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Republicans confront the massive cost of Trump’s Middle East war

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Republicans on Capitol Hill are preparing to confront a staggering price tag for the war in the Middle East after closed-door briefings this week detailed the rapid consumption of expensive munitions and the lack of any firm deadline for the end of the military campaign.

Asked how much the Iran offensive would cost, House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) didn’t sugarcoat it.

“A lot,” he replied.

Senior Republicans privately expect President Donald Trump’s administration to request tens of billions of dollars for the Middle East conflict and other military needs from Congress in the coming days, with some GOP lawmakers hearing estimates that the Pentagon is spending as much as $2 billion a day on the war.

Three F-15E jets shot down by friendly fire in Kuwait are estimated to cost $100 million alone. But Trump officials in private briefings have declined to give lawmakers any specific numbers, according to six congressional Republicans granted anonymity to describe the internal discussions.

A White House request for supplemental funding could further balloon once it hits Capitol Hill, according to four other people with direct knowledge of the matter. Farm-state Republicans want an additional $15 billion in tariff relief for farmers, while others float adding tens of billions of dollars in wildfire aid to get enough Democratic support to pass the massive bill.

The prospect of a growing new spending measure has GOP leaders bracing for a messy internal fight, with fiscal hawks who have long decried “forever wars” and bloated Pentagon budgets deeply unsettled by some of the cost estimates flying around on Capitol Hill. At the very least, some are planning to demand offsetting spending cuts.

“I haven’t seen any specifics … but if it’s unpaid-for, I generally have an issue,” Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho) said.

Another House Republican granted anonymity to describe the conversations among GOP hard-liners said, “It’s not a ‘hell no,’ but it should be offset somehow.”

The topic is now looming over next week’s House Republican policy retreat, which kicks off Monday with a speech from Trump at the president’s resort in Doral, Florida. If the administration sends its formal funding request in the coming days, House GOP leaders will be forced to confront the issue head on.

At least some are expressing unqualified early support for any administration request. House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast (R-Fla.), for instance, said in an interview this week he is ready to support an emergency funding bill spending tens of billions of dollars on the Iran operation alone.

That sentiment could be challenged by the congressional Republicans who are privately wary of the open-ended timeline and shifting rationales for the war. One House Republican recently remarked that Trump’s pledge to do “whatever” it takes, including entertaining boots on the ground, sounded like “President Lyndon Johnson going into Vietnam.”

Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a vulnerable Pennsylvania Republican, noted that “as much as we need to neutralize their capabilities to continue to attack us, we do also need to make sure that we don’t get dragged into a forever war.”

Asked in an interview if Congress is ready to approve a $50 billion Pentagon funding package, Speaker Mike Johnson replied that he didn’t know the specific number yet but Congress would pass the bill “when it’s appropriate and get it right.”

“We’re waiting on the White House and [the Pentagon] to let us know, but we have an open dialogue about it,” Johnson said.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who is attuned to the spending concerns among the fiscal hawks inside the GOP ranks, demurred when asked about the potential for a $50 billion package.

“We’re still just in the first few days of this conflict, and there’s no ask yet from the Department of War for a supplemental,” Scalise said in an interview Wednesday.

He referenced the laborious talks ahead: “When that time comes, we’ll obviously have very serious conversations, because it’s important that the Department of War have the tools they need to keep America safe.”

A bigger potential headache is brewing for Johnson as members of his conference debate whether additional military funding should go in a much-discussed but long-shot budget reconciliation bill. That could move to Trump’s desk along party lines without Democratic support, but only if Republicans are almost completely unified.

House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said in an interview this week he expected the chamber to move forward on an initial emergency funding bill but that a second filibuster-skirting megabill could contain additional Pentagon spending, along with some possible offsetting cuts.

“It’s not just for the current conflict,” Arrington said. “There are things that need to be retooled fundamentally at the Defense Department, and the president’s team is making a really good case for that.”

Rep. Ralph Norman, one GOP hard-liner who has objected in the past to big Pentagon budgets, now says he would “absolutely” support a $50 billion bill without offsets.

“I don’t like it, but with what this president’s doing with income — the GDP is increasing, the money he’s bringing in for other investments — to handicap him on that, that’s a problem,” said Norman, who is running for South Carolina governor and seeking Trump’s support.

In the Senate, some GOP appropriators are cautioning that any war funding bill will be a big lift — and warning the administration to get specific, and fast.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a senior member of the Defense Appropriations subcommittee, said the “administration should not be taking anything for granted.”

“If they come to us at the end of the month and say, ‘This is what we want, and basically, deliver the votes’ … it’s not a winning strategy, in my view,” she said. “You’ve got to start making the case.”

