Politics
Dems are trying everything in battlegrounds. Republicans are sticking with Trump.
Republicans are betting their path to victory in 2026 runs through MAGA. Democrats are still figuring out how to win.
Two-thirds of the way through primary season, results from dozens of hotly contested battlegrounds across the country reveal a Republican Party that remains fully captured by President Donald Trump, even in swing districts that have at times rejected his brand, and a Democratic Party that is still consumed by factional infighting over how to win.
The implications are huge: If Republicans can win even competitive seats with MAGA candidates, that can further entrench the populist far right’s hold on the party. But if they suffer sweeping losses, that could bolster the more moderate GOP wing’s push for a return to power.
Democrats, meanwhile, will have plenty to study in November as they search for clues to winning back the White House in 2028. They’ve nominated an array of candidates, from far-left progressives to traditional centrists.
“The proof is going to be in the pudding,” said Larry Ceisler, a Democratic-aligned Pennsylvania-based public affairs executive. “Can these people win competitive general elections? And that’s going to be a lesson that’s going to go into ‘28.”
Republican voters have rallied behind candidates who closely align themselves with Trump and the MAGA brand, from Rep. Mike Collins and billionaire Rick Jackson in Georgia, to Bobby Charles and Marty O’Donnell in Nevada’s 3rd District. Trump-endorsed candidates have largely won their primaries this year, with a few high-profile exceptions in Iowa, Georgia and South Carolina, where Trump ended up endorsing both Republicans in the gubernatorial runoff at the last minute.
Democrats are being pulled by competing visions for their party’s future. For Texas Senate, Democrats chose buttoned-up James Talarico, but for Maine Senate they picked scandal-plagued Graham Platner. For New York’s 17th District on Tuesday, Democrats nominated no-nonsense and establishment-aligned veteran Cait Conley, but in California’s 22nd District, voters bucked party leadership and chose a firebrand progressive in Randy Villegas.
The results could turn Trump into a lame duck the last two years of his term, test the power of his brand a decade after he first ascended, and set in motion the direction of both parties ahead of the next presidential election.
Republicans bet on MAGA
The question of whether MAGA can win in battlegrounds has dogged the GOP in recent years, with loyalists like Kari Lake losing key races in 2022 and down-ballot Republicans trailing Trump in 2024.
They’re not changing tack.
Even as the president’s popularity sags, driven by dissatisfaction with the economy, his aggressive deportations and an unpopular war in Iran, the Republican base voters who drive the primaries are continuing to nominate MAGA candidates, not moderates.
That bucks conventional wisdom, which holds that a general election victory, especially in competitive races, requires assembling a broader coalition — one where Trump’s endorsement may not always help. A recent POLITICO Poll found that receiving Trump’s backing provoked a stronger negative reaction from voters who are opposed to the president than a positive one from those who support him, making it a net negative for a hypothetical candidate.
That is a dynamic Republican candidates will need to navigate in the months ahead — a particularly delicate balancing act for those who embraced the president’s agenda during the primary, but now must try to win over a more diverse segment of the electorate.
In Georgia, the Trump-backed Collins prevailed in last week’s GOP Senate runoff after leaning into his MAGA credentials. Now, he transitions to a match-up against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, where appealing to a broader coalition of voters could prove equally as important as energizing the Republican base.
MAGA-aligned candidates also triumphed in Maine, with Charles gunning for the governor’s mansion and former Republican Gov. Paul LePage seeking to flip moderate Democrat Rep. Jared Golden’s now-open House seat. And in Nevada’s 2nd District, Trump-endorsed McDonnell, who just recently came under fire for hosting a Nazi on his podcast, is trying to pick off Democratic Rep. Susie Lee — one of the Republican Party’s top targets.
Even candidates who didn’t gain the president’s endorsement have ridden his brand to victory. Jackson won the GOP nomination for Georgia governor over a Trump-backed candidate, vowing to be “Trump’s favorite governor” and touting his support for the president’s agenda.
Still, Jason Roe, a Michigan-based GOP strategist, said MAGA is “baked into the Republican brand at this point,” so there’s “very little risk” for candidates to embrace Trump during a primary before pivoting to the general election.
The Democratic party throws everything at the wall
Democrats have one point of unity: They’re messaging against the party in power.
Most of their candidates push back against Trump and argue they would do a far better job addressing the nation’s cost of living, repeatedly the top issue for voters, than Republicans have.
But the party’s clashes over identity and charged issues like Israel and the war in Gaza have been on full display across some of the most-high profile matchups.
