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He’s facing very long odds. So why are New York Republicans betting on Bruce Blakeman?

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ALBANY, New York — Empire State Republicans expect Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman to turbo charge down-ballot turnout as their party’s gubernatorial nominee — boosting GOP candidates in crucial suburban swing races as he mounts an otherwise uphill battle to unseat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

If Blakeman falls short in an underdog bid, New York Republicans can still be successful in what’s shaping up to be a tough political environment.

“Blakeman’s top appeal for Republicans, particularly in swing suburbs, can be realized even if he loses,” said Larry Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. “He could help them on Long Island, Westchester and the Hudson Valley to possibly win seats that could make a difference on which party controls the gavels in Congress. Blakeman is in a position to do that.”

Who leads the Republican ticket in this deep blue state will have critical implications for competitive House races that stand to determine which party will control the narrowly divided chamber and the course of President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. Blakeman’s coattails offer one possible remedy to GOP headwinds in next year’s midterm elections, as Democrats seize on affordability issues and stoke their base’s anger at the sitting president’s policies.

Blakeman, 70, is now the likely Republican nominee for governor after Rep. Elise Stefanik abruptly suspended her campaign last week. Stefanik and Blakeman are both Trump allies, and the 41-year-old upstate New York House member is far better known statewide.

Unlike Stefanik, Blakeman hails from a vote rich political bellwether in a state that’s otherwise dominated by Democrats. He is a self-described “pro-choice” Republican — a stance that will likely attract some independent and conservative Democratic voters. And he has cultivated a mutually beneficial relationship with The New York Post, the influential conservative tabloid that’s part of Trump’s media diet.

His bid is still considered a longshot against Hochul, who led Blakeman by 25 points in a Siena University poll this month. He remains largely unknown to most New Yorkers, and Republicans are trying to reverse a 23-year losing streak in statewide elections. Blakeman’s prior statewide bid for a U.S. Senate seat ended with a loss.

In an interview, Blakeman pointed to his ability to win in a large, diverse suburban county as a sign that he can be successful statewide.

“I want our congressional and Senate and Assembly and local candidates to be successful as well,” he said. “If you look at the demographics of Nassau County, we match the state almost as a mirror image. I feel very confident we’re going to win.”

New York Republicans know the power the top of their party’s ticket can wield in a midterm election. Then-Rep. Lee Zeldin’s 2022 campaign came within 6 points of defeating Hochul, but the Long Islander’s strong suburban showing was credited with helping sweep several House Republicans into office. GOP leaders are poised to replicate that plan in 2026 — a doubling down on a suburban strategy that will also tie all Democrats, including Hochul, to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.

Republicans want to cast the 34-year-old democratic socialist as a lightning rod. Blakeman, whose day-to-day movements are covered in the Big Apple’s media market, would have easy access to blast the left-leaning mayor’s policies.

The most immediate impact may be on the Long Island districts led by moderate Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen — both of which will be top GOP targets.

“It’s definitely going to put those two Nassau seats, Suozzi and Gillen seats into play,” said Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar. “I already thought the Gillen seat would be a top seat in the nation. Suozzi has a number of solid candidates nipping at his toes there to begin with. If I was residing in Nassau County and looking for some very positive results in 2026, I think I just hit the jackpot.”

Suozzi and Gillen campaign representatives pointed to their work with Republicans and ability to win swing seats regardless of the top of the ticket.

“Everyone knows that Tom Suozzi works across the aisle in Congress to take on the affordability crisis, lower healthcare costs, fix the immigration mess and keep our communities safe,” said Kim Devlin, a Suozzi senior advisor. “That’s why he was able to win his district, even while Trump won it as well. People are sick of partisanship and that’s why they will re-elect Tom Suozzi.”

The Gillen campaign offered a similar assessment, noting that she “has a proven record of embracing bipartisanship to achieve results to lower the costs of living and improve public safety.”

“In fact, Bruce Blakeman endorsed her and served as her deputy Supervisor,” a campaign spokesperson said. “Her moderate approach, that prioritizes Long Islanders over politics, is why Rep. Gillen will be re-elected in November.”

Democrats have dominated New York statewide elections since George Pataki left office in 2006. The party lost its final toehold on power in Albany after losing control of the state Senate in 2018. But Republicans continue to maintain competitive races in suburban enclaves, where voters are sensitive to high taxes and concerned about public safety.

