Politics

Democrats see an opening on the economy after Trump’s trade war wreaks havoc on global markets

Published

1 year ago

April 11, 2025

Democrats are targeting Donald Trump’s weakened standing on the economy — even after the president paused his far-reaching reciprocal tariff policy that reverberated across global markets.

In interviews with more than a dozen Democratic lawmakers, congressional staffers and media strategists, many in the party see a prime opportunity to attack Trump on a key campaign promise they argue he’s failing to deliver — a message likely to be featured prominently in political ads if the economy continues to falter. Some candidates are already hitting tariffs in campaign launch ads, while the party is planning to capitalize on anger over the economy, among other issues, in upcoming town halls.

It’s an opportunity for Democrats on the economy, a major point of strength for Trump in his presidential campaign last year, even as they conceded the economic crisis had eased somewhat after the president paused some — but not all — tariffs on most countries. On Thursday afternoon, Trump clarified that the combined tariffs on Chinese goods is now at 145 percent. Most other nations will be subject to the 10 percent baseline tariff the administration levied last week. The markets reacted accordingly, with stocks plummeting at the end of the day.

Now, Democrats are banking on rising panic in worldwide markets and fears of a recession to knock Republicans down.

“We heard for five freaking months going into the last election, people beating up Biden and Harris about inflation, and the price of fucking eggs,” said longtime Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, who worked on both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “So why the hell would we make [ads] about tariffs, as opposed to making it about the economy?”

He said Trump is presenting one of the most favorable gateways to Democrats in recent history, imploring Democrats not to squander the week of earned media about a near-global market implosion.

“There is an opportunity here, of historical proportions, given the advantage on the economy writ large that Republicans have had for decades,” he added. “You see Trump underwater on handling the economy and fighting inflation and bringing down costs – that is a major opening and a historic way for Democrats to take away what has been a major positive for Republicans.”

And recent polling backs up that claim that voters are waning on Trump’s economic stewardship. An Economist/YouGov poll of about 1,700 American adults released Wednesday showed Trump’s overall approval rating drop five percentage points from last week, combined with a four percentage-point drop in his handling of the economy. A poll from the Democratic group Navigator Research released Tuesday also showed 55 percent of 1,000 registered voters disapproving of Trump’s handling of the economy, an eight percentage-point swing since the group’s last poll in March. Another recent poll from the liberal group Data For Progress also showed a majority disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.

Not every poll showed dramatic changes. In a poll of 1,400 registered voters released Wednesday that was conducted April 3-7 from Quinnipiac, Trump’s handling of the economy and his overall approval rating remained steady or dropped only slightly.

Democrats and their affiliated groups are already blaming Trump for his scattershot tariff rollout as a way to pummel vulnerable Republicans in elections later this year and heading into the midterms.

Hours before Trump announced the tariff pause, the Democratic-aligned super PAC American Bridge released audio of Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the GOP gubernatorial nominee, praising Trump’s tariff plan. Democrat Mike Sacks announced his candidacy Wednesday in a nearly two and a half minute ad. It featured an image of the word “tariff” nine times in bold red font along with a crimson-color graphic of a stock market plunging that was superimposed over the face of his opponent, incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), widely considered one of the most vulnerable House Republicans next cycle.

The Democratic-aligned group Families Over Billionaires, a nonprofit, is putting six figures into an ad running on social media and streaming platforms bashing the Trump administration over tax plans, and Democrats are planning a new round of town halls in GOP-held House districts over the upcoming recess.

Democrats argue the upheaval Trump injected into the economy undercuts the central premise that he campaigned on: that as a businessperson would be best positioned to grow the economy.

“The one thing that American voters want is security and safety. What they don’t want is chaos and uncertainty,” said Alex Jacquez, a former economic adviser to former president Biden who is now chief of policy for Groundwork Collaborative. “I think why you’ve seen such rapid deterioration on his approvals on the economy and on cost of living, tariffs and trade, is because not a single action that he has taken has been in service of addressing people’s number one concern, which is cost of living.”

And that is precisely what has Democratic admakers salivating.

“Keep it simple and keep it tangible and keep it relatable to everyone’s lives here,” said veteran media strategist Julian Mulvey, who has cut ads for Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris. He urged Democrats and affiliated groups to not overcomplicate their messaging by talking about esoteric economic concepts like supply chains and capital markets.

Instead, he referenced the “you break it, you own it” doctrine of politics.

“Trump is sort of charging headlong into breaking the economy and, and he’s going to find out when he does,” he said. “Or in the modern vernacular: fuck around and find out.”

The White House, meanwhile, criticized the Democrats’ planned strategy.

