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Capitol agenda: House GOP budget faces Senate reality check

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Speaker Mike Johnson successfully muscled Republicans’ Recon 3.0 ball into Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s court.

GOP Senators aren’t exactly thrilled to have it there.

“I don’t think Senator Thune’s going to take it up,” Sen. John Kennedy told reporters Wednesday.

GOP senators are likely to face a wave of pressure from the White House and House Republicans to move quickly and advance their budget resolution before August recess — the first step necessary to pass another party-line spending bill. But Thune has been frank about the rocky road the effort faces and careful not to guarantee he’ll be successful — before recess or ever.

Here are the obstacles he faces:

— GOVERNMENT FUNDING: GOP leaders are prioritizing funding the government past its Sept. 30 deadline before any party-line reconciliation bill.

“Our goal is to make sure we have government funded, and we want to get a continuing resolution done. …That’s number one,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said in an interview.

Thune said this week he would hold the House’s budget resolution in reserve as an alternative way to fund the government if Democrats don’t cooperate on passing a stopgap.

But if government funding talks get punted to September, Republicans are also skeptical they’d advance the budget resolution given the close proximity to the midterms and the politically tricky votes that arise during the reconciliation process.

“I’m not a fan of pursuing reconciliation,” Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, who is up for re-election, said.

— DEFICIT HAWKS: Several Senate Republicans — including Rick Scott, Bill Cassidy and Rand Paul — are making it clear they will want to pay for part of the bill, as the House’s plan has no spending offsets.

Thune can only lose votes from two of his members and still secure the budget blueprint’s adoption, given unified opposition from Democrats. And Sen. Mitch McConnell is absent indefinitely for health reasons.

Asked Wednesday how close he was to having the 50 votes necessary to proceed on the Senate floor, Thune quipped: “Good question.”

And if Senate Republicans ask committees to look for ways to pay for the new spending, that could balloon the debate into a much larger fight about taxes, health care and other issues — and potentially force Republicans into politically sensitive votes.

“We literally have not had an organized conversation about reconciliation yet,” Sen. Ron Johnson, Republicans’ newly appointed Budget Committee chair, said when asked if 50 Senate Republicans were serious about wanting to do a third bill.

— SAVE AMERICA PUSHBACK: Senate Republicans don’t believe they’ll be able to get parts of Trump’s priority elections legislation into the bill amid pushback from some of their own members.

That’s assuming the provisions would adhere to the chamber’s strict rules for what can be included under the reconciliation process.

Sen. Thom Tillis warned last week that he’d “use every device I have available to slow down the wheels of government” if a reconciliation bill comes over from the House with components of the SAVE America Act included.

“Do the math,” he added.

What else we’re watching: 

— HOUSE DEMS LOBBY GOP ON WAR POWERS VOTE: House Democrats are trying to convince more of their Republican counterparts to join them on an Iran war powers resolution they’ll force Thursday on the House floor. The House last month successfully advanced a similar measure to limit Trump’s military authority in Iran with the help of four Republicans. We’re now watching to see how many other Republicans may join them to back a resolution from Rep. Pramila Jayapal as strikes in the Middle East ramp up. Meanwhile in the Senate, Democrats will try to force their own Iran war powers resolution on the floor Thursday.

— AI-LAUNCHED CYBERATTACK SPURS BIPARTISAN BILL: Reps. Ted Lieu and Nathaniel Moran are introducing one of the most aggressive bipartisan AI safety proposals yet to emerge on Capitol Hill, Blue Light News scooped. The bill comes days after OpenAI disclosed the first fully autonomous breach by two of its most advanced models. The bill would empower the Department of Homeland Security to order AI companies to slow, suspend or shut down advanced AI models deemed to pose serious risks.

Jordain Carney, Mia McCarthy, Riley Rogerson, Gabby Miller, Brendan Bordelon and Dana Nickel contributed to this report.

