Capitol agenda: Trump faces a midterms reality check

President Donald Trump is heading into one of his most high-profile moments of the midterm year as he grapples with plunging public opinion and growing congressional dissent.

“It’s going to be a long one because we have so much to talk about,” Trump told reporters Monday.

Keep in mind: He already set the record last year with an hour-and-thirty-nine-minute SOTU address, so buckle in.

Here’s some of what to expect throughout the night:

— Tariff talk: Trump is likely to have words for the Supreme Court justices sitting right in front of him who last week ruled to overturn his sweeping tariff regime. The ruling represented a rare setback for Trump from the conservative high court.

It was especially significant as it becomes increasingly clear that Congress won’t be there to back up Trump, who could press for legislative action on tariffs Tuesday night. Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday it’s unlikely Congress will act to codify the president’s tariff agenda to comply with the ruling.

— DHS prognosis: The president could offer a hint at how long the partial government shutdown affecting Homeland Security agencies, now on Day 11, will last.

Democratic leaders, after a series of back-and-forth proposals with the White House, claim the administration isn’t serious about adopting stricter guardrails on federal immigration agents. The White House, meanwhile, signaled it was willing to play hardball by scaling back airport security operations in ways that could cause pain for travelers.

Watch to see if Trump provides more clarity on his negotiating position or simply takes aim at Democrats for challenging his immigration agenda.

— A midterm signal: Trump is facing abysmal approval ratings as he heads into midterm season, as voters increasingly disapprove of his handling of immigration, inflation and tariffs. But while the president walks into the House chamber Tuesday evening in a far weaker position than last year, he also has a huge opportunity to define his party’s campaign message.

Listen for Trump to define the direction of his final two years in the White House with an eye toward November. You can expect the embattled GOP lawmakers in the audience to be listening closely themselves as they grow more concerned about the public’s deteriorating view of his presidency.

“He is currently at his lowest point in the second term,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster in Washington. “The single most important variable in midterm elections is the president’s job approval.”

What else we’re watching:  

— Dems split on SOTU attendance: Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries will be in their seats for Trump’s SOTU address, but dozens of their members will be absent, with some attending alternative programming.

Some Democrats are instead sending Trump a pointed message with their guests of choice. Schumer, Jeffries and other Democrats have invited victims of Jeffrey Epstein to the building.

Others are bringing small business owners and Americans grappling with costly health care premiums since Congress failed to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies last year.

— House takes up aviation safety: A House and Senate fight over how to address the deadly January 2025 DCA crash is coming to a head Tuesday as Johnson attempts to muscle through the House floor a Senate-passed bill that some of his key committee chairs oppose.

— New housing bills incoming: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is unveiling legislation Tuesday morning that would limit the ability of large Wall Street investors to buy up homes — a policy goal that Trump is also pushing to include in Warren’s bipartisan housing bill with Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.).

Meanwhile, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) are introducing legislation Tuesday that would allow federally-insured credit unions to access additional mortgage lending capacity through the Federal Home Loan Bank System.

Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Eli Stokols, Hailey Fuchs, Robert King, Mia McCarthy, Sam Ogozalek, Oriana Pawlyk, Chris Marquette and Victoria Guida contributed to this report.