Politics

Graham Platner just dropped out. Here’s who could replace him.

Published

3 months ago

July 9, 2026

Graham Platner just dropped out of Maine’s Senate race. Some Democrats have already said they want to replace him.

A POLITICO report of a new sexual allegation against Platner on Monday set off a scramble among Maine Democrats, as they pressured the candidate to step down and weighed who could take his place to defeat GOP Sen. Susan Collins, the only Republican running in a state won by Kamala Harris this cycle. The party has long held that winning the Maine Senate race will be critical to retaking control of the upper chamber.

The steady loss of support and financial backing for Platner’s campaign — which denied the allegation — gave several progressives an opening to start their preparations.

Some, like former Senate President Troy Jackson, were more explicit than others, setting up joint fundraising committees before Platner dropped out. Others, including Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, said they would “seriously consider” entering the race if Platner suspended his campaign. Meanwhile, a few possible candidates, including Rep. Jared Golden, Maine Senate President Mattie Daughtry and actor Patrick Dempsey (yes, really) have ruled themselves out.

Now, jockeying for the nomination is expected to accelerate, with less than four months until Election Day.

State law gives the Maine Democratic Party the authority to replace Platner, and mandates that his successor must be chosen by July 27. On Wednesday, just before Platner suspended his campaign, the Maine Democratic Party approved tentative plans for a nominating convention to pick his successor.

Here’s where things stand.

Officially running

Troy Jackson

Jackson, who was a Platner ally before calling on him to step aside Monday, swiftly launched his Senate bid after Platner suspended his campaign.

“I’m in. And we’re going to defeat Susan Collins,” Jackson wrote in a post on X. “Maine deserves a Senator that will fight for working families.”

Jackson was widely speculated to jump into the race and had filed his interest in a bid with the Federal Election Commission before Wednesday.

Graham Platner and Troy Jackson stand together during a “Fighting Oligarchy” tour stop on May 24, 2026, in Orono, Maine.

A logger with long ties to organized labor, he’s quickly attracted attention from many of the oysterman’s progressive supporters. Our Revolution, a progressive organization founded by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), has already thrown its support behind Jackson.

But already, some votes from his 20-year history in the legislature are resurfacing, such as his 2009 state Senate vote against a bill to legalize same-sex marriage, giving Platner’s base a bit of pause. He later called that the “worst vote I ever took.” His closeness to Platner during the primary may also give pause to some Democrats as they choose their next nominee.

Still, as one of a number of Democrats who just lost the primary for governor, Jackson has the benefit of being able to quickly rebuild his campaign.

Dan Kleban

Kleban also announced his bid Wednesday. The 49-year-old founder of Maine Beer Company had dropped out of the Democratic Senate primary earlier this year and threw his weight behind establishment-backed Gov. Janet Mills.

“Mainers deserve a senator who will fight for them against the D.C. establishment while also doing what’s right,” Kleban said in a statement. “I plan to be that senator.”

While Kleban hasn’t served in public office, he has long been involved in Maine Democratic circles.

Considering running

Nirav Shah

Shah, a former public health official, is “evaluating” whether he will mount a Senate bid, he told POLITICO Tuesday afternoon. But he was already positioning himself as a candidate before Platner’s announcement.

He called for an open process on Tuesday, including at least one televised debate, and multiple public town halls across Maine.

Shah oversaw the state’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic. He mounted his first run for public office earlier this year, finishing second in Maine’s gubernatorial primary. He said in an interview that he is “very, very much aligned” with Platner’s politics.

Shenna Bellows

In a statement on Tuesday, the Maine Secretary of State said she would “seriously consider entering this race, because I believe I am uniquely fit to unite Mainers and defeat Susan Collins in just over 100 days.”

Bellows, who also ran unsuccessfully for governor, has been fielding calls about a potential run, according to a person familiar with her campaign, granted anonymity to speak about private conversations. The person pointed to her ideological alignment with Platner on progressive issues and compelling biography — she grew up poor in rural Maine and flipped a GOP-held state Senate district — providing an early glimpse of part of her pitch if she decides to enter the race.

Bellows previously ran for Senate and lost badly to Collins in 2014. She will need to prove to voters that she can win this time around, given her past defeat.

Jordan Wood

Wood is another former Senate candidate, but he switched to run for the state’s 2nd District after Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) decided he wouldn’t attempt reelection. Wood finished third in that race with state Auditor Matt Dunlap winning the nomination after a ranked-choice count.

