Politics
Inside the overlooked multi-million dollar fight to block Republicans’ Missouri gerrymander
Republicans and Democrats are quietly pouring millions of dollars into a fight trying to block Missouri’s new gerrymandered congressional map, as each party scrambles for any advantage they can find in the national fight for the House majority in 2026.
Missouri is one of six states that have redrawn their congressional lines — after President Donald Trump kicked off the redistricting war by pushing Texas to redraw — with the GOP-dominated legislature passing a new map in September that would eliminate Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s Kansas City-based seat.
But unlike in many other states, Democrats have a clearer path to try to block the map, at least for next year’s midterms. They’ve now launched an effort that operatives in the state say is attracting an unprecedented amount of money — and legal fights.
“Imagine the kind of democratic paralysis our state would be in if this happened every 10 years, or every time we decided to draw new maps,” said Aaron Blake, a GOP strategist based in Missouri. “That would just be chaos.”
Almost immediately after the map passed, Democrats in the state organized a campaign to repeal the new map through popular referendum. The campaign committee, People Not Politicians, will need to submit about 107,000 valid signatures before the Dec. 11 deadline to send the new maps to a referendum. If they submit enough valid signatures, the state would be temporarily unable to enact the new maps until voters can weigh in on the ballot measure.
Well-funded organizations on both sides have since rushed into the state, duking it out in a fight that has already spawned a complicated nest of court cases and some aggressive tactics seeking to undermine Democrats’ referendum campaign.
If the state’s new maps do come to a referendum, some Republicans are concerned voters might reject their bid to aid Trump’s effort to skew the odds of maintaining control of the House in Republicans’ favor.
“It will be a very uphill battle for Republicans if [the referendum] is on the ballot,” Blake said.
Democrats in Missouri, meanwhile, are confident they’ll have enough signatures to push the maps to a referendum — and they’re optimistic voters will be on their side when it comes time to vote on the maps.
“[Republicans] are afraid for this to go on the ballot, because they believe that Missourians will vote it down,” said Doug Beck, the top Democrat in the state Senate. “That’s why they’re trying as hard as they can to not let it go to the ballot.”
The Republican National Committee and the National Republican Campaign Committee donated a combined $100,000 days after the Put Missouri First PAC, the GOP’s ballot measure-focused committee, was formed. That was followed by two separate $1 million contributions from the Trump-aligned Securing American Greatness PAC and the American Action Network, the nonprofit arm of House Republicans’ primary super PAC.
Officers for Put Missouri First — including the group’s treasurer and a law firm that shares the organization’s address — did not respond to interview requests.
On Wednesday, Donald Trump Jr. urged his social media followers to support the effort to block the referendum — a sign of the battle’s growing significance to Republicans outside of the state.
For the most part, Democrats in Washington have stayed out of People Not Politicians’ signature gathering campaign. But Democratic-aligned dark money groups have stepped in to contribute over $1.25 million to People Not Politicians, including a $500,000 contribution from American Opportunity Action, a newly-created left-leaning nonprofit that is also supporting a ballot measure campaign in Michigan to block a rewriting of the state’s constitution.
The committee also received $250,000 from former Rep. Cori Bush, the Missouri progressive who was first elected in 2020 but lost a primary in her St. Louis-area district last year. Bush is running for Congress again in the same seat, which would be largely unaffected by Missouri’s new map.
That level of fundraising from both parties is striking for a ballot measure fight in a state with a long history of referendum battles. Benjamin Singer — who has worked on different referendum committees in Missouri since 2018, and is the campaign director for a group seeking to put a constitutional amendment in front of voters to strengthen the state’s referendum laws — said he’s never seen a ballot measure fight with as much money coming in for both sides of the issue.
“They haven’t dominated with the big money, because they haven’t needed to,” he said.
Some opponents are seeking to impede Democrats’ signature collecting through questionable tactics. The Kansas City Star obtained a copy of a contract offering a canvasser for People Not Politicians $5,000 to stop collecting signatures. The paper could not identify the source of the contract, which Blue Light News has not independently verified.
And Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, a Republican, has sought to use Trump’s aggressive anti-immigration moves to target a firm working on signature collection for People Not Politicians that she accused of employing “illegal aliens.”
In a pair of social media statements, Hanaway said her office is investigating the firm, Advanced Micro Targeting, and said she’s contacted ICE about the situation. Advanced Micro Targeting has denied Hanaway’s claims.
