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Republicans just cut Medicaid. Will it cost them control of Congress?

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Republicans just delivered Donald Trump a “big, beautiful” legislative win. Now they’re fretting it will lead to some ugly electoral losses.

GOP lawmakers are warning that slashing spending on Medicaid and food assistance will cost the party seats in the midterms — threatening their razor-thin House majority — by kicking millions of Americans off safety-net programs.

“You would be foolish not to worry about it,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) said in a brief interview. “If you don’t keep the voters right with you, you’re going to awaken to a bad, bad, bad day.”

Justice voted for the megabill last week, despite his concerns over some of its Medicaid provisions — and after warning Republicans “cannot cut into the bone.” Steep cuts, he said, would cost the GOP voters and lead the party to “awaken to [being in the] minority.”

Republicans have already lost one of their most vulnerable senators over the bill: North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, who privately told his colleagues he would lose his seat over Medicaid cuts before announcing his retirement and publicly torching the public-health overhaul on the Senate floor. Another vulnerable GOP senator, Susan Collins of Maine, opposed it over the “harmful impact” Medicaid cuts would have on low-income families and rural health care providers.

“When you don’t get health care right, it tends to have probably an outsized impact on politics,” Tillis said in a brief interview ahead of the Senate’s vote. He warned his party that slashing Medicaid could become a political albatross, like the Affordable Care Act was for Democrats during Barack Obama’s presidency.

The final bill, passed by the House Thursday, delivered a $1 trillion-plus cut to health care programs and could lead to an estimated 11.8 million people losing their insurance.

House Speaker Mike Johnson privately cautioned that the deeper cuts the Senate passed could cost him his slim majority next year, though he ultimately whipped his members to support the changes. Several Republicans said the cuts would make the bill a tougher sell to their voters.

Adding to the GOP angst: Democrats are preparing to weaponize the bill as they did Republicans’ failed efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017. That 2018 midterm election led to a GOP wipeout in the House, with the party losing 40 seats, including some districts in Trump-leaning territory. Democrats are planning to again hitch vulnerable Republicans to the cuts to social safety-net programs.

“I could have defended the House bill every day,” said GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who had raised concerns over cuts to food aid and announced he would retire from his Nebraska swing seat as the Senate prepared to deepen the cuts in the House bill.

“The other side is going to use Medicaid as an issue,” he said, even as he voted for the megabill. “And I think the Senate [version of the bill] gives them a little more leverage to do so.”

Republicans are walking a tightrope as they return to their districts to start selling the sweeping policy package. They’re going to lean into the megabill’s popular provisions, like eliminating taxes on tips, while trying to escape unpopular reductions to safety-net programs. The final bill slashes spending by $1.7 trillion.

Voters broadly dislike the megabill; some recent polling shows a 2-to-1 margin of disapproval, according to surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University, The Washington Post, Pew Research and Fox News. Nearly half of voters want more federal funding for Medicaid, while just 10 percent want less, according to Quinnipiac.

“What we know from past elections is that messing with people’s healthcare coverage is very problematic for politicians. And it has, in the past, yielded some very, very negative views about the people who supported it,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Meanwhile Democrats are rushing to capitalize on the controversy and plan to make it a centerpiece of their midterm messaging.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke on the floor for eight hours and 45 minutes, reading letters from constituents of vulnerable GOP lawmakers who could lose access to both programs. Democratic candidates followed up with post-vote statements blasting the Republicans they’re looking to unseat for effectively kicking people in their districts off their health care plans.

Their campaign arms and allied super PACs have already released several rounds of ads hammering vulnerable Republicans and say they plan to keep up the pace.

Republicans are trying to figure out how to fight back.

Their early salvos have focused on painting Democrats as supportive of tax hikes since they opposed a bill that would extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and eliminate federal taxes on tips and overtime. Republicans also argue they’re protecting the “most vulnerable” Medicaid recipients by removing undocumented immigrants and others they say shouldn’t have access to the program anyway.

But in a tacit acknowledgment of the potential electoral fallout, some Republicans have pledged to try to reverse provisions such as the provider tax drawdown before they take effect in 2028.

“To the extent that there’s reform, and … you can legitimately argue it’s the waste, fraud, abuse, that’s a good position to be in,” said Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho). “If it’s just strictly a situation where you say, ‘We’re just cutting and spending’ and it’s not cognizant as to how and where, that’s where we get into trouble.”