“You’re always more likely to lose than win as a Republican in New York, but I think he’s going to be our strongest statewide candidate since George Pataki,” said Republican operative Chapin Fay. “He’s winning in a blue area and he’s sort of MAGA without a lot of the baggage.”

Ensuring success in down-ballot races will be paramount for local Republican leaders with many municipal races switching from low-turnout odd-years to even-numbered years, when more people are expected to vote. That means races for GOP-held seats on some town and village boards and county legislatures may take on a more competitive tilt — threatening Republican power on the local level.

In Nassau County, where Blakeman has served as the top elected official since his 2021 victory, Republicans maintain a robust political operation led by Chair Joe Cairo. Despite widespread GOP losses last month, Nassau County Republican candidates overperformed, Blue Light News reported. Those results underscore the potential strength of Cairo’s voter turnout effort.

“To me, it’s a good strategy,” said Assemblymember Ed Ra, a Nassau County Republican. “It helps when we have a couple of House races that we think are going to be very competitive. For us in the Legislature, we think having a suburban, well-known, well-liked candidate is going to be a positive.”

Long Island is a major prize for any statewide candidate — and the suburbs have been trending Republican this decade with voters activated by concerns over crime and Democratic-backed criminal justice reforms.

New York Democrats acknowledge Blakeman’s strength in Nassau County in particular will present a challenge for down-ballot candidates.

“He will have an organization working for him in Nassau County,” said Jay Jacobs, who serves as both the statewide Democratic Committee chair and the Nassau County Democratic leader. “But I would say that while it certainly will be a factor that we have to take into account in those congressional races and down-ballot races, he likes to tout his great win and his perceived popularity, but we don’t see it that way and our polling doesn’t show it that way.”

Hochul, a Buffalo native, has struggled in the New York City suburbs.

The governor and Jacobs publicly disagreed over supporting Mamdani’s candidacy as her hand-picked party chair moved to distance suburban Democrats from the incoming mayor. She lost Nassau and Suffolk counties to Zeldin three years ago. Hochul was also forced to retool a controversial home building and zoning proposal amid a bipartisan revolt on Long Island.

Hochul on Monday pointed to her efforts addressing crime, housing and jobs on Long Island.

“We will do very well on Long Island,” she predicted. “I’ve spent an enormous amount of time on Long Island.”

Blakeman’s political vulnerabilities may still complicate matters for Republicans. A liberal stance on abortion is unnerving conservative voters the party can’t afford to have stay home. Upstate Republicans, slighted by yet another New York City-area nominee, will have to be won over. Trump’s unpopularity in his native state is also expected to work against Blakeman, who was endorsed by the president over the weekend.

Hochul, too, is expected to be a more formidable incumbent than she was three years ago when she was still a rookie governor and running in a backlash year for her party. The Democratic governor is a formidable fundraiser and she has also worked to build up the state Democrats’ political infrastructure to buttress vulnerable candidates running below her on the ballot.

Her campaign moved swiftly to define Blakeman, who remains unknown to 70 percent of voters, the Siena poll found, saying Blakeman “has gone all-in on Donald Trump’s deeply unpopular MAGA movement.” And Hochul questioned whether he ultimately would be the nominee.

“The Republican Party is in such chaos, I’m not even sure he’s going to end up being the nominee. This changes by the hour,” Hochul told Blue Light News at a news conference. “I’m not going to speculate about the prospective opposition, other than knowing it’s going to be a MAGA, Trump-endorsed Republican.”

Bill Mahoney contributed to this report.

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Congress

Republicans confront the massive cost of Trump’s Middle East war

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Republicans on Capitol Hill are preparing to confront a staggering price tag for the war in the Middle East after closed-door briefings this week detailed the rapid consumption of expensive munitions and the lack of any firm deadline for the end of the military campaign.

Asked how much the Iran offensive would cost, House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) didn’t sugarcoat it.

“A lot,” he replied.

Senior Republicans privately expect President Donald Trump’s administration to request tens of billions of dollars for the Middle East conflict and other military needs from Congress in the coming days, with some GOP lawmakers hearing estimates that the Pentagon is spending as much as $2 billion a day on the war.

Three F-15E jets shot down by friendly fire in Kuwait are estimated to cost $100 million alone. But Trump officials in private briefings have declined to give lawmakers any specific numbers, according to six congressional Republicans granted anonymity to describe the internal discussions.