“President Trump is the first president in modern American history to take decisive action to finally corner China and restore American Greatness,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement. “If Democrats see an opportunity in President Trump and Republicans standing up for everyday Americans and restoring American Greatness, they’re headed for a worse election night than November 5, 2024.”

Several Democratic media strategists acknowledged it’s too early to say what the economy will look like when prime time campaign season hits. But that hasn’t stopped progressive strategists like Chuck Rocha from storyboarding what the anti-Trump attack ads will look like in the coming months.

“The best way to deliver the ad is from one of his voters, a white guy in his 50s who works in a steel mill, works at whatever the place down the street is that says: ‘Look, I don’t really care about either party. I voted for Donald Trump because I thought he would change a rigged system,” Rocha said of a hypothetical ad that features someone speaking directly to camera. “But he’s even rigging it more, and he’s rigging it for himself.”

And that’s on top of the party’s already established playbook around Elon Musk’s sledgehammer to government. Some Democratic ad-makers said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutinck’s comments about “fraudsters” getting Social Security checks was bound to backfire.

It’s something that’s caught the attention of lawmakers too, including Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), who won reelection in a key swing state that Trump flipped last year. The representative is one of 26 Democrats that the Republican campaign arm is targeting in the midterms.

“Market manipulation … that’s what happened,” Horsford said on Wednesday. “On the same day that they’re screwing America.” Horsford was referring to Trump’s social media post this week where the president proclaimed: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY.”

Politics

Former ICE official falls short in Ohio battleground district GOP primary

Published

5 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Former ICE official Madison Sheahan lost a GOP primary in a battleground Ohio House district on Tuesday, a relief to Republicans who worried she could sabotage their chances of flipping the seat.

Former state Rep. Derek Merrin won the GOP nomination in the 9th Congressional District for the second cycle in a row, and will face Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in November. He lost to Kaptur by less than one percentage point in 2024.

Republicans see the seat as a prime pickup opportunity after the Ohio legislature redrew the state’s congressional map to make the district more favorable for Republicans.

Merrin’s victory comes with a sigh of relief from Republicans in the state who raised concerns about Sheahan’s background — she served as former deputy ICE director under former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem — being a soft target for Kaptur in a general election.

Sheahan drew attacks from fellow Republicans in the primary for her role in overseeing President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement operations in major cities, which triggered violent confrontations and protests.

Those clashes culminated in the killing of two American citizens by immigration officials in Minneapolis. Sheahan launched her campaign days after the killing of Renee Good, but before the death of Alex Pretti.

Trump didn’t endorse ahead of the primary, but the race was defined in part by candidates seeking to be the most MAGA candidate in the field. Sheahan ran TV ads touting her role at ICE and her connection to the Trump administration. Merrin went up with an ad in the race’s final days highlighting the endorsement he received from Trump during his 2024 campaign.

Kaptur starts the general election fight with a significant resource advantage over Merrin. Federal Election Commission filings from mid-April showed Kaptur with $3.1 million in cash on hand, dwarfing Merrin’s $189,000 in reserves.

Both the DCCC and the NRCC are expected to invest significantly in the race.

Politics

‘The Kamala Harris problem’: Vance’s 2028 hopes hinge on Trump, Iowa Republicans say

Published

5 hours ago

May 6, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

DES MOINES, Iowa — Vice President JD Vance was greeted warmly by Republicans in Iowa on Tuesday, with would-be caucus goers and strategists optimistically curious about his potential as a 2028 presidential contender.

But first, they’re hoping he can help turn the economy around.

Vance’s fate is unavoidably linked to President Donald Trump’s. He’ll either carry the mantle of Trump’s accomplishments all the way into his own term in the White House — or be dragged down by Trump’s dismal approval ratings, which have spiraled amid an unpopular war in Iran and voters’ economic pessimism.

During Vance’s first trip as vice president to the early caucus state — where he was campaigning for Republican Rep. Zach Nunn at a rally in a manufacturing warehouse in this battleground House district — Vance’s close ties with Trump were on full display. He credited the president repeatedly for tariffs, tax cuts and agriculture industry aid. And he avoided any mention of 2028.

But his association with Trump’s agenda presents a high-risk, high-reward proposition that could make or break his political future, operatives and rallygoers said.

“That’s the risk of being part of an administration,” Iowa GOP strategist David Kochel said. “This is the Kamala Harris problem.”

Rep. Randy Feenstra, who is running for governor, said in between shaking hands with attendees that Iowans “absolutely” associate Vance with Trump and expressed confidence that the White House can deliver outcomes that benefit the state.