Another potential security blanket for the GOP: Many Americans at risk of steep Medicaid cuts reside in deep-red swaths of the country that are unlikely to turn blue next year. But there are also high percentages of Medicaid enrollees in some GOP-held swing districts Democrats are itching to flip.

The Senate’s harsher Medicaid language prompted Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) to vote against the megabill, putting him in the company of deficit hawk Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). Fitzpatrick, in a statement, said the Senate’s changes “fell short” of protecting constituents in his suburban Philadelphia district that has more than 100,000 enrollees.

Another top Democratic target, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), voted in favor of the bill despite expressing “several concerns” with the stricter limits on provider taxes and state-directed payments that he unsuccessfully lobbied Senate Majority Leader John Thune not to include.

Valadao lost his seat in Democrats’ health-care-fueled 2018 wave, when liberal groups successfully yoked him to GOP efforts to overturn the Affordable Care Act, and won it back in 2020. Now those groups are running the same playbook in his Central Valley district that enrolls nearly two-thirds of his constituents in Medicaid — the highest percentage in the GOP conference.

Valadao, who fought for months to rein in some of the changes to the program, sought to justify his vote in a statement Thursday by arguing “it does preserve the Medicaid program for its intended recipients” and includes a $50 billion stabilization fund to offset harm to rural hospitals.

New York Rep. Mike Lawler, whose lower-Hudson Valley district has more than 200,000 people enrolled in Medicaid, said in a brief interview that he “fought extensively to make sure that there were not draconian changes to Medicaid” and that lawmakers will have time to address some of the others before they take effect.

“At the end of the day, this is about strengthening the program,” he said. As for electoral consequences: “You just tell people what’s actually in the bill, as opposed to what the Democrats have been trying to fearmonger on.”

But Democrats are confident that “putting shine on a turd” will not work, said Ian Russell, a consultant who served as the political director of Democrats’ House campaign arm in 2014 and 2016.

“Republicans are running back their 2018 playbook,” said CJ Warnke, communications director for House Majority PAC, the Democratic leadership-aligned super PAC. “And it’s once again going to cost them the majority.”

Samuel Benson, Cassandra Dumay, Melanie Mason, Nicholas Wu and Holly Otterbein contributed to this report.

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Congress

Why Democrats’ New York gerrymander won’t be as aggressive as the GOP’s efforts

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ALBANY, New York — With Democrats’ national redistricting calculus now in disarray over Friday’s court order blocking new Virginia maps, party leaders are looking to New York as a prime opportunity to keep pace with Republicans.

But as top Democrats in the Empire State move ahead with their attempt to redraw lines in 2028, they’re also far more likely to pull their punches in the ongoing gerrymandering wars.

The Supreme Court’s decision last week to end a key provision of the Voting Rights Act allows states to break up districts previously drawn to accommodate minority voters. Republicans in states like Alabama and Tennessee are rushing to take advantage by dissolving majority Black districts. In New York — the state where Democrats have the most to gain by drawing new lines — there’s virtually no appetite to respond in kind, underscoring a looming barrier for blue states in the redistricting fight.

“People were walking across bridges and being mauled, and have lost their lives for these rights,” New York Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said of the VRA. “These laws are there because there has been a real effort to disenfranchise certain people, certainly Black people, from being able to vote. So we want to protect that.”

In the coming weeks, New York lawmakers are expected to begin the lengthy process of approving a constitutional amendment that would let them redraw congressional lines in 2028. If successful, the measure stands to turn a state with 19 Democrats and seven Republicans into one with a 22-4 or 23-3 edge.

Such an outcome is akin to what Republicans pushed through in Texas last summer — but not as extreme as the 9-0 Republican map Tennessee lawmakers drew Thursday by eliminating a Black majority district in Memphis.

In New York, a 26-0 map isn’t plausible. But in a deep blue state where Democrats routinely receive around 60 percent of the vote in statewide races, maps that feature tendrils extending from the Bronx and Brooklyn into the furthest regions of upstate and Long Island are possible. And such a reconfiguration would give Democrats an even greater advantage compared with maps they’ve floated in the not so distant past.