A White House request for supplemental funding could further balloon once it hits Capitol Hill, according to four other people with direct knowledge of the matter. Farm-state Republicans want an additional $15 billion in tariff relief for farmers, while others float adding tens of billions of dollars in wildfire aid to get enough Democratic support to pass the massive bill.

The prospect of a growing new spending measure has GOP leaders bracing for a messy internal fight, with fiscal hawks who have long decried “forever wars” and bloated Pentagon budgets deeply unsettled by some of the cost estimates flying around on Capitol Hill. At the very least, some are planning to demand offsetting spending cuts.

“I haven’t seen any specifics … but if it’s unpaid-for, I generally have an issue,” Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho) said.

Another House Republican granted anonymity to describe the conversations among GOP hard-liners said, “It’s not a ‘hell no,’ but it should be offset somehow.”

The topic is now looming over next week’s House Republican policy retreat, which kicks off Monday with a speech from Trump at the president’s resort in Doral, Florida. If the administration sends its formal funding request in the coming days, House GOP leaders will be forced to confront the issue head on.

At least some are expressing unqualified early support for any administration request. House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast (R-Fla.), for instance, said in an interview this week he is ready to support an emergency funding bill spending tens of billions of dollars on the Iran operation alone.

That sentiment could be challenged by the congressional Republicans who are privately wary of the open-ended timeline and shifting rationales for the war. One House Republican recently remarked that Trump’s pledge to do “whatever” it takes, including entertaining boots on the ground, sounded like “President Lyndon Johnson going into Vietnam.”

Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a vulnerable Pennsylvania Republican, noted that “as much as we need to neutralize their capabilities to continue to attack us, we do also need to make sure that we don’t get dragged into a forever war.”

Asked in an interview if Congress is ready to approve a $50 billion Pentagon funding package, Speaker Mike Johnson replied that he didn’t know the specific number yet but Congress would pass the bill “when it’s appropriate and get it right.”

“We’re waiting on the White House and [the Pentagon] to let us know, but we have an open dialogue about it,” Johnson said.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who is attuned to the spending concerns among the fiscal hawks inside the GOP ranks, demurred when asked about the potential for a $50 billion package.

“We’re still just in the first few days of this conflict, and there’s no ask yet from the Department of War for a supplemental,” Scalise said in an interview Wednesday.

He referenced the laborious talks ahead: “When that time comes, we’ll obviously have very serious conversations, because it’s important that the Department of War have the tools they need to keep America safe.”

A bigger potential headache is brewing for Johnson as members of his conference debate whether additional military funding should go in a much-discussed but long-shot budget reconciliation bill. That could move to Trump’s desk along party lines without Democratic support, but only if Republicans are almost completely unified.

House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said in an interview this week he expected the chamber to move forward on an initial emergency funding bill but that a second filibuster-skirting megabill could contain additional Pentagon spending, along with some possible offsetting cuts.

“It’s not just for the current conflict,” Arrington said. “There are things that need to be retooled fundamentally at the Defense Department, and the president’s team is making a really good case for that.”

Rep. Ralph Norman, one GOP hard-liner who has objected in the past to big Pentagon budgets, now says he would “absolutely” support a $50 billion bill without offsets.

“I don’t like it, but with what this president’s doing with income — the GDP is increasing, the money he’s bringing in for other investments — to handicap him on that, that’s a problem,” said Norman, who is running for South Carolina governor and seeking Trump’s support.

In the Senate, some GOP appropriators are cautioning that any war funding bill will be a big lift — and warning the administration to get specific, and fast.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a senior member of the Defense Appropriations subcommittee, said the “administration should not be taking anything for granted.”

“If they come to us at the end of the month and say, ‘This is what we want, and basically, deliver the votes’ … it’s not a winning strategy, in my view,” she said. “You’ve got to start making the case.”

Katherine Tully-McManus and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

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GOP fundraiser with Hegseth scrapped amid Iran War buildup

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Rep. Zach Nunn has postponed a planned “Top Gun” themed fundraiser with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that had drawn criticism over its timing — at the start of a war that has already resulted in U.S. casualties.

The Iowa Republican announced the postponement Thursday on social media.

Nunn had said Hegseth would appear at the fundraiser on Saturday, hours after the initial U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in Iran. The event, called “Top Nunn” and billed as a “salute to the troops,” was scheduled for later this month in a Des Moines suburb.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon publicly identified the first U.S. deaths in the war, troops who were killed by an Iranian drone strike in Kuwait. The six soldiers were assigned to an Army Reserve command based in Nunn’s district, and two of them were from Iowa.

