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Andy Burnham is set to become Labour leader on Friday, July 17 and British Prime Minister on Monday, July 20. In between, on Sunday, July 19, England could win the World Cup (no, really).
For Burnham, a lifelong soccer fan, it would be quite the weekend.
Some commentators — including IPSOS pollster Keiran Pedley — have even suggested that, in such circumstances, Burnham should call a snap election to ride a wave of national euphoria and secure his own political mandate.
Given Labour’s commanding majority in Parliament, that is unlikely to happen. But the suggestion hints at soccer’s extraordinary power to shape the national mood — something politicians, and especially new prime ministers, ignore at their peril.
Coming up next week on POLITICO’s Westminster Insider podcast, host Patrick Baker asks how soccer shapes our politics, and examines what politicians should — and should not — do in order to use soccer to their advantage.
Sometimes it is about timing. Former Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson, buoyed by memories of watching England win in 1966, called an election four years later during the Mexico World Cup of 1970. He was banking on England’s dominance boosting the public mood and, in turn, his election chances. But England crashed out of the tournament to West Germany days before the poll and Wilson lost the election.
Other times it is about authenticity. While there’s never been any doubt that Keir Starmer is a genuine Arsenal fan or that Andy Burnham is a devoted Everton supporter, the enthusiasm of some politicians for their club teams has appeared less convincing. Aston Villa fan David Cameron famously said he supported West Ham in a speech during the 2015 election campaign, which he won despite the flub.
For politicians seeking to speak for the whole U.K., remembering Scotland (on the brink of crashing out of the World Cup), Wales and Northern Ireland (neither made it to the tournament) matters too.
And in a sport capable of both uniting and dividing, ministers and prime ministers alike have often discovered that criticizing players, managers or fans can carry political risks of its own.
Politics and soccer: How to play the game. Listen to Westminster Insider next Friday, July 3.
EAST RUTHERFORD, New Jersey — Before the World Cup began, New York and New Jersey unveiled competing transportation plans.
After several matches, $20 shuttle buses subsidized by New York keep selling out, but $98 New Jersey Transit train trips don’t.
Now New Jersey Transit is poised to lose millions during the tournament, blaming the revenue shortfall on lower-than-expected demand caused in part by the cheaper options. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has suggested maybe that is because of the sticker shock fans face to get on New Jersey trains and buses — an observation sure to rub salt in Jersey’s wounds.
The tensions are just the latest manifestation of a dysfunctional relationship between the two jurisdictions that comprise what FIFA calls “New York New Jersey,” where England and Panama will face off today in their final group-stage match.
After the tournament’s first game New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium — between Brazil and Morocco on June 13 — lines swelled in the parking lot for New York-run buses back to Manhattan. Worried about a crowd stuck at MetLife, the New Jersey State Police asked New Jersey’s state-run transit agency to carry some of the waiting fans instead.
New Jersey Transit had room for 40,000 people but only about 22,000 customers that night. It had spent months on a plan that was moving people quickly and did not want to suddenly upend it with an unexpected surge in passengers on its trains and buses. The agency fears a repeat of the 2014 Super Bowl, in which overcrowding left fans in the same stadium’s parking lot for hours and stained the agency’s reputation for years.
Kris Kolluri, the head of New Jersey Transit, said the bistate host committee, the New Jersey governor’s office and the State Police all decided that the transit agency would move thousands of people after 90 minutes, if needed. By then, however, the lines had calmed on their own.
The asphalt standoff stemmed in part from the cross-Hudson divide over pricing.
The border states separated by the Hudson River are symbiotic — New York companies depend on workers commuting from New Jersey suburbs — and also apt to squabble over everything from how to deal with the mob and fight wildfires to what state Ellis Island is in.
Perhaps over no issue do they bicker more than transportation. Unlike other regions that have a unified transit system, the New York City metropolitan area has three public transit agencies. The states have fought over tolls (a New Jersey governor once threatened a “nuclear option” when New York created new ones), how to split the check for big infrastructure projects and how to staff their bistate Port Authority.
“Transportation is too important for any mayor or governor to give up power to any other mayor or governor,” said Mitchell Moss, a longtime New York City urban planning adviser who is also a professor at New York University.
Things went more smoothly at MetLife following a French win over Senegal and despite a deluge before and after another Senegal loss at MetLife to Norway. After the Norway win, the first New Jersey Transit train got to Penn Station in 35 minutes. The average shuttle bus back to Manhattan took 45 minutes or less.
But there continued to be a behind-the-scenes back and forth over whether New Jersey Transit should lower its prices to get more people aboard.
For fans from the world who don’t immediately come to the region and begin following local politicians, transit planners or local gadflies on X, much of the back and forth is invisible. Yet consequences of two states that don’t see eye to eye are affecting how they come and go from the eight matches, including the July 19 final.
As soon as New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s administration in April unveiled plans to charge fans $150 for a roundtrip ticket to the World Cup, Hochul worried it would throw “cold water” on the tournament and helped create a competing $20 shuttle bus.
Sherrill cut the price to $98, but that’s still higher than any other public transit system, and now New Jersey Transit trains are only two-thirds full. Her administration quietly blames the low-cost shuttle buses for siphoning away customers.
Allies of both governors have framed the opposite approaches as affordability-minded: Hochul wants a low price to signal that New York is welcoming the world. Sherrill wants the high price to cover the cost of providing a special service, and to prevent her voters from subsidizing trips for out-of-town fans to an event few locals can afford to attend.
In the real world, the cheaper bus tickets are selling out, while New York officials remain concerned New Jersey Transit’s high prices mean it isn’t carrying its load. New Jersey Transit, on the other hand, is proud of a smooth-running operation, which Sherrill has described as “the best option” for getting to matches.
Bistate tensions over transportation planning predate Sherrill and Hochul, but aren’t inevitable. Both Democrats only a few months ago worked together to restart construction on a new train tunnel between the states that President Donald Trump cut off funding for. But ongoing fighting could represent challenges for other bistate ventures, like a long-awaited overhaul of New York’s Penn Station on which the states will be asked to cooperate.
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