Hanaway is also fighting against a potential referendum in the courtroom — she filed a federal lawsuit asking a judge to declare that a referendum to block the legislature’s new maps violates both the U.S. Constitution and Missouri’s Constitution, leaning on principles of the “independent state legislature” theory that the Supreme Court largely rejected in the Moore v. Harper case in 2023.
In a statement, Hanaway said “Missouri will not allow out-of-state political groups to silence the voices of our citizens or override our state’s constitutional process. The Missouri Attorney General’s Office will defend the authority of Missouri’s elected representatives at every turn.”
Zachary Bluestone, a Trump-appointed judge assigned to the case, said he’ll decide whether to block the referendum ahead of the Dec. 11 deadline to submit signatures.
The federal case is one of at least seven lawsuits filed over the new maps or the potential referendum. Among those is a case brought to a Missouri state court by the ACLU, which has partnered with People Not Politicians, seeking to nullify the new congressional districts on the grounds that mid-decade redistricting violates a clause in the state’s constitution.
People Not Politicians is separately suing Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins for his handling of referendum procedure, including authoring language for the potential ballot measure that frames the old maps with six GOP-leaning seats as “gerrymandered,” and the new district lines with seven GOP-leaning seats as being a “more compact” map that “better reflects statewide voting patterns.”
“What’s going on in Missouri is an example of constitutional hardball,” said Travis Crum, a professor at Washington University Law School in St. Louis who specializes in election law.
And even if the ballot referendum goes in front of voters, it isn’t a guarantee the map will be blocked for 2026. The plethora of redistricting-related court cases in Missouri are being adjudicated in hearings and rulings that will likely occur before the end of January — giving state election officials enough time to schedule a potential ballot measure election next year, operatives and court watchers said.
“I just think the noise has peaked or will be peaking between now and mid-January,” Blake, the GOP consultant, said.
A version of this article first appeared in Blue Light News Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to Blue Light News Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
Turning Point USA has gone all-in to make GOP Rep. Andy Biggs the next governor of Arizona, their top priority of the cycle.
It appears they will come up short.
Biggs was the last candidate Turning Point founder Charlie Kirk personally endorsed before he was killed one year ago. Kirk himself recruited the longtime ally in their home state to run for governor this cycle — and Turning Point has since spent $18 million, the most they’ve dropped for anyone this cycle, to try to salvage his campaign.
“It’s a legacy thing for them,” said former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.). “This is their swan song. This is kind of all-or-nothing for them.”
But Biggs, a former chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and close ally of President Donald Trump who previously served as Arizona Senate president, has trailed Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in virtually every public poll of the race this year, most of them outside the margin of error. And some Arizona Republicans have been baffled by Turning Point’s strategy.
The group faces immense criticism from within the state GOP for delaying its biggest spending until September, just weeks before ballots were sent out, according to conversations with 10 local operatives and officials.
Biggs’ race is the most high-stakes political test for Turning Point Action since Kirk’s 2025 death, and the result will have major implications for the group’s reputation and relevancy within the GOP moving forward. Turning Point has already preemptively endorsed Vice President JD Vance, who was particularly close to Kirk, for president. Should Vance decide to run, he could rely on Turning Point’s ground operation in swing states like Arizona and beyond.
The group could well overperform this year, and if they are successful in lifting Biggs in their home state, it could send a signal. But a loss could have 2028 repercussions, too.
“If JD Vance intends to run for president, I think it would be a good idea to reevaluate any thoughts he might have about utilizing Turning Point Action as his field operation,” said Gina Swoboda, a former chair of the Arizona Republican Party who has openly sparred with the organization.
A spokesperson for Vance did not respond to a request for comment.
Other Republicans, including the Biggs’ campaign, said they’re grateful that Turning Point didn’t wave the white flag in a tough year for the GOP, as voters reel from the impact of Trump’s policies.
“Turning Point Action’s investments both on the ground and over the airwaves in Arizona have been tremendous. We are very grateful they’ve stepped up to support Andy and Republicans up and down the ballot in an extremely difficult environment,” Biggs campaign spokesperson Drew Sexton said in a statement.
In a statement, Tyler Bowyer, chief operating officer of Turning Point Action, said he is “very proud of the strides we have made in Arizona and other swing states.” He emphasized TP Action is “a Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) centric organization” and not TV-focused, pointing the blame elsewhere.
