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Inside the overlooked multi-million dollar fight to block Republicans’ Missouri gerrymander

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Republicans and Democrats are quietly pouring millions of dollars into a fight trying to block Missouri’s new gerrymandered congressional map, as each party scrambles for any advantage they can find in the national fight for the House majority in 2026.

Missouri is one of six states that have redrawn their congressional lines — after President Donald Trump kicked off the redistricting war by pushing Texas to redraw — with the GOP-dominated legislature passing a new map in September that would eliminate Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s Kansas City-based seat.

But unlike in many other states, Democrats have a clearer path to try to block the map, at least for next year’s midterms. They’ve now launched an effort that operatives in the state say is attracting an unprecedented amount of money — and legal fights.

“Imagine the kind of democratic paralysis our state would be in if this happened every 10 years, or every time we decided to draw new maps,” said Aaron Blake, a GOP strategist based in Missouri. “That would just be chaos.”

Almost immediately after the map passed, Democrats in the state organized a campaign to repeal the new map through popular referendum. The campaign committee, People Not Politicians, will need to submit about 107,000 valid signatures before the Dec. 11 deadline to send the new maps to a referendum. If they submit enough valid signatures, the state would be temporarily unable to enact the new maps until voters can weigh in on the ballot measure.

Well-funded organizations on both sides have since rushed into the state, duking it out in a fight that has already spawned a complicated nest of court cases and some aggressive tactics seeking to undermine Democrats’ referendum campaign.

If the state’s new maps do come to a referendum, some Republicans are concerned voters might reject their bid to aid Trump’s effort to skew the odds of maintaining control of the House in Republicans’ favor.

“It will be a very uphill battle for Republicans if [the referendum] is on the ballot,” Blake said.

Democrats in Missouri, meanwhile, are confident they’ll have enough signatures to push the maps to a referendum — and they’re optimistic voters will be on their side when it comes time to vote on the maps.

“[Republicans] are afraid for this to go on the ballot, because they believe that Missourians will vote it down,” said Doug Beck, the top Democrat in the state Senate. “That’s why they’re trying as hard as they can to not let it go to the ballot.”

The Republican National Committee and the National Republican Campaign Committee donated a combined $100,000 days after the Put Missouri First PAC, the GOP’s ballot measure-focused committee, was formed. That was followed by two separate $1 million contributions from the Trump-aligned Securing American Greatness PAC and the American Action Network, the nonprofit arm of House Republicans’ primary super PAC.

Officers for Put Missouri First — including the group’s treasurer and a law firm that shares the organization’s address — did not respond to interview requests.

On Wednesday, Donald Trump Jr. urged his social media followers to support the effort to block the referendum — a sign of the battle’s growing significance to Republicans outside of the state.

For the most part, Democrats in Washington have stayed out of People Not Politicians’ signature gathering campaign. But Democratic-aligned dark money groups have stepped in to contribute over $1.25 million to People Not Politicians, including a $500,000 contribution from American Opportunity Action, a newly-created left-leaning nonprofit that is also supporting a ballot measure campaign in Michigan to block a rewriting of the state’s constitution.

The committee also received $250,000 from former Rep. Cori Bush, the Missouri progressive who was first elected in 2020 but lost a primary in her St. Louis-area district last year. Bush is running for Congress again in the same seat, which would be largely unaffected by Missouri’s new map.

That level of fundraising from both parties is striking for a ballot measure fight in a state with a long history of referendum battles. Benjamin Singer — who has worked on different referendum committees in Missouri since 2018, and is the campaign director for a group seeking to put a constitutional amendment in front of voters to strengthen the state’s referendum laws — said he’s never seen a ballot measure fight with as much money coming in for both sides of the issue.

“They haven’t dominated with the big money, because they haven’t needed to,” he said.

Some opponents are seeking to impede Democrats’ signature collecting through questionable tactics. The Kansas City Star obtained a copy of a contract offering a canvasser for People Not Politicians $5,000 to stop collecting signatures. The paper could not identify the source of the contract, which Blue Light News has not independently verified.

And Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, a Republican, has sought to use Trump’s aggressive anti-immigration moves to target a firm working on signature collection for People Not Politicians that she accused of employing “illegal aliens.”

In a pair of social media statements, Hanaway said her office is investigating the firm, Advanced Micro Targeting, and said she’s contacted ICE about the situation. Advanced Micro Targeting has denied Hanaway’s claims.

Hanaway is also fighting against a potential referendum in the courtroom — she filed a federal lawsuit asking a judge to declare that a referendum to block the legislature’s new maps violates both the U.S. Constitution and Missouri’s Constitution, leaning on principles of the “independent state legislature” theory that the Supreme Court largely rejected in the Moore v. Harper case in 2023.

In a statement, Hanaway said “Missouri will not allow out-of-state political groups to silence the voices of our citizens or override our state’s constitutional process. The Missouri Attorney General’s Office will defend the authority of Missouri’s elected representatives at every turn.”