Voters “are looking for, ‘Hey, who is the right candidate that can actually win and represent me best in where I live?’” said Andres Ramirez, a Nevada-based Democratic consultant. “Where progressives can do well, they’re going to do well, where moderates can do well, they’re going to do well, and the full spectrum in between.”
Progressives have seen a slate of victories, including Villegas in California’s 22nd District and Matt Dunlap in Maine’s 2nd District. And Platner, despite being mired in controversy, crushed Maine Gov. Janet Mills even before the primary officially took place. All three defeated establishment choices backed by Democrats’ official campaign arms, a sign the party lacks the kind of total control that Trump enjoys over the GOP.
But moderates haven’t been far behind, with veterans like Conley winning in New York and Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey’s 7th District. In some of this year’s top battlegrounds, establishment-backed candidates have advanced, including Aaron Ford in Nevada and Josh Turek in Iowa.
Then there’s the faceoff next week in Colorado between Manny Rutinel, a progressive, and establishment-backed Shannon Bird and the brutal showdown later this summer in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, where progressive Abdul El-Sayed is leading two more moderate challengers, Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.
The midterms will help give the party clues about what kind of Democrats are best poised to win ahead of 2028 — but it has also turbocharged an ideological civil war between the different wings of the party, especially as progressives have gained ground in both deep-blue and battleground districts.
Jesse Ferguson, a longtime Democratic strategist, said that in some of the nation’s swingiest districts, “the most electable candidates” are largely prevailing.
“There will be lots of debate about winning primaries in places like NYC and what that means for 2028, but the most important races — the ones in the swing districts — are being won by the candidates who give us the best chance to win the majority in 2026,” said Ferguson. “That’s what matters.”
LAS VEGAS — Vice President JD Vance has faced skepticism from some in the Jewish Republican community. He waded directly into the fray Monday — and was met with raucous applause.
In a closed-door appearance at the Republican Jewish Coalition leadership summit, Vance addressed what he called the “elephant in the room”: Israel’s plummeting favorability among young Americans, according to one people in the room for Vance’s speech, granted anonymity to describe an off-record conversation, and audio of the event obtained by Blue Light News. Vance also discussed rising antisemitism.
“There is a growing suspicion among, I would call it, under-40s of the U.S.-Israel relationship,” Vance said in a moderated conversation with former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), chair of the RJC board. “I think my view is, what we have to do is articulate why this is in the best interest of the United States of America, and actually get out there and talk about the ways in which it is in the best interest of the United States of America.”
Vance noted that Republicans must “talk about the concrete alignment of interest and to hook a relationship on that, rather than something that may have made a lot of sense rhetorically 30 or 40 years ago, but just doesn’t have … the same purchase as it did 30 or 40 years ago because the country is different and because young people are looking at this in a different way.”
Vance’s appearance at the annual RJC confab — hosted at the Venetian Resort, developed by the late GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson — came as a surprise to many in the pro-Israel community, with which Vance has shared a sometimes tumultuous relationship. Vance, the current frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, will likely need to shore up support from the community to succeed Trump.
The hesitancy toward Vance among some in pro-Israel circles boiled up in recent months over Vance’s dovishness on the Iran war and his criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government. But other concerns go back further, centered on his longtime relationship with Israel-skeptical pundit Tucker Carlson and the way he’s addressed antisemitic incidents or statements.
Some pro-Israel megadonors, like billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin, have already signaled they’d support Secretary of State Marco Rubio in 2028 over Vance. (Neither Vance nor Rubio have announced whether they’ll seek the presidential nomination, though Rubio has stated he will not run if Vance does.)
But Vance’s speech was met with applause inside the cavernous convention hall where it was delivered, and praise outside of it.
“He hit a home run with the crowd,” Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) told reporters after the speech, noting Vance received “several standing ovations.”
The Jewish community has “a great ‘bullshit detector,’ to understand when they’re being pandered to,” said Matt Brooks, CEO of the RJC. “And I don’t believe that anybody will come away from this meeting thinking that they were pandered to. I think they will come away from this conversation with a sense that the vice president really gets it and gets us.”
Last year, the RJC’s leadership summit was centered on combatting antisemitism within the Republican Party, and leaders took aim at Carlson and others. Vance has been an ally of Carlson’s, and when Coleman asked Vance about podcasters like Carlson, Vance gave a winding answer.
“I recognize a lot of people in this room may disagree with things that Tucker Carlson or Megyn Kelly or Joe Rogan have said,” Vance said, before focusing on Rogan and Fuentes, saying they are “two very, very different categories of people.”
