Politics

Eric Adams’ political career is over — but the very Trumpian chaos isn’t

Published

2 years ago

November 12, 2024

Eric Adams’ political career is over — but the very Trumpian chaos isn’t

The indictment of Eric Adams is historic because no sitting New York mayor — in modern times, at least — has been indicted before. Adams denies the charges, and he has even, like former President Donald Trump, strongly hinted at a federal conspiracy against him because he criticized the Biden administration over its handling of the migrant influx.

That’s all nonsense, of course — corruption clouds have trailed Adams for years, and the indictment lodged against him by the U.S. a ttorney for the Southern District is quite damning. Damian Williams accused Adams of performing favors for Turkish foreign nationals after accepting more than $100,000 in international plane tickets and accommodations, as well as soliciting illegal donations from them, generating public matching funds for his 2021 mayoral campaign.

If he forges onward to the June Democratic primary, he will not win.

The five-count indictment includes allegations against Adams of wire fraud, bribery and receiving contributions from foreign nationals. Adams has denied the charges, but even if he somehow won at trial — this seems unlikely — the political damage is done. When the federal investigations into his administration and campaign were just burbling up, Adams was already deeply unpopular. His poll numbers were plummeting. He was going to struggle to win re-election.

Now that possibility has been foreclosed, though Adams may believe otherwise. If he forges onward to the June Democratic primary, he will not win. His political base, centered in the working-class outer borough neighborhoods of New York, is shrinking, and there will be plenty of contenders free of recent scandal to take him on. In 2021, he won the primary by less than 10,000 votes, and many of the Democrats who put him on their ballots will not do so again.

Will Adams resign? So far, he is taking the Trumpian approach: not apologizing, not admitting guilt and hoping his luck starts to turn. Trump had the advantage of the presidency and the kingly powers it bestows on whoever occupies the White House. Trump had constitutional protections Adams simply lacks. Adams cannot delay this corruption trial indefinitely.

It’s plausible more indictments will come. There are at least three other federal probes into his administration. His police commissioner and counsel have already resigned. The FBI has seized the phones of many of his top officials, including his schools chancellor.

Gov. Kathy Hochul, a fellow Democrat, has the power to remove him from office. She probably won’t. She is still something of an Adams ally and might fear the optics of a white governor pulling a Black mayor out of City Hall before he’s convicted of a crime. She will sit back and wait.

Many politicians have called on Adams to resign. For now, they have only so much leverage. If Adams does, it will be the U.S. attorney’s office that drives him out, perhaps striking a deal for Adams to spend a limited amount of time in prison or avoid incarceration altogether. We do not know what’s coming next.

His police commissioner and counsel have already resigned. The FBI has seized the phones of many of his top officials, including his schools chancellor.

If Adams does resign, Jumaane Williams, the public advocate, becomes acting mayor. By law, Williams must call a special election, which would be nonpartisan and held about three months later. That election, like the primary, would be held under the new ranked-choice voting system, in which voters can pick up to five candidates. This creates the possibility for cross-endorsements, guards against vote-splitting and rewards less polarizing contenders.

Williams would be a top candidate to replace Adams. Like the current mayor, he hails from the Black working class, and he has a much stronger relationship with the progressive left. Another contender from the progressive wing of the party, City Comptroller Brad Lander, is running, as well. A 2021 candidate, former City Comptroller Scott Stringer, is launching another mayoral bid. Several state legislators who are less well-known are already in the race, with another expected to enter soon.

The wild card is former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Three years ago, he resigned the governorship in disgrace following accusations of sexual harassment and fostering a hostile work environment (he’s denied the allegations). He craves redemption. He is both beloved and reviled; among certain Democrats, his Covid-era press conferences are recalled very fondly. Others remember he authorized sending Covid patients to nursing homes, where the virus spread unchecked. Other candidates could gang up on him and drag him down in the polls, and ranked-choice voting may not be his friend. Adams’ scandals could remind New Yorkers of Cuomo’s past.

Regardless, because of his name recognition and political skill, Cuomo must be considered a front-runner in a post-Adams world. No matter what, these next few months will be unlike any we’ve ever witnessed in the history of New York City.

Ross Barkan

Ross Barkan is a writer and journalist from New York City.

Politics

Poll: Republicans’ gas price problem is even worse than it seems

Published

4 hours ago

July 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher.

Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The Blue Light News Poll. It’s those perceptions that candidates will be running against this fall.

Voters’ anxieties about fuel prices could give Democrats a boost ahead of the midterms, further strengthening the Democratic voting base and putting strains on the MAGA coalition as the increasingly unpopular war in Iran drags on. A plurality of Americans — 46 percent — say the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote come November.

Most voters overestimated the change in gas prices in their area, according to the analysis of polling and granular pricing data provided by OPIS, a Dow Jones company that tracks gas prices. That includes majorities of voters who supported President Donald Trump and also those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Roughly one in four Americans say gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more. But no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average in the year and a half since Trump took office, as of early July.

