Politics

Everyone is talking about what went wrong in the election. It wasn’t the polls.

Published

2 years ago

November 11, 2024

Everyone is talking about what went wrong in the election. It wasn’t the polls.

On Election Night, I was nervous. I’m a pollster and a former political data journalist. I knew that if the polls whiffed again — like they did in 2020 — Americans would write off polling as irreparably broken.

Now, there’s enough data to reach a verdict — and, despite what you may have been hearing, the polls did well. No, the data wasn’t perfect, and the industry still faces long-term challenges. But we’ve proven that we can get close to the mark — which is the best we can reasonably expect from polling.

We’ve proven that we can get close to the mark — which is the best we can reasonably expect from polling.

You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics — to the latest results in swing states where NBC News has projected a winner.

In Pennsylvania, the 538 average had Harris up 0.2 and the RCP average had Trump up 0.4. The latest numbers show Trump, the projected winner, up 2.1.
In Michigan, the 538 average had Harris up by 1 and the RCP average had her up by 0.5. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 1.4.
In Wisconsin, the 538 average had Harris up by 1 and the RCP average had her up by 0.4. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 0.8.
In North Carolina, the 538 average had Trump up 0.9 and the RCP average had him up 1.2. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 3.3.
In Georgia, the 538 average had Trump up 0.8 and the RCP average had him up 1.3. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 2.2.
In Nevada, the 538 average had Trump up 0.3 and the RCP average had him up 0.6. The results show Trump, the projected winner, up 3.3.

In the states that decided the election, the polls were generally off by 1 to 3 points. In the national popular vote, the RCP average had Trump ahead by 0.1 and he’ll likely win by 1 or 2 points. For polls — blunt instruments that typically use less than a thousand interviews to estimate how an entire state or nation feels — a 1- to 3-percentage-point error is great.

Polls in competitive Senate races were only slightly less accurate. Some results haven’t been finalized yet, but so far the key Senate races only saw two uncomfortable misses: overestimating Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada and underestimating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas by roughly 5 points each. In the other toss-ups where 538 and RCP computed an average, the polls missed by just a couple percentage points. Again, it’s unrealistic to expect polls to nail every result — a 1- to 3-point error is about as good as it gets.

In Nevada’s Senate race, the 538 average had Rosen up 5.7 over Republican Sam Brown, and the RCP average had her up 4.9. The latest results show Rosen, the projected winner, up 1.4.
In Michigan’s Senate race, the 538 average had Democrat Elissa Slotkin up 3.6 over Republican Mike Rogers, and the RCP average had her up 2.3. The results show Slotkin, the projected winner, up by 0.3.
In Ohio, the 538 average had Republican Bernie Moreno up 0.8 over Democrat Sherrod Brown, and the RCP average had the Republican up 1.7. The results show Moreno, the projected winner, up by 4.

In Wisconsin, the 538 average had Democrat Tammy Baldwin up 2.2 over Republican Eric Hovde, and the RCP average had her up 1.8. The results show Baldwin, the projected winner, up 0.9.
In Montana, the 538 average had Republican Tim Sheehy up 6.9 over Democrat Jon Tester, and the RCP average had the Republican up 7.7. The results show Sheehy, the projected winner, up 7.4.
And in Texas, the 538 average had Cruz up 4 over Democrat Colin Allred, and the RCP average had Cruz up 4.4. The results show Cruz, the projected winner, up 8.6.

These results are solid and should keep the polling industry alive. But we don’t have a clean bill of health just yet.

Surveys are still plagued by nonresponse: Almost 99% of people who are selected for a poll don’t complete it. Some of the groups we need to learn about the most — young voters, Latino voters, the politically disengaged — are the toughest to poll.

These results are solid and should keep the polling industry alive. But we don’t have a clean bill of health just yet.

Some pollsters might also be “herding.” That happens when a less-than-principled pollster gets an unexpected result, they might toss it in the garbage or tinker with their statistical models until their poll matches the average. That might explain why a suspicious number of Pennsylvania polls showed Trump and Harris exactly tied.

