Congress

Republicans just cut Medicaid. Will it cost them control of Congress?

Published

1 year ago

July 6, 2025

Republicans just delivered Donald Trump a “big, beautiful” legislative win. Now they’re fretting it will lead to some ugly electoral losses.

GOP lawmakers are warning that slashing spending on Medicaid and food assistance will cost the party seats in the midterms — threatening their razor-thin House majority — by kicking millions of Americans off safety-net programs.

“You would be foolish not to worry about it,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) said in a brief interview. “If you don’t keep the voters right with you, you’re going to awaken to a bad, bad, bad day.”

Justice voted for the megabill last week, despite his concerns over some of its Medicaid provisions — and after warning Republicans “cannot cut into the bone.” Steep cuts, he said, would cost the GOP voters and lead the party to “awaken to [being in the] minority.”

Republicans have already lost one of their most vulnerable senators over the bill: North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, who privately told his colleagues he would lose his seat over Medicaid cuts before announcing his retirement and publicly torching the public-health overhaul on the Senate floor. Another vulnerable GOP senator, Susan Collins of Maine, opposed it over the “harmful impact” Medicaid cuts would have on low-income families and rural health care providers.

“When you don’t get health care right, it tends to have probably an outsized impact on politics,” Tillis said in a brief interview ahead of the Senate’s vote. He warned his party that slashing Medicaid could become a political albatross, like the Affordable Care Act was for Democrats during Barack Obama’s presidency.

The final bill, passed by the House Thursday, delivered a $1 trillion-plus cut to health care programs and could lead to an estimated 11.8 million people losing their insurance.

House Speaker Mike Johnson privately cautioned that the deeper cuts the Senate passed could cost him his slim majority next year, though he ultimately whipped his members to support the changes. Several Republicans said the cuts would make the bill a tougher sell to their voters.

Adding to the GOP angst: Democrats are preparing to weaponize the bill as they did Republicans’ failed efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017. That 2018 midterm election led to a GOP wipeout in the House, with the party losing 40 seats, including some districts in Trump-leaning territory. Democrats are planning to again hitch vulnerable Republicans to the cuts to social safety-net programs.

“I could have defended the House bill every day,” said GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who had raised concerns over cuts to food aid and announced he would retire from his Nebraska swing seat as the Senate prepared to deepen the cuts in the House bill.

“The other side is going to use Medicaid as an issue,” he said, even as he voted for the megabill. “And I think the Senate [version of the bill] gives them a little more leverage to do so.”

Republicans are walking a tightrope as they return to their districts to start selling the sweeping policy package. They’re going to lean into the megabill’s popular provisions, like eliminating taxes on tips, while trying to escape unpopular reductions to safety-net programs. The final bill slashes spending by $1.7 trillion.

Voters broadly dislike the megabill; some recent polling shows a 2-to-1 margin of disapproval, according to surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University, The Washington Post, Pew Research and Fox News. Nearly half of voters want more federal funding for Medicaid, while just 10 percent want less, according to Quinnipiac.

“What we know from past elections is that messing with people’s healthcare coverage is very problematic for politicians. And it has, in the past, yielded some very, very negative views about the people who supported it,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Meanwhile Democrats are rushing to capitalize on the controversy and plan to make it a centerpiece of their midterm messaging.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke on the floor for eight hours and 45 minutes, reading letters from constituents of vulnerable GOP lawmakers who could lose access to both programs. Democratic candidates followed up with post-vote statements blasting the Republicans they’re looking to unseat for effectively kicking people in their districts off their health care plans.

Their campaign arms and allied super PACs have already released several rounds of ads hammering vulnerable Republicans and say they plan to keep up the pace.

Republicans are trying to figure out how to fight back.

Their early salvos have focused on painting Democrats as supportive of tax hikes since they opposed a bill that would extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and eliminate federal taxes on tips and overtime. Republicans also argue they’re protecting the “most vulnerable” Medicaid recipients by removing undocumented immigrants and others they say shouldn’t have access to the program anyway.

But in a tacit acknowledgment of the potential electoral fallout, some Republicans have pledged to try to reverse provisions such as the provider tax drawdown before they take effect in 2028.

