Politics

Poll: MAGA is largely aligned with Israel as GOP divides deepen

Published

4 weeks ago

May 16, 2026

The Republican Party is starting to splinter over support for Israel — and President Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters are largely aligned with the embattled U.S. ally.

New results from The POLITICO Poll find that self-identified “MAGA” Trump voters are more supportive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and its relationship with the U.S. than those who don’t identify as MAGA but still voted for the president.

Nearly half of MAGA Trump voters say they back Israel and approve of the actions of its current government, while just 29 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters say the same, according to the survey. A plurality of MAGA voters (41 percent) say Israel is justified in its military campaign in Gaza — compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters. And 24 percent of MAGA voters say the country was initially justified but has gone too far, compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters.

MAGA voters are moderately supportive of Israel, and the survey suggests they remain more willing to stick with the longtime U.S. ally even as divides inside the party deepen. The emerging fractures carry significant implications for the future of the U.S.-Israel alliance and GOP efforts to keep together the coalition that powered Trump back to the White House in an unfavorable midterm election.

Politics around the Middle East have rapidly changed in recent years. Support for Israel has long divided the Democratic Party, with some Democrats blaming the Biden administration’s approach to Gaza for costing them the White House in 2024. A 35 percent plurality of Americans who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris say Israel was initially justified in its actions in Gaza but has gone too far, while 27 percent say Israel’s military campaign in Gaza was never justified and 28 percent don’t know.

Only 10 percent of Harris voters believe that Israel is still justified in its conduct of the Gaza war. That figure underscores the near-total loss of support among Democrats for a military campaign that drew significant support from the Biden administration.

Republicans were powerfully unified in support of Israel in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. But amid the war with Iran and a growing unease about Trump’s foreign interventions, the country’s standing appears shaky among the non-MAGA wing of the GOP and among young conservatives. Non-MAGA voters are 10 points more likely than MAGA Trump voters to believe the Israeli government has too much influence over U.S. foreign policy, the survey conducted by Public First found.

Some of those cracks have spilled into public view, with high-profile Republicans like Tucker Carlson, former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Steve Bannon all criticizing America’s close relationship with Israel, especially as the war in Iran escalates. Most Republican members of Congress, as well as conservative influencers like Laura Loomer and Ben Shapiro, have remained pro-Israel voices defending the president’s actions.

“There is a sentiment right now within the Republican Party of, ‘America First,’ let’s get out of all of the conflicts in the world, let’s not be committed to those conflicts,” said Amnon Cavari, an associate professor at Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel.

The poll reflects that dynamic, with a notable share of Trump 2024 voters — 29 percent — saying that the president has spent too much time focusing on international affairs instead of domestic issues.

MAGA Trump voters are more tolerant of Trump’s global agenda, with just 19 percent complaining that he has spent too much time on international affairs. That figure doubles to 40 percent among non-MAGA Trump voters.

The Israel issue is a particularly urgent flash point within the GOP coalition, but Blue Light News’s polling shows a consistent gap between Trump voters who identify as “MAGA” and those who do not. That divide has shown up on views of Trump’s deportation campaign,the war in Iran and even his handling of economic concerns.

Generational divides on Israel

The Blue Light News Poll finds sharp generational divides among Republicans on issues related to Israel, with the youngest Trump voters more likely than the oldest to express uneasiness over America’s relationship with Israel.

Thirty-two percent of Trump voters below 35 say the U.S. is too closely aligned with Israel’s government, while 11 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

When asked whether the U.S. should distance itself from Israel — even when the two nations face common threats — or work closely with the longtime ally to fend against common threats, the generational divide holds. Nearly half of Trump voters ages 18 to 34 say there should be distance between the two countries, while just 13 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

James Fishback, a far-right 31-year-old Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida who is highly critical of Israel and has gained traction among younger online “America First” voices, said the GOP is poised for a “massive reckoning” on the Middle Eastern nation, “the first of which we’re going to see this November, and in the primaries right before that.”