“To beat Susan Collins, we need a candidate who can provide a true contrast and run an unapologetically progressive campaign: Passing Medicare for All. Stopping ICE terrorizing our streets. Standing up to Donald Trump’s abuse of power,” Wood wrote on X on Tuesday, saying he was “continuing conversations with voters across Maine if I should enter an open Senate race.”

A former staffer of former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), Wood may have trouble courting Platner supporters who want someone from outside of D.C. But he posted solid fundraising during his House run and has worked hard to keep his name in the fold.

Paige Loud

Loud also ran for Congress in the 2nd District, coming in last during the first round of voting.. She quickly filed interest paperwork with the FEC on Tuesday to succeed Platner.

“I don’t think we should be electing a man,” Loud, who also held an unpaid role on Platner’s campaign before leaving earlier this year, said in an interview. “I think I’m tired of making women vote for a man.”

Valli Geiger

People close to Platner have been quick to mention Geiger — a member of the state House and top ally of the oysterman — as a potential successor. But Wednesday brought some drama on whether she’d have Platner’s blessing.

Geiger told a Maine local outlet that Platner said he was throwing his support behind her. The Platner campaign then said that no such commitment was made.

Geiger did not respond to Blue Light News’s phone call and subsequent text message on Wednesday.

In an interview with MSNOW, Geiger said she’d taken calls about running for Senate and that she would be willing to run. But the 70-year-old state representative said a younger candidate would be better.

Andrea LaFlamme

LaFlamme was a write-in candidate during the Democratic Senate primary, receiving just over 1,000 votes. On Tuesday, she said she believes she is the “best person to take on Susan Collins” in a post on Bluesky.

LaFlamme initially launched her write-in bid because of Platner’s earlier controversies, telling the student paper of the college she works for that electing Platner “sends the message that women are not valued.” Given the fate of her write-in campaign, and the number of well-known Democrats already running, it’s unlikely she will ultimately take on Collins.

Some names to watch

Chellie Pingree

Pingree is a longtime member of Congress serving Maine’s safe-blue 1st District. Her bid is more of a long shot, given the party would also have to replace her on the ballot — thus kicking off another rush of names — but her reputation as a longtime party leader could put her in contention. Her daughter Hannah is already the Democratic nominee for governor, as well.

Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine).

“Mainers deserve a nominee they can trust, a campaign focused on the challenges facing our state and our country, and a Democratic Party that responds to allegations of sexual assault with clarity, compassion, and accountability,” Pingree said in a statement Monday, calling on Platner to step down.

Ryan Fecteau

Fecteau is the youngest person to ever become Maine’s state House Speaker.

He joined other Maine Democrats in pushing Platner to exit the race, saying Blue Light News’s report “make[s] it clear that Graham’s campaign cannot be successful” in a post to Facebook.

Sara Gideon

After a failed run against Collins in 2020, Gideon has maintained a relatively low public profile. But she lands a spot on this list regardless — mostly because her campaign is still sitting on $2.4 million, which was noted in a required FEC report that was filed on Wednesday.

Alec Hernández and Jessica Piper contributed to this report.

Politics

‘A warning sign for polling’: Why one GOP pollster thinks a blue wave may fall short

Published

35 minutes ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Democrats are salivating over, and Republicans are bracing for, a potentially massive blue wave. One GOP pollster is urging everyone to calm down.

Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at Echelon Insights, has been loudly throwing cold water on Democrats’ hopes of sweeping the red state Senate seats that have become battlegrounds in a worsening national environment for Republicans.

“The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground,” Ruffini told Blue Light News.

Democrats are pushing to flip Senate seats in Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska — all states that President Donald Trump won by at least 11 points in 2024 — with dreams of going even deeper into the map Kansas, South Carolina and even Mississippi. Sensing a potential disaster, Republicans have significantly curtailed their investments in North Carolina and Georgia to direct resources elsewhere.

Ruffini, who isn’t polling for candidates or party committees in any federal races, said he’s skeptical of Democrats flipping some of those seats, particularly in the Midwest, and gives the GOP a coin flip’s chance at keeping control of the Senate.

If a blue wave were to come, he said it would defy the ingrained partisanship in deep-red states that has mirrored growing political polarization around the country.

“I think it would be somewhat of a historic shift if that were to happen,” he said.

