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Capitol agenda: Trump faces a midterms reality check

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President Donald Trump is heading into one of his most high-profile moments of the midterm year as he grapples with plunging public opinion and growing congressional dissent.

“It’s going to be a long one because we have so much to talk about,” Trump told reporters Monday.

Keep in mind: He already set the record last year with an hour-and-thirty-nine-minute SOTU address, so buckle in.

Here’s some of what to expect throughout the night:

— Tariff talk: Trump is likely to have words for the Supreme Court justices sitting right in front of him who last week ruled to overturn his sweeping tariff regime. The ruling represented a rare setback for Trump from the conservative high court.

It was especially significant as it becomes increasingly clear that Congress won’t be there to back up Trump, who could press for legislative action on tariffs Tuesday night. Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday it’s unlikely Congress will act to codify the president’s tariff agenda to comply with the ruling.

— DHS prognosis: The president could offer a hint at how long the partial government shutdown affecting Homeland Security agencies, now on Day 11, will last.

Democratic leaders, after a series of back-and-forth proposals with the White House, claim the administration isn’t serious about adopting stricter guardrails on federal immigration agents. The White House, meanwhile, signaled it was willing to play hardball by scaling back airport security operations in ways that could cause pain for travelers.

Watch to see if Trump provides more clarity on his negotiating position or simply takes aim at Democrats for challenging his immigration agenda.

— A midterm signal: Trump is facing abysmal approval ratings as he heads into midterm season, as voters increasingly disapprove of his handling of immigration, inflation and tariffs. But while the president walks into the House chamber Tuesday evening in a far weaker position than last year, he also has a huge opportunity to define his party’s campaign message.

Listen for Trump to define the direction of his final two years in the White House with an eye toward November. You can expect the embattled GOP lawmakers in the audience to be listening closely themselves as they grow more concerned about the public’s deteriorating view of his presidency.

“He is currently at his lowest point in the second term,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster in Washington. “The single most important variable in midterm elections is the president’s job approval.”

What else we’re watching:  

— Dems split on SOTU attendance: Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries will be in their seats for Trump’s SOTU address, but dozens of their members will be absent, with some attending alternative programming.

Some Democrats are instead sending Trump a pointed message with their guests of choice. Schumer, Jeffries and other Democrats have invited victims of Jeffrey Epstein to the building.

Others are bringing small business owners and Americans grappling with costly health care premiums since Congress failed to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies last year.

— House takes up aviation safety: A House and Senate fight over how to address the deadly January 2025 DCA crash is coming to a head Tuesday as Johnson attempts to muscle through the House floor a Senate-passed bill that some of his key committee chairs oppose.

— New housing bills incoming: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is unveiling legislation Tuesday morning that would limit the ability of large Wall Street investors to buy up homes — a policy goal that Trump is also pushing to include in Warren’s bipartisan housing bill with Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.).

Meanwhile, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) are introducing legislation Tuesday that would allow federally-insured credit unions to access additional mortgage lending capacity through the Federal Home Loan Bank System.

Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Eli Stokols, Hailey Fuchs, Robert King, Mia McCarthy, Sam Ogozalek, Oriana Pawlyk, Chris Marquette and Victoria Guida contributed to this report.

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Congress

Neal Dunn says he’ll serve out term, quashing resignation rumors

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Rep. Neal Dunn plans to serve out the rest of his term, a spokesperson said Monday, addressing rumors that the Florida Republican would resign early and potentially put the GOP House majority at risk.

The announcement comes after Speaker Mike Johnson said earlier this month he’d urged Dunn to stay in Congress. Senior House Republicans believed at the time that Dunn, who is facing health issues and announced his retirement in January, could step down in the coming months and further narrow the GOP’s majority.

“As a dedicated public servant, he will remain in Congress to represent his constituents through the end of this term,” spokesperson Eleanor Allison said in response to inquiries first made on Feb. 11.

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Tony Gonzales faces mounting pressure from GOP women over affair allegations

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Two prominent House Republican women castigated GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales Monday, applying major new pressure on the Texas lawmaker to address accusations that he had an affair with his staffer who later died by suicide.

Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado became the first Republican lawmaker to call for Gonzales’ resignation, and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida said Gonzales should be condemned over his alleged treatment of the woman.

Separately Monday, in his first comments on the matter, Speaker Mike Johnson called the allegations “very serious” but declined to call for further action as investigations into Gonzales play out. Rep. Brandon Gill, a fellow Texas Republican, also called Monday for Gonzales to resign.

Gonzales, who is in his third term representing a potentially competitive south Texas district, has previously denied having an improper relationship with the staffer, Regina Santos-Aviles, who died after lighting herself on fire in September.

The sordid allegations have come under intense public scrutiny in recent weeks as Gonzales faces a heated primary election, fueling widespread speculation about his future in politics as he faces a potential ethics investigation.

Gonzales’ office did not respond to messages seeking comment Monday on the recent comments from his colleagues.