“To the extent that there’s reform, and … you can legitimately argue it’s the waste, fraud, abuse, that’s a good position to be in,” said Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho). “If it’s just strictly a situation where you say, ‘We’re just cutting and spending’ and it’s not cognizant as to how and where, that’s where we get into trouble.”

Another potential security blanket for the GOP: Many Americans at risk of steep Medicaid cuts reside in deep-red swaths of the country that are unlikely to turn blue next year. But there are also high percentages of Medicaid enrollees in some GOP-held swing districts Democrats are itching to flip.

The Senate’s harsher Medicaid language prompted Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) to vote against the megabill, putting him in the company of deficit hawk Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). Fitzpatrick, in a statement, said the Senate’s changes “fell short” of protecting constituents in his suburban Philadelphia district that has more than 100,000 enrollees.

Another top Democratic target, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), voted in favor of the bill despite expressing “several concerns” with the stricter limits on provider taxes and state-directed payments that he unsuccessfully lobbied Senate Majority Leader John Thune not to include.

Valadao lost his seat in Democrats’ health-care-fueled 2018 wave, when liberal groups successfully yoked him to GOP efforts to overturn the Affordable Care Act, and won it back in 2020. Now those groups are running the same playbook in his Central Valley district that enrolls nearly two-thirds of his constituents in Medicaid — the highest percentage in the GOP conference.

Valadao, who fought for months to rein in some of the changes to the program, sought to justify his vote in a statement Thursday by arguing “it does preserve the Medicaid program for its intended recipients” and includes a $50 billion stabilization fund to offset harm to rural hospitals.

New York Rep. Mike Lawler, whose lower-Hudson Valley district has more than 200,000 people enrolled in Medicaid, said in a brief interview that he “fought extensively to make sure that there were not draconian changes to Medicaid” and that lawmakers will have time to address some of the others before they take effect.

“At the end of the day, this is about strengthening the program,” he said. As for electoral consequences: “You just tell people what’s actually in the bill, as opposed to what the Democrats have been trying to fearmonger on.”

But Democrats are confident that “putting shine on a turd” will not work, said Ian Russell, a consultant who served as the political director of Democrats’ House campaign arm in 2014 and 2016.

“Republicans are running back their 2018 playbook,” said CJ Warnke, communications director for House Majority PAC, the Democratic leadership-aligned super PAC. “And it’s once again going to cost them the majority.”

Samuel Benson, Cassandra Dumay, Melanie Mason, Nicholas Wu and Holly Otterbein contributed to this report.

Congress

Senate-passed government funding bill gets warm House reception

Published

38 minutes ago

August 13, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

In a sign of momentum for efforts to punt government funding talks beyond the midterms, House Rules Chair Virginia Foxx predicted Thursday that a Senate-approved stopgap spending measure could pass in the House.

“I think it will pass on suspension,” the North Carolina Republican told reporters as she presided over a pro forma session of the House.

She was referring to an expedited procedure typically reserved for noncontroversial bills that require a two-thirds majority vote to secure passage — a workaround for House GOP leaders who might not be able to bring the measure up under a party-line procedural rule.

Before leaving for their extended recess this past weekend, senators passed a bill with overwhelming bipartisan support that would extend current government funding levels until Dec. 11, with some exceptions. It also included a provision that would block the Trump administration from finalizing — for the length of the stopgap — a controversial plan to put political appointees in charge of approving federal grants.

In contrast, the House passed a short-term funding measure before its own summer break that would put off larger government funding decisions until Dec. 4. Democrats largely opposed that bill, angry at Republicans for shutting them out of negotiations and not including legislative language to ensure funding would not go to certain immigration enforcement activities.

Foxx’s suggestion that House Republicans could ultimately eschew their original plan for the Senate’s offering could be foreshadowing an inevitable compromise between the two chambers as members of both parties are eager to spend as much time as possible in their districts leading up to the November elections — rather than being stuck in Washington at loggerheads.

The Senate measure, which incorporated the funding increases and authorizations the Trump administration requested, also has the White House’s explicit support.

But it’s not clear whether Speaker Mike Johnson would agree to put the Senate bill on the floor, under suspension or otherwise. A Johnson spokesperson did not say Thursday whether the speaker would advance the measure.

One top House Democrat signaled she would likely help get the Senate spending bill over the finish line: Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, the senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, called the measure “a welcome improvement” from the House’s product.