Katherine Tully-McManus and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

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Congress

New York Republicans bet anger at Albany can blunt a Trump backlash

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ALBANY, New York — New York Republicans have a closing argument for voters unhappy with the cost of living: Blame the incumbent Democrats who run Albany.

President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity in his native state — made worse by high gas prices and a Canadian tariff war — has created a nightmare environment for the GOP in this deep blue state. Yet Republican candidates, strategists and former officeholders believe their party can leverage New Yorkers’ vexation with high taxes, housing costs and skyrocketing utility bills to offset the midterm agony their party is poised to suffer on Tuesday.

Gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman’s final TV ad warns voters that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s reelection will result in a tax hike at the behest of her political ally, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. On the trail, he blasts the sharp increase in energy costs and pledges to reverse the state’s 12-year-old ban on natural gas drilling along the Pennsylvania border. And he’s pledging to bolster public safety by repealing a package of criminal justice law changes.

Republicans hope those attacks will offset Democrats’ efforts to make the election a referendum on Trump. GOP candidates running in down-ballot House and state legislative contests have used Hochul as a foil — a reflection of her middling poll numbers for much of the year.

Rep. Mike Lawler, running in a district Trump lost by one point two years ago, has gleefully tied Democrats to Hochul.

“If Democrats in New York complain about affordability, we have the highest state taxes in the country, income and property taxes. We have chronically poor educational performance. We have a housing market that’s stultified,” said former Rep. John Faso, a Republican who ran for governor in 2006. “Since the Democrats have been running New York state at the statewide level for many years — it’s hard to blame all of that on Donald Trump.”

Hochul’s campaign insists New York voters will positively affirm her five years in office.


“From the beginning, this race has been about records: Governor Hochul has put money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, invested $4 billion in public safety, and fought back against Trump’s attacks – all Bruce Blakeman has done is raise taxes, stick his neck out for ICE, and defend everything Trump does,” Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said in a statement. “New Yorkers don’t want that and they never have.”


The rhetoric reflects a broader bet about voters’ collective mood in an intensely disruptive political era and is a test of whether increasingly nationalized elections can still hinge on local concerns. Skyrocketing gas and grocery costs, along with the perception among younger people that their generation will not be as financially secure as their parents, has fueled insurgent primary candidates’ successful bids against their establishment foes.

New York Republicans are making this anti-incumbent case eight years after Democrats won the state Senate, giving them control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s office. GOP officials contend that Democratic control in Albany has made the Empire State less safe and more expensive. They hope the argument will appeal to swing voters, including the growing number of people who aren’t enrolled in a party, and disaffected Democrats concerned with the party’s leftward lurch — especially after Mamdani’s election.

The stakes for Republicans extend beyond Blakeman’s longshot bid for governor. The GOP is trying to retain control of the closely divided House, and New York is home to several swing districts.

Republicans are fretting about the political fate of Lawler, who occupies one of those swing seats. They are also nervously watching the outcome of a race for a deep red House seat being vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik — an election that was never expected to be competitive.

Polls have shown their entire statewide ticket, which is led by Blakeman and includes state attorney general and comptroller candidates, down by double digits against the incumbent Democrats. One survey also showed the limits of both candidates’ affordability pitches: 35% of likely voters said neither would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers, compared with 30% who chose Hochul and 27% who chose Blakeman.

Voters across the country are enraged by the cost of living, and Hochul’s allies expect they will take it out on Trump.

“When you have a level of anger at the government or life, sometimes that spills out on people who aren’t to blame,” said Democratic former New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn. “But in New York as it relates to Gov. Hochul, that misplaced anger is easily dispelled when voters are reminded of everything she’s gotten done.”

Some Republicans acknowledge that voters may be in a sour enough mood to reject GOP incumbents like Lawler along with Democrats. That’s added another layer of uncertainty for a party that’s desperate to regain statewide relevance.

“This is the craziest and weirdest election cycle that I’ve ever seen,” said Chris Tague, a state lawmaker and local GOP party chair. “It’s been very tough to gauge what’s going to happen on Tuesday night.”

Republicans are nevertheless trying to find ways of returning to power by casting this midterm fight as a change election.

GOP state attorney general candidate Saritha Komatireddy, running against two-term Democrat Letitia James, has framed her race entirely around public safety as her campaign makes an overt appeal to voters across the political spectrum concerned with crime.

“New Yorkers are tired of the way things are going,” Komatireddy said. “They understand things are going in the wrong direction. They want change.”

The state’s notoriety for high taxes has also given Republicans ammunition.

