Congress
The 5 big questions about the Senate battleground map
The battle for the Senate won’t be decided for another year and a half. But the key questions that will determine who wins the upper chamber are beginning to come into focus.
For Democrats to flip the chamber, everything needs to go right. They have to net four seats, and a wave of retirements earlier this year is expected to make a handful of Democratic-held seats more competitive. There are also relatively few openings for the party to make pickups — only two of the 22 Republican seats up for reelection next year are in states President Donald Trump either lost or won by less than 10 points in 2024.
Yet Democratic leaders have projected confidence, fortified by the retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) shortly after he broke with Republicans over concerns about their signature legislative accomplishment.
Here are the five biggest questions still hanging over the Senate race:
Can Democrats get their dream recruits?
Democrats are holding their breath for Roy Cooper and Janet Mills to decide if they’ll run for Senate in North Carolina and Maine — a former and current governor, respectively, who could dramatically improve their party’s chances to flip those swing seats. Their outstanding decisions have frozen recruitment in both states, signaling the party’s strong preference for them.
The odds look better for Democrats in North Carolina, where Cooper’s top political strategist told POLITICO earlier this month that the former governor was “strongly considering a run” and “will decide in the coming weeks.” North Carolina Democrats have argued that Cooper’s aw-shucks brand coupled with his strong fundraising network would instantly transform the now-open race.
Tillis announced that he was not running for reelection last month after clashing with Trump over his tax-and-spend megabill. That “puts a lot more pressure on Cooper to run,” said Democratic state Sen. Jay Chaudhuri, as he is “heads and shoulders above every other candidate.”
But Cooper hasn’t cleared the field yet. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel entered the Senate primary in April, and he demurred when asked if he’d exit if Cooper jumped in. Rep. Don Davis is also eyeing the race.
Republicans have yet to see a major candidate step up, although the president’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump has expressed interest.
National Democrats are still working to woo Mills, but her interest in challenging Sen. Susan Collins is less clear. Mills, who is 77 and won reelection in 2022 by 13 percentage points, told a Maine outlet in April that “I’m not planning to run for another office” but added that “things change week to week, month to month.”
Jordan Wood, the former chief of staff to former California Rep. Katie Porter, has already raised $1 million in his bid against Collins. But some Maine Democrats are concerned that the race hasn’t yet attracted bigger name contenders.
Can a bloody Republican primary in Texas put the state on the map in November?
Republicans have a messy — and expensive — primary on their hands down in Texas.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune discussed the high-stakes intraparty brawl with Trump — as part of a broader discussion on the 2026 midterm map during a recent White House meeting — where state Attorney General Ken Paxton is primarying Sen. John Cornyn.
GOP leaders have been privately trying to sway Trump for months to back Cornyn, arguing that his conservative bona fides match the president’s agenda and he would be a safer bet in November.
Cornyn got a break after Paxton’s wife announced she was filing for divorce on “biblical grounds,” with his allies quickly seizing on the news. And he was able to get in some face time with Trump on Friday when he traveled with the president back to Texas.
But so far, Trump appears poised to remain on the sidelines for a while longer as polling has shown Cornyn consistently trailing Paxton in a primary. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is also mulling a Senate run, traveled with Trump on Friday as well.
Asked whether he was concerned about Cornyn’s standing, Thune told reporters Thursday, “We’re working on it.”
Democrats believe, and some Republicans fear, Paxton would be a weaker general candidate that could finally put the Lone Star State in play. Former Rep. Colin Allred is already in the race, but Democrats could face their own packed primary.
Who will Republicans run in Democratic-held battlegrounds?
Democrats have two super-competitive Senate seats to defend — and losing either could all but extinguish their dream of retaking control of the Senate.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp struck a blow to Republicans’ hopes of defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff when he passed on a Senate bid in May.
Now, Republicans face a potentially messy primary, as several potential candidates eye a bid to challenge Ossoff, who already has a $15 million head start in fundraising. Rep. Buddy Carter is already in, and other members of Congress are considering a run, including Rep. Rich McCormick and Rep. Mike Collins.
Kelly Loeffler, the former senator and current head of the Small Business Administration who lost to Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2020, wouldn’t rule out another Senate bid when asked earlier this year. Secretary of Veterans Affairs Doug Collins, who also ran in the state’s Senate primary in 2020, has also not ruled out a Senate bid.