The announcement of the fundraiser drew strong condemnation from Democrats, who accused Hegseth of leveraging the war for political purposes. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Katie Smith attacked Nunn’s event as “callous and disqualifying” in a statement on Wednesday.

Nunn, a former intelligence officer for the Air Force, explained the postponement in a social media post while offering condolences to the families of the troops who were killed.

“Operation TOP NUNN is postponed. We will have more to share about the event soon, and all ticket holders will be notified of the new date,” Nunn said. “Our prayers are with the families and our action is with our troops on the frontlines.”

Nunn said he plans to attend the arrival of the remains of the six soldiers at Dover Air Force Base on Saturday along with President Donald Trump.

Nunn paid his respects to the six soldiers in a speech on the House floor Thursday and led a moment of silence.

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Markwayne Mullin faces a straightforward path to confirmation as DHS secretary

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In replacing ousted Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Donald Trump is opting for one of the more reliable strategies to guarantee a quick Senate confirmation — nominating a senator.

Trump’s choice of Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma sets up a relatively straightforward process, with some Senate Democrats already indicating they are open to voting for him.

“We’ve been successful at whipping everybody the president has nominated, and I expect the same for Markwayne Mullin,” Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, the No. 2 Senate Republican, said Thursday.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune separately told reporters that he wanted to move Mullin’s nomination “quickly.” Trump did not indicate in his Truth Social post when he would send Mullin’s nomination to the Senate, but said he would take over “effective March 31.”

“He’s obviously pretty well-vetted around here, so hopefully we can get the process going,” Thune said.

Mullin thanked Trump for the nomination in a statement Thursday and said, “I look forward to earning the support of my colleagues in the Senate and carrying out President Trump’s mission alongside the department’s many capable agencies and the thousands of patriots who keep us safe every day.”

Noem was confirmed 59-34 by the Senate, but she lost the confidence of many of the lawmakers who voted to confirm her more than a year ago. Republican Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska both called on her to step down after DHS agents killed 37-year-old Alex Pretti in Minneapolis and she labeled him a “domestic terrorist” without evidence.

Both Tillis and Murkowski praised Mullin Thursday in the immediate wake of Trump’s announcement.

“He’s a man of his word. I think he’ll go in, get experts in there, and prove to be an executive with the right kind of skills, and get things squared away quickly,” Tillis said, adding that the decision was good for Trump’s “legacy.”

Tillis noted separately that Mullin “likes dogs,” an apparent reference to a story Noem included in her memoir about killing a misbehaving dog named Cricket.

Murkowski said she had a “great deal of respect” for Mullin.

“He has been a really good liaison between the Senate, actually the whole Congress, and the White House,” Murkowski said. “I’ve got strong respect for the guy, so I think he’ll do a good job

Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, a member of GOP leadership, acknowledged that Mullin’s nomination is unlikely to be unanimous, but he thought he would be treated “fairly” by his Senate colleagues.

It’s rare for current or former senators to see their nominations to administration posts derailed, but it has happened — most famously in 1989, when the Senate rejected John Tower’s nomination as Defense secretary amid charges of alcoholism and womanizing. More recently, Sens. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) and Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) withdrew their nominations under then-President Barack Obama in 2009.

Republicans can confirm any of Trump’s nominees on their own as long as most of their own members stay united. But they’ll get at least a little help: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said Thursday he will support Mullin’s nomination — a nod that could be especially important because he’s on the committee that must advance Mullin’s nomination to the full Senate.

Other Senate Democrats, including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, are telegraphing they will oppose Mullin as they also blockade DHS funding over the department’s aggressive immigration enforcement tactics.

“The Senate should not consider any DHS Secretary nominee until DHS and ICE are reined in,” Schumer wrote on X Thursday, saying he would vote against Mullin.

But other Democrats, including Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, left the door open to supporting the eventual nomination.

“I’m open to it, but he’s going to have to make real changes,” Coons said.

There is one potential pitfall: Mullin reportedly recently called Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), the chair of the DHS-overseeing committee, a “freaking snake.” Paul has broad latitude to schedule and advance the director’s nomination.

Spokespeople for Paul didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Mullin’s nomination.

Katherine Tully-McManus, Meredith Lee Hill and Calen Razor contributed to this report.

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