Doing that would require eliminating districts that were protected by the VRA until last week. Those districts include the Brooklyn seat held by House Minority Hakeem Jeffries, who said last month that Democrats need to “fight back with every tool available.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also emphasized the urgency Democrats are feeling Friday at an event honoring Rep. Jan Schakowsky in Chicago, stressing that the court order blocking new maps in Virginia “puts responsibility — even greater responsibility — to those of us in this room, specifically in New York and in the state of Illinois.”

“We have power here in this room to help balance the scale, and we are now in a national fight in order to do that,” she said. “The decisions we make on the city level, the state level and on the federal level, with our representation is part of a much larger story.”

In practice, though, New York’s Democratic leaders do not appear inclined, at the moment at least, to similarly weaponize the newfound ability to disempower Black voters.

“I don’t think we want to roll back protections for minority communities in New York,” said Senate Deputy Leader Mike Gianaris, who’s led his conference’s redistricting efforts since 2012.

The fact that keeping these districts intact is a core personal political belief for leaders like Stewart-Cousins — and a political third rail for everyone in the state’s Democratic Party — will likely limit how aggressive Democrats approach redistricting.

Consider the electoral math on Long Island, where two Democrats and two Republicans now occupy House seats. Maps floated before the 2022 redistricting process would have squeezed many Republicans into just one district, giving Democrats a narrow edge in three.

Expanding that to a 4-0 advantage would require completely ignoring political and demographic boundaries. And states now have the authority to do that under the Supreme Court’s recent decision. Picture a scenario where Democrats slice up blue districts in Brooklyn and Queens and merge them with the purple and red ones to the city’s east — a serpentine seat joining Bedford-Stuyvesant with the Hamptons, for example.

Drawing lines like that isn’t possible, though, without turning historically Black strongholds like those represented by Jeffries and Reps. Yvette Clark and Gregory Meeks into districts with white majorities — or eliminating the Asian plurality in Rep. Grace Meng’s district, or the Hispanic majority in Ocasio-Cortez’s seat. And doing that is almost certain to draw intense pushback from organizations whose support is needed to win approval for the planned 2027 redistricting referendum.

“It’s really, really important that we are at the table from the beginning of this process so that the parties, as they start to course correct, are not overcorrecting,” said L. Joy Williams, the NAACP New York State Conference’s president.

“Voter disenfranchisement doesn’t require malicious intent,” she continued. “In people’s pursuit of political power, if they are doing it at the expense of voters, that’s a problem, and your course correction could inadvertently disenfranchise more people.”

The first occupant of Clarke’s Brooklyn district was former Rep. Shirley Chisholm, after the seat was created in 1966 through the VRA. That district, and the desire to protect its legacy, drew more attention than any in the state during public hearings before the 2022 redistricting — underscoring how much blowback there would be to splintering it in an attempt to boost Democratic odds in Suffolk County.

But it’s far from the only seat in New York that was kept safe due to the VRA.

As Democrats revisited the maps in 2024, the easiest gerrymander in the state would have been blending the seat then held by former Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman with the neighboring one held by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. Doing so would have paved the way to transforming districts with a 29-point Democratic edge and a 1-point Republican edge, respectively, into two districts with 14-point Democratic advantages.

There were concerns about drastic changes to Bowman’s map, though. Overhauling a district where 60 percent of the residents are minorities could have led to a legal challenge under the VRA. And while that’s no longer the case, Democrats still appear inclined to resist aggressively splitting that seat.

“We believe in democracy,” said Stewart-Cousins. “We’re very concerned that we are in a place where not only do we need to defend against the radical remaking of how we do democracy, but that we’re actually defending the very existence of democracy in a multiracial society.”

—Shia Kapos contributed reporting

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Republicans clash over policy wishlist as they seek to boost their midterm message

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With six months before the midterm elections, many congressional Republicans are hoping they’re not done legislating yet.

A party-line bill funding immigration enforcement and White House security measures is now on a path to passage. But many in the GOP are already making a wishlist for yet another bill they want to pass under the fast-track budget reconciliation process.

The imperatives, they say, are clear: Their party needs to do more to address cost-of-living matters before voters go to the polls in the fall.

“The American people universally want us to do more than what we’ve already done,” Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) said in an interview.

Affordability, he added, “is the No. 1 issue that people are dealing with right now.”

It won’t be that easy. Not only are there different perspectives in the GOP over how to address high prices, the discussion over party-line legislation is tied up with a host of unrelated issues that could easily derail the delicate reconciliation process.

