Congress
He’s facing very long odds. So why are New York Republicans betting on Bruce Blakeman?
ALBANY, New York — Empire State Republicans expect Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman to turbo charge down-ballot turnout as their party’s gubernatorial nominee — boosting GOP candidates in crucial suburban swing races as he mounts an otherwise uphill battle to unseat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.
If Blakeman falls short in an underdog bid, New York Republicans can still be successful in what’s shaping up to be a tough political environment.
“Blakeman’s top appeal for Republicans, particularly in swing suburbs, can be realized even if he loses,” said Larry Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. “He could help them on Long Island, Westchester and the Hudson Valley to possibly win seats that could make a difference on which party controls the gavels in Congress. Blakeman is in a position to do that.”
Who leads the Republican ticket in this deep blue state will have critical implications for competitive House races that stand to determine which party will control the narrowly divided chamber and the course of President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. Blakeman’s coattails offer one possible remedy to GOP headwinds in next year’s midterm elections, as Democrats seize on affordability issues and stoke their base’s anger at the sitting president’s policies.
Blakeman, 70, is now the likely Republican nominee for governor after Rep. Elise Stefanik abruptly suspended her campaign last week. Stefanik and Blakeman are both Trump allies, and the 41-year-old upstate New York House member is far better known statewide.
Unlike Stefanik, Blakeman hails from a vote rich political bellwether in a state that’s otherwise dominated by Democrats. He is a self-described “pro-choice” Republican — a stance that will likely attract some independent and conservative Democratic voters. And he has cultivated a mutually beneficial relationship with The New York Post, the influential conservative tabloid that’s part of Trump’s media diet.
His bid is still considered a longshot against Hochul, who led Blakeman by 25 points in a Siena University poll this month. He remains largely unknown to most New Yorkers, and Republicans are trying to reverse a 23-year losing streak in statewide elections. Blakeman’s prior statewide bid for a U.S. Senate seat ended with a loss.
In an interview, Blakeman pointed to his ability to win in a large, diverse suburban county as a sign that he can be successful statewide.
“I want our congressional and Senate and Assembly and local candidates to be successful as well,” he said. “If you look at the demographics of Nassau County, we match the state almost as a mirror image. I feel very confident we’re going to win.”
New York Republicans know the power the top of their party’s ticket can wield in a midterm election. Then-Rep. Lee Zeldin’s 2022 campaign came within 6 points of defeating Hochul, but the Long Islander’s strong suburban showing was credited with helping sweep several House Republicans into office. GOP leaders are poised to replicate that plan in 2026 — a doubling down on a suburban strategy that will also tie all Democrats, including Hochul, to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.
Republicans want to cast the 34-year-old democratic socialist as a lightning rod. Blakeman, whose day-to-day movements are covered in the Big Apple’s media market, would have easy access to blast the left-leaning mayor’s policies.
The most immediate impact may be on the Long Island districts led by moderate Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen — both of which will be top GOP targets.
“It’s definitely going to put those two Nassau seats, Suozzi and Gillen seats into play,” said Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar. “I already thought the Gillen seat would be a top seat in the nation. Suozzi has a number of solid candidates nipping at his toes there to begin with. If I was residing in Nassau County and looking for some very positive results in 2026, I think I just hit the jackpot.”
Suozzi and Gillen campaign representatives pointed to their work with Republicans and ability to win swing seats regardless of the top of the ticket.
“Everyone knows that Tom Suozzi works across the aisle in Congress to take on the affordability crisis, lower healthcare costs, fix the immigration mess and keep our communities safe,” said Kim Devlin, a Suozzi senior advisor. “That’s why he was able to win his district, even while Trump won it as well. People are sick of partisanship and that’s why they will re-elect Tom Suozzi.”
The Gillen campaign offered a similar assessment, noting that she “has a proven record of embracing bipartisanship to achieve results to lower the costs of living and improve public safety.”
“In fact, Bruce Blakeman endorsed her and served as her deputy Supervisor,” a campaign spokesperson said. “Her moderate approach, that prioritizes Long Islanders over politics, is why Rep. Gillen will be re-elected in November.”
