While handing out campaign literature to people walking out of the subway in Hamilton Heights, Blue Light News asked Espaillat if he had thoughts about Avila Chevalier appearing at the rally.
“I’m rallying right here in my district with my constituents — not in Brooklyn,” he replied.
Jason Beeferman contributed to this report.
Retirement groups are calling on Congress to investigate Meta over a wave of social media scams targeting older Americans.
In a letter sent Thursday to House Homeland Security Committee Chair Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) and ranking member Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), the groups alleged Meta has been slow to take down fraudulent ads, leaving seniors vulnerable to financial loss. The letter, shared exclusively with POLITICO, was signed by the Alliance for Retired Americans, the American Postal Workers Union Retirees and the American Federation of Teachers, among others.
“Fraudulent Medicare ads have proliferated on Meta platforms and too many seniors are getting scammed while Meta profits,” said Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans. “We are calling on Congress to investigate how these scams are allowed to spread, what Meta knew about them, and why stronger protections are not in place. Seniors should not be left vulnerable while scammers and tech companies cash in.”
The letter’s demands follow a report published last month by the Center for Countering Digital Hate, a nonprofit advocacy group, which alleged that Meta has profited by leaving up fraudulent ads, many of which target Medicare recipients.
“Scammers are determined criminals who use increasingly sophisticated tactics to defraud people and evade detection,” Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said in a statement. “We aggressively fight scams on and off our platforms because they’re not good for us or the people and businesses that rely on our services and for years we’ve been one of law enforcement’s strongest partners in the fight against this type of online crime — identifying criminals, disrupting their crimes and helping bring them to justice.”
Stone pointed to several examples of Meta’s efforts to combat scams on its platform, including a recent collaboration with U.S. and Thai law enforcement to disrupt online scams.
It’s not the first time Meta has faced scrutiny over the scams: Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) urged the Federal Trade Commission and the Securities Exchange Commission to open an investigation into the company in November after Reuters reported that Meta in internal documents projected 10 percent of its 2024 revenue would come from fraudulent ads. And in February, a group of bipartisan lawmakers pressed Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg over its plans to prevent and combat fraud on its platforms.
Reps. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) and Lou Correa (D-Calif.) also introduced bipartisan legislation earlier this year to combat predatory scam ads.
Congress is expected to send a landmark, bipartisan housing affordability bill to President Donald Trump’s desk by the end of next week as the Senate and House schedule action on the legislation in the coming days.
The Senate has teed up the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act for final passage on Monday, after completing all its necessary procedural votes this week.
The legislation will then move on to the House where GOP leadership plans to open debate on Wednesday, with a vote expected as early as the same day, according to six people familiar with the vote granted anonymity to discuss plans.
House leadership plans to suspend the rules, requiring a two-thirds majority vote, to speed up the bill’s path to Trump’s desk. Final passage could be pushed to Thursday depending on timing, the people said.
The housing bill aims to tackle housing affordability and boost homeownership and supply ahead of a midterm election dominated by cost-of-living concerns.
The four lawmakers leading the negotiations over the legislation — Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.), ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) and ranking member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) — came to an agreement Tuesday afternoon after months of back and forth on the bill’s contents.
The housing affordability legislation, which the White House supports, contains a provision limiting the role of large institutional investors in the single-family housing market, which was a key condition for Trump to sign the bill.
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