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Republicans are barreling toward an Obamacare subsidy cliff — with no unified plan

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Republicans are barreling toward the upcoming Obamacare enrollment period without a unified plan to address the sticker shock that millions of Americans are likely to experience due to the expiration of key federal subsidies.

The lack of direction comes from the top, with President Donald Trump not providing clear guidance to his party on how he wants to deal with the expiring subsidies that could result in dramatic out-of-pocket price hikes for enrollees.

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) said he spoke to the president on the phone about a week ago to talk about a yearlong extension of the enhanced subsidies. He said Trump asked him: “Can’t we do something better?” But Van Drew said he replied, “Mr. President, we don’t have the time.”

Trump’s lack of urgency in extending the subsidies and his interest in a major health care overhaul — as he has now mentioned in a private meeting with Democratic leaders as well as with Republicans — is complicating GOP leaders’ efforts to address expiring health insurance subsidies that affect 20 million Americans without fully repealing Obamacare, according to four Republicans granted anonymity to disclose private deliberations. Hill Republicans will need Trump’s signoff to do anything with the Affordable Care Act subsidies, and they’re starting to run short on time.

On Nov. 1, most consumers can start shopping for next year’s ACA plans. But without legislation to extend the enhanced subsidies beyond this calendar year, those plans will appear on enrollment websites as substantially more expensive than this year’s out-of-pocket costs.

Press secretary Karoline Leavitt was noncommittal Thursday about what the president would do to address the potential spike and demanded Democrats first vote to reopen the government.

“I’ll just point out the irony in Democrats holding the government and the American public hostage over a health care system that they created,” Leavitt said. “Republicans have always said it’s a broken system, yes, but [Democrats] caused it, and now they want to shut down the government to fix it.”

Hers is a view shared by some in the president’s orbit. Many don’t believe Trump needs to embark on a rescue mission to save former President Barack Obama’s health law.

“I don’t think the president cares to save Obama’s legacy legislation that has proved to be a failure and an ongoing headache for everyone involved,” said a person familiar with the administration’s thinking, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues. “I do see a scenario where the president sees a pathway for a health care policy bill that could receive some bipartisan support.”

The expiration is largely not a swing state issue, but more of an issue in lower-income, deep-red districts where Trump has a loyal base of supporters, the person said.

“This isn’t a [Rep.] Mike Lawler problem, funny enough, it’s a [Rep.] Marjorie Taylor Greene issue. They have room to weather the storm,” the person said, adding a note of caution: “But if constituents are being hurt because they are less fortunate on health care, there needs to be an answer to that.”

Republicans in the White House and Capitol Hill have no plans to change that strategy, confident that Democrats will blink and face blame for the funding lapse. Republicans also feel they’re making headway with the message that Obamacare is in need of rescue, because, as they argue, it’s grown too expensive and is failing Americans.

A person close to the White House, granted anonymity to describe administration officials’ thinking, said the GOP message will be focused on exposing Obamacare’s expense — and placing blame on Democrats for sunsetting the subsidies in a 2022 law they passed on party lines, the Inflation Reduction Act.

“Democrats have to be really careful, because they’re going to get exposed on one, how expensive Obamacare is,” the person said. “And two, they were the ones that put that in the Inflation Reduction Act, where the subsidies sunset.”

GOP leaders are trying to keep in pace with the White House and ensure Trump doesn’t give in to Democrats’ demands to negotiate a way out of the shutdown. The president this week, after a call with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson, reinforced their message that he would meet with Democratic leaders but only after they reopen the government.

Still, Republican leaders and White House officials areramping up behind-the-scenes talks on a potential subsidies extension with conservative reforms paired with other health care policies, which would need bipartisan support to pass in Congress.

While congressional Republicans aren’t feeling pressure from Trump, some argue they also aren’t feeling pressure from constituents at home yet about the expiring subsidies.

“Right now my sense is that the vast majority of Republicans feel very little political pressure on the enhanced subsidy issue,” said a senior GOP staffer who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Our phones are mostly quiet, which is a clear sign Democrats’ claims aren’t convincing.”

But a swath of Republicans are getting an earful from constituents — and are getting antsy about an ACA extension deal, albeit with new restrictions on the subsidies.