“It is the job of national apparatus groups to go on air early and support Republican nominees,” he said. “We of course are disappointed that more national Republican dollars are not matching the national Democrat dollars being spent on Presidential swing states like Arizona.”
While the RGA has stayed out of the race, the Democratic Governors Association has spent at least $10 million.
Hobbs, who was elected to the purple state’s governorship in 2022, launched her first general election TV ad in May, while Biggs was still focused on his late July primary. At the time, Turning Point mocked Hobbs for “spending like a drunken sailor” by launching spending so early.
But now, Republicans say that Hobbs was able to entrench her lead in the race by spending early while Biggs was dark on the airwaves — and blame Turning Point along with other GOP outside groups like the Republican Governors Association for not spending earlier to keep the race competitive. The RGA declined to comment on their decision not to spend in the race.
In a state like Arizona, where an incumbent governor hasn’t lost reelection since 1966 and some 80% of voters cast ballots before Election Day, a late deluge of cash is less likely to sway the race.
“If you’re spending that much money, a big portion of that would’ve been really helpful earlier in the race when Andy was completely broke, he didn’t have two nickels to rub together, and Hobbs was dominating the airwaves with no response and beating the crap out of Andy,” said Salmon.”A lot of us are scratching our heads.”
Biggs’ campaign reported just $1.26 million cash on hand in July, while Hobbs’ campaign reported double that. Many donors to former GOP Gov. Doug Ducey have stayed on the sidelines this year.
One Republican operative working on other Arizona races, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that at this point, “No amount of spending is going to change the fact that Biggs is going to lose.”
“In all likelihood, the top statewide seats are going Democrat. And Turning Point owns it,” the strategist added. “They wanted to be the player. They wanted to be the guy. Guess what? They are.”
Many local Republicans are frustrated that the RGA never spent a penny on the top race in a state Trump won in 2024. While Biggs was getting hammered early on the airwaves, the RGA was spending nearly $4 million on the Wisconsin Democratic primary to boost a democratic socialist who narrowly lost.
For several cycles, Turning Point has muscled statewide candidates through messy Republican primaries, only to see them falter in November. In 2022, it pushed hardliners Blake Masters and Kari Lake as nominees for U.S. Senate and governor, only to see both lose. In 2024, they backed Lake’s bid for Senate; even as Trump won Arizona by five points, Lake lost by two.
Biggs, some Republicans thought, would be different. He had high name ID statewide and a track record of public service for Arizona, both in the state Senate and the U.S. House. Kirk himself personally urged Biggs to enter the governor’s race, Biggs told the Arizona Republic, even though Trump had already endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson, a Phoenix attorney and businesswoman, early in the race.
After Biggs entered the race in January 2025, Trump split his endorsement between Robson and Biggs — and Turning Point took a victory lap.
“Turning Point Action will marshall our organization’s full resources, ground game, and support behind the Biggs for Arizona campaign, and we’re honored to be able to do so,” Charlie Kirk said in a May 2025 statement. “He has my full and complete endorsement.”
Robson later dropped out, and Turning Point helped Biggs romp to a massive victory in the primary. Next Tuesday will test if their general-election acumen has improved.
Moderates put the left on notice
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DEARBORN, MICHIGAN — “A threat to America.” “Radical ideology.” “A jihadist.”
President Donald Trump and Republicans are ratcheting up their efforts to brand Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a Michigan-born Muslim whose parents emigrated from Egypt, as an “extremist” in the final days of the state’s critical Senate race.
It has sparked concern among some El-Sayed supporters, who fear the deluge of attacks could break through to some undecided voters. It has infuriated some of the president’s one-time Muslim and Arab allies in the state with the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the country, who view the comments as Islamophobic and racist. And it has caused some of them to lose hope in Republicans.
“You turned off a lot of people. Even people that were working to get Trump elected and get people to vote Republican here have flipped. We did all this work for them to turn around and use us as enemies, to be able just to win an election,” said Hassan Nehme, a GOP statehouse candidate and former Michigan Republican Party vice chair who helped lead Arab American outreach for the GOP in 2024. He is undecided in how he’ll vote in this year’s Senate race. “It’s to the point [where] I’m like, why am I even fighting to be in this party?”