“I think it’s a mistake to sort of say we’re going to write Joe Rogan off because he said something that we don’t like,” he said. “I think the best approach is to actually go in there and talk to him and make the argument as best as you can.”
Vance directly condemned some antisemitic theories like blood libel, saying it is the exact opposite of the Christian gospel. He said that Jew-hatred is “corrosive to the soul.”
And echoing other speakers at the two-day RJC summit, Vance declared that former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is the most important Senate candidate this cycle, and urged those in attendance to support him in his race against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed.
Earlier Monday, Vance rallied alongside Rogers at a Michigan event hosted by MAGA Inc., Trump’s super PAC, before flying to Nevada. His cross-country itinerary signaled his seriousness in courting the Jewish donor community, suggested Robert Schostak, an RJC board member.
“I think it’s great that he’s here. This is not easy,” said Schostak, the former Michigan GOP chair. “He cares about the fight of antisemitism, and the support for Israel. If this was secondary to him, he wouldn’t be here.”
Ari Fleischer, an RJC board member and a former White House press secretary, agreed. “Today is not primary day,” he said. “But I think today was progress day for JD Vance with the Jewish community.”
Allies of Texas GOP Senate hopeful Ken Paxton are planning a $15 million ad campaign starting Tuesday, the first major ad buy on behalf of Paxton in his battleground matchup with Democrat James Talarico.
Two new ads from Lone Star Liberty PAC, the pro-Paxton super PAC, will air across 18 markets across Texas over the ensuing two weeks. They mark Paxton’s first significant foray on to the airwaves, jolting a campaign that has been clouded by concerns over Talarico’s massive cash advantage and Paxton’s electability.
One of the new ads will lean into Paxton’s record as attorney general, highlighting Texas’ recent agreement with Kellogg’s to remove certain food dyes from cereals and the state’s billion-dollar settlements with Meta and Google over privacy and safety concerns.
“When they come after Texans, he comes after them,” a voiceover says in the ad.
The other new advertisement accuses Talarico of aiding China’s growth at the expense of Texas residents, pointing to the Democrat’s vote against restrictions on Chinese investments, and argues that a Chinese billionaire’s ownership of land near Laughlin Air Force Base presents national security concerns.
“China’s got Talarico. Texas needs Ken Paxton,” the ad says.
“[James Talarico] voted to sell Texas land to China, pushed a Texas Green New Deal that would gut our oil and gas jobs, and stood with criminals over cops as the most pro-criminal member of the Texas House,” Lone Star Liberty spokesperson Sam Cooper said. “That record is too extreme for Texas. Between now and Election Day, voters are going to hear it.”
Talarico’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The multimillion-dollar campaign comes as Republicans look for ways to negate Talarico’s war chest. The latest Federal Election Commission filings from July show Talarico with $21.5 million in the bank, dwarfing Paxton’s $1.8 million in reserves.
That advantage, along with Paxton’s drawn-out primary runoff that forced him to focus on beating Sen. John Cornyn, has allowed Talarico to dominate the general election messaging battle on television. He’s spent $39 million on TV since the March primary, according to data tracking firm AdImpact.
On Saturday, Talarico launched his first negative ad against Paxton, spotlighting his impeachment and labeling him “the most corrupt politician in Texas.”
Although Republicans have traditionally been favored in Texas statewide elections, Democrats are optimistic Talarico can defeat Paxton. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll released Thursday found Talarico leading Paxton — 48 percent to 42 percent.
Concerns about a potential Paxton defeat have prompted some Republicans to implore President Donald Trump to invest some of the gargantuan MAGA Inc. war chest in the Texas race. MAGA Inc. has over $400 million in cash on hand, and Trump publicly pledged to support Paxton financially.
Republicans and Democrats are fighting over working class voters. Americans don’t believe the rhetoric.
Fifty-five percent of Americans think politicians are just trying to win votes when they say they will help the working class, according to new results from The Blue Light News Poll. It’s a view held by majorities of people who voted for President Donald Trump, who voted for Kamala Harris and who self-identify as working class.
Only one in four Americans who self-identify as working-class say politicians genuinely want to help them.
That wariness comes as both parties increasingly see working class voters as key to their winning coalitions. But The POLITICO Poll results show both parties face serious challenges to doing so.
Neither party does particularly well with Americans who identify as working class: 38 percent of them say Democrats best represent them, while 32 percent say Republicans. Americans, broadly, are almost identically split, with a 37 percent plurality saying Democrats best represent the interests of the working class, while 30 percent say Republicans.