“We’re all in this together,” he said. “We trust Trump and the vice president and what they’re doing, and things are going to be great.”

Republicans in Iowa are loath to turn their back on Trump, the 2024 caucus winner who remains deeply popular among the base. Faded Trump-Vance campaign signs still line the rural roads around the state, and Iowa Republicans said they remained largely optimistic that Trump, with Vance by his side, can steer the economy in the right direction.

In a brief post-rally interview, Nunn said part of the benefit of the vice president’s trip was allowing Iowa Republican officials to “share what they want to see out of the next leader in 2028.”

But Americans’ patience for the administration’s economic policy to have a positive effect is wearing thin. A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday found 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy and 76 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of cost of living issues. And even as Vance blamed former President Joe Biden’s administration for the teetering economy, an April POLITICO Poll found 46 percent of Americans feel Trump bears at least some responsibility for the state of the economy.

And the economic effects of Trump’s policies are particularly hard felt in Iowa’s vast agriculture industry. Trump’s tariff regime blocked off markets that had been reliable purchasers of U.S. agriculture goods, while the war in Iran has spiked the cost of diesel, which farmers depend on heavily.

Jake Chapman, a former president of the Iowa Senate who has advised multiple Republican presidential candidates in Iowa, said the conflict and the trade negotiations with other countries are top of mind for Iowa Republicans.

“A lot of people are thinking about foreign policy in particular, and how that impacts ag inputs and our agriculture economy,” he said.

In his speech, Vance acknowledged that the Trump administration hasn’t fully delivered on its economic promises. “We got a lot more work to do,” Vance told the crowd of hundreds. “We recognize that work. We’re excited about that work. That’s why you sent us to Washington, D.C.”

Still, those negative feelings towards Trump appear to be spilling over to Vance. That same poll found 48 percent of Americans disapprove of Vance — slightly worse than other senior Trump administration officials, including FBI Director Kash Patel, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and fellow potential 2028 candidate Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rubio’s ascension in the 2028 shadow primary — both in the eyes of Americans and in standing with Trump’s inner circle — further complicates Vance’s path to the nomination. Eric Branstad, the son of former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and adviser to Trump’s three presidential campaigns in Iowa, said Vance’s portfolio may not resonate with Iowans as much as Rubio’s in an administration juggling multiple high-profile foreign conflicts.

“They’ve watched the secretary of state completely perform. He’s been put in all of the tough spots, and he has overperformed,” Branstad said. “The vice president is performing great. It’s just not been as noticeable as the secretary of state.”

Vance, however, has gotten an early start on building a campaign infrastructure, should he so choose to activate it. He has been a frequent surrogate and fundraiser for the GOP’s midterm operation and has campaigned for Republicans in battleground seats around the country. On Tuesday, he voted in Ohio’s competitive 1st District GOP primary and headlined a fundraiser in Oklahoma before travelling to Iowa.

“He’s the man who’s leading the charge to win the midterms,” Nunn said during his remarks.

Even as Vance stayed focused on this year’s elections on Tuesday, some Republicans are ready to look beyond the midterms. GOP gubernatorial candidate Adam Steen said on the outskirts of the rally he thinks Iowa Republicans are eager to organize around the next generation of party leadership.

“I don’t know why not just start talking about 2028,” Steen said. “We need to know who we’re going to be getting behind. And if they did that now, I don’t think it’d offend anybody. I think it’d be a great thing.”

The vice president’s office declined to comment on Vance’s thinking about a future presidential campaign.

Whether or not the vice president can carry the ideological torch for Trump’s political movement may depend on how closely Vance — or any 2028 hopeful — can align with Trump. Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann said at the rally he doesn’t believe the next Republican presidential nominee necessarily has to appeal directly to Trump’s base to be successful.

“The Republican Party is multifaceted,” Kaufmann said. “We have MAGA voters… We have Christian evangelicals, we have business, we have Libertarians. I think all of them together are going to unite around some of the basic principles that everybody shares.”

Yet being Trump’s vice president brings certain advantages with Republican voters. Even if Vance isn’t afforded the goodwill that brought the president a dominant wire-to-wire favorite in the 2024 Republican primaries, Kochel said Vance “gets one of the gold tickets” in the contest.

“[Vance] will be the front-runner going into any caucuses that we have here in Iowa,” GOP governor candidate and state Rep. Eddie Andrews said on the sidelines of Tuesday’s rally.

But Iowa caucusgoers are notoriously scrupulous when vetting future world leaders. And Nunn acknowledged that Vance will at some point need to forge his own path to leading the party.

“Nobody can walk in Donald Trump’s footsteps, because it’s Donald Trump,” Nunn said.