One potential wild-card candidate has passed on running: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the controversial firebrand and close Trump ally.
Unlike in Georgia, Republicans have successfully recruited their top candidate in Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters made a surprise retirement announcement earlier this year. Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers decided to take another shot at winning an open Michigan Senate seat after he lost out to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year.
All eyes are now on Rep. Bill Huizenga, who is openly weighing a Senate run despite Republicans’ worries about a competitive Senate primary and the fate of his battleground House district.
Democrats are grappling with their own competitive primary in Michigan, as progressive former Michigan public health official Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Rep. Haley Stevens jockey for position.
New Hampshire is also an open-seat race in a Democratic-held state, but Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas starts as the favorite over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, both of whom appear for now to have a straight shot to the general election.
Is there even a fourth state for Democrats to capitalize on?
Democrats believe they’ll have strong national headwinds by next November, but they are still facing a difficult mathematical reality.
To flip the chamber, Democrats have to net four seats. But they have only two clear pick-up opportunities right now: North Carolina, especially if Republicans shift further to the right in their primary, and Maine.
Beyond that the map gets exponentially harder: Sen. Joni Ernst is mulling retiring in Iowa, which would give them an open race in a state where House districts are increasingly competitive. But some Democrats believe their chances would be better if Ernst was on the ballot, especially after she opened herself up for attacks by saying “we all are going to die” to an angry constituent concerned about potential Medicaid cuts.
Schumer recently had dinner with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is quietly mulling a comeback bid against Sen. Jon Husted, the Republican who was appointed to fill now-Vice President JD Vance’s seat. But many Democrats believe Brown is more likely to try to run for governor than return to his old stomping ground.
The pickings get slimmer elsewhere: Democrats will try again for their white whale of Texas, and Florida Democrats are desperate to show any signs of life in a one-time battleground that has become a dark shade of red.
In Nebraska, in-state Democrats are blessing, but not formally endorsing, independent candidate Dan Osborn’s second Senate bid, though Republicans are confident he won’t be able to catch them off guard after a close call last year.
Can Democrats weaponize Trump’s megabill successfully?
Democrats have spotted an opportunity to go on offense after Republicans passed their sweeping domestic-policy bill earlier this month. The bill polled unfavorably as it came together — particularly the cuts to Medicaid — even as significant percentages of voters across several surveys said they knew little about its contents.
“It’s going to raise insurance costs even if you don’t have Medicaid,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told The New York Times on Thursday about Democrats’ message on the megabill. “Your electricity costs will go up by 10 percent. Even not poor people, it goes across the board. And it’s hitting at the same time that your costs are going up because of tariffs.”
Some Republicans in Congress acknowledge they’re concerned about the political consequences of their landmark legislation.
“You would be foolish not to worry about it,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) told Blue Light News shortly after the bill passed. “If you don’t keep the voters right with you, you’re going to awaken to a bad, bad, bad day.”
The White House is pushing polling suggesting some parts of the bill — implementing work requirements for Medicaid recipients and eliminating taxes on tips — could be part of a winning message next year.
TV ads across the nation will soon help determine who was right.
Congress
Trump apparently shares Tom Cotton’s phone number in push to make Daylight Saving Time permanent
President Donald Trump appeared to share Sen. Tom Cotton’s phone number in a Saturday morning social media post imploring the Arkansas Republican to get behind a bill to make Daylight Saving Time permanent.
“Almost everybody wants “The Sunshine Protection Act” to pass, except for Tom Cotton,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “To the Great People of Arkansas, please let your Senator know it would be a GREAT Bipartisan WIN for the United States Senate, and for America, itself.”
The president has spent months personally pushing Senate Republicans to end the practice that sees Americans change their clocks twice a year, cementing more sunlight hours in the evening for all twelve months of the calendar. Cotton, whom Trump called “a friend of mine” in the Saturday post, has long argued that making daylight saving time permanent would leave children, farmers and other early risers in the dark for hours on winter mornings.
One of Trump’s key selling points on Saturday: the PGA tour.
“The PGA TOUR, as an example, needs more Daylight in the afternoon in order to finish their Tournaments,” he said, attaching a letter from PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp endorsing the bill. ”Likewise, regular Golfers, Tennis Players, Hunters and, perhaps most importantly, Farmers who want more Daylight to play or work.