“And then we’re set up for the ultimate proxy war on this Israel question in the [2028] Republican primary, and then in the general,” he said. “I just don’t see a staunchly pro-Israel candidate becoming the Republican nominee.”

The generational divide in the GOP in many ways mirrors breaks within the Democratic Party, whose younger voters also hold stronger views against Israel’s influence and actions, driven in large part by the rising death toll and ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, polling shows.

“The fact that [Israel has] lost support among young Democrats is not surprising,” said Cavari. “The fact that they are losing rapidly among young Republicans is especially alarming, and the trend is very clear.”

The AIPAC factor

The involvement of pro-Israel groups in competitive primaries has become a flashpoint on both sides of the aisle.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, an influential advocacy group that aims to elect candidatesin both parties who strongly support Israel, has faced backlash for its involvement in Democratic primaries in New Jersey and Illinois. AIPAC is also involved in Republican primaries, and some GOP voters are uneasy about its role.

But AIPAC is also playing on the Republican side — and the GOP is beginning to split over it. The survey finds that MAGA Trump voters are 14 points more supportive of AIPAC’s political interventions than their counterparts in the coalition, while non-MAGA Trump voters are 11 points more likely to oppose AIPAC’s efforts.

Deryn Sousa, a spokesperson for AIPAC, said in a statement that “millions of Americans are members of AIPAC because they want to strengthen an alliance that advances America’s interests and values, and we will stay focused on building the largest possible bipartisan pro-Israel coalition in Congress.”

AIPAC has bundled for several GOP incumbents, including Sens. John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, who are both at risk of losing their seats. The group, along with the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund, has also poured millions into attempting to oust GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, in part for opposing aid to Israel and attempting to rein in Trump’s war powers in Iran and elsewhere.

Even as AIPAC has become a dividing line among highly engaged voters in both parties, a 30 percent plurality of Americans have never heard of the organization or don’t know enough to share an opinion.

“Polls will go up and down,” said Patrick Dorton, the spokesperson for AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project. “Obviously we’re in a post-Gaza, Iran war environment.”

AIPAC’s electoral arm, Dorton said, will continue to be “substantive in making the case for the U.S.-Israel relationship.”

Politics

The Knicks are the (only) talk of the town

Published

33 minutes ago

June 11, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Fans celebrated all across New York City at various Knicks watch parties during Game 4 of the NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs.

VERY SUPERSTITIOUS: For the first three quarters, it looked like the San Antonio Spurs were going to cream the Knicks in last night’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

But in an epic comeback, the Knicks overcame the Spurs’ 29-point lead — a new record in an NBA Finals game — and beat San Antonio 107-106, putting the hometown team just one win away from claiming its first championship in over five decades.

In New York political circles, there was an almost singular explanation for the unbelievable come-from-behind victory: The Trump curse had been lifted.

“THANK YOU TO THE PEOPLE WHO BLESSED MSG TODAY TO GET THE STANK VIBES OUT,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wrote on X just before midnight. “YOUR SERVICE IS APPRECIATED.”

The progressive lawmaker’s all-caps missive was a reference to superstitious Knicks fans burning sage outside Madison Square Garden to cleanse it of what they saw as the bad juju President Donald Trump cast over the team by attending Monday’s Game 3 (which the Spurs won 115-111).

Queens Borough President Donovan Richards suggested Staten Island’s own Wu-Tang Clan — which performed last night’s halftime show at MSG — had a hand in rooting out the bad vibes. “Wu-Tang is for the children!!!” Richards wrote on X in response to a video of the rap group’s performance captioned: “Wu-Tang Clan have broken Donald Trump’s curse on the Knicks.”

No matter what brand of superstition is at play, it’s unmistakable that the Knicks’ playoff prowess has led New Yorkers to search for otherworldly explanations — and it seems to be the only thing local politicians can talk about.

In an Instagram video posted late last night, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries suggested there was a more cerebral catalyst for the Knicks’ latest win.

“Wemby tried to taunt the Knicks when they were up by about 29, suggesting that he was in our heads,” Jeffries said in a video, referring to Spurs center Victor Wembanyama. “No. Actually Wemby, we were in your head.”