Congress

Capitol agenda: ‘No tax’ fever hits Congress

Published

4 hours ago

August 13, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Special tax carve-outs for everyday Americans are suddenly all the rage in Congress.

What began with President Donald Trump’s signature tax cuts has sprung copycats, with lawmakers from both sides of the aisle proposing breaks on virtually everything — from boat loan interest to selling New Jersey swag.

“Must be an election year,” Rep. David Schweikert, a retiring tax writer.

It’s all part of lawmakers’ push to show they’re responding to voters’ affordability concerns ahead of the midterms, despite the mixed reviews for last year’s GOP tax cuts — even from Trump supporters.

The slew of targeted tax break proposals are modeled and named after some of the best known provisions of Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, with titles like “No Taxes on Utility Bills” and “No Tax on Health Care.”

Still, they’ve spurred frustrations from some conservatives over clogging the tax code with smaller, specific changes, while progressives worry the breaks eat into funding dollars they’d like to see go elsewhere. And fiscal hawks have sounded off on concerns over shrinking the tax base while the U.S. has a sky-high deficit.

None of this is set to go away anytime soon, tax experts say, as provisions from the megabill are poised to expire in 2028. That leaves lawmakers with an opportunity to extend and create more special exemptions in addition to the tax breaks on tips, overtime, seniors and car-loan interest.

“These policies elicited eye rolls with Republicans while they were crafting the tax bill — these were just Trumpist favors they had to include before getting to the real tax cuts,” said Jessica Riedl, a former Republican tax aide now at Brookings Institution. “Over time, Republicans have increasingly embraced this kind of stuff. I don’t think this is a temporary trend.”

Plus, for Democrats, there’s the exemptions that possible 2028 hopefuls have been looking to enact, from Sen. Jon Ossoff’s proposal to temporarily allow farmers to shield crop payments from taxes to Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s plan to strike everyone earning less than $46,000 from paying federal income taxes.

And both parties recognize that allowing the breaks to lapse during a presidential election year could be a risky gambit.

“I don’t know what they think is going to happen,” said Bob Lord, a vice president at Patriotic Millionaires, a group of wealthy individuals who support higher taxes, who helped devise Van Hollen’s plan. “If they do away with no tax on tips, well, they can kiss the state of Nevada goodbye.”

What else we’re watching:

— FIRST IN IC: FLANAGAN TALKS SCHUMER, PANELS: Democratic Senate hopeful Peggy Flanagan — fresh off her primary victory in Minnesota Tuesday —said she’d pursue many of the same committee assignments as predecessor Sen. Tina Smith if elected. “This particular seat has a long track record of serving on the Indian Affairs Committee,” Flanagan, who would be the first Native American woman elected to the chamber, said, adding she “would look forward to serving on that committee and bringing my lived experience and work in strengthening tribal government relations to that table.” Flanagan also flagged Agriculture, Banking and Health, adding “there are a lot of priorities for Minnesotans that go right through that committee.” Flanagan also declined to back Chuck Schumer as the party’s leader should Democrats retake the chamber, saying she was “grateful” for his work but, “I think it’s time for us to have a new voice in that role.”

— REPUBLICANS TRY TO KEEP THEIR FRAUD FIGHTING DREAMS ALIVE: House Republicans are hoping Vice President JD Vance’s personal appeal to the conference to tackle alleged abuse of safety-net programs will push the issue back to the forefront of the GOP’s already-long priority list. But many are skeptical any such legislation will ultimately reach the president’s desk. Finding ways to cut government waste and fraud across Medicare, Medicaid and federal food assistance programs was a top priority for House Republicans, who set out earlier this year to pass another party-line reconciliation package centralizing the effort. Many believed the fraud issue would speak to voters’ larger concerns about affordability, since it would ostensibly involve returning lost funds to government programs.

Brian Faler, Mia McCarthy and Robert King contributed to this report.

Congress

Cory Mills hopes Trump boost will overcome Ethics headlines in Florida primary

Published

7 hours ago

August 13, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Rep. Cory Mills, under investigation by the House and shunned by some of his GOP colleagues in Congress, heads into a primary next week hoping a months-old endorsement from President Donald Trump will outweigh negative headlines and weak fundraising

Mills has remained adamant that he has done nothing wrong amid a long line of incidents — including a restraining order placed on him at the request of a former girlfriend — and has defied calls from other Republicans to step down from his central Florida congressional seat. He has compared his own legal woes to Trump’s, even as some media outlets have reported he has come under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice.

