The Republican Party is starting to splinter over support for Israel — and President Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters are largely aligned with the embattled U.S. ally.

New results from The POLITICO Poll find that self-identified “MAGA” Trump voters are more supportive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and its relationship with the U.S. than those who don’t identify as MAGA but still voted for the president.

Nearly half of MAGA Trump voters say they back Israel and approve of the actions of its current government, while just 29 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters say the same, according to the survey. A plurality of MAGA voters (41 percent) say Israel is justified in its military campaign in Gaza — compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters. And 24 percent of MAGA voters say the country was initially justified but has gone too far, compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters.

MAGA voters are moderately supportive of Israel, and the survey suggests they remain more willing to stick with the longtime U.S. ally even as divides inside the party deepen. The emerging fractures carry significant implications for the future of the U.S.-Israel alliance and GOP efforts to keep together the coalition that powered Trump back to the White House in an unfavorable midterm election.

Politics around the Middle East have rapidly changed in recent years. Support for Israel has long divided the Democratic Party, with some Democrats blaming the Biden administration’s approach to Gaza for costing them the White House in 2024. A 35 percent plurality of Americans who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris say Israel was initially justified in its actions in Gaza but has gone too far, while 27 percent say Israel’s military campaign in Gaza was never justified and 28 percent don’t know.

Only 10 percent of Harris voters believe that Israel is still justified in its conduct of the Gaza war. That figure underscores the near-total loss of support among Democrats for a military campaign that drew significant support from the Biden administration.

Republicans were powerfully unified in support of Israel in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. But amid the war with Iran and a growing unease about Trump’s foreign interventions, the country’s standing appears shaky among the non-MAGA wing of the GOP and among young conservatives. Non-MAGA voters are 10 points more likely than MAGA Trump voters to believe the Israeli government has too much influence over U.S. foreign policy, the survey conducted by Public First found.

Some of those cracks have spilled into public view, with high-profile Republicans like Tucker Carlson, former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Steve Bannon all criticizing America’s close relationship with Israel, especially as the war in Iran escalates. Most Republican members of Congress, as well as conservative influencers like Laura Loomer and Ben Shapiro, have remained pro-Israel voices defending the president’s actions.

“There is a sentiment right now within the Republican Party of, ‘America First,’ let’s get out of all of the conflicts in the world, let’s not be committed to those conflicts,” said Amnon Cavari, an associate professor at Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel.

The poll reflects that dynamic, with a notable share of Trump 2024 voters — 29 percent — saying that the president has spent too much time focusing on international affairs instead of domestic issues.

MAGA Trump voters are more tolerant of Trump’s global agenda, with just 19 percent complaining that he has spent too much time on international affairs. That figure doubles to 40 percent among non-MAGA Trump voters.

The Israel issue is a particularly urgent flash point within the GOP coalition, but Blue Light News’s polling shows a consistent gap between Trump voters who identify as “MAGA” and those who do not. That divide has shown up on views of Trump’s deportation campaign,the war in Iran and even his handling of economic concerns.

Generational divides on Israel

The Blue Light News Poll finds sharp generational divides among Republicans on issues related to Israel, with the youngest Trump voters more likely than the oldest to express uneasiness over America’s relationship with Israel.

Thirty-two percent of Trump voters below 35 say the U.S. is too closely aligned with Israel’s government, while 11 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

When asked whether the U.S. should distance itself from Israel — even when the two nations face common threats — or work closely with the longtime ally to fend against common threats, the generational divide holds. Nearly half of Trump voters ages 18 to 34 say there should be distance between the two countries, while just 13 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

James Fishback, a far-right 31-year-old Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida who is highly critical of Israel and has gained traction among younger online “America First” voices, said the GOP is poised for a “massive reckoning” on the Middle Eastern nation, “the first of which we’re going to see this November, and in the primaries right before that.”

“And then we’re set up for the ultimate proxy war on this Israel question in the [2028] Republican primary, and then in the general,” he said. “I just don’t see a staunchly pro-Israel candidate becoming the Republican nominee.”

The generational divide in the GOP in many ways mirrors breaks within the Democratic Party, whose younger voters also hold stronger views against Israel’s influence and actions, driven in large part by the rising death toll and ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, polling shows.

“The fact that [Israel has] lost support among young Democrats is not surprising,” said Cavari. “The fact that they are losing rapidly among young Republicans is especially alarming, and the trend is very clear.”

The AIPAC factor

The involvement of pro-Israel groups in competitive primaries has become a flashpoint on both sides of the aisle.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, an influential advocacy group that aims to elect candidatesin both parties who strongly support Israel, has faced backlash for its involvement in Democratic primaries in New Jersey and Illinois. AIPAC is also involved in Republican primaries, and some GOP voters are uneasy about its role.