Those include funding for the ongoing war in Iran, tackling social service spending and a controversial elections bill that has stalled in the Senate — all of which have been subject of intraparty clashes this year.

While doubts have long persisted about the ability of the GOP’s thin House and Senate majorities to pass a followup to last year’s “big, beautiful bill,” the progress on the immigration enforcement bill has raised expectations that a third bite at the apple might be possible.

But nothing has motivated GOP lawmakers like the prospect of going into campaign season without having a robust agenda to run on — especially with the Iran conflict pushing fuel prices up about 50 percent in recent months.

Rep. John Rutherford (R-Fla.) said he doesn’t want the war “to sideline us because of the fuel prices back here in America,” adding that “we’ve got to move quickly.”

“If we can get these affordability things fixed,” he said, “the American public will keep us in the majority.”

Here are five major areas of active GOP discussions:

Affordability sweeteners

If Republicans can agree on anything, it’s centering any additional reconciliation bill on addressing cost-of-living concerns. If the legislation comes together, it will likely be a grab-bag affair.

With a bipartisan housing bill stalled out for now, GOP lawmakers are discussing incorporating components of that measure into the party-line package that would benefit first-time home buyers, according to four people granted anonymity to share details of private conversations.

Members are also discussing allowing “portable mortgages” and other ideas aimed at addressing borrowing rates — something a top Trump pollster told Republicans to focus on as far back as December.

Many Republicans are also eager to address rising health care costs, even if the topic stands to prompt fierce GOP infighting.

“Health care reform should be a part” of any new bill, Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) said in an interview. “That’s another thing that’s driving costs.”

While Republicans allowed enhanced Obamacare tax credits to expire last year and are highly unlikely to revive them, Wittman said other smaller-bore GOP policy ideas in the health care space could make it into law.

A ‘fraud’ crackdown

The most sweeping and controversial piece of the GOP reconciliation push surrounds an effort to root out alleged fraud in social service programs that many conservatives claim could amount to tens of billions of dollars.

House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) is cheerleading for the crackdown, which would focus on programs administered by states. Arrington is also eyeing some Obamacare cuts aimed at making the program more “efficient.”

An effort to roll back Medicaid and food-aid spending generated huge internal problems during last year’s megabill debate, but Arrington said the GOP could not skip a chance to crack down on wasteful spending.

“It’s all over the people’s government, and we’ve got to do what we did in SNAP and Medicaid, and make sure that the tax dollars are flowing to the people who need them — to American citizens who depend on these programs,” he said.

But there is wariness among more vulnerable Republican members who could be subject to a barrage of campaign attacks about safety-net cuts.

“Don’t mix a lot of other stuff in there that could put members in a precarious position back home,” Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) said in an interview, calling for a “very narrow” bill instead.

Iran war money

With Democrats unlikely to consent to any war funding, especially with hostilities unresolved, many Republicans want to add tens of billions of military dollars to a reconciliation bill to prevent a Senate filibuster.

Arrington, a fiscal hawk, said he expected Republicans to include “around $100 billion” to replenish military munitions amid the Iran conflict, along with additional defense funding.

“And then I think probably everything north of that is, how do we make our military more nimble, more effective, and how do we plan for deterrence and readiness in the future?” he added.

A larger Pentagon package could get more Republicans on board, but it would also force them to scramble for steep spending cuts to pay for it. A handful of at-risk Republicans are nervous about that idea, with some floating a separate package with new Ukraine aid as a way to entice some Democrats.

More tax cuts

The megabill was centered on massive tax cuts, and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) is not about to pass up another chance to do more.

Some GOP lawmakers, including Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, are eyeing a cut on capital gains taxes by allowing taxpayers to adjust those gains for inflation.

Smith and Arrington, along with other committee chairs and senior Republicans, tried unsuccessfully to press Speaker Mike Johnson to expand the scope of the pending immigration enforcement bill to include tax cuts and other policies.

“Opening the tax code should be part of this exercise,” Arrington said.

Parts of SAVE America Act

With the elections bill known as the SAVE America Act stalled in the Senate for the foreseeable future, some Republicans want pieces of the legislation to be included in a third reconciliation package.

Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said he plans to draft a fiscal blueprint for what’s being touted as “Reconciliation 3.0” with those pieces in mind. House Administration Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) has also circulated a list of election integrity proposals that could be added to another party-line bill.