Democrats have dominated New York statewide elections since George Pataki left office in 2006. The party lost its final toehold on power in Albany after losing control of the state Senate in 2018. But Republicans continue to maintain competitive races in suburban enclaves, where voters are sensitive to high taxes and concerned about public safety.
“You’re always more likely to lose than win as a Republican in New York, but I think he’s going to be our strongest statewide candidate since George Pataki,” said Republican operative Chapin Fay. “He’s winning in a blue area and he’s sort of MAGA without a lot of the baggage.”
Ensuring success in down-ballot races will be paramount for local Republican leaders with many municipal races switching from low-turnout odd-years to even-numbered years, when more people are expected to vote. That means races for GOP-held seats on some town and village boards and county legislatures may take on a more competitive tilt — threatening Republican power on the local level.
In Nassau County, where Blakeman has served as the top elected official since his 2021 victory, Republicans maintain a robust political operation led by Chair Joe Cairo. Despite widespread GOP losses last month, Nassau County Republican candidates overperformed, Blue Light News reported. Those results underscore the potential strength of Cairo’s voter turnout effort.
“To me, it’s a good strategy,” said Assemblymember Ed Ra, a Nassau County Republican. “It helps when we have a couple of House races that we think are going to be very competitive. For us in the Legislature, we think having a suburban, well-known, well-liked candidate is going to be a positive.”
Long Island is a major prize for any statewide candidate — and the suburbs have been trending Republican this decade with voters activated by concerns over crime and Democratic-backed criminal justice reforms.
New York Democrats acknowledge Blakeman’s strength in Nassau County in particular will present a challenge for down-ballot candidates.
“He will have an organization working for him in Nassau County,” said Jay Jacobs, who serves as both the statewide Democratic Committee chair and the Nassau County Democratic leader. “But I would say that while it certainly will be a factor that we have to take into account in those congressional races and down-ballot races, he likes to tout his great win and his perceived popularity, but we don’t see it that way and our polling doesn’t show it that way.”
Hochul, a Buffalo native, has struggled in the New York City suburbs.
The governor and Jacobs publicly disagreed over supporting Mamdani’s candidacy as her hand-picked party chair moved to distance suburban Democrats from the incoming mayor. She lost Nassau and Suffolk counties to Zeldin three years ago. Hochul was also forced to retool a controversial home building and zoning proposal amid a bipartisan revolt on Long Island.
Hochul on Monday pointed to her efforts addressing crime, housing and jobs on Long Island.
“We will do very well on Long Island,” she predicted. “I’ve spent an enormous amount of time on Long Island.”
Blakeman’s political vulnerabilities may still complicate matters for Republicans. A liberal stance on abortion is unnerving conservative voters the party can’t afford to have stay home. Upstate Republicans, slighted by yet another New York City-area nominee, will have to be won over. Trump’s unpopularity in his native state is also expected to work against Blakeman, who was endorsed by the president over the weekend.
Hochul, too, is expected to be a more formidable incumbent than she was three years ago when she was still a rookie governor and running in a backlash year for her party. The Democratic governor is a formidable fundraiser and she has also worked to build up the state Democrats’ political infrastructure to buttress vulnerable candidates running below her on the ballot.
Her campaign moved swiftly to define Blakeman, who remains unknown to 70 percent of voters, the Siena poll found, saying Blakeman “has gone all-in on Donald Trump’s deeply unpopular MAGA movement.” And Hochul questioned whether he ultimately would be the nominee.
“The Republican Party is in such chaos, I’m not even sure he’s going to end up being the nominee. This changes by the hour,” Hochul told Blue Light News at a news conference. “I’m not going to speculate about the prospective opposition, other than knowing it’s going to be a MAGA, Trump-endorsed Republican.”
Bill Mahoney contributed to this report.
Congress
Rep. Salazar touts Venezuela’s Machado before her visit
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar on Sunday said Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has “earned” enough to receive President Donald Trump’s backing as the South American country recovers from the capture of Nicolas Maduro.
“She proved to the international community that they, the opposition forces, had won the election,” the Florida Republican told CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
Salazar, who said she was in contact with Machado during the time she was in hiding during Maduro’s rule, added that Trump will be ”highly, highly pleased” with Machado when she visits Washington this week.