Republicans’ increasingly incendiary rhetoric in the crucial Senate race is overshadowing the close of an already polarizing election.
“Michigan is a battleground. That’s the truth. And racism is real,” Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, a Democrat in an Arab-majority city who is backing El-Sayed, said in an interview at his office Tuesday. “If you have folks who refuse to vote for somebody because of the direction in which they pray, it most certainly has an impact.”
Hammoud believes most voters will see past it. But Republicans are bearing down.
Trump, who has repeatedly mocked and mispronounced El-Sayed’s name, labeled him a “jihadist” during a rally for GOP nominee Mike Rogers in Port Huron this past Sunday and said he would “be unable to get a seat on an airplane.”
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in a campaign event with Rogers in Grand Rapids on Monday, claimed the world’s 500 million Arabs no longer produce award-winning science or literature and instead create “stagnant societies that do two things — hatred and war and victimization.”
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), while campaigning for Rogers in Michigan on Wednesday, called El-Sayed a “jihadist leprechaun.”
Ads from Rogers’ campaign and allied GOP groups attacking El-Sayed in this vein run in rotation across Michigan television. Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP Senate super PAC, says El-Sayed gets “dirty money” from an “Islamic extremist group” that is “tied to Hamas.” Rogers, in a direct-to-camera clip, calls El-Sayed “a threat to America.”
Bishara Bahbah, an Arizona resident who founded Arab Americans for Trump and helped facilitate Trump’s 2024 outreach to Michigan’s Arab community, said Trump’s Sunday comments cross “a red line.”
“The only consequence that I can see from these comments is a complete reversal of the support in Michigan and other states where Arabs and Muslims vote, toward the Democratic Party.”
Rogers has been more specific in how he’s gone after his opponent. He has attacked El-Sayed for taking campaign donations from donors affiliated with the Council on American-Islamic Relations, a Muslim advocacy group, which Republicans have long attacked as a terrorist group even though the U.S. government has not designated it as such. He’s alleged ties between El-Sayed’s family and the Muslim Brotherhood, in part through El-Sayed’s father-in-law’s involvement with CAIR and the Islamic Society of North America, another Muslim group. El-Sayed’s campaign referred to past statements from both CAIR and ISNA denying affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood. Rogers has also referenced El-Sayed’s mother’s work for a charity that the Bush administration classified as a supporter of terrorist groups, as reported by The New York Times.
El-Sayed has disavowed the Muslim Brotherhood and said his family has “no” ties to it. El-Sayed’s parents separated when he was three years old, and he says he was raised by his father and stepmother. His campaign responded to Trump’s rally in a statement saying while Trump and Rogers “lie and resort to desperate, bad faith attacks, Abdul remains laser focused on his plans to bring down costs and stand up to the chaos and corruption in Washington.”
“I’m not worried,” El-Sayed told reporters at a Detroit union hall on Monday, “because just like I did 18 months ago when I kicked off this campaign, I am taking a bet on the bigness of Michiganders.”
And President Barack Obama, in a rally with El-Sayed in Detroit on Saturday, said: “This stuff didn’t work on me, not in Michigan. It’s not going to work on Abdul.”
But some of El-Sayed’s allies are concerned.
James Tate, president of the Detroit City Council noted that El-Sayed “can’t defend himself in every household.”
El-Sayed’s campaign and his allies are fighting back by knocking on doors and hitting the airwaves, a sign they’re cognizant the attacks could have an impact. One El-Sayed ad features his white step-grandparents responding to some of Trump’s attacks. “Communist? We’re Presbyterian!” his grandparents say in the spot.
El-Sayed cut another ad featuring images of a menorah and of him praying with Black parishioners.
“His faith — I think that scares some people,” said Dana Harris, the director of the Coalition of Black Trade Unionists, who was doorknocking for El-Sayed across northwest Detroit last Saturday. “But at the end of the day. he’s a human being like the rest of us. And he wants change.”
Rogers and his allies say questioning ties to extremist organizations doesn’t equate to Islamophobia. Rogers’ campaign referred Blue Light News to comments he made ahead of Trump and Kennedy’s events.
“This is not about Islam. It’s not about how he prays,” Rogers said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday morning. “It is about his adherence to this radical Islamic agenda.”
In a statement, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said Trump “will continue to unapologetically fight for American greatness and call out extremists like Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed without apology.”
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