Politics
‘From Russia with Lev’ reveals the dark toll of Trump’s ‘reality show’ presidency
They say Los Angeles is where you go when you want to be somebody, New York is where you go when you are somebody, and Miami is where you go when you want to be somebody else. It’s always been a sunny place for shady people. (And there’s always a Florida connection: Watergate, 9/11, Ted Bundy, O.J. Simpson.)
Lev Parnas, the Ukrainian American businessman who worked closely with Rudy Giuliani to attempt to dig up dirt on Joe Biden before the 2020 election, who served time in prison on charges including campaign finance and wire fraud and who went on to testify about a number of efforts by GOP leaders, including former President Donald Trump and his close allies, to spread misinformation and mislead the public, is the consummate Florida Man.
When people get released from prison in Florida, their first call is to their mother and their second call is to us to make a documentary about them.
He makes for a provocative star of our new documentary “From Russia with Lev,” which premiered at the “MSNBC Live: Democracy 2024” event in New York on Saturday.
My producing partner at our Miami Beach-based production company, rakontur, Alfred Spellman, (half) jokes that when people get released from prison in Florida, their first call is to their mother and their second call is to us to make a documentary about them. But in this case, we caught Parnas on his way to prison. As fellow Florida men, Parnas and I followed each other on the platform formally known as Twitter. Before his federal criminal trial in 2021, I slid into his DMs to set up a lunch meeting in South Beach.
I learned Parnas was familiar with and, fortunately, a fan of our work, so he agreed to tell us his story.
Parnas was born in Soviet Ukraine, and his family fled when he was 4 years old and eventually settled in Brooklyn, New York’s Brighton Beach neighborhood, also known as “Little Odessa.” Per his account, he became a runner for local gangsters, graduated to some of the sketchiest Wall Street brokerage houses and, when his friends started getting arrested, was forced to flee again: this time to South Florida. There, he helped run “mobbed up” penny stock boiler rooms, three of which were suspended for fraud. Then there were illegal poker games in Beverly Hills, seven kids with four women, a pile of unpaid bills, a trail of lawsuits against him and defrauded investors in various ventures, like a movie he pitched that was supposed to star Jack Nicholson and a Florida company with the most Florida name ever, Fraud Guarantee.
How Parnas, of all people, got entangled with the most powerful men in the world, recruited by “America’s Mayor” to engage in “shadow diplomacy,” allegedly shake down two successive Ukrainian presidents and help get Trump impeached (the first time) is as riveting as it is “ridiculous,” to borrow a descriptor from Parnas’ third wife, Svetlana, who participated in our documentary.
The story of Lev Parnas is like Tom Clancy if Jack Ryan were played by Jackie Mason.
We were well aware of the scandal surrounding Parnas in the latter half of 2019, but our introduction to Lev: The Character was via Rachel Maddow’s sensational interview on BLN in January 2020. We never imagined that the inspiration she provided for us then would lead to our producing her first feature documentary four years later. Parnas was clearly broken in that interview, but you could still detect the mischief in his eye and the chutzpah in his voice that got him into this mess.
A man without a country — after he betrayed both of his. Hated by the left for being one of Trump’s “plumbers” and reviled by the right for betraying Trump. We have a running list of potential “pop docs,” which is how we refer to our style of nonfiction storytelling, and we knew we wanted to meet this guy someday.
Parnas’ tale fits flawlessly into our signature subgenre, “Florida F—ery With International Implications,” and Parnas himself is a rakontur archetype: the likable scoundrel. He’s a charismatic raconteur and the ultimate hustler. A man who, like the subjects in many of our pop docs, such as “Cocaine Cowboys,” “The U” and “Dawg Fight,” chased the American dream by any means necessary. But the project quickly evolved into a two-hander. When we met Parnas’ long-suffering spouse, Svetlana, we realized she is the heart, soul and conscience of the story. It’s a madcap geopolitical caper with a lot of humor and a surprising amount of emotion. The stakes could not be higher, and the personalities could not be bigger.
After “537 Votes” (2020) and “God Forbid: The Sex Scandal That Brought Down a Dynasty” (2022), “From Russia With Lev” is the third in our trilogy of biannual election-year docs. This one tries to explain the eccentricities and irreverence of the Trump era, and it’s the first that takes you inside his administration: Hanukkah parties at the White House, paranoid plotting in private dining rooms at Trump International Hotel — the Mos Eisley Cantina of Trumpworld — and the reality show foreign policy of a reality show president.
Billy Corben
Billy Corben is an Emmy, Peabody and Edward R. Murrow Award-winning filmmaker. A Florida native, he is a lifelong Miamian and co-founder of the Miami Beach-based production company ragontour. He has directed documentaries including “Raw Deal: A Question of Consent” (2001), the “Cocaine Cowboys” franchise, including the Netflix original “Cocaine Cowboys: The Kings of Miami” (2021), “Dawg Fight” (2015), TIFF World Premiere “Screwball” (2018), the HBO Original “537 Votes” (2020) and “God Forbid: The Sex Scandal That Brought Down a Dynasty” (2022).
Politics
Dems pick South Carolina to lead 2028 primary calendar
Democrats voted to make South Carolina their first presidential primary state for 2028 — a significant shift from past election cycles, and one that prioritizes a state with a significant Black voting bloc.
The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee voted Friday to make the Palmetto State the first contest in the 2028 primary calendar.
The decision to choose South Carolina over Nevada, another historic early state in contention for first place, came down in part to concerns about Nevada’s ability to process election results quickly. Democrats said they were also looking to strengthen Black voting power in the South after the Supreme Court significantly restricted the Voting Rights Act earlier this year, which triggered redistricting efforts.