Here’s more from Blue Light News’s chat with Ruffini, edited for length and clarity. A more condensed version of this interview ran in Blue Light News’s Morning Score campaign newsletter.

You’ve been pretty publicly skeptical of polling that indicates a big tsunami for Democrats in November. Why is that?

I think we can read the environment right, but the map wrong.

The pretty large shift towards Democrats that we’re seeing on the generic ballot and in a lot of individual races, I’m not saying that’s not going to materialize. What I am more skeptical of is… the ability of any major party in this polarized era that we’re in to rack up significant gains in states that went double digits for the other side.

I’m not ruling out — I think there will be some [examples]. I think Alaska is one where it’s both an idiosyncratic state, and [Democratic nominee Mary] Peltola has shown some specific candidate-centered strength. Nor would it shock me if [Democrat] James Talarico wins, despite the history in Texas. That would not surprise me, just given the candidate quality disparity, particularly on the Ken Paxton side.

Where I get more skeptical is when you move into the Midwest, where there has historically been pretty large polling errors [overstating Democrats’ chances] in states like Iowa, Ohio. And I think you can extend that to the Democratic enthusiasm around Kansas.

Is your skepticism coming more from the quality of the individual polls that you’re seeing that are showing massive Democratic surges in the Midwest, or is it the history of these states that you’re betting will ultimately win out?

I think fundamentals are going to play an important role, particularly in states where there was a solid Trump advantage. We’re not talking about a state like North Carolina or Georgia that’s only for Trump narrowly, where Democrats, at least in the Senate races, are clearly favored.

Historically the presumption is that states tend to converge on their base partisanship in the closing days of an election, but especially that’s been the pattern in the Midwest.

Specifically as it relates to the polls this year, I think any pollster you would talk to, including myself, is experiencing significant non-response bias favoring Democrats.

When you’re seeing high-propensity Democrats [responding to polls] at twice the rate of high-propensity Republicans, when we know that the turnout on both sides would be roughly evenly paired, that’s a warning sign for polling in this cycle.

It seems like there’s some GOP internal polling saying that Republicans are worried about these states, because they are moving money around to triage certain races. I’m curious if you feel like they’re wrong to be making those decisions?

Absolutely not. They’re not wrong. You do have to take the polls somewhat seriously in the sense of, if you do get a poll that’s within the margin of error, I think you’re duty-bound to spend money in those places and not to ignore what could be a potential signal.

I think that control of the Senate comes down to Texas, so they’re right to be spending money there. If you just look at the amount of money being spent in Texas versus Kansas, obviously it’s a much, much bigger state, and you need to spend much more money.

But it’s not something along the lines of ‘the battleground has shifted. It’s a foregone conclusion. Democrats are going to win the Senate,’ and then the battleground entirely shifts to a state like Kansas or to Iowa, right? I don’t think we’re seeing that.

It sounds like the issue you have is how the broader public is interpreting these polls rather than the polls themselves?

The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground. And to some extent it’s happening both ways. The polls showing a margin-of- error race in Minnesota is possible, right? I’m not as concerned about a polling error in Minnesota as I am in Kansas.

But because of the number of Democratic internals and because of the incentive of Democratic internals to show close races across the battleground, what you generally tend to see is more of an inflated sense of how big the battleground actually is. A lot of these races just break a certain way.

We’ve reported that Republicans are privately conceding that the House is lost. Is that your reading of the data too?

That’s the best reading of the data. That said, if there’s a three-point polling error or something, then I think it gets very, very tight and anything can happen. But I think that’s the most likely outcome.

What is your prediction for the number of Senate seats Republicans will have?

My prediction for both the probability and the seat count is 50-50. There’s a 50-50 chance Republicans hold the Senate. I think if they do, it’s with 50 seats, probably. But obviously, that can tilt very easily.

Which of these states do you think are going to flip for Democrats?

Alaska is clearly favored. I mean, I don’t know if it’s clearly favored, but I think it’s at least still Democrat. I think Texas is going to be very, very close. I just think the partisanship of the state is — people forget it’s a little bit more Republican than it was back in 2018. I think Republicans are probably being underestimated in Ohio because of the past Midwestern polling error.

At the same time, I would say it’s still uphill in Maine and Michigan to some degree. I think Susan Collins has really been the lone bright spot, at least in terms of the conventional wisdom, the narrative in the Senate for Republicans. I think she has a fighting chance, but I think Republicans are still probably under a 50% chance in both Michigan and Maine, just due to the nature of their partisan lean.