For his part, Mayor Zohran Mamdani turned to God for guidance about the Knicks.

“Knicks in five — inshallah, baby, let’s go,” he practically shouted on Hot 97 radio this morning, using the Arabic term for “God willing.”

Game 5 of the Finals is Saturday in San Antonio. If the Knicks win, they will claim the championship trophy for the first time since 1973.

Not everything has been peaches and cream in the Big Apple when it comes to the Knickerbockers, though.

An NYPD spokesperson said 56 Knicks fans were taken into custody last night after massive and destructive crowds converged near The Garden to “celebrate” the victory.

According to the spokesperson, 10 officers were injured in the rampage, including one who got hit in the head with a glass bottle as the crowds jumped on top of moving vehicles, tried to flip over a parked cab and set off fireworks.

“This demonstrates exactly why the NYPD has increased our presence in and around Madison Square Garden,” the police spokesperson said.

The chaos unfolded after Knicks owner James Dolan canceled last night’s ticketed watch party outside MSG because he was angry with Mamdani and NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch for blocking unauthorized pedestrian traffic in a large swath of Midtown around the arena due to security concerns. — Chris Sommerfeldt

From the Capitol

Gov. Kathy Hochul held a roundtable today with immigration organizations to respond to the threat of an ICE surge into the state.

MESSAGE RECEIVED: Gov. Kathy Hochul responded today to White House border czar Tom Homan’s threat of an ICE surge into the Empire State.

“It’s not how we do things in New York,” Hochul said at an event in Queens. “Maybe Washington is a different breed there, and they think that intimidation and creating fear is a way to govern, and we’re just rejecting that here in the state of New York. That’s not who we are, never has been, never will be.”

Homan’s threats come after Hochul and state lawmakers sealed a deal on a package of measures meant to protect undocumented immigrants, following ICE’s deportation operation in Minneapolis. The bills would limit civil deportation warrants from being executed in sensitive locations and prevent law enforcement, including ICE agents, from wearing masks.

Homan blamed Hochul for the threatened surge after she signed legislation ending so-called 287(g) agreements that enable local law enforcement to share resources with federal authorities.

Hochul said such a surge would be “contrary” to what Trump previously told her. The governor also mentioned that Homan’s reasoning does not apply since only nine counties in New York previously participated in the 287(g) program — and none of those include any of New York City’s five counties.

“New York City, where we’re predicting he’ll send the agents to, has never had a 287(g) agreement. They’ve never been allowed to use the jails. Never been allowed to use local police enforcement,” the governor said. “It is irrational. It shows that they do not comprehend what is happening in the state of New York.” — Leah Clark

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Former City Comptroller Brad Lander speaks to the press after a judge found him not guilty of an obstruction charge on June 11, 2026.

TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS: A federal judge found former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander not guilty of misdemeanor obstruction Thursday for blocking an elevator while protesting last year outside an immigrant holding area.

Lander was hit with the obstruction charge in September while demonstrating in support of detained immigrants at 26 Federal Plaza in Lower Manhattan. He was offered a deal to drop the charge but opted instead for a trial to draw attention to the federal government’s immigration policies.

Lander said he was there with state legislators to view the facility’s conditions, not to purposefully block an elevator — and that he would have moved if asked. In reading his findings, Judge Henry Ricardo described Lander’s testimony as consistent with video evidence, noting that his movements didn’t suggest he was purposefully trying to block the elevator and that Lander appeared “tired and a bit resigned.”

“No offense to Mr. Lander,” the judge said.

Lander — who entered the courtroom in good spirits and holding a Knicks hat — told reporters after the verdict: “I didn’t feel tired.”

“I felt an urgency to show up that day and try to fight what ICE is doing,” he said.

After a month’s delay, Lander finally had his first day in court Wednesday — less than two weeks before the primary election — bringing immigration even more to the forefront in the waning days of his campaign against Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman.

Goldman, who often highlights his oversight visits at immigrant detention centers and his “triage center” to support detainees near 26 Federal Plaza, has repeatedly criticized Lander for his approach to immigration. On Wednesday, he referred to Lander’s case as “performative” and “self-promoting.” At a debate last week, Goldman chided him for the rhetorical refrain that he puts his “body on the line” for immigrants and for fundraising off of it.