“I am sure that she will have a very good, long, solid conversation with the President,” Salazar said. “I think we are going to welcome her in Congress, and I’m sure that President Trump is going to be highly, highly pleased with that meeting.
Salazar’s optimism comes as the organization that oversees the Nobel Peace Prize announced Machado cannot give her recent award to Trump.
Machado won the prestigious prize in October, and quickly dedicated the award to the president. Trump had repeatedly expressed his desire to be awarded the prize, particularly in light of his work to end the Israel-Hamas war and other conflicts.
Trump declined to endorse Machado as the nation’s new leader in the wake of the raid that netted Maduro and left Venezuela at least temporarily leaderless. But Salazar on Sunday said Machado “is part of the transition” in Venezuela now that Maduro is no longer in power — a sharp difference from Trump’s previous statements that the U.S. will run Venezuela.
Salazar said there are things that the U.S. may not know about what is happening in Venezuela under Maduro’s allies, Delcy Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello.
Still, her optimism continued as she said she is confident American prisoners will soon be released.
“We do not want to make any mistakes and I am sure that the political prisoners will be coming out and that we’re not giving them, meaning Diosdado and Delcy, any type of leeway for them to really run the country,” said Salazar. “We will see. I happened two, three weeks ago. Let’s give them a little bit more time before we see more results.”
Congress
Rand Paul: Bombing Iran ‘is not the answer’
Sen. Rand Paul expressed concerns Sunday over President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran as the Middle Eastern country sees widespread protests continue.
Speaking with ABC’s “This Week,” the Kentucky Republican said he is not sure striking Iran “will have the effects intended.”
“We wish freedom and liberation the best around the world, but I don’t think it’s the job of the American government to be involved with every freedom movement around the world,” Paul said.
Paul also expressed concerns over how the administration would distinguish between Iranian protesters and law enforcement if Trump were to approve military action in the region.
“How do you drop a bomb in the middle of a crowd or a protest and protect the people there?” Paul said. “Plus there’s the constitution that we don’t let presidents bomb countries when they feel like it. They are supposed to ask the people through the Congress for permission.”
Protests erupted in the Islamic Republic late last month as Iranians expressed dissatisfaction over the country’s economic free fall. But as demonstrations have continued, many have begun to demand total regime change.
Reports indicate thousands have been arrested, and agencies have been unable to confirm the total death toll due to an internet blackout as the regime works to quell the dissent. The latest Associated Press report put the figure as at least 538.
Trump on Friday warned Iranian leaders, “You better not start shooting, because we’ll start shooting, too.” And an a post to Truth Social on Saturday, the president wrote that “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!”
But Paul on Sunday said that U.S. involvement may unintentionally rally protesters behind the Ayatollah.
“If you bomb the government, do you then rally people to their flag who are upset with the Ayatollah but then say, gosh, we can’t have a foreign government invading or bombing our country?” Paul said. “It tends to have people rally to the cause.”
He added that the protests are justifiable.
“The best way is to encourage them and say, we would recognize a government that is a freedom-loving government, that allows free elections, but bombing is not the answer,” Paul said.
Congress
How John Thune is trying to save the Senate for Republicans
McALLEN, Texas — John Thune is ramping up his sales pitch as he tries to turn the GOP’s attention toward November and keeping the Senate majority.
But as the majority leader campaigned along the U.S.-Mexico border Friday with a coalition of Republicans up for reelection this year, he acknowledged challenges so far in promoting the legislative centerpiece of the party’s message — not to mention what he called the midterm “headwinds” facing any party in power.
Thune is betting that an aggressive campaign blitz between now and the fall, and a hopefully burgeoning economy, will help Republicans keep and potentially grow their 53-seat majority — even as voters seem indifferent about the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” and President Donald Trump struggles in sticking to a kitchen-table script.
Having Republicans back home touting the party line, Thune said, will help.
“Last year, our members were in many cases, for obvious reasons, in Washington, trying to get the job done,” Thune said in an interview. “But now that we’re in an even-numbered year and people are out running for reelection, I think having us as a body focus very directly on the message that we’re delivering to the American people is going to make a big difference.”
He also acknowledged that Democrats leapt out of the gate last year in hammering the GOP megabill even before it was finished, adding that “they have the advantage of being the opposition party.”