Blakeman has warned that Hochul’s second term will include the tax hikes being sought by Mamdani, her democratic socialist ally in City Hall. The mayor and his political base — which Hochul needs to run up the score in the five boroughs — are expected to pressure the governor next year to raise income tax rates on rich people and large corporations. Hochul has insisted Mamdani’s campaigning for her is not linked to a promise to back an increase.

In one of his final TV spots, Blakeman’s campaign contends Hochul is to blame for voters’ affordability woes.

“Kathy Hochul made New York unaffordable — taxing paychecks, toll and fare hikes. The nation’s highest taxes,” the ad’s narrator says.

While Hochul has not definitively ruled out a tax increase next year, the Republican nominee has proposed eliminating taxes for most New Yorkers — though he has not spelled out the details.

A party that in the 1990s simultaneously held the governor’s mansion, New York City Hall and a U.S. Senate seat has witnessed its power rapidly erode this century. A New York Republican last won a statewide race in 2002, when George Pataki secured a third term. Trump’s first midterm in 2018 saw the final toehold of GOP power erased when the party lost the state Senate.

Republicans have seen their statewide enrollment steadily dwindle as well, with more voters now registered as independents. Redoubts of Republican power are confined to some upstate counties and on bellwether Long Island, where Blakeman is a top official.

Four years ago, then-Rep. Lee Zeldin made it within 6 points of unseating Hochul — the closest a Republican has come in a gubernatorial election since the GOP’s losing streak began in 2006.

Even that race highlighted the difficulty of a GOP victory in New York. Hochul had taken office only a year earlier and was not as well known as her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo. Democratic President Joe Biden’s popularity was starting to wane. And Republicans benefitted from the deep pockets of cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder, who funded a super PAC to boost their nominee.

Zeldin still lost. And Hochul has used the race as an example of how her party can’t take anything for granted.

“We have major pockets of truly MAGA Republicans,” she told podcaster Ben Max recently. “It’s a much more purple state than people would think.”

Still, Democrats have enjoyed the trappings of incumbency that make it difficult for Republicans to break through as New York’s political establishment remains behind Hochul.

The governor, a powerhouse fundraiser, has handily outspent Blakeman on advertising by more than $10 million, according to data from the ad tracking firm AdImpact. New York’s deep-pocketed private sector — including business leaders who need a powerful governor on their side in Albany — have largely stuck with Hochul. Labor organizations that once endorsed incumbent Republicans like Pataki are firmly within her camp.

“They play a role in this,” said New York Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar. “They definitely play a role in keeping incumbents in.”

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Chris Murphy is hospitalized after stroke

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Sen. Chris Murphy is being hospitalized following a stroke, an aide to the Connecticut Democrat said Sunday.

“Yesterday afternoon, Senator Murphy started experiencing numbness in his arm while at his son’s hockey game. He was taken to a local hospital, where it was discovered he had experienced a stroke,” Allison Herwitt, Murphy’s chief of staff, said in a statement.

“He was transferred to Johns Hopkins for further monitoring and is responding well to treatment. The doctors are encouraged by his progress, he is awake and alert, and we are optimistic he will make a full recovery,” she added.

Murphy, who is viewed as a potential 2028 White House candidate, has been traveling the country to campaign for candidates, including recent stops in Michigan, Minnesota and Florida. He had been previously scheduled to attend campaign events in New Hampshire on Sunday.

His staff began notifying people Saturday afternoon of the hospitalization and stroke, a person told Blue Light News at the time.

Murphy is the latest lawmaker to face public health issues while in office. Former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was hospitalized earlier this year and absent from the Capitol for months. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.) also had an unexplained monthslong absence that he later said was due to depression.

Murphy is one of several sitting senators who have experienced strokes in recent years.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said in 2022 that he had been hospitalized by a minor stroke. Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) was also hospitalized that same year for a stroke. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), then a Senate candidate, also had a stroke in 2022 that he later described as near fatal. Then-Sen. Mark Kirk, a Republican of Illinois, suffered a stroke in 2012.

Murphy joined the Senate in 2013 and quickly became a leading advocate within the chamber on stricter gun regulation laws after the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting occurred just weeks after he won his 2012 Senate race. Murphy held the Senate floor for nearly 15 hours in 2016 to demand stricter gun laws.

Murphy’s also been a prominent figure within the Senate Democratic caucus on foreign policy. More recently, he’s urged his party to be more aggressive in its strategies for checking President Donald Trump. Murphy warned at a Middle East Institute event last week that Trump could try to restart the Iran war after the election. He’s also a junior member of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s leadership team.

Before joining the Senate, Murphy spent six years in the House.

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‘Look what I brought home for you’: GOP embraces earmark revival as Election Day looms

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With voters sour on Republican governance, GOP candidates in the most competitive House and Senate races are reaching for a time-tested message that has grown out of fashion in their party: bringing home the federal bacon.