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Vote on health emergency preparedness nominee delayed

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The Senate Health Committee dropped plans to vote on Sean Kaufman’s nomination to lead the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response on Thursday after a tense confirmation hearing last week that focused on vaccines.

“There are ongoing conversations with the administration on the path forward for Mr. Kaufman’s nomination,” a spokesperson for the committee said in a statement.

Kaufman has served as senior adviser for global affairs at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December. He also co-founded a biosafety consulting firm.

It was unclear Thursday morning why the administration pulled the nomination, but Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) had publicly expressed concerns about Kaufman during his confirmation hearing last week. Thursday’s decision to delay the planned vote suggested Kaufman would not have advanced.

During the hearing, Kaufman admitted to having authored a LinkedIn post saying he would “rather perish” than give his children the Covid-19 vaccine. In a different LinkedIn post, Kaufman had previously questioned the safety of the hepatitis B birth dose — of which Cassidy is a vocal proponent. He also addressed a video from four years ago, where he said he hates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which works closely with the agency he had hoped to lead.

Kaufman largely backtracked on those comments, telling members that “vaccines save lives,” but added some caveats, especially around Covid vaccines.

He told Tammy Baldwin, a Wisconsin Democrat, that he believes mRNA vaccines, including the Covid shot, are safe and effective, but qualified that statement later by pointing to individuals who experienced adverse effects after getting the mRNA Covid shots, noting that some people suffered.

Simon J. Levien and Lauren Gardner contributed to this report.

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Mike Johnson’s budget blueprint faces Senate GOP buzzsaw

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Getting a $95 billion budget blueprint through the House took weeks of arm twisting. Getting it through the Senate may very well be impossible.

With Speaker Mike Johnson muscling through the first step of a two-part plan for passing billions of funding for the Iran war and farm aid — and for implementing provisions of a GOP election proposal — the intraparty battle is officially now in Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s court, where the South Dakota Republican has been frank about the rocky road the effort faces and careful not to guarantee he’ll be successful.

GOP senators are likely to face a wave of pressure from House Republicans, who are leaving town this week for an extended summer recess, as well as the White House, to move quickly to advance the House’s budget resolution — necessary to draft and pass the party’s third filibuster-skirting reconciliation bill of the 119th Congress.

The White House blasted out a video Wednesday night of President Donald Trump telling supporters to “call John Thune” to demand passage of the SAVE America Act, adding that Republicans were trying to fit it into the reconciliation package.

But there’s plenty of skepticism among Republicans that they will be successful — before the midterms, or ever. Fiscal hawks are demanding offsets, while defense hawks and farm-state Republicans want more spending for their priorities.

“I don’t think Senator Thune’s going to take it up,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told reporters Wednesday.

And attempting to pass another party-line package could end up forcing vulnerable incumbents to walk the plank on any number of politically tricky votes just months before the elections — a scenario many want to avoid.

Complicating things even further is that, with Sen. Mitch McConnell absent indefinitely for health reasons, Thune can only lose two of his members and still secure the budget blueprint’s adoption, given unified opposition from Democrats. This reality left several Republicans questioning whether the whole effort was DOA before the measure could formally reach the Senate.

Outgoing Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), in an interview, pointed to McConnell’s absence and the pushback from corners of the conference, adding, “I don’t know whether the votes are [there] for a reconciliation bill in the Senate.”

The Senate will be in town for two more weeks before they leave for their own August recess, and GOP leaders are not at this point committing to trying to advance the resolution before they break for the month. Instead, Thune this week said he would hold the budget resolution in reserve until the government is funded ahead of a Sept. 30 deadline to avoid a shutdown.

But if they punt it until the fall, Republicans are also skeptical they would advance the budget resolution when they return in September given the even closer proximity of the midterms, according to two people granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Asked Wednesday how close he was to having the 50 votes necessary to proceed on the Senate floor, Thune quipped: “Good question.”

