Politics
Everyone is talking about what went wrong in the election. It wasn’t the polls.

On Election Night, I was nervous. I’m a pollster and a former political data journalist. I knew that if the polls whiffed again — like they did in 2020 — Americans would write off polling as irreparably broken.
Now, there’s enough data to reach a verdict — and, despite what you may have been hearing, the polls did well. No, the data wasn’t perfect, and the industry still faces long-term challenges. But we’ve proven that we can get close to the mark — which is the best we can reasonably expect from polling.
We’ve proven that we can get close to the mark — which is the best we can reasonably expect from polling.
You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics — to the latest results in swing states where NBC News has projected a winner.
- In Pennsylvania, the 538 average had Harris up 0.2 and the RCP average had Trump up 0.4. The latest numbers show Trump, the projected winner, up 2.1.
- In Michigan, the 538 average had Harris up by 1 and the RCP average had her up by 0.5. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 1.4.
- In Wisconsin, the 538 average had Harris up by 1 and the RCP average had her up by 0.4. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 0.8.
- In North Carolina, the 538 average had Trump up 0.9 and the RCP average had him up 1.2. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 3.3.
- In Georgia, the 538 average had Trump up 0.8 and the RCP average had him up 1.3. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 2.2.
- In Nevada, the 538 average had Trump up 0.3 and the RCP average had him up 0.6. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 3.3.
In the states that decided the election, the polls were generally off by 1 to 3 points. In the national popular vote, the RCP average had Trump ahead by 0.1 and he’ll likely win by 1 or 2 points. For polls — blunt instruments that typically use less than a thousand interviews to estimate how an entire state or nation feels — a 1- to 3-percentage-point error is great.
Polls in competitive Senate races were only slightly less accurate. Some results haven’t been finalized yet, but so far the key Senate races only saw two uncomfortable misses: overestimating Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada and underestimating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas by roughly 5 points each. In the other toss-ups where 538 and RCP computed an average, the polls missed by just a couple percentage points. Again, it’s unrealistic to expect polls to nail every result — a 1- to 3-point error is about as good as it gets.
- In Nevada’s Senate race, the 538 average had Rosen up 5.7 over Republican Sam Brown, and the RCP average had her up 4.9. The latest results show Rosen, the projected winner, up 1.4.
- In Michigan’s Senate race, the 538 average had Democrat Elissa Slotkin up 3.6 over Republican Mike Rogers, and the RCP average had her up 2.3. The results show Slotkin, the projected winner, up by 0.3.
- In Ohio, the 538 average had Republican Bernie Moreno up 0.8 over Democrat Sherrod Brown, and the RCP average had the Republican up 1.7. The results show Moreno, the projected winner, up by 4.
- In Wisconsin, the 538 average had Democrat Tammy Baldwin up 2.2 over Republican Eric Hovde, and the RCP average had her up 1.8. The results show Baldwin, the projected winner, up 0.9.
- In Montana, the 538 average had Republican Tim Sheehy up 6.9 over Democrat Jon Tester, and the RCP average had the Republican up 7.7. The results show Sheehy, the projected winner, up 7.4.
- And in Texas, the 538 average had Cruz up 4 over Democrat Colin Allred, and the RCP average had Cruz up 4.4. The results show Cruz, the projected winner, up 8.6.
These results are solid and should keep the polling industry alive. But we don’t have a clean bill of health just yet.
Surveys are still plagued by nonresponse: Almost 99% of people who are selected for a poll don’t complete it. Some of the groups we need to learn about the most — young voters, Latino voters, the politically disengaged — are the toughest to poll.
These results are solid and should keep the polling industry alive. But we don’t have a clean bill of health just yet.
Some pollsters might also be “herding.” That happens when a less-than-principled pollster gets an unexpected result, they might toss it in the garbage or tinker with their statistical models until their poll matches the average. That might explain why a suspicious number of Pennsylvania polls showed Trump and Harris exactly tied.
And, while the polls didn’t err by much, they did consistently lowball Trump by a couple points. Ideally, the polls would be unbiased — underestimating Harris roughly half the time, rather than only missing Trump voters.
Pollsters have partial solutions to each of these problems. We use statistical tools, such as weights, to ensure that less responsive groups are given the right amount of influence. Those same weights can create the illusion of “herding” — that is, some pollsters adjusted their sample to get the right number of Trump and Biden 2020 supporters, which naturally brought their results closer to the average. And, while the polls missed some of Trump’s edge in 2024, the error was significantly smaller than in 2020.
We don’t have full solutions to these problems. Nobody knows how to transform America into a nation of eager survey-takers or how to prevent anxious, underfunded firms from subconsciously pushing their results towards the average. And we haven’t found that last slice of the Trump vote. But I hope that on Tuesday, we bought our industry a little more time to solve these issues. I’d like to think we earned it.
David Byler
David Byler is chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights, a non-partisan polling firm anchored in the Southwest. He was previously a data columnist for the Washington Post.