Zachary Bluestone, a Trump-appointed judge assigned to the case, said he’ll decide whether to block the referendum ahead of the Dec. 11 deadline to submit signatures.

The federal case is one of at least seven lawsuits filed over the new maps or the potential referendum. Among those is a case brought to a Missouri state court by the ACLU, which has partnered with People Not Politicians, seeking to nullify the new congressional districts on the grounds that mid-decade redistricting violates a clause in the state’s constitution.

People Not Politicians is separately suing Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins for his handling of referendum procedure, including authoring language for the potential ballot measure that frames the old maps with six GOP-leaning seats as “gerrymandered,” and the new district lines with seven GOP-leaning seats as being a “more compact” map that “better reflects statewide voting patterns.”

“What’s going on in Missouri is an example of constitutional hardball,” said Travis Crum, a professor at Washington University Law School in St. Louis who specializes in election law.

And even if the ballot referendum goes in front of voters, it isn’t a guarantee the map will be blocked for 2026. The plethora of redistricting-related court cases in Missouri are being adjudicated in hearings and rulings that will likely occur before the end of January — giving state election officials enough time to schedule a potential ballot measure election next year, operatives and court watchers said.

“I just think the noise has peaked or will be peaking between now and mid-January,” Blake, the GOP consultant, said.

A version of this article first appeared in Blue Light News Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to Blue Light News Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

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World Cup attendance: The potential 2028ers

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Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania has notched a lead in the 2028 World Cup primary, having attended three matches leading into the knockout round — just ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

In an interview with Blue Light News this week at the FIFA Fan Festival at Fairmount Park’s Lemon Hill, Shapiro reveled in Philadelphia’s host duties — and the World Cup more broadly.

“I’m especially proud to see people from all across the world coming here to Philadelphia and being greeted not just by a governor who’s happy they’re here, but by Philadelphians and Pennsylvanians who are thrilled to see them here,” Shapiro told Blue Light News in an interview. “I think we are better than [President] Donald Trump’s cruel rhetoric. We are better than his cruel policies, and I think we’re seeing that on display here during the World Cup in Philly.”

Here are the potential 2028 presidential hopefuls who have attended a World Cup game so far:

— Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro: 3 matches (Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador; France vs. Iraq; Curaçao vs. Ivory Coast)

— Secretary of State Marco Rubio: 2 matches (U.S. vs. Paraguay; Colombia vs. Portugal)

— California Gov. Gavin Newsom: 1 match (U.S. vs. Paraguay)

— Former Vice President Kamala Harris: 1 match (U.S. vs. Turkey)

— Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 1 match (U.S. vs. Australia)

— Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: 1 match (Scotland vs. Brazil)

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‘Héros canadiens’: Carney cheers Canada’s late win

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney celebrated his country’s knockout victory over South Africa on Sunday afternoon, posting — in English and in French, of course — that the squad were, “True Canadian heroes,” and adding, “What a game. What a team. What a country.”

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AI regulation group is biggest spender on World Cup TV ads

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Political campaigns and committees spent $740,330 on World Cup advertising during the first two U.S. matches, according to an analysis by AdImpact for Blue Light News.

An artificial intelligence regulation PAC and two political groups allied with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) emerged among the top spenders on TV ads.

Jobs and Democracy PAC, led by former Reps. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) and Brad Carson (D-Okla.) and aimed at backing Republican and Democratic candidates “committed to defending the public interest against those who aim to buy their way out of sensible AI regulation,” spent $240,000 on ads during the U.S. match against Australia on June 19.

Stronger America, an issue advocacy 501(c)(4) organization aligned with Collins, spent $149,000 across the June 12 and June 19 U.S. matches. And Pine Tree Results PAC, also aligned with Collins, spent $76,000 across both matches.

Republicans view Maine’s Senate race, which pits Collins against Democrat Graham Platner, as “the linchpin” in “this year’s fight for control of the Senate,” they have told donors.

“The first U.S. World Cup game was the most watched soccer broadcast in American history,” a GOP operative working on the Maine Senate race, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, previously told POLITICO. “Maine markets are performing better than national average and the critical Portland DMA has a significant soccer fan base.”

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee super PAC, United Democracy Project, was another big spender, dropping $58,150 during the first U.S. match.

House Majority Forward, the nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership, spent $13,450 during the first match. One Nation, the Senate GOP leadership-aligned group, spent $14,500 across both matches.

A collection of other senatorial and gubernatorial candidates also backed ads throughout the first matches. Businessman Perry Johnson, who is running for Michigan governor, spent $43,270.

“In a Michigan summer when people spend more time outside rather than watching regular programming, you have to go to where there are eyeballs,” John Yob, Johnson’s general consultant, told Blue Light News. “World Cup games have become opportunities for friends to gather and watch outdoor TVs on decks, at the lake, and at outdoor bars across the state.”

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