Instead, Senate GOP leaders are focused, for now, on trying to get the government funded before the shutdown deadline, with ongoing bipartisan talks in the Senate around a possible deal for moving a short-term continuing resolution.

“Our goal is to make sure we have government funded, and we want to get a continuing resolution done. …That’s number one,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said in an interview.

As for moving a budget resolution, the Wyoming Republican said that many GOP senators were still waiting to see the details.

“The speaker has said that what they would send would be irresistible to the Senate, and I think a lot of us want to see exactly what they’re sending, if anything is for or not, and what’s in it,” Barrasso said shortly before the House successfully adopted its proposal.

But Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Republicans’ newly appointed Budget Committee chair, warned in an interview that he believes that the Senate needs to adopt a budget resolution before leaving town or they won’t be able to get a third reconciliation bill done at all.

“If we’re serious about a reconciliation package we’re going to have to take the first steps before the August recess, just to give yourself any chance to do it before the end of the year,” Johnson said.

But pressed if he thought that 50 Senate Republicans were serious about wanting to do a third bill, Johnson said, “We literally have not had an organized conversation about reconciliation yet.”

The lackluster response toward the House’s budget blueprint among many Senate Republicans comes after House Republicans and Trump officials largely took the lead in drafting the resolution. Senate Republicans have kvetched privately for weeks that they view the House effort as a midterm messaging exercise rather than a sincere attempt to legislate given the lack of cross-chamber coordination.

The speaker declined to comment when asked Wednesday if he had talked to Thune about the process from here: “I’m not answering any questions right now.”

Thune, who meets with Johnson weekly when the two chambers are both in session, hasn’t completely closed the door to making a third run at a reconciliation bill — but he questioned last week, “is the juice worth the squeeze?”

He added Tuesday that while he thought most Republicans supported military funding, “there are some concerns about whether it will be offset, about whether it will be paid for. There are concerns … about, ‘is it enough?’”

Several Senate GOP deficit hawks — including Rick Scott of Florida, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rand Paul of Kentucky — are making it clear they will want to pay for part of the bill; the House’s plan would have no new offsets. But Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), whose panel would likely be tapped in to come up with ways to find savin`gs, said in an interview that “I’m not engaged in that right now.”

The push for expanding a third reconciliation bill to incorporate more pay-fors comes as there’s already concern among Senate Republicans that including the farm assistance, which involves the Agriculture Committee, risks letting Democrats force votes on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and other politically sensitive issues just months before the midterms.

If Senate Republicans ask committees to look for ways to pay for the new spending, that could balloon the debate into a much larger fight about taxes, health care and other issues.

One GOP senator, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said they were “skeptical” the Senate would advance a third reconciliation bill because some GOP colleagues “fear taking vote-a-rama votes right before the election.”

Plus, Republicans already don’t believe they will be able to get Trump’s main priority — parts of the SAVE America Act — into the bill amid pushback from some of their own members, let alone whether the provisions would adhere to the chamber’s strict rules for what can be included under the reconciliation process.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who isn’t seeking reelection, warned from the Senate floor last week that he would “use every device I have available to slow down the wheels of government” if a reconciliation bill comes over from the House with components of the SAVE America Act included.

“Do the math,” he added.

And then there are the Senate appropriators, who are not sold on doing a third reconciliation bill that could eat away at the power of their committee.

“I have made it very clear that I think we’re going to need a 60-day CR,” said Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is up for reelection in November. “I’m not a fan of pursuing reconciliation.”

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report. 

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Some Republicans aren’t as ready as Trump to embrace Iraq’s new leader

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A number of congressional Republicans are worried Iraq’s new leader won’t be the partner the U.S. needs in an increasingly turbulent Middle East.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi met with both President Donald Trump and a slew of lawmakers last week in Washington — his first international trip since taking office. But those on Blue Light News came away from the visit with more skepticism and reservations than Trump, who praised al-Zaidi’s leadership in their meeting.

