The Dictatorship

The Iran war’s unexpected victims: American farmers

Published

1 month ago

May 8, 2026

May. 8, 2026, 12:29 PM EDT

John Bartman knows the challenges of being a farmer. His family has been tilling Illinois soil since James K. Polk sat in the Oval Office, weathering droughts, trade disputes, market crashes and a Civil War in the process.

But now, with Donald Trump behind the Resolute Desk, fertilizer shipments have been halted through the Strait of Hormuz — a choke point for roughly one-third of the world’s fertilizer supply — and the resulting price spike is causing Bartman’s profits to disappear.

After years of turmoil for American farmers, “it’s just another straw that breaks the camel’s back,” Bartman said.

New data from the American Farm Bureau Federationan agricultural lobbying firm, warns that Bartman isn’t alone: Some 70% of American farmers may be unable to afford all the fertilizer their fields require.

It’s the latest in a series of economic headwinds that have slammed the U.S. agricultural industry over the past decade, causing farm bankruptcies to jump 46% from 2024 to 2025. The AFBF reported that this year 58% of its members said their financial situation had worsened since early 2025, while just 6% reported improvement.

Map: Carson Elm-Picard / MS NOW; Source: American Farm Bureau Federation

“Many farms were broadly in a situation of net negative margins, where they’re losing money, and this just compounds the problem,” Shawn Arita, the associate director of North Dakota State University’s Agricultural Risk Policy Center, said of the fertilizer shortage. “It was a very difficult situation before March 1, and now it’s certainly a lot more challenging.”

The shortage has caused the price of fertilizer jump from around $400 per ton in January to more than $600 per ton this week, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The impact of those high prices won’t be felt evenly across the U.S. — only 19% of Southern farmers preordered fertilizer before the price increased, compared with 30% in the Northeast, 31% in the West and 67% in the Midwest, according to the AFBF.

Chart: Carson Elm-Picard / MS NOW; Source: American Farm Bureau Federation

Trump administration officials, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, have sought to downplay the severity of the inflation.