“If it’s not too late, it’s damn close,” Van Drew said about finding a solution without disruptions during ACA open enrollment, which begins Nov. 1. Van Drew said that he argued to the president to extend the tax credits for a year to buy time for a better solution.

“For one year, let’s really work hard on this and come up with something innovative,” he said. The president told him he understood and that he would look into it, Van Drew said.

Some Republicans are also privately discussing the need for Congress, or Trump, to act to extend the window for open enrollment — especially to protect some of their most vulnerable Republicans up for reelection.

Johnson didn’t rule out that possibility in a brief interview Wednesday, simply saying he would not forecast any outcome at this point.

He indicated, though, it was on Republicans’ radar.

“If we can get the government reopened, we have lots of thoughtful discussion to have on that and other issues,” Johnson added.

Other Republicans who are in touch with health insurance companies suggest insurers could recalibrate premiums based on a deal that happens after Nov. 1.

“I don’t think it’s too late. I mean, I think the beautiful thing about modern technology is you can make adjustments,” Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.) told reporters this week. “And these insurance companies are very sophisticated, and they’ll be able to run these numbers off the bill very quickly.”

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Congress

Schumer rolls out Democrats’ midterm energy pitch

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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer rolled out an energy and climate change agenda Wednesday as a preview of what Democrats have in store if they take the chamber’s majority in November’s elections.

Schumer’s five-point plan seeks to ride the national momentum on affordability, framing Democrats as the party not just of clean energy and fighting climate change, but of lower electricity bills and more jobs.

It touches on some longtime Democratic priorities — like bringing back the Inflation Reduction Act clean energy tax incentives that President Donald Trump and Republicans rolled back last year — and easing permitting hurdles for wind, solar and other zero-emissions energy sources.

“We can bring new voters and allies into the fight for a cleaner environment by showing how clean energy is affordable energy,” Schumer said.

“With this new expanded coalition, putting us back in the majority, we have an opportunity to put forward new policy solutions, strong policy solutions, that tell the American people we can both lower costs and make real progress on climate change,” he continued.

Schumer presented the plan at the League of Conservation Voters’ annual Capital Dinner, gathering hundreds of donors, lawmakers, environmental staff and others.

The group, long a major Democratic ally, is one of the nation’s top election spenders, and is poised to be a major part of Democrats’ attempts to recover from their 2024 losses.

Clean energy, Schumer said, is “the cheapest and fastest way to add energy to the grid, and reduces our emissions at the same time.”

The Democrats’ plan seeks to build out more electricity transmission and storage, make sure data centers pay their fair share for energy, and better protect consumers from electricity bill increases.

While many of the pillars are longtime priorities on the left, Schumer emphasized some new priorities. The plan puts geothermal and nuclear energy, including fusion, on a similar level to renewables like wind and solar.

Schumer is also promising “a thorough re-examination of the entire structure and incentives within our energy systems … to prioritize lowering costs,” and new efforts to make electricity bills “easier to understand.”

While Democrats have been engaging with Republicans toward bipartisan permitting legislation for all forms of energy, Schumer presented a more partisan permitting concept in his speech.

“Democrats will provide legislative certainty for clean energy projects, so that workers and investors can rebuild the clean energy project ecosystem that Trump has destroyed,” he said, adding that permitting legislation “never, never must come at the expense of our obligation to protect local communities and safeguard the environment.”

Democrats have not been particularly vocal on climate change in their drive to take the Senate and House majorities, as they reexamine the issue’s palatability with voters. Schumer’s rollout shows at least some willingness to focus on climate, but keeps the party’s priority on affordability.

Democrats currently hold 47 of the Senate’s seats, so they would need a net gain of four seats to get the majority. The party is focusing on candidates like former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Gov. Janet Mills in Maine and former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska to get there, but it’s an uphill battle.

The party has also taken recent steps to push its energy agenda in the Senate. Earlier Tuesday, Democrats forced a vote on a resolution that sought to undo Trump’s implementation of clean energy tax policies. More such resolutions are forthcoming.

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Congress

Special election shocker has Florida Republicans nervous about redistricting

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Florida has been viewed for months as the potential capstone of a GOP redistricting campaign, but now Sunshine State Republicans are growing wary after the dramatic flip of two legislative seats in the state — including one where President Donald Trump votes.