A Blue Light News call to the cellphone number went to voicemail. A spokesperson for Cotton did not respond to a request for comment. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The current version of the bill was introduced in the House in January 2025 by Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), with Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) leading the Senate version. The legislation would make daylight saving time permanent across most of the country, ending the twice-yearly clock changes. The legislation has been stalled in the Senate since July.
The president encouraged supporters of the bill, dubbed the “The Sunshine Protection Act,” to call Cotton to “let your Senator know it would be a GREAT Bipartisan WIN for the United States Senate, and for America, itself.”
During the 2016 Republican presidential primary, he publicly gave out the personal cellphone number of then-rival Sen. Lindsey Graham after the South Carolina Republican criticized him. Trump, who came to count on Graham as a reliable Senate ally after he won the presidency, revisited the moment during Graham’s funeral in July, acknowledging that sharing the number was something he “shouldn’t have done.”
Kelsey Brugger contributed to this report.
Sen. Bernie Sanders will hit the road for Troy Jackson in Maine starting Oct. 10, the first time the progressive leader will stump for the candidate this cycle.
The Vermont independent plans to hold three rallies with Jackson, according to an itinerary shared first with Blue Light News: first in Bangor on Oct. 10th followed by Lewiston and Biddeford on Oct. 11.
The Maine swing will kick off Sanders’ travel for the final stretch of the midterms, covering ground throughout October for House and Senate candidates, POLITICO reported.
“Bernie and Troy know that working people built this country and deserve a government that fights for them,” Jackson spokesperson Dan Gottlieb told Blue Light News. “Susan Collins has had nearly 30 years to deliver, and working Mainers are still getting squeezed while she serves the billionaires and corporate interests who bankroll her campaigns. Mainers don’t need another six years of excuses.”
Sanders campaigned ahead of major wins for progressives in the primary season, speaking at more than 60 rallies since last year’s Fight the Oligarchy tour and endorsing more than 90 candidates up and down the ballot.
He’s also opening his substantial $23 million campaign war chest, POLITICO reported, and contributing hundreds of thousands of dollars toMinnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s Senate campaign and others including Angie Nixon in Florida and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison,
Sanders will return to Maine after initially backing Graham Platner’s campaign for Senate. Allegations reported by POLITICO ultimately led him to call on the Democratic nominee to drop out of the race.
Sanders had not formally endorsed Jackson since he clinched the nomination from Platner, though he previously backed Jackson’s initial run for governor.
House Financial Services Chair French Hill said he has “no concerns” about winning back his Arkansas seat in the upcoming midterm elections, but the six-term House member acknowledged the political headwinds for his party.
“I consider the atmosphere a very tough political environment right now because of President [Donald] Trump’s lack of favorability at the top, and you know people are concerned about, as I say, what it’s like to live under an inflated economy the last four years,” Hill said in an interview.
Hill is in a solidly red district, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and said he is up against a “weaker candidate this time than I’ve had in past races.” Polling in the district, however, has shown a tighter race. The two polls done this year placed Democratic challenger Chris Jones ahead of Hill by a few percentage points. Any perceived polling victory for Jones is still well within the margin of error, and one of the polls had a Democratic sponsor.
Stephannie Lane Baker, a spokesperson for Jones, said that “of all the Republicans in Congress, the chairman of the Financial Services Committee doesn’t get to dodge responsibility for this economy. He’s in trouble, and he knows it.”
Additionally, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s PAC, Ready for the Fight, committed more than $1 million in television ads through the next five weeks for Jones’ race in Arkansas’s 2nd District, Jordan Abudayyeh, a spokesperson for the PAC confirmed. Overall Democratic spending on advertising for the race was just over $1 million, primarily made up by contributions from the Ready for the Fight PAC, with Republicans spending almost $2.7 million on ad buys, according to AdImpact, an advertising tracking service.
Hill said he has addressed affordability concerns “head on” this Congress.
“My work on housing, my work on the Price Stability Act, my work to try to reduce waste, fraud, and abuse, and drop the federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP,” Hill said. “All these things can contribute to a more affordable environment for people. So I’ve tried to make that a forefront of my campaign this year.”
Hill was a key architect of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, a bipartisan housing affordability bill that became law in July. The Price Stability Act, which is unlikely to become law this year, would narrow the Federal Reserve’s current dual mandate of pursuing maximum employment and price stability to focus exclusively on containing inflation.
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