“Iraqi leaders have fooled us in the past and so far, I have no reason to believe this one will be different,” Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) said. “I am afraid that the so-called militia disarmament that the prime minister keeps promising will simply be Iran-backed militia members switching jerseys from terrorist uniforms to the Iraqi government.”

Wilson, a prominent advocate for severing Iranian ties with Iraq, said he supports the president’s effort to strengthen the relationship with Baghdad, but argues Iraq’s promises must be met with caution.

The success of Iraq’s new prime minister matters greatly to Washington. Amid the Iran war, the White House has pushed to bridge relations with another Gulf state where ties have long been strained. But before al-Zaidi can become the ally the U.S. hopes for, he needs to address the threat posed by Iran-backed militias, whose attacks have persisted in his country during the war.

Al-Zaidi is saying — and doing — a number of things that are winning him plaudits in Washington.

During his visit, al-Zaidi said his government will honor the Sept. 30 deadline Iraq has set to disarm all Iran-backed and non-state armed groups. And under al-Zaidi, there have been some early signs of progress. The leaders of three major militia groups in the region have already pledged that they will disarm.

But on the ground, the picture remains more complicated. Since the start of the Iran war, many other militias have escalated their attacks, launching strikes targeting U.S. diplomatic and military sites, as well as other public infrastructure in Baghdad.

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he didn’t get the answers he needed from al-Zaidi during his visit last week.

“ To me personally, it was disappointing. He didn’t answer any questions, and I just didn’t get much from it,” Burchett said. He added he hopes that al-Zaidi can meet the Sept. 30 deadline to disarm Iraq’s militias, but acknowledged the steep challenge ahead. “It’ll be difficult,” Burchett said. “I sure hope he can.”

It doesn’t help al-Zaidi’s case that he attended the funeral procession of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this month, fueling concerns among some U.S. lawmakers of Baghdad’s continued allegiance with Tehran.

“This does not inspire confidence in Iraqi leaders,” Wilson said, referring to al-Zaidi’s attendance at the funeral procession.

The episode shows the delicate balancing act al-Zaidi faces as he seeks to maintain close ties with both Washington and Tehran. But he also has a balancing act in Washington.

Even lawmakers who left the meeting encouraged by the prime minister’s remarks noted major obstacles ahead.

Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Iran-backed militias in Iraq are “always a concern” and noted that al-Zaidi has significant “history to overcome” to come to terms with Washington.

When asked to comment on the lawmakers’ concerns, a White House spokesperson referred to Trump’s previous comments on al-Zaidi.

“This man is going to be a great leader in the Middle East, beyond Iraq. His influence is going to spread all throughout the Middle East,” Trump said during their meeting last week.

Iraq’s embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Victoria Taylor, an Iraq analyst at the Atlantic Council, said a key mission for al-Zaidi’s visit was to charm Trump, “and I think he can really say the mission accomplished there.”

“Where the visit was less successful was really with other elements of Washington, including on Blue Light News, where understandably many congressmen are eager to really see more action and more details before they’re willing to give him the kind of effusive stamp of approval that he received from the Trump team.”

Trump’s support for al-Zaidi, a 40-year-old banker with no prior political experience, has been consistent. The president threw his support behind al-Zaidi after the country’s parliamentary elections last year, even threatening to cut off U.S. support to Iraq if another candidate was elected.

Al-Zaidi was seen as a consensus candidate and a more neutral pick amid Iraq’s political factions. He also used his trip to advance Baghdad’s economic agenda, leading the signing of several memorandums of understanding as Iraq looks for alternative export routes and ways to relieve the economic impact of disruptions to its oil business through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. envoy to Iraq Tom Barrack has made it clear that the administration is hoping to help al-Zaidi in these endeavors.

“What you’re going to find today is this young leader, who we need support with your thoughts, with your confidence, with your businesses, has the ability to change the fabric of the 23-year unbelievable adventure that we have had with Iraq,” Barrack said during the U.S.-Iraq Business Summit on Friday.

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