On Friday, Thune & Co. attempted to turn the tide by highlighting the border security resources that were included in the sprawling policy package that also included tax cuts, defense spending and energy initiatives, among other legislative potpourri.
Republicans started out the 2026 cycle as odds-on favorites for keeping control of the Senate. They still have an edge, according to most forecasters. But Democrats have made a dent in the GOP’s advantage by securing big-name recruits in key races as Republicans face some heated and costly intraparty primaries.
Success will depend in large part on the Republicans who joined Thune Friday in Texas. Michael Whatley, who is running to succeed North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, and former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is looking to flip the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan, joined several in-cycle GOP incumbents, including Texas Sen. John Cornyn.
Thune showered particular praise on Cornyn, who is fighting for his political life in a three-way primary. Underscoring the nasty internal fight facing the GOP, rival Ken Paxton — the state attorney general and one of Cornyn’s primary opponents — accused Cornyn of trying to “rewrite history” with the border trip and predicted that his career will end in “national embarrassment.”
Thune’s effort to use his bully pulpit to focus on the party’s legislative accomplishments comes as Republicans continue to fret that they haven’t done enough to sell the megabill. Many wonder in hindsight whether their decision to pack so many priorities together into a single piece of legislation — a decision driven in part by the party-line budget reconciliation process — was ill-conceived.
“We’ve talked about that,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said in an interview Friday on the sidelines of a news conference at the border wall where it took four placards to display all the highlights from the megabill.
“Secure Border, More Money, New Opportunities,” read a sign on the podium summarizing the legislation.
But an overstuffed domestic policy bill is far from the top concern for Republicans who remain nervous about addressing Americans’ anxieties about the steeply rising cost of living.
While many GOP leaders spent the final months of 2025 vowing to focus on affordability issues — and Thune vowed Friday Republicans would in 2026 — the opening days of the year have been focused abroad after Trump ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The military action sparked a fiery debate in Congress about presidential war powers that threaten to blot out other matters.
“It’s certainly going to consume the news cycle for a while,” said Sen. John Hoeven of North Dakota in an interview in the Capitol this week.
It certainly has preoccupied Trump, who lashed out at five Senate Republicans who joined with Democrats Thursday to advance a measure constraining his future military moves in Venezuela. One of them, Susan Collins of Maine, is up for reelection, and Trump announced publicly that she and the other four “should never be elected to office again.”
Thune said he had a “very spirited” conversation with Trump before he delivered the attacks and acknowledged his frustrations. But Thune said he was focused on keeping Republicans “united as much as possible and work[ing] with the president.”

The two are viewed as having a good personal relationship, with Trump publicly praising Thune throughout 2025 — a transformation from just a few years before, when Trump threatened to back a primary challenger against the South Dakotan. Thune, in turn, repeatedly praised Trump and his work on the border Friday.
That doesn’t mean they don’t have their differences. Thune, with the backing of his conference, has rebuffed Trump’s demands to nix the filibuster and other Senate norms that preserve minority power. They have also clashed on policy — most conspicuously on the president’s aggressive use of tariffs which have negatively impacted farmers in Thune’s home state.
Thune acknowledged they sometimes don’t see eye-to-eye but added he views his job as needing to “protect the institution … maintain it as the founders intended as a check and balance.”
Thune reiterated Friday that he’s labored to hash out most of those differences behind the scenes, seeking to avoid any public blowups that would suck up political oxygen and potentially force his members to choose sides.
That said, he added, “there are times, yes, where you have to push back” — pointing back to the conversation on the war powers resolution, which Thune opposed.
Pushing back could be trickier in an election year, when Republicans need to be in lockstep as they make their case for another two years in power on Capitol Hill while Trump seeks to lock in a presidential legacy and otherwise enforce his will over the party.
Beyond dealing with Trump’s angry outburst, Thune is trying to keep the party — and the president — singing from the same hymnal heading into November.
“Obviously, yesterday he was frustrated, but I think there’s going to be a lot to point to in terms of a record of accomplishment for him and for him working with us,” Thune said of Trump. “As we get out there and talk about it, I think it’ll start to change the perceptions and the views in the public.”
Alex Gangitano contributed to this report.
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