“While Brad never did get the information he sought from ICE, I have all of that information from my weekly oversight visits and would be happy to brief him,” Goldman said in a statement.

POLL POSITION: The race between Rep. Adriano Espaillat and primary challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier is close in the final stretch of the campaign, according to a pro-Avila Chevalier poll.

The survey, conducted by Data for Progress for Justice Democrats, the progressive group that recruited the challenger, found Avila Chevalier with 39 percent of support compared to Espaillat’s 35 percent. Twenty-two percent of respondents were undecided.

The poll was conducted among 319 likely Democratic primary voters from June 3 to 9, after Mamdani endorsed Avila Chevalier — and as pro-Espaillat entities bombarded the airwaves with negative attacks against her. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.

The survey also shows that 86 percent of respondents in the district either have a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of the mayor. Avila Chevalier is leaning heavily into Mamdani’s endorsement.

There’s no public polling in the race, though it’s evident Espaillat’s allies are anticipating a tight battle, considering the millions of dollars being poured into the race on his behalf in the homestretch. — Madison Fernandez

FROM CITY HALL

Mayor Zohran Mamdani says he needs to start fundraising now due to possibly

2029 VISION: Most political players in New York are focused on this month’s primary elections — but Mamdani is already looking well beyond them.

In a text message blast this afternoon, the mayor asked supporters to donate “any amount” they can to his 2029 reelection campaign, telling them he needs to start fundraising now because the opposition will “be better funded, better organized and ready to spend earlier than before.”

“Their fundraising is constant and prolific,” he wrote in the text obtained by Playbook. “In closed-door meetings, wealthy donors and insider operatives consider how to influence our politics year-round. That’s how our opponents secured the resources to spend $83 million against our movement last year … That’s why we’re making investments in our movement starting right now.”

Mamdani’s missive did not identify the individuals behind the opposition he described.

But a group called NYC Common Sense, spearheaded by former independent mayoral candidate Jim Walden and political consultant Phil Singer, launched last month with a stated goal of fighting his agenda with ads, policy papers and lawsuits. The group, whose formation was first reported by The New York Times, has already raised $1 million from as-of-yet unidentified donors.

Mamdani’s pivot to 2029 fundraising indicates he’s taking the nascent opposition to his democratic socialist project seriously. Trip Yang, a longtime Democratic strategist, acknowledged it’s relatively early to fundraise for 2029. Still, he said it’s a smart move.

“A strong early fundraising number is important to show the reelection is well-positioned,” Yang said.

STILL LOADING: City Council Speaker Julie Menin exuded confidence today over the newly introduced protest buffer zone bill around education facilities, which has the backing of 35 council members, a veto-proof super majority.

“I did speak with the mayor about the bill. We had a brief conversation about it,” Menin said at a press conference. “I think the new bill really addresses some concerns that we had heard.”

Menin said the revised measure would still achieve the original proposal’s goals but more narrowly defines which types of locations are included. Universities, which were flash points for some of the country’s most heated demonstrations, have been excluded from the new bill.

The original measure was vetoed by Mamdani in April after he raised concerns about its broad definition of educational facilities and the potential impacts on protests tied to ICE, fossil fuel divestment and Palestinian rights.

He allowed a similar bill to become law in April while voicing opposition to both buffer-zone bills’ framing of “all protest as a security concern.”

A spokesperson for the mayor said the administration is still “reviewing the new version of the legislation.” — Gelila Negesse

IN OTHER NEWS

— BAIT AND SWITCH: A year after New York City banned broker fees, renters say the charges never really left. (Gothamist)

— COURT-ORDERED VISITS: New York will begin to require judges to make recurring visits to prisons after years of a long-neglected oversight rule not being met. (The City Reporter)

— STRAPPED FOR CASH: The Mamdani administration is considering invoking a fiscal exception to delay required payments to nonprofits, citing cash constraints. (NBC New York)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.