Michigan bested Iowa in the vote to be the Midwest’s early state, meaning Iowa will not be an early state in 2028 after leading the calendar for decades through 2020. New Hampshire, which has gone second on the nominating calendar in most past cycles, finished a distant third in voting to be Democrats’ first primary state.
Politics
Poll: Republicans’ gas price problem is even worse than it seems
Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher.
Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The Blue Light News Poll. It’s those perceptions that candidates will be running against this fall.
Voters’ anxieties about fuel prices could give Democrats a boost ahead of the midterms, further strengthening the Democratic voting base and putting strains on the MAGA coalition as the increasingly unpopular war in Iran drags on. A plurality of Americans — 46 percent — say the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote come November.
Most voters overestimated the change in gas prices in their area, according to the analysis of polling and granular pricing data provided by OPIS, a Dow Jones company that tracks gas prices. That includes majorities of voters who supported President Donald Trump and also those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Roughly one in four Americans say gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more. But no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average in the year and a half since Trump took office, as of early July.
Frustrations over cost of living could be reinforcing existing negative views of the Trump administration: Harris voters are far more likely to overshoot the cost jumps than Trump voters, making it harder for Republicans to peel off Democratic voters.
And the analysis shows a fracture among Trump voters. Self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely to underestimate cost increases than non-MAGA Republicans — another crack in the president’s winning coalition as Republicans scramble to hold it together for the midterms.
“It is a particularly tough dance that many Republican candidates will have to endure for the next three months,” said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “How do you feel the pain of your voters without feeling the wrath of Donald Trump?”
What’s more, American’s perceptions do not quickly change even when prices do. The Blue Light News Poll asked about gas prices in both May, when they were near their peak, and July, when they had dipped.
The results were the same in both.
“President Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels.”
Gas prices could swing votes
Americans’ frustrations with prices and the economy overall are changing how they say they will vote in the fall.
Of the 46 percent of Americans who said gas prices will have an impact on their vote, just under 40 percent said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.
“Three quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it,” said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “That leaves them … very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make.”
To better understand public perception of gas prices, The Blue Light News Poll asked Americans how the price of gas in their area had changed since Trump took office. Respondents could choose between buckets like “$1 to $2 higher per gallon,” “$1 to $2 lower per gallon,” or say prices had stayed roughly the same.
More than three-fourths said gas prices in their area have gone up.
Using OPIS data, Blue Light News compared each respondent’s answer against the actual average cost of regular gas in their zip code during the first week Trump was in office and the week prior to the July poll, which was conducted by the independent polling organization Public First from July 12 to July 15.
That comparison revealed the difference between the pain the American public is feeling and where actual gas prices stand — and, in particular, how that pain is expressed differently among Democrats and Republicans. Roughly 70 percent of Harris voters and 54 percent of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.
“Democrats are highly motivated,” as a voting base, Marson said. “The longer the war goes on, probably the less motivated Republicans will be.”
The perception of higher gas prices is linked to how people see the economy — and who they blame for it.
Across the country, 57 percent of Americans say the cost of living is worse than they “can ever remember it being.” Those who overestimate gas price increases had more than twice the odds of agreeing with that statement, even after controlling for demographics and their 2024 vote.
Similarly, a plurality of Americans — 43 percent — blame Trump more than former President Joe Biden for the state of the economy overall. Those who overestimated their local increase in gas prices had nearly twice the odds of saying the same, compared with those who perceived the change in gas prices correctly or who underestimated the change.
It’s already affecting the battlegrounds
In the country’s most competitive races, Republicans will have to answer for the perceived cost pressures of rising gas prices more often than Democrats.
Thirteen of the most competitive districts have experienced gas price increases higher than the national average, according to Blue Light News’s analysis. Of those, nine are currently represented by Republicans.
In California’s 22nd District, where Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao will face off against progressive political newcomer Randy Villegas, average prices across the district had gone up $1.17 by early July — the third highest increase of any district, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.
Villegas said in an interview that he thought frustration over gas prices would mobilize turnout in the fall, driven by how the cost of gas is “tied to every other thing.”
“It’s the cost of gas when you’re driving to the grocery store, when you’re driving to, you know, see a doctor,” he said. Or, the cost of gas when driving 7 to 8 hours away to “go get cheaper health care.”
Valadao did not respond to requests for comment.
In Colorado’s 8th District, where gas prices have risen by $0.73 on average since Trump took office, Republican incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans blamed local Democratic policies for increased costs more than the Iran war.
While “what’s happening halfway around the globe has some impact on global energy prices,” Evans said, high gas prices in the district are “a direct result of the local economic policies — the anti-energy policies — of the state Democrats who run the state of Colorado.”
But The Blue Light News Poll results from this month show voters don’t necessarily feel the same. Roughly 63 percent of Americans selected “the war with Iran” as the primary reason why gas prices have increased since Trump took office, including 59 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of Harris voters.
By the middle of May, the average price of gas across the country reached its highest point of the Trump administration to date: $4.50 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In July, average prices dipped to $3.78 per gallon, the lowest average price since March.
Still, in both months, more than 75 percent of Americans said gas prices had gone up, Blue Light News’s polls show. And in both months, roughly 23 percent said prices had gone up by $3.00 or more.
This week, Trump said the upcoming midterms would not impact how he goes about fighting the war with Iran. “I can’t think about that having to do with this,” he said, referring to the elections. “I think people are very impressed.”
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