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Senate GOP embraces new strategy on reconciliation bill: Whatever can pass the House

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Senate Republicans have a new, emerging strategy on their massive reconciliation bill: See what can survive the House.

It’s easy to see where that comes from. Given its incredibly thin margin and fractious membership, the GOP House will likely have a tougher time passing any party-line legislation. Speaker Mike Johnson has pushed for putting priorities on the border, energy and taxes in one massive bill, believing that will make it easier to pass.

Senate Republicans, many of whom favor a two-track approach that would split off taxes from the border and energy policies, are set to meet with President-elect Donald Trump for the first time since taking back the chamber on Wednesday evening.

“I’m for whatever can get through the House. …It’s all on the back of the speaker,” said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.). He added that Trump has “talked quite a bit with the speaker and I think the speaker has got him convinced he can get one done.”

“Whatever they can send to us, we can pass,” echoed Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.). “I think it’s going to be very difficult for the House to deliver two things, though, but if they can, wonderful.”

Senate Republicans are hoping to get clear marching orders from Trump during their meeting. And while Trump has waffled on whether to embrace the one- or two-bill strategy, he has also signaled the plan is for the House to move first, telling reporters in Florida on Tuesday that “it goes through the House first, and the question is whether or not we do the two bills or one bill.”

This isn’t a new position for the Senate. Though Majority Leader John Thune became the first GOP leader to talk specifics about the reconciliation strategy when he told Republicans last year they would do two bills, he has found those plans scrambled by the House’s mathematical reality. Working with a microscopic majority, House GOP leadership has struggled to consistently bring its members together, even on must-pass legislation like government funding or raising the debt limit.

“I do think it’s important” for the House to move first, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said. “I think that it’s more complicated over there.”

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) acknowledged that his preference was for two bills, giving the party an early win on the border, but “the House is afraid they can’t get two passed.”

Johnson can only lose one GOP member right now on any party priority, and that margin is set to decrease once a few members leave for positions with the Trump administration. At certain points, Johnson won’t be able to lose any Republicans if he wants to pass party-line legislation. Full unity will be tough on a bill that not only includes complicated tax priorities, but also potentially raising the debt limit and spending cuts.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said he expects state and local tax deductions will be a significant point of debate in any budget reconciliation deal, particularly in the House. Republicans at the heart of the SALT debate will meet with Trump this weekend.

Daniella Diaz contributed reporting. 

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Congress

House Ethics will forge ahead with Cherfilus-McCormick trial

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The House Ethics Committee will go forward with its plans to hold a rare public trial next week for Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick.

The beleaguered Florida Democrat faces allegations that she stole millions in FEMA funding and is also in the midst of a federal criminal case on the charges. She had previously asked to pause the proceedings before the Ethics Committee pending the matter in federal court, and the panel already postponed its scheduled hearing once after a Cherfilus-McCormick said she lost her legal representation.

But the bipartisan Ethics Committee announced Wednesday that the adjudicatory subcommittee handling Cherfilus-McCormick’s case had ultimately voted to reject the latest delay request. It also rejected a motion to hold the hearing “in executive session,” as opposed to the public hearing.

“The matter of Representative Cherfilus-McCormick has been before the Committee since September 2023,” said the statement from House Ethics Committee leadership. “Further delay of the matter would not serve the interests of justice.

“Moreover,” the statement continued, “holding the entire hearing in executive session at this phase of the proceedings would depart from Committee precedent, limit public transparency around these serious allegations, and do nothing to safeguard the House’s integrity.”

The hearing will begin at 2 p.m. March 26.

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House rejects effort to force a balanced budget in the US

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Lawmakers rejected legislation Wednesday to compel the United States to maintain a balanced budget, a perennial pursuit of fiscal conservatives that stood little chance of becoming the law of the land.

The House voted 211-207 against the resolution that would have launched an effort to amend the U.S. Constitution to bar the federal government from running a deficit. It needed to clear each chamber of Congress by a two-thirds vote, then be ratified by three-fourths of all the states.

But the measure’s consideration had major symbolic meaning for budget hawks like its sponsor, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.).

“Many of us have been agitating for years to do a balanced budget amendment and out of the blue, they said, ‘we’re ready to do it,’” Biggs said in an interview Tuesday, referring to House GOP leaders.

“They didn’t ask me to do anything, didn’t offer anything,” he said of whether leaders scheduled the vote in an effort to court Biggs, who has in the past threatened to tank spending bills for where he hasn’t liked the price tag. “Just out of the blue, I got a call.”

A spokesperson for Speaker Mike Johnson did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the timing of the measure’s consideration.

Various balanced budget amendment proposals have been offered more than a hundred times since 1999, but peaked in the 1970s and 1980s. The Pew Research Center found that balancing the budget is the single most popular subject of constitutional amendment proposals since 1999, according to analysis of legislative data from the Library of Congress.

Biggs’ latest resolution stated that “total expenditures for a year shall not exceed the average annual receipts collected in the three prior years,” adjusted for inflation and changes in the population.

It would have made an exception for war, where “specific expenditures in excess of the limit” can be approved by Congress “for any year in which a declaration of war is in effect.” Modern wars after World War II have largely been funded by debt; none of them, including the decades-long Global War on Terror, were never backed up by an official declaration of war.

The Biggs measure also would have instituted a two-thirds majority vote threshold in both chambers as necessary to approve any new tax or increase the tax rate. The GOP megabill passed last summer, which included significant tax cuts, passed the Senate in a simple majority vote through the filibuster-skirting budget reconciliation process.

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Kiley switches parties, loses committees

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Rep. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican who recently registered as an Independent, said in an interview Wednesday he plans to caucus with the House GOP and will seek to regain his committee assignments.

The California lawmaker was formally removed from his panels Wednesday after giving official notice he was switching parties to serve as an Independent and run in a new district after his state redrew congressional maps.

The House GOP Steering Committee will need to approve Kiley’s effort to take back his seats on Education and the Workforce, Transportation and Infrastructure and Judiciary. Kiley told reporters this was “completely expected” and that he looked “forward to being reappointed as an Independent.”

Mia McCarthy contributed to this report.

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