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Capitol agenda: Senate Dems’ last-minute shutdown gambit

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Senate Democrats are still not committing to helping Republicans pass a seven-month funding stopgap, edging the country closer to a government shutdown as they attempt to force a vote on a shorter funding patch.

After two days of lengthy closed-door caucus talks (and another planned for Thursday), Democrats emerged with an attempted strategy Wednesday afternoon: Democrats won’t give Republicans the votes to advance the stopgap funding bill, known as a continuing resolution or CR, until they get an amendment vote on a “clean” CR through April 11.

Democrats have some leverage, despite being in the minority. In order to meet the Friday night deadline to avoid a shutdown, Republicans will need all 100 senators to agree to speed up the process. Republicans also need at least eight Democrats to overcome a filibuster and advance the CR.

We’ll see today if Democrats’ strategy holds. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has pushed for the April 11 CR, but hasn’t officially weighed in. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he did not believe Senate Democrats had made an offer, though he said “we’re open” to conversations about amendments.

But the Democrats’ gambit will likely do little except stave off the decision they have long dreaded: shut down the government to stand up to President Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s spending cuts or stand aside and leave their unilateral government reductions unchecked.

Republicans have one Democratic “yes” vote: Sen. John Fetterman. In the “no” column: Sens. John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner, Jeff Merkley, Chris Coons, Adam Schiff, Tim Kaine and Peter Welch. But keep an eye out for which Democratic senators will vote to proceed to consideration of the bill — where Republicans actually need Democratic support to get the necessary 60 votes — even if they won’t vote for passage — which only requires a simple majority.

Who we’re watching: Swing-state Sens. Mark Kelly, Elissa Slotkin, Ruben Gallego and Gary Peters. Kelly said Wednesday evening he was undecided on the procedural vote to advance the CR. Slotkin referred reporters back to her Sunday show comments, where she said she would “withhold” her vote until she got certain assurances about government cuts.

House Democrats have only added to the pressure on their Senate colleagues, after they voted almost unanimously against the funding bill Tuesday. During their annual issues conference on Wednesday, their message to Senate Democrats was clear: vote “no” on the continuing resolution.

“We’re standing on the side of working families,” Democratic Whip Katherine Clark said. “And that’s why our message to the Senate is: Also stand with us on that side.”

What else we’re watching:

  • Trump-senators budget meeting: House and Senate Republicans have yet to reach a deal on a budget plan that would set the framework for Trump’s legislative agenda — a source of tension ahead of a meeting today between GOP senators and Trump at the White House. That will include discussions on taxes and the current policy baseline issue — a budgetary loophole that the GOP is trying to use to argue that extending the Trump 2017 tax cuts costs nothing.
  • Senate Dems’ map issues: Democrats’ already difficult 2026 Senate map grew tougher Wednesday when New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen said she wouldn’t seek reelection, leaving Schumer and his party to defend a third open seat in a blue-leaning swing state. And more departures could come, with Sen. Michael Bennet eyeing a run for governor and Sen. Dick Durbin on retirement watch. Durbin acknowledged to Lisa that the Senate map is “challenging,” but declined to share his own reelection plans.
  • Governors speak: Democrats start the second day of their issues conference today. Govs. Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro and Andy Beshear will speak to House Democrats at a closed-door event at their issues retreat at 7:30 p.m.

Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Benjamin Guggenheim, Ally Mutnick and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.

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Hegseth to brief House Republicans on White House goals for party-line package

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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to give a classified briefing Wednesday to a group of House Republicans about the administration’s goals for military funding and another party-line reconciliation bill, according to three people granted anonymity to describe a private meeting.

The gathering will take place during the Republican Study Committee’s weekly lunch and be held in the House SCIF, underscoring the potentially sensitive nature of Hegseth’s planned presentation.

Lawmakers are expected to also press Hegseth on the agreement the Trump administration has reached with Iran to end the war.

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Turek leads Hinson in Iowa Senate poll of likely general election voters

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Iowa Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek has a narrow lead over GOP rival Ashley Hinson in a new internal poll of likely general-election voters.

Turek leads Hinson 47 percent to 45 percent in the poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group from June 8-11 among 1,000 likely general election voters. The poll shows that Republicans have a 10-point edge in voter registration (42 percent to 32 percent) and an electorate that voted for Trump by 9 points (50 percent for Trump to 41 percent for Kamala Harris).

