Congress
A district that went +20 for Trump now in play for Democrats
NEW YORK — A new internal poll shows a Democratic House candidate is in a dead heat with his Republican challenger in an upstate New York district President Donald Trump won by 20 points in 2024.
The poll, commissioned by Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien’s campaign and conducted by the left-leaning group Impact Research, found Gendebien trailing Republican Anthony Constantino by just one percentage point, 45-44, with 11 percent of voters undecided.
The district is currently represented by outgoing Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, who congratulated Constantino on winning the GOP nomination Tuesday after he defeated Republican state Assemblymember Robert Smullen in a nasty primary.
Constantino, the CEO of a sticker company who’s self-funding his campaign with $10 million, earned Trump’s endorsement in April, a blow that proved fatal for Smullen’s primary campaign.
Constantino is an eccentric and passionate supporter of the president and recently recorded an adulatory rap album titled “Thank You President Trump.”
During the primary, he left a threatening voicemail to a constituent in the district, threatened to sue his opponent, whom he referred to as “Slimebob,” and frequently touted the 100-foot-wide Trump sign on top of his Sticker Mule factory, which he erected during Trump’s 2024 campaign. Constantino is also a former boxer.
Luke Martin, a pollster from Impact Research who works for the Gendebien campaign, said the campaign watched the primary in hopes they would face the polarizing Constantino.
“Our research has always shown that a wannabe DC insider like Constantino is very beatable in NY-21, but his rapidly increasing negatives had us concerned that we might lose our shot to run against him if he couldn’t keep it together through the primary,” Martin said in a statement. “The more money he spent, the more we saw his unfavorability tick up in our polls. The data was always clear that Robert Smullen would have been a more competitive Republican candidate for this district.”
After respondents received messaging on the two candidates, Gendebien, a dairy farmer, climbed ahead of Constantino, 49-40, with 11 percent still undecided. The poll quizzed 500 likely general election voters from May 26-31 and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.4 percent.
Forty percent of those surveyed said they voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, and 58 percent said they voted for Trump. Twenty-three percent of respondents identified as Democrat, 27 percent said they were independents and 46 percent identified as Republicans.
There has been no independent polling of the district, which is one of the largest in the northeast and stretches from the northern Catskills region to the Canadian border. Trump won the district with 60 percent of the vote.
A potential curveball in the general election is whether Smullen, a retired Marine colonel, will continue to run for the seat despite losing the Republican primary. Smullen, who has the backing of the state’s Conservative Party, is on its ballot line in November. That would set up a three-way contest between him, Gendebien and Constantino.
Smullen has not ruled out running as a Conservative Party candidate. He has until Friday, July 3 to decline the ballot line.
Another potential factor to Smullen’s decision making is that the Conservative Party’s chair, Jerry Kassar, is in a bitter, personal feud with Constantino. Kassar is suing Constantino for defamation after Constantino said Kassar threatened to kill him. Kassar told Blue Light News it’s up to Smullen whether or not he wants to run on the Conservative line.
“The party itself has no role whatsoever, until an action is taken by the candidate,” Kassar said. “Bob has not indicated to me anything other than what has been public, which is that he’s interested in staying on but is thinking it through and will make a final decision soon.”
Gendebien’s campaign declined to release survey data on a three-way race.
Battleground New York, which works to flip competitive House seats by engaging disaffected voters, said the bruising Smullen-Constantino primary has put Democrats in a winning position.
“With Democrats surging and the race already tied, Republicans in NY-21 couldn’t afford a messy primary and they got one anyway,” said Andrew Grossman, a spokesperson for the group. “They spent the entire primary proving they can’t stand each other, and now they’ve handed voters a November ballot where they can choose between the guy the party hates and the guy the nominee hates.”
Sen. Thom Tillis renewed his call for President Donald Trump to fire Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday, following the resignation earlier this week of Army Secretary Dan Driscoll.