Republicans already hold a commanding 20-8 edge over Democrats in the Florida House delegation, and some in the GOP — including Gov. Ron DeSantis — believe they could pick up as many as five more seats with a rare mid-decade redraw of district lines.

Some Florida incumbents are now warning in stark terms it could backfire.

“I think the Legislature needs to be very cognizant of the fact that if they get too aggressive … you could put incumbent members at risk,” GOP Rep. Greg Steube said. Some seats that Republicans previously won by eight or nine points, he said, could instead have only a four- or five-point GOP advantage — putting them in reach for Democrats in a wave election.

DeSantis, citing a state Supreme Court decision from last year and a potential ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court, has already called a special session of the state Legislature in April to push ahead with new lines. So far there have been no official maps produced or any signs that lawmakers have started working on them.

Republican anxiety has only grown further after Democrats notched surprising wins in special elections Tuesday, including a Palm Beach County district that contains the Mar-a-Largo resort where Trump lives and votes.

While many in the GOP have brushed off the Democratic gains there and in other states as anomalies, private qualms are growing among the incumbents whose seats could be put at greater risk due to redistricting.

“We keep saying these are kind of one-off things that haven’t gone our way,” said one Florida House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But I’m not seeing any of the one-offs that are going our way.”

“To talk as aggressively as some of what we’ve heard, there’s no way to get there without significantly weakening some districts,” the member added.

House Democrats are hoping to capitalize on the opportunity. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries quickly sent a warning Tuesday night that redistricting could backfire.

“We will crush House Republicans in November if DeSantis tries to gerrymander the Florida congressional map,” Jeffries said in a post on X.

Others are openly objecting to redistricting on more high-minded grounds. Rep. Daniel Webster, a veteran Republican from central Florida, called it a “slippery slope.”

“I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it can come back and bite you,” he said.

“I don’t like this redistricting stuff,” Jacksonville-area Rep. John Rutherford said, noting south Florida would likely bear the brunt of any changes. “But if they think they can get another two seats or something, have at it.”

Any significant redraw in Florida would likely focus on changing districts that were drawn based on racial considerations, the subject of the court rulings DeSantis has cited. While much of the focus has been on seats held by Democrats, Republicans concede it could lead to changes to the Miami-area district represented by GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart.

Some incumbents are also worried that redistricting — still weeks away — is hindering their reelection campaigns as the midterms approach.

“Why would you knock on doors if you don’t know if those doors are gonna be in your district or not?” Steube said.

The hand-wringing over Florida comes as the fallout from Trump’s monthslong redistricting push continues to ripple through the House. Republicans kicked things off with a surprise effort to draw new maps in Texas, but Democrats countered with an effort to draw California’s lines in their favor.

After months of wrangling in about a dozen states, the whole effort looks to end up close to a wash — after some Republicans tried to warn party leaders the heavy-handed effort could backfire.

A group of House Republicans from Florida privately discussed their concerns about the fallout of yet another redistricting push in their state, several Republicans confirmed — especially amid rising anxiety that Hispanic voters could be turning away from the GOP.

House GOP leaders mostly brushed off the Florida special elections in public comments Wednesday, arguing that low-turnout, off-cycle races shouldn’t be considered midterm bellwethers. But some suggested there are lessons to be learned from Tuesday’s results.

“Surely you look at those and see, are there things we can learn and improve upon when the big election comes?” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters Wednesday. “And obviously, November is the election that we are focused on.”

The top leaders of the House GOP’s campaign arm, Reps. Richard Hudson of North Carolina and Brian Jack of Georgia, both deferred to the state Legislature on redistricting in Florida Wednesday.

Hudson, the NRCC chair, said Florida’s growing population means redistricting “makes sense to do,” but he said he was more concerned about turnout and other factors.

Jack, the group’s deputy chair for recruiting, similarly talked up the candidates Republicans would be fielding in Florida and elsewhere. As for redistricting, he said, “I defer to the Legislature.”

“It’s up to them,” he said, “not up to us.”

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Congress

Arrington: Fraud cuts for war funding

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House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington is making clear he will push for the “fraud prevention” spending cuts he wants across state and social safety net programs in order to pay for any Iran war funding in a second GOP reconciliation bill.

The Texas Republican is meeting soon this afternoon with Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) in Graham’s office to discuss plans.

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