But the polling also shows President Donald Trump’s favorabilities underwater across the electorate, with 45 percent favorable and 52 percent unfavorable. Among registered independents, Trump is upside down 28 points.

Turek is “significantly outperforming the state’s underlying partisan dynamics,” Global Strategy Group’s Matt Canter & Ramzi Ebbini write in a memo first obtained by Blue Light News. “Republicans maintain substantial advantages in voter registration and party identification, yet Turek enters the general election ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson, with stronger personal favorability ratings, overperforming a generic Democrat, and with clear opportunities to expand his coalition as more voters become familiar with him.”

Some Republicans have acknowledged a concern about Iowa.

“There are some issues there that we got to deal with — the biggest one is trade — trade and tariffs,” said a Republican close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the obstacles.

In his early general election messaging, Turek has leaned into farmers’ frustrations.

“Josh Turek is winning this race because Iowans are sick and tired of multi-millionaire politicians like Ashley Hinson who sell out working families while they get rich,” Turek for Iowa campaign manager Brendan Koch said in a statement first shared with Blue Light News. “We will spend the next 134 days connecting with Iowans in every corner of the state and across the political spectrum to send a fighter for the working class to the U.S. Senate.”

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Capitol agenda: House GOP races to make Recon 3.0 real

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House Republicans have eight days to prove Reconciliation 3.0 might actually happen.

The House returns Tuesday with only eight legislative days before they break again for the July 4 holiday. If members want a realistic chance at fulfilling their self-imposed timeline for advancing the legislation before the end of July — when they pause work again for another five weeks — they need to move fast.

That means assembling, and then adopting, a budget resolution — the first step in unlocking the filibuster skirting power of the reconciliation process. It took Republicans months to advance such a blueprint during their two earlier reconciliation efforts this Congress.

House GOP leaders are tentatively planning another senior-level reconciliation meeting for Wednesday, according to three people involved in the talks granted anonymity to discuss private plans.

Still, the House is coming back with several other moving items to deal with this week, including promised briefings on the president’s Iran deal and a major housing affordability package GOP leadership wants to clear as soon as Wednesday.

Reconciliation talks also come as President Donald Trump is expected to join the Senate’s GOP lunch Wednesday, where he’ll likely continue pushing the chamber to pass his SAVE America Act or attach pieces of the GOP elections bill to the party-line legislation (an idea one of the bill’s biggest backers, Sen. Mike Lee, spiked Sunday).

Republicans involved with Reconciliation 3.0 discussions also warn they need to reach a final agreement on how to pay for the bill as well as what policy items will be included before GOP leaders can try to advance any budget resolution.

At this point, however, many fiscal hawks and at-risk incumbents are largely unhappy about how the discussions are coming along.

“It’s fake pay-fors for defense spending no one has fully agreed to and no meaningful reforms,” said one House Republican granted anonymity to discuss private talks.

Back on the other side of the Capitol, GOP senators have been in no rush to start working on a third party-line bill, especially as they are consumed with other political fires — like trying to confirm Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence to speed up a FISA reauthorization (more on that below).

Rep. Morgan Griffith said he was confident if the right policies are included in the House plan the Senate would then take it up — although he, too, acknowledged the challenges of a short timeline.

“If we do it right, yeah,” Griffith said. “There’s some interesting things out there that are being discussed that could make it a real possibility.”

What else we’re watching: 

— OBAMA’S FEROCIOUS IRAN CRITIC SOFTER ON TRUMP DEAL: Tom Cotton, the No. 3 Senate Republican and chair of the chamber’s Intelligence panel, is not alone among GOP defense hawks in finding himself in an awkward position trying to defend Trump’s Iran deal after lambasting President Barack Obama’s a decade before. But the combination of his prior ferocity toward the Iranian regime and his current leadership responsibilities have put him into an especially tight spot.

— FIRST IN IC: DEMS WANT MORE OF JACK SMITH’S REPORT: Senate Judiciary Democrats are asking a federal court to unseal part of former special counsel Jack Smith’s report about his investigation into Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified documents after his first term. The request from the Senators comes as the Judiciary Committee is poised to call Smith to testify about his Biden-era cases before the end of this Congress. Republicans in the House and Senate have been investigating Smith’s work, alleging it amounted to a weaponization of the federal government against the then ex-president.

Jordain Carney and Hailey Fuchs contributed to this report.

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