And, while the polls didn’t err by much, they did consistently lowball Trump by a couple points. Ideally, the polls would be unbiased — underestimating Harris roughly half the time, rather than only missing Trump voters.

Pollsters have partial solutions to each of these problems. We use statistical tools, such as weights, to ensure that less responsive groups are given the right amount of influence. Those same weights can create the illusion of “herding” — that is, some pollsters adjusted their sample to get the right number of Trump and Biden 2020 supporters, which naturally brought their results closer to the average. And, while the polls missed some of Trump’s edge in 2024, the error was significantly smaller than in 2020.

We don’t have full solutions to these problems. Nobody knows how to transform America into a nation of eager survey-takers or how to prevent anxious, underfunded firms from subconsciously pushing their results towards the average. And we haven’t found that last slice of the Trump vote. But I hope that on Tuesday, we bought our industry a little more time to solve these issues. I’d like to think we earned it.

David Byler

David Byler is chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights, a non-partisan polling firm anchored in the Southwest. He was previously a data columnist for the Washington Post.

Politics

The top of Arizona’s GOP ticket is littered with 2020 election deniers

Published

6 minutes ago

July 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

To make it out of a Republican primary in Arizona, there’s one key litmus test: believing the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump.

Election deniers who played prominent roles in efforts to overturn the 2020 results triumphed in statewide Republican primaries Tuesday, from Rep. Andy Biggs for governor to state Rep. Alexander Kolodin for secretary of state. State Senate President Warren Petersen was leading his primary for attorney general, though his race was not yet called as of early Wednesday morning.

Biggs, a staunch Trump ally who helped try and overturn the election on Jan. 6, 2021, was later subpoenaed in an Arizona probe. Kolodin represented a slate of fake electors, leading to discipline from the Arizona state bar, and filed lawsuits to try to overturn both the 2020 and 2022 elections. Petersen launched a taxpayer-funded audit into Maricopa County’s election system that eventually led to a subpoena.

Their victories show GOP primary voters continue to prefer candidates who have pushed false narratives about elections or worked to overturn them. But that can prove toxic in November — and Democrats plan to make their rivals pay for those positions in the fall.

“It’s one of those things that just won’t go away,” said former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.). “In the Republican Party in Arizona, in the primary, carrying the Trump line on virtually everything — and that includes election denialism — is still something that benefits you.”

But in the general election, “it’s a stone around your neck,” Salmon said. “Among independents and moderate Republicans who vote in the general election, election denialism is not an asset.”

Each of the triumphant election deniers Tuesday centered election integrity in their 2026 campaigns. Biggs has been a prominent supporter of the SAVE America Act, the stalled election bill that Trump has pushed repeatedly. Kolodin has advocated for ending Arizona’s permanent early voting list and for stringent ID requirements. And Petersen has pledged to expand the attorney general office’s election integrity unit in order to investigate election results. Arizona was one of the most competitive — and most contested — states in the 2020 election. Fox News’ decision to declare then-candidate Joe Biden’s victory in the state on election night sent shockwaves through Trump’s orbit. It took then-Republican Gov. Doug Ducey several weeks to acknowledge Biden won.

The Grand Canyon State became ground zero for Trump’s effort to overturn the election. Trump and his allies pressured Arizona leaders, including then-House Speaker Rusty Bowers, to call the legislature back into session and recall the state’s slate of electors. A group of Republicans falsely posing as alternate electors were later charged with forgery, fraud and conspiracy, a case that is ongoing.

Even still, running as an election denier hasn’t been a successful strategy for the Arizona GOP once November rolls around. In 2022, Arizona Republicans nominated hardline election deniers up and down the ballot — Kari Lake for governor, Blake Masters for U.S. Senate, and Mark Finchem for secretary of state — and saw losses in each race, even as Republicans nationally enjoyed an otherwise strong year. And in 2024, Lake again lost, this time for U.S. Senate, even as Trump won the state by more than five percentage points.