But AIPAC is also playing on the Republican side — and the GOP is beginning to split over it. The survey finds that MAGA Trump voters are 14 points more supportive of AIPAC’s political interventions than their counterparts in the coalition, while non-MAGA Trump voters are 11 points more likely to oppose AIPAC’s efforts.

Deryn Sousa, a spokesperson for AIPAC, said in a statement that “millions of Americans are members of AIPAC because they want to strengthen an alliance that advances America’s interests and values, and we will stay focused on building the largest possible bipartisan pro-Israel coalition in Congress.”

AIPAC has bundled for several GOP incumbents, including Sens. John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, who are both at risk of losing their seats. The group, along with the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund, has also poured millions into attempting to oust GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, in part for opposing aid to Israel and attempting to rein in Trump’s war powers in Iran and elsewhere.

Even as AIPAC has become a dividing line among highly engaged voters in both parties, a 30 percent plurality of Americans have never heard of the organization or don’t know enough to share an opinion.

“Polls will go up and down,” said Patrick Dorton, the spokesperson for AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project. “Obviously we’re in a post-Gaza, Iran war environment.”

AIPAC’s electoral arm, Dorton said, will continue to be “substantive in making the case for the U.S.-Israel relationship.”

As Bill Cassidy fights for his political life, he’s refusing to acknowledge the political gravity surrounding him.

Five years after he cast a vote to convict President Donald Trump in his impeachment trial over Trump’s election denialism and the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Cassidy is facing a challenge from Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and GOP State Treasurer John Fleming in a crucial Louisiana primary today that marks the next stop on Trump’s revenge tour.

In an interview with Blue Light News on Saturday, Cassidy sounded disconnected from the reality he faces, frequently referring only to Letlow as “my opponent” while ignoring Fleming, and complaining about the state’s shift to a closed party primary back in 2024.

If Trump’s push to oust Cassidy succeeds, it could unleash another rogue in the Senate with a vendetta against Trump and nothing left to lose.

But Cassidy claims he’s not thinking about that. Asked whether he would be a thorn in Trump’s side in his remaining months in office should he go down and join other YOLO Republicans, Cassidy sounded defiant.

“I’m going to win today,” Cassidy said. “I may go into a runoff. But I’m always going to vote for the good of my country and my people.”

If no candidate clears 50 percent in today’s vote, the top two candidates will advance to a June 27 runoff. Recent polls show a tight three-way campaign. Most polling puts Cassidy in third place, behind Letlow and Fleming, another MAGA candidate.

Cassidy spoke with Blue Light News by phone before he made his Election Day rounds after attending a wedding Friday evening. He talked of his plans to improve affordability and criticized Letlow for not voting for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

“I don’t quite know why, but it takes courage, and so you got to know what’s right, and then you got to have the courage to do what’s right, and that’s what I have,” Cassidy said. “I’ve proven it. That’s what this race is about.”

But in the final hours before results roll in, the senator who drew Trump’s ire over his impeachment vote was the one crying foul over voting issues.

Cassidy echoed his concerns about Louisiana’s move to a closed primary system, telling Playbook he had just gotten off the phone with a “No Party” voter who tried to cast a ballot for him but said he could not. Cassidy said he’s communicating with Louisiana Secretary of State Nancy Landy, who he said is investigating. A spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Today, I’m trying to make sure that people are able to exercise their right to vote … in a system which, in effect, has been designed to prevent people from being able to cast their vote for me,” Cassidy said.

He brushed off MAHA’s role in the primary. “People in our state want someone who has delivered,” he said. “If you’re talking about ‘Making America Healthy Again,’ my gosh, I’ve worked to make my state healthy again. And so if people are concerned about our state being healthier, then I’m your candidate.”

And he expressed no regrets over his impeachment decision.

“That is not something I think about.” Cassidy said. “If my opponent is focused on that, she’s thinking about five years ago. I’m thinking about five years from now. If she wants to be wedded to the past, be wedded in the past, but by golly, you’re not working for the future. I’m working for the future, that’s where I’m focused.”

Despite Cassidy’s resoluteness, GOP sources in Louisiana see an increasingly bleak outlook for Cassidy — no matter where he finishes at the end of the day.

“There is almost a 0.0 percent chance that Bill Cassidy is coming back to the Senate,” said an unaligned GOP strategist with experience running races in Louisiana and granted anonymity to assess the state of play.

“He’s run a lot of ads,” the person said, “and the problem with his ads is he’s in them.”

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