Politics
Biden pays respects as former Minnesota House Speaker Hortman, killed in shooting, lies in state
ST. PAUL, Minnesota — Former President Joe Biden joined thousands of mourners Friday as former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman lay in state in the Minnesota Capitol rotunda while the man charged with killing her and her husband, and wounding a state senator and his wife, made a brief court appearance in a suicide prevention suit.
Hortman, a Democrat, is the first woman and one of fewer than 20 Minnesotans accorded the honor. She lay in state with her husband, Mark, and their golden retriever, Gilbert. Her husband was also killed in the June 14 attack, and Gilbert was seriously wounded and had to be euthanized. It was the first time a couple has lain in state at the Capitol, and the first time for a dog.
The Hortmans’ caskets and the dog’s urn were arranged in the center of the rotunda, under the Capitol dome, with law enforcement officers keeping watch on either side as thousands of people who lined up filed by. Many fought back tears as they left.
Among the first to pay their respects were Gov. Tim Walz, who has called Hortman his closest political ally, and his wife, Gwen. Biden, a Catholic, visited later in the afternoon, walking up to the velvet rope in front of the caskets, making the sign of the cross, and spending a few moments by himself in silence. He then took a knee briefly, got up, made the sign of the cross again, and walked off to greet people waiting in the wings of the rotunda.
The Capitol was open for the public from noon to 5 p.m. Friday, but officials said anyone waiting in line at 5 would be let in. House TV livestreamed the viewing. A private funeral is set for 10:30 a.m. Saturday and will be livestreamed on the Department of Public Safety’s YouTube channel.
Biden will attend the funeral, a spokesperson said. So will former Vice President Kamala Harris, though neither is expected to speak. Harris expressed her condolences earlier this week to Hortman’s adult children, and spoke with Walz, her running mate on the 2024 Democratic presidential ticket, who extended an invitation on behalf of the Hortman family, her office said.
Lisa Greene, who lives in Brooklyn Park like Hortman did, but in a different House district, said she came to the Capitol because she had so much respect for the former speaker.
“She was just amazing. Amazing woman. “And I was just so proud that she represented the city that I lived in,” Greene said in a voice choked with emotion. “She was such a leader. She could bring people together. She was so accessible. I mean, she was friendly, you could talk to her.” But, she went on to say admiringly, Hortman was also “a boss. She just knew what she was doing and she could just make things happen.”
A hearing takes a twist: The man accused of killing the Hortmans and wounding another Democratic lawmaker and his wife made a short court appearance Friday to face charges for what the chief federal prosecutor for Minnesota has called “a political assassination.” Vance Boelter, 57, of Green Isle, surrendered near his home the night of June 15 after what authorities have called the largest search in Minnesota history.
An unshaven Boelter was brought in wearing just a green padded suicide prevention suit and orange slippers. Federal defender Manny Atwal asked Magistrate Judge Douglas Micko to continue the hearing until Thursday. She said Boelter has been sleep deprived while on suicide watch in the Sherburne County Jail, and that it has been difficult to communicate with him as a result.
“Your honor, I haven’t really slept in about 12 to 14 days,” Boelter told the judge. And he denied being suicidal. “I’ve never been suicidal and I am not suicidal now.”
Atwal told the court that Boelter had been in what’s known as a “Gumby suit,” without undergarments, ever since his transfer to the jail after his first court appearance on June 16. She said the lights are on in his area 24 hours a day, doors slam frequently, the inmate in the next cell spreads feces on the walls, and the smell drifts to Boelter’s cell.
The attorney said transferring him to segregation instead, and giving him a normal jail uniform, would let him get some sleep, restore some dignity, and let him communicate better. The judge agreed.
Prosecutors did not object to the delay and said they also had concerns about the jail conditions.
The acting U.S. attorney for Minnesota, Joseph Thompson, told reporters afterward that he did not think Boelter had attempted to kill himself.
The case continues: Boelter did not enter a plea. Prosecutors need to secure a grand jury indictment first, before his arraignment, which is when a plea is normally entered.
According to the federal complaint, police video shows Boelter outside the Hortmans’ home and captures the sound of gunfire. And it says security video shows Boelter approaching the front doors of two other lawmakers’ homes dressed as a police officer.
His lawyers have declined to comment on the charges, which could carry the federal death penalty. Thompson said last week that no decision has been made. Minnesota abolished its death penalty in 1911. The Death Penalty Information Center says a federal death penalty case hasn’t been prosecuted in Minnesota in the modern era, as best as it can tell.
Boelter also faces separate murder and attempted murder charges in state court that could carry life without parole, assuming that county prosecutors get their own indictment for first-degree murder. But federal authorities intend to use their power to try Boelter first.
Other victims and alleged targets: Authorities say Boelter shot and wounded Democratic state Sen. John Hoffman, and his wife, Yvette, at their home in Champlin before shooting and killing the Hortmans in their home in the northern Minneapolis suburb of Brooklyn Park, a few miles away.
Federal prosecutors allege Boelter also stopped at the homes of two other Democratic lawmakers. Prosecutors also say he listed dozens of other Democrats as potential targets, including officials in other states. Friends described Boelter as an evangelical Christian with politically conservative views. But prosecutors have declined so far to speculate on a motive.
Politics
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