“Biggs and Kolodin will be saddled with election denialism for the next three months,” said longtime Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “While Democrats would be wise to focus on affordability, certainly some of their talking points will focus on how these two are dangerous for democracy.”

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary Tuesday and will face Biggs in November, served as secretary of state during the 2020 election. She has portrayed this year’s gubernatorial election as a contrast between confidence and conspiracy in the state’s election system.

“Arizona is one of seven swing states that will decide the presidential election,” Hobbs said during an MS NOW appearance Tuesday evening. “If Andy Biggs is governor, Arizona is the first swing state with an election denier in charge, and the time to stop that is not 2028. It is right now.”

It’s almost impossible to be a Republican officeholder without agreeing with the president on the 2020 election and the need to dramatically change election law.

“As long as Donald Trump, who has the bully pulpit and is the party leader … is talking about election integrity, it will be a top issue in GOP primaries,” said one Arizona Republican strategist, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly.

“Election integrity measures are broadly popular, but the issue being front and center highlights divisions about Jan. 6th and wasn’t a winning general election issue in 2022,” the strategist continued. “Not sure that general election voters will care much about that in 2026 with such a focus on affordability issues. We are about to find out!”

Trump, for his part, has proven unwilling to move past the 2020 election even after winning a return to the White House in 2024. He has never acknowledged he lost that election, and in a primetime speech last Thursday, he announced his administration would declassify documents he alleged show Chinese interference in the 2020 race.

“Our elections were left vulnerable to being rigged and stolen, and the trust of the American people was lost,” Trump said Thursday. “This cannot be allowed to continue.”

Politics

Trump-backed Jay Feely wins GOP primary in Arizona’s battleground 1st District

Published

2 hours ago

July 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely cruised to victory in Arizona’s 1st District on Tuesday, one of the nation’s most competitive battlegrounds.

Feely, a close ally of President Donald Trump, leveraged Trump’s endorsement to topple former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik.

He’ll face a steep challenge defeating the Democratic nominee in November: The 1st District, which spans the affluent suburbs north of Phoenix, is one of House Democrats’ top targets after Trump won it by just three points in 2024. Feely is looking to keep the seat under GOP control amid a midterm year that presents major headwinds for the party.

Politics

Rep. Andy Biggs wins GOP primary for Arizona governor

Published

2 hours ago

July 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Biggs has won the GOP primary to face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November, setting up a marquee governor’s race in one of America’s most competitive states.

Biggs, a former chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and a close ally of President Donald Trump, easily dealt with his only serious challenger, Rep. David Schweikert, on Tuesday. Before the primary results were official, he had already begun pivoting to the general election against Hobbs, who is seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic governors this fall.

Republicans feel bullish about their odds of flipping the governorship, after Trump carried the state by five points in 2024. But even though Trump won last time, the state has gradually shifted to pure tossup territory over the past few years, electing Democrats to both Senate seats, as well as the attorney general and secretary of state’s offices.

Hobbs had already shifted her focus to Biggs as well. Her campaign has amassed a significant warchest for the race and has already started running ads. Biggs, given his lack of a significant primary challenge, has been able to hold onto more cash than his GOP rivals, but is still behind Hobbs.

The race will test whether Republicans, who are starting down a potentially bruising midterm cycle, can reclaim the top office of a state that has long been a place of success for the party.

During the Republican primary debate, Biggs spent more time talking about his working relationship with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly than he did flexing his endorsement from Trump or highlighting his House record, including his time atop the Freedom Caucus. Instead, he tried to refocus on his bipartisanship in Congress and his leadership in the state legislature.

“I know how to reach across the aisle,” Biggs said during the debate.

But he will still have to contend with many of his past stances, including his role in trying to overturn the 2020 election.

And Hobbs is already working to ensure voters know where Biggs stands on key issues as a longtime member of the House, including his anti-abortion positions and his role in 2020. Her campaign has repeatedly attacked him as “too extreme” for the state and has dubbed him “basement Biggs” for keeping a relatively low profile throughout the GOP primary.