The indictment of Eric Adams is historic because no sitting New York mayor — in modern times, at least — has been indicted before. Adams denies the charges, and he has even, like former President Donald Trump, strongly hinted at a federal conspiracy against him because he criticized the Biden administration over its handling of the migrant influx.

That’s all nonsense, of course — corruption clouds have trailed Adams for years, and the indictment lodged against him by the U.S. attorney for the Southern District is quite damning. Damian Williams accused Adams of performing favors for Turkish foreign nationals after accepting more than $100,000 in international plane tickets and accommodations, as well as soliciting illegal donations from them, generating public matching funds for his 2021 mayoral campaign.

If he forges onward to the June Democratic primary, he will not win.

The five-count indictment includes allegations against Adams of wire fraud, bribery and receiving contributions from foreign nationals. Adams has denied the charges, but even if he somehow won at trial — this seems unlikely — the political damage is done. When the federal investigations into his administration and campaign were just burbling up, Adams was already deeply unpopular. His poll numbers were plummeting. He was going to struggle to win re-election.

Now that possibility has been foreclosed, though Adams may believe otherwise. If he forges onward to the June Democratic primary, he will not win. His political base, centered in the working-class outer borough neighborhoods of New York, is shrinking, and there will be plenty of contenders free of recent scandal to take him on. In 2021, he won the primary by less than 10,000 votes, and many of the Democrats who put him on their ballots will not do so again.

Will Adams resign? So far, he is taking the Trumpian approach: not apologizing, not admitting guilt and hoping his luck starts to turn. Trump had the advantage of the presidency and the kingly powers it bestows on whoever occupies the White House. Trump had constitutional protections Adams simply lacks. Adams cannot delay this corruption trial indefinitely.

It’s plausible more indictments will come. There are at least three other federal probes into his administration. His police commissioner and counsel have already resigned. The FBI has seized the phones of many of his top officials, including his schools chancellor.

Gov. Kathy Hochul, a fellow Democrat, has the power to remove him from office. She probably won’t. She is still something of an Adams ally and might fear the optics of a white governor pulling a Black mayor out of City Hall before he’s convicted of a crime. She will sit back and wait.

Many politicians have called on Adams to resign. For now, they have only so much leverage. If Adams does, it will be the U.S. attorney’s office that drives him out, perhaps striking a deal for Adams to spend a limited amount of time in prison or avoid incarceration altogether. We do not know what’s coming next.

His police commissioner and counsel have already resigned. The FBI has seized the phones of many of his top officials, including his schools chancellor.

If Adams does resign, Jumaane Williams, the public advocate, becomes acting mayor. By law, Williams must call a special election, which would be nonpartisan and held about three months later. That election, like the primary, would be held under the new ranked-choice voting system, in which voters can pick up to five candidates. This creates the possibility for cross-endorsements, guards against vote-splitting and rewards less polarizing contenders.

Williams would be a top candidate to replace Adams. Like the current mayor, he hails from the Black working class, and he has a much stronger relationship with the progressive left. Another contender from the progressive wing of the party, City Comptroller Brad Lander, is running, as well. A 2021 candidate, former City Comptroller Scott Stringer, is launching another mayoral bid. Several state legislators who are less well-known are already in the race, with another expected to enter soon.

The wild card is former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Three years ago, he resigned the governorship in disgrace following accusations of sexual harassment and fostering a hostile work environment (he’s denied the allegations). He craves redemption. He is both beloved and reviled; among certain Democrats, his Covid-era press conferences are recalled very fondly. Others remember he authorized sending Covid patients to nursing homes, where the virus spread unchecked. Other candidates could gang up on him and drag him down in the polls, and ranked-choice voting may not be his friend. Adams’ scandals could remind New Yorkers of Cuomo’s past.

Regardless, because of his name recognition and political skill, Cuomo must be considered a front-runner in a post-Adams world. No matter what, these next few months will be unlike any we’ve ever witnessed in the history of New York City.

Ross Barkan

Ross Barkan is a writer and journalist from New York City.