But the conservative hard-liners who are pushing for the SAVE America Act are highly skeptical that any meaningful provision of that bill could survive the strict Senate budgetary rules governing what can be included in a reconciliation bill.

They instead want the Senate to take up the elections measure as is — even if it means discarding the filibuster.

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Lutnick admits to having prolonged ties to Epstein in closed-door interview

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For reasons he said were “inexplicable,” Howard Lutnick acknowledged visiting Jeffrey Epstein’s island seven years after he claimed to have severed his relationship with the convicted sex offender, according to lawmakers present for the Commerce Secretary’s closed-door testimony Wednesday.

The acknowledgment, however, did not satisfy Democrats on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee participating in Wednesday’s interview with Lutnick as part of the panel’s ongoing investigation into Epstein’s crimes and the powerful people in his orbit.

“He was evasive, nervous — he was dishonest,” Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.) told reporters during a break in the hourslong proceedings. “He would not admit to lying, which he clearly did.”

In an interview, Rep. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.) further suggested that if her party retook the House majority, Democrats could call Lutnick back in for additional questioning in a public hearing — or, at the very least, testify under oath on video.

“They deserve to see the sweat on the secretary’s brow as he struggles to answer basic questions about his lies to the American people,” said Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-Va.).

Lutnick appeared before lawmakers Wednesday for a transcribed interview, not a deposition, meaning he did not need to take an oath of honesty and the proceedings were not recorded on video.

Still, House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) warned, “If we find that there were any misstatements by Lutnick, it’s a felony to lie to Congress, and you’ll be held accountable.”

Comer also defended his decision not to require Lutnick’s interview be videotaped, saying the panel would release a transcript to the public and it will be up to the American people to “judge whether [Lutnick’s] credibility was damaged or not.”

Lutnick has not been accused of any wrongdoing in connection with Epstein’s crimes. But he has been under scrutiny from members of both parties since federal materials in the Epstein matter revealed the longtime Cantor Fitzgerald CEO visited Epstein’s now-infamous retreat in the U.S. Virgin Islands in 2012. He had originally said he broke ties with Epstein in 2005.

But the stakes are high for Lutnick — the first Cabinet secretary to testify before the Oversight Committee with a congressional majority of the same party in recent history, according to Comer. Prior administration officials were ousted by President Donald Trump soon after politically damaging appearances before lawmakers on Capitol Hill — notably Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

Even the Kentucky Republican acknowledged to reporters before the interview Wednesday that Lutnick “wasn’t 100 percent truthful” in the past when describing the timeline of his relationship with Epstein.

According to one person granted anonymity to describe the closed-door proceedings, Lutnick told the Oversight panel that he was neighbors with Epstein between 2005 and 2019.

Around the time that Lutnick and Epstein became neighbors, Lutnick and his wife met Epstein for a 10-to-15 minute coffee, during which time he received a tour of Epstein’s home and viewed a massage table that has become synonymous with Epstein’s sexual exploitation of trafficked women, the person added.

Lutnick told congressional investigators that he decided then he did not want to associate with Epstein. But Lutnick admitted he, his family, and friends had a short lunch in 2012 at Epstein’s island home, according to the person with knowledge of the interview. He recalled being unsettled that Epstein’s assistant had found out he was in the U.S. Virgin Islands to extend the invitation in the first place.

Committee Democrats told reporters that Lutnick ultimately could not explain why he went to Epstein’s island, with Ansari saying the Cabinet official described the decision as “inexplicable” and that their interactions were “meaningless” and “inconsequential.”

Lutnick also said he and Epstein met in 2011 to discuss renovations on Epstein’s home in Manhattan and that he never saw Epstein engage in inappropriate conduct with young women, the person familiar with the interview said.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said that Lutnick admitted to conferring with the administration about the Epstein saga. But, Walkinshaw said, Lutnick would not answer questions about whether he spoke with Trump in advance of his testimony Wednesday.

A Commerce spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Comer and Rep. William Timmons of South Carolina were the only Republicans present for the testimony Wednesday. But Comer disputed the accusation he was intentionally scheduling interviews with high-profile witnesses like Lutnick during congressional recess weeks or session days where most members fly back to their districts.

He also did not rule out videotaping the committee’s upcoming interview with Bondi, whose testimony was subpoenaed prior to her removal from office. She is scheduled to appear before the panel on May 29.

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