Democrats wrestling with how to win back voters who have drifted toward the GOP — as their coalition has grown increasingly dominated by college-educated Americans — are locked in an intraparty battle over which wing of the party, progressives or moderates, best speaks to these voters.
“We’ve struggled with the working class for quite a while and it’s been a combination of being out of touch with working class values on a lot of culture issues and being seen as either not helpful or not helpful enough on economic issues,” said Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), widely considered the leader of the progressive movement, told Playbook’s Will Steakin that progressive Democrats “are speaking to the needs of working families.”
“It is not just traditional Democrats or independents,” he said. “There are a lot of working-class Republicans who understand that there’s something wrong when we are the only major nation on Earth not to guarantee health care to all people.”
Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to hold onto the gains Trump made in 2024 with working class voters — including Black and Latino voters frustrated with the Biden-era economy — at a time when cost of living remains voters’ top concern.
“With the [Iran] war, with gas prices, with cost of food, the working class is not happy with the president, and many who are independents and even some Republicans have said that he’s forgotten about them,” said former Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Renacci.
Who is working class?
Complicating both parties’ efforts to win over these voters is that Americans do not agree on what makes someone working class. Neither do lawmakers and party officials.
When asked whether the term “working class” describes them, a 59 percent majority of Americans broadly say it does, while just 31 percent say it does not, according to the survey conducted by London-based polling firm Public First. But when forced to choose from a list of labels — including wealthy, middle class, lower middle class, working class and poor — just 16 percent of adults say they identify as “working class.”
Americans are also divided over what characteristics define the working class.
Some politicians, including progressive New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Andy Schor, the centrist Democratic mayor of Lansing, Michigan, have argued the definition of working class is expansive — encompassing anyone who needs to work to pay their bills.
“If you’re not making enough money that you don’t have to work, then you’re working class,” said Schor in an interview. “The American Dream is to be able to work hard and get ahead, and people are not getting ahead like they used to, and they’ll look at the folks that they vote for and think, ‘Who can help me to get ahead?’”
The Blue Light News Poll illustrates the difficult path for the GOP to solidify its gains with working class Americans as economic concerns continue to be top of mind: More than a third of this group say they are not currently employed. A 35 percent plurality also say Trump, not former President Joe Biden, is fully responsible for the economy and many oppose the war in Iran, which most say has made things more expensive for them.
Half of self-identified working class Americans say Trump has spent too much time focusing on international affairs instead of on domestic issues.
“I think [Republican candidates] just got to tell the truth,” Renacci, the Ohio Republican, said. “You just have to start realizing that those middle class voters are struggling and they’re just looking for somebody who’s going to understand their issues and problems.”
The race for 2026
November will offer a major test of whether each party’s working class pitch is working, carrying implications that extend into 2028.
Candidates in both parties are racing to flex their working class bonafides this cycle, leaning on their biographies to signal ties to these voters. Trump pushed that playbook to extremes in 2024, when he briefly worked the fryer and drive-through window at McDonald’s as part of a campaign swing through Pennsylvania.
Republicans have continued that approach, with candidates and administration officials emphasizing their blue-collar roots on the campaign trail. Vice President JD Vance recently returned to his hometown of Middletown, Ohio, where he spoke at the steel plant where his grandfather worked.
In battleground Georgia, Rep. Mike Collins — the state’s GOP Senate nominee — often touts his background as a trucker. And GOP Sen. Susan Collins has broken with Trump on tariff policy, saying his trade fight with Canada hurts working families and small businesses in Maine, where she’s locked in a competitive battle for reelection.
These efforts come against the backdrop of increasing concerns about the economy, fueled by the ongoing Iran war.
Democrats, meanwhile, are divided over which flank of the party can best appeal to working class voters, a fissure that burst into public view during primary season, when a slate of progressives prevailed in high-profile contests.
“The working class are giving Democrats another look and we better not blow it,” said Kessler of Third Way. “Donald Trump got reelected based on the notion he was going to fight for you, working class men and women, and his first year and a half has been anything but that.”
Some Democrats have made their working class background central to their pitch: Sam Forstag, a union leader and former smokejumper, is running in an open district in western Montana that Trump won by double digits in 2024. Bob Brooks, a firefighter union chief, is challenging GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania.
But some progressives are still running into limits: In Michigan, one of Democrats’ must-hold seats in November, the state’s divisive Senate primary illustrated that debate in real-time. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed, who won the Democratic nomination, performed best in the state’s wealthiest and most highly educated areas, while moderate Rep. Haley Stevens did better in places with lower average incomes and where fewer votes have college degrees.
Jessie Blaeser contributed to this report.
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