If at the end of all of this it is a real blue wave in the Senate, what will have happened to have made you wrong?

If that happens, we will have seen a level of depolarization in the electorate that we haven’t seen since around 2012. You really have to go back in history for a state like Kansas to flip.That would be pretty unique historically, where it’s a flip where you have an incumbent losing.

That’s the kind of thing that used to happen in Senate races a lot, and then things, starting with Trump, got a lot more polarized. So what that would mean is, maybe this is the start of a new political era. But I think it would be somewhat of a historic shift if that were to happen.

Politics

Ohio returns as a bellwether

Published

3 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Ohio returns as a bellwether

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Politics

Inside the quiet money pullback — for both parties — in Georgia’s Senate race

Published

5 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The money spigot is sputtering in Georgia’s Senate race amid growing expectations that Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff will win reelection.

The Senate Leadership Fund, Republicans’ top Senate super PAC, did not spend on broadcast television in the state last week — the first week they were off air in the race, according to tracking firm AdImpact. Neither did Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC.

Senate Majority PAC will also be dark again this week, the Chuck Schumer-aligned group shared first with Blue Light News. It was not immediately clear whether SLF would follow suit. The group declined to comment on their future spending plans in the state.

The spending slowdown underscores how dramatically Georgia’s place on the Senate map has shifted, as Ossoff maintains wide margins over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in public polling and fundraising. Georgia was expected to be one of the cycle’s most expensive and preeminent battlegrounds — now some of the biggest outside spenders are pulling back and turning their attention to more competitive races in redder territory.

The two major Senate super PACs have closely mirrored each other’s spending decisions in recent weeks, with neither fully retreating from the state. They still both technically have future ad reservations booked past this week, but those are not binding, leaving both sides with the flexibility to redirect money as they assess the Senate map. And with two weeks until Election Day and early voting already underway in Georgia, it’s unclear whether either will spend any more in the state.

“National Republicans are abandoning Mike Collins as he continues to show Georgians why he’s unelectable and unfit for office. We are committed to seeing Jon Ossoff through to victory as we come to the final days of this campaign,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement.

Collins’ campaign, in a statement, said they were “grateful to every group that’s standing with Rep. Collins and welcome their continued support.”

“With early voting underway, he’s working every day to earn the vote of every Georgian, because Jon Ossoff is a radical leftist who wants to raise their taxes and make their families less safe. Rep. Collins will keep making that case until Ossoff is held accountable on Election Day,” Collins spokesperson Meyer Siegfried said in a statement.

Ossoff’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.

SMP had pledged in the spring to spend $20 million on television for the race, but as of Friday had only spent or reserved $11.5 million, per AdImpact. SLF had announced an initial $44 million investment, but has so far only spent or reserved roughly $20 million.

No Going Back PAC, which is affiliated with President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, has also dramatically scaled back its own spending on the race over the last two weeks, according to AdImpact.

Republican operatives are still monitoring Georgia’s governor’s race, where recent public polling shows GOP nominee Rick Jackson slightly ahead of Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. Republicans believe Jackson’s strength could keep the Senate race closer than currently expected.

But they have grown increasingly pessimistic about their prospects of flipping Georgia’s Senate seat, as Collins trails Ossoff in the polls and the overall environment for the GOP continues to grow more difficult. SLF’s decision to go dark last week — so close to the election — raises questions about how much more the group will ultimately invest in the state.

“Every dollar Schumer spends in Georgia is one not spent on offense in red states. Republicans’ financial advantage doesn’t just show up in more ads, it keeps Dems on defense,” a person familiar with SLF’s spending plans told Blue Light News.

Ossoff also holds a massive fundraising advantage over Collins, who had just over $1 million cash on hand as of Oct. 1, giving Ossoff a major financial cushion in the final stretch even before the major Senate super PACs pulled back their spending.

The GOP has been triaging races across the map: SLF shifted money out of North Carolina, another perennial battleground, while moving resources toward defending GOP-held seats in states like Kansas and South Carolina, where the Senate contests have become increasingly competitive.

Still, even as the money going into Georgia has continued to slow, Trump appears to be prioritizing the longtime battleground.

At a rally in Dalton on Friday, he urged voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot, while praising Collins and the state’s GOP governor’s nominee, Rick Jackson.

Meredith Lee Hill and Andrew Howard contributed.