Boebert told Blue Light News that newly released text messages published in media outlets underscore the need for Gonzales to resign, saying they “seemingly show a perverted boss drunkenly coercing a vulnerable staffer into explicit conversations, pressing her for ‘sexy pics,’ asking about her favorite sexual positions.”

Blue Light News has not independently reviewed the messages.

“This kind of abuse of power has no place anywhere, let alone in Congress, and Tony Gonzales should be ashamed and RESIGN IMMEDIATELY!” Boebert said.

Luna said on X that “every single other Member of Congress … should be condemning a sitting Member of Congress asking for explicit photos of their staff.”

“As a woman, this is really disgusting to see. Not to mention, it brings dishonor on the House of Representatives. I am so sick of people not calling this crap out,” Luna added.

In comments to reporters Monday, Johnson said Gonzales must “address” the allegations with his constituents. But the speaker, who is struggling to maintain a razor-thin GOP majority, did not pull his endorsement of the Texas Republican with the primary just eight days away — in keeping with handling of other personal controversies faced by his members.

“I endorsed Tony before all these allegations came out — they’re obviously very serious,” Johnson told reporters at the Capitol. “And I’ve spoken with him and told him he’s got to address that in the appropriate way with his constituents, and all of that.”

Luna and Boebert were among a group of House Republican women who have criticized how top House GOP leaders, mostly men, have approached allegations of sexual misconduct — including, for Boebert, the effort to keep the Justice Department’s Jeffrey Epstein files under wraps.

Both were outraged at how Johnson and other GOP leaders handled an unsuccessful Democratic effort recently to censure Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) over now-retracted allegations of domestic assault and improper dealings with his arms company. Mills has denied the allegations, which remain under Ethics Committee review.

Johnson told reporters Monday he is handling the Gonzales matter in line with other allegations of misconduct, including those surrounding then Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who was expelled from the House over Johnson’s objections in 2023 ahead of a formal ethics trial.

“You have to let the system play out,” he said. “If the accusation of something is going to be the litmus test for someone being able to continue to serve in the House, we’ll have a lot of people who would have to resign or be removed or expelled from Congress.”

More House Republican women are reading the purported text messages between Gonzales and Santos-Aviles, and two women lawmakers granted anonymity to comment on the sensitive situation said it’s likely Johnson will come under more internal pressure to take action against Gonzales.

Johnson said he understood that the Office of Congressional Conduct is investigating Gonzales as well as Texas state authorities. Mills also remains subject to a House ethics investigation.

More recently, he has accused Santos-Aviles’ widower, Adrian Aviles, of engaging in a blackmail effort as he has given interviews criticizing Gonzales and released text messages between the lawmaker, who is a 45-year-old married father of six, and Santos-Aviles, who was 35.

An attorney for Aviles, Bobby Barrera, did not immediately return a call for comment. Barrera has publicly denied the blackmail accusation, explaining that he was attempting to recover damages through a potential lawsuit on behalf of Aviles.

One key player who has not weighed in on Gonzales is President Donald Trump, who endorsed him in December as Republicans face pressure to hold on to his must-win seat. Trump this weekend withdrew his endorsement for one House Republican — Rep. Jeff Hurd of Colorado, who voted down Trump’s Canada tariffs last week — but has stayed silent as the Gonzales scandal swirls.

Another issue facing Gonzales: GOP hardliners in Congress have been trying to replace him with a more hard-right Republican on immigration for years now. And Monday, the Freedom Caucus’ campaign arm officially endorsed his GOP primary challenger, Brandon Herrera, for a second time.

Herrera only lost to Gonzales by several hundred votes in 2022. He is now calling on Gonzales to step down and for congressional Republicans to rescind their support for the incumbent. Gonzales has countered that his opponent is fueling what he says are false allegations.

Trump, meanwhile, is facing intraparty pressure to distance himself from Gonzales, with far-right influencer Laura Loomer recently calling on social media for Trump to rescind his endorsement of Gonzales.

Jordain Carney contributed to this report. 

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House scrambling to host hockey teams at State of the Union, Johnson says

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Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday House officials are scrambling to find a way to accommodate the gold-medal-winning U.S. men and women’s hockey teams at Tuesday’s State of the Union address.

Johnson told reporters Monday he’s working to “figure out logistics” now for a potential visit from the teams, which were each invited by the White House and have dozens of players and coaches on their rosters.

“There’s no way to have special guests on the floor because it’s a literal session of Congress,” he said. “But we’re going to work and do what we can to accommodate.”

The speaker added that House officials are “trying to work out logistics to see if there’s some way to perhaps get them into the gallery and the doors, wave and receive the applause that they’re due.”

Neither team has announced plans to attend the speech, though Trump personally invited the men’s team in the immediate aftermath of their overtime win Sunday, offering to send a military jet to bring them to Washington.

A spokesperson for the women’s team told NBC News that while its members are “sincerely grateful” for the invitation, they cannot attend the speech “due to the timing and previously scheduled academic and professional commitments.”

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