“I’m the only person who sits on this stage today who has been endorsed three times by President Donald J. Trump,” Mills said last week at a primary debate in New Smyrna Beach. “I’m going to continue to fight for the American people, and that’s not what the swamp wants. But I can tell you right now, I’ve never cared about what the swamp wants or what the swamp needs.”

Mills’ bid to hang onto the state’s 7th District is just the latest race in a summer replete with members’ Ethics concerns hanging over their campaigns. The House Ethics panel derailed GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards’ reelection campaign last week after recommending censure for inappropriate behavior with female staffers. And Rep. Max Miller, an Ohio Republican, is officially on the ballot this fall after pressure campaigns failed to push him out amid domestic abuse allegations that he denies.

But if Mills fends off his three Republican primary challengers, his seat will likely become the top target for Florida Democrats. He has seen his fundraising efforts stagger, and his latest federal campaign reports show that he has less than $70,000 in his campaign account.

Republicans are trying to pick up as many as four seats in the state following a mid-decade redistricting push by Gov. Ron DeSantis that reshaped districts held by Democratic incumbents. Mills’ district did not change under that new map; Trump carried it by more than 12 points in 2024, but only won it by about 5.5 points four years earlier.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already targeted the seat and has lined up behind Bale Dalton, a military veteran who also worked as chief of staff for Bill Nelson when Nelson led NASA.

Mills, who is seeking a third term in Congress, is currently under investigation by the House Ethics Committee into whether he benefited from contracts from the federal government. In February, Washington police investigated whether he assaulted a former girlfriend. Lindsey Langston, a former Miss United States and Republican state committee member from north Florida, accused him of threatening to release sexually explicit videos when asked for a restraining order. There have been calls to censure or even expel Mills from other members of Congress.

Trump gave Mills his “complete and total endorsement” last February, and Mills has leaned into that endorsement in his campaign messaging to voters, including a new television ad the campaign has cut. (It’s not clear when that ad will air. Mills does not have any pending ad buys, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.)

Trump last week and on Tuesday evening posted repeated endorsements on his Truth Social account in several other Florida contests including governor. But he did not include one for Mills.

The three GOP challengers seeking to oust Mills have contended that he has lost trust among Republican voters and other GOP elected officials.

Ryan Elijah, a former local television anchor who has led primary opponents in fundraising, has warned GOP voters that backing Mills will result in Democrats flipping the seat in November.

“We have a member of Congress who is on the verge of getting kicked out, and that’s what you need to understand,” Elijah said at last week’s debate. “We’re all conservatives here. But if you look the other way, we are going to get a huge surprise in November.”

Elijah, who waved a copy of the since-expired restraining order at Mills during last week’s debate, told Blue Light News that he got into the race because of Mills and his “reputation” that has alienated other Republicans.

“We’re not running against the president, we’re not running against the party,” he said this week.

Elijah’s bid to knock off Mills has picked up support from central Florida sheriffs as well as GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos. Luna previously told POLITICO she thought Mills should have resigned from Congress.

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd, a law enforcement officer well-known in the region who routinely gets statewide attention, ripped into Mills this past week as a “liar” even though Florida’s 7th does not include that county. Judd was upset Mills listed him as a supporter on his website because the sheriff endorsed him in a previous run.

Others challenging Mills have leaned into other allegations against him as well. Michael Don Johnson, an Army veteran who also worked for the Pentagon and ran against Mills two years ago, has criticized Mills over his personal life as well as reports alleging inconsistencies regarding his military record. Mills has sharply denied that he has misrepresented his service in order to receive awards he didn’t deserve.

At last week’s debate, Johnson pushed back against Republicans upset with his criticisms of Mills and said they had “warped minds.”

“I’m sorry that you folks like lies and falsehoods, you need to go to talk to your preacher,” Johnson said. “I’m telling the truth, and I’ve been doing it all my life. And defending this man for all the things he’s lied about over his years in Congress is despicable. It’s disgusting.”