Frustrations over cost of living could be reinforcing existing negative views of the Trump administration: Harris voters are far more likely to overshoot the cost jumps than Trump voters, making it harder for Republicans to peel off Democratic voters.

And the analysis shows a fracture among Trump voters. Self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely to underestimate cost increases than non-MAGA Republicans — another crack in the president’s winning coalition as Republicans scramble to hold it together for the midterms.

“It is a particularly tough dance that many Republican candidates will have to endure for the next three months,” said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “How do you feel the pain of your voters without feeling the wrath of Donald Trump?”

What’s more, American’s perceptions do not quickly change even when prices do. The Blue Light News Poll asked about gas prices in both May, when they were near their peak, and July, when they had dipped.

The results were the same in both.

“President Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels.”

Gas prices could swing votes

Americans’ frustrations with prices and the economy overall are changing how they say they will vote in the fall.

Of the 46 percent of Americans who said gas prices will have an impact on their vote, just under 40 percent said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.

“Three quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it,” said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “That leaves them … very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make.”

To better understand public perception of gas prices, The Blue Light News Poll asked Americans how the price of gas in their area had changed since Trump took office. Respondents could choose between buckets like “$1 to $2 higher per gallon,” “$1 to $2 lower per gallon,” or say prices had stayed roughly the same.

More than three-fourths said gas prices in their area have gone up.

Using OPIS data, Blue Light News compared each respondent’s answer against the actual average cost of regular gas in their zip code during the first week Trump was in office and the week prior to the July poll, which was conducted by the independent polling organization Public First from July 12 to July 15.

That comparison revealed the difference between the pain the American public is feeling and where actual gas prices stand — and, in particular, how that pain is expressed differently among Democrats and Republicans. Roughly 70 percent of Harris voters and 54 percent of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

“Democrats are highly motivated,” as a voting base, Marson said. “The longer the war goes on, probably the less motivated Republicans will be.”

The perception of higher gas prices is linked to how people see the economy — and who they blame for it.

Across the country, 57 percent of Americans say the cost of living is worse than they “can ever remember it being.” Those who overestimate gas price increases had more than twice the odds of agreeing with that statement, even after controlling for demographics and their 2024 vote.

Similarly, a plurality of Americans — 43 percent — blame Trump more than former President Joe Biden for the state of the economy overall. Those who overestimated their local increase in gas prices had nearly twice the odds of saying the same, compared with those who perceived the change in gas prices correctly or who underestimated the change.

It’s already affecting the battlegrounds

In the country’s most competitive races, Republicans will have to answer for the perceived cost pressures of rising gas prices more often than Democrats.

Thirteen of the most competitive districts have experienced gas price increases higher than the national average, according to Blue Light News’s analysis. Of those, nine are currently represented by Republicans.

In California’s 22nd District, where Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao will face off against progressive political newcomer Randy Villegas, average prices across the district had gone up $1.17 by early July — the third highest increase of any district, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

Villegas said in an interview that he thought frustration over gas prices would mobilize turnout in the fall, driven by how the cost of gas is “tied to every other thing.”

“It’s the cost of gas when you’re driving to the grocery store, when you’re driving to, you know, see a doctor,” he said. Or, the cost of gas when driving 7 to 8 hours away to “go get cheaper health care.”

Valadao did not respond to requests for comment.

In Colorado’s 8th District, where gas prices have risen by $0.73 on average since Trump took office, Republican incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans blamed local Democratic policies for increased costs more than the Iran war.

While “what’s happening halfway around the globe has some impact on global energy prices,” Evans said, high gas prices in the district are “a direct result of the local economic policies — the anti-energy policies — of the state Democrats who run the state of Colorado.”

But The Blue Light News Poll results from this month show voters don’t necessarily feel the same. Roughly 63 percent of Americans selected “the war with Iran” as the primary reason why gas prices have increased since Trump took office, including 59 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of Harris voters.

By the middle of May, the average price of gas across the country reached its highest point of the Trump administration to date: $4.50 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In July, average prices dipped to $3.78 per gallon, the lowest average price since March.

Still, in both months, more than 75 percent of Americans said gas prices had gone up, Blue Light News’s polls show. And in both months, roughly 23 percent said prices had gone up by $3.00 or more.

This week, Trump said the upcoming midterms would not impact how he goes about fighting the war with Iran. “I can’t think about that having to do with this,” he said, referring to the elections. “I think people are very impressed.”

Politics

Capitol agenda: House GOP budget faces Senate reality check

Published

11 hours ago

July 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Capitol agenda: House GOP budget faces Senate reality check

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been frank about the rocky road the reconciliation effort faces and careful not to guarantee he’ll be successful…
Read More