A Blue Light News analysis of the dozen closest congressional races for Republican incumbents revealed that most are highlighting earmark success stories in the final days before voters head to the polls.

The ability to secure federal funding for pet projects back home — something many in the GOP have spent years trying to curtail — has given those candidates a positive talking point as President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings and widespread voter dissatisfaction over issues like the Iran war, high gas prices and tariffs weigh on other messages.

“When the president’s job approval is in the 30s, it is helpful for Republican candidates to be able to create some distance from the president. It’s challenging to do that without encouraging the president’s wrath,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said in an interview. “But focusing on bringing home the bacon might be one very good way to do it without antagonizing the president.”

In Michigan, Rep. Tom Barrett is out with an ad about a $750,000 earmark for youth mentoring; in New York, Rep. Mike Lawler is talking about how he secured $120 million for local projects.

Rep. Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania is telling voters he has “brought back more than $110 million to our community,” including millions in earmarks, while Rep. David Valadao has run ads showcasing $500 million in earmarks for water projects in California’s Central Valley.

Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, a GOP moderate seeking to project independence from Trump in a competitive contest, has repeatedly touted the exact count of the earmarks she has locked in over the last half-decade for her home state of Maine.

The sum: 672 projects totaling $1.5 billion, “from Madawaska to Kittery, from Eastport to Rumford,” as she said in her opening statement earlier this month in her first debate against Democrat Troy Jackson. This past week, Collins has peppered voters with county-specific text messages detailing how much she’s secured for each area.

There are countless other examples of earmark campaigning among vulnerable Republican incumbents, though many conservatives remain reluctant to associate themselves with the practice. It still carries a stigma of corruption after two Republicans were sent to prison on related bribery charges in the mid-2000s, paving the way for the GOP to do away with earmarks in 2011.

That left GOP candidates unable to play up the clearest spoils of incumbency ahead of the “blue wave” of 2018. But Democrats revived them in 2021 with new safeguards, and now Republicans are taking advantage as they navigate another tough midterm cycle.

“That word ‘earmark’ can carry some negative baggage, especially among the old fiscal conservatives,” nonpartisan pollster Mike Noble said in an interview. “But when you describe that same expenditure as funding for a local water system, highway, public safety project — voters evaluate that differently.”

Recognizing the advantages, Republicans opted to keep earmarks around under unified party leadership in 2025, resulting in the enactment of almost $16 billion worth of earmarks this year. For those who still consider earmarks anathema to the GOP’s values of fiscal restraint, it’s causing complications on the trail.

Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga of Michigan is fielding criticism for not requesting any earmarks for his district. While he airs ads calling himself “tight with a buck,” his opponents are telling voters that lawmakers like Huizenga are increasing their net worth “while turning down community project funding.”

Some recent polling shows Huizenga trailing his Democratic challenger, state Sen. Sean McCann, by 1 percentage point.

McCann said in an interview he will “go to bat” for earmarks if he defeats Huizenga: “That’s an expectation that people have when you want to represent them — that you do the things that are important and secure crucial investments for the district.”

Huizenga defended himself in a statement, saying “earmarks have a long history of waste and abuse by politicians looking to enrich themselves in office.”

Huizenga noted that he has “helped secure hundreds of millions in federal investments for Southwest Michigan without requesting a single earmark,” including a $400 million grant last year for a nuclear power plant and $51 million for a housing redevelopment project.

He isn’t the only Republican incumbent in a tight race who has foregone earmarks. Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is facing a competitive challenge from former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, refused to request cash for district-specific projects as part of the annual government funding process. Instead, he points to his support for efforts made possible through the 2021 infrastructure law signed by then-President Joe Biden, as well as other legislation and grants the Trump administration doles out for local efforts.

Trump officials have traveled to Alaska in recent weeks to stand alongside Sullivan in announcing the delivery of hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding for the state, including $38 million in energy grants and $250 million for rail infrastructure.

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who appears to be in a dead heat with his Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, also didn’t ask for any federal funding this year. But he is getting flak for seeking a $4.2 million earmark in 2024 to finance improvements to increase water to a wildlife refuge that borders his ranch.

Spokespeople for the Sullivan and Marshall campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.

Whether voters perceive earmark requests as positive or negative likely depends heavily on how a candidate frames the talking point, Noble said, acknowledging that incumbents rarely use the word in campaign ads or town hall speeches and instead speak broadly about how they “deliver” for their district.

“Voters, at the end of the day — it’s about direct benefit. What are they getting out of this deal? That’s one of the powers of incumbency. They have that ability to say, ‘Hey, look what I brought home for you,’” he said. “But again, what else are they going to talk about?”

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