“I have never witnessed more inept management of the brave men and women who serve our country,” the outgoing two-term North Carolina Republican wrote on X. “He is intimidated by competence and retreats to ginning up culture wars instead of soberly attending to the vital work of our national defense and the health and well-being of our fighting force.”
Driscoll, whose long-rumored resignation became official this week, had clashed with Hegseth over the Defense secretary’s reluctance to modernize the Army and his firings of dozens of senior officers. Hegseth has focused more on cultural issues — including grooming and fitness standards — within the department.
“If we had a @SecWar who maintained the same priorities and forward-thinking, he would be fighting to retain talented leaders like Dan and the many flag officers he has forced into retirement,” Tillis charged. “Instead, he is creating a leadership void at the top of our military ranks.”
The White House and Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment on Tillis’ post.
Tillis, who is not running for reelection in November, has openly clashed with Hegseth since Trump tapped the former Fox News host to lead the Pentagon in 2024.
In May, Tillis told POLITICO he believed Hegseth had misinformed Trump on the dynamics of a war in Iran. Firing Hegseth, he said, was on “a Christmas wish list.” In a book set to be released next month, Tillis branded Hegseth — along with a handful of other White House officials — as “MAGATS” and accused them of “not looking around corners and taking care of this president.”
It hasn’t earned him friends in the administration.
“The media said how brave he was to take me on, but he wasn’t brave, he was just the opposite – HE WAS A QUITTER!” Trump wrote on Truth Social in May. “Now he can have all the fun he wants for a few months, with some of his RINO friends, screwing the Republican Party. In the end it will only get bigger, and better, and stronger, than ever before!”
Despite a stern message from party leaders, a panel of House Democrats did not settle on any particular consequences for the pair of lawmakers who crossed party lines Tuesday to advance an otherwise troubled slate of Republican-led bills.
Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and fellow leaders said the matter would be reviewed by the Democratic Committee on Caucus Rules, which convened Wednesday morning for a prescheduled listening session.
Attendees discussed possible changes to the rules that govern House Democrats’ conduct for next term. Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), the panel’s chair, suggested to reporters that discussion included what should happen if members vote with Republicans on procedural measures like the one Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) supported Tuesday.
“There’s been a variety of suggestions to change our rules, not just regarding the last couple days, but several suggestions that have been percolating for some time,” Levin said, while adding that any changes would happen only “in the next couple of months.”
The lack of urgency stands in contrast to the stern statement Jeffries and fellow leaders made Tuesday about the rogue members’ “breach of trust” — not to mention the rage some rank-and-file House Democrats are expressing. Some have floated removing the pair from their committees — particularly Gluesenkamp Perez’ seat on the exclusive Appropriations panel.
“Somebody else who is willing to think about other people needs to be on that seat, that exclusive committee,” said one House Democrat granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Jeffries, who was not present at the meeting, also seemed to have a speedier timeline for responding to Gluesenkamp Perez and Golden. He told reporters after the meeting wrapped that he was waiting on feedback from Levin and that the caucus would have conversations “amongst the family about the best way to move forward.”
Asked about his timeline for action against the pair, Jeffries said, “Sooner rather than later.”
Speaker Mike Johnson said he has no plans to campaign with embattled Rep. Max Miller — or visit his home state of Ohio at all — before the midterms.
“I have no plans to go to Ohio between now and the election,” Johnson told reporters Wednesday. “I’ve said everything I can say about the situation. It’s up to the people in his district.”
Miller is running in what had been considered a safe red district before allegations of abuse from his ex-wife Emily Moreno, the daughter of GOP Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, exploded into public view in recent weeks. Ohio’s two GOP senators have called on Miller to resign.
Miller has denied any wrongdoing and has vowed to continue his reelection campaign. A spokesperson for Miller declined to comment.
Johnson said Monday that he supports Miller’s reelection bid and called him a “great member.” The House Ethics Committee is investigating the allegations, which include physical assaults on his wife and daughter.
“He’s running a good campaign,” Johnson said Wednesday. “He has a nasty divorce. He’s, of course, vehemently denied the claims made. And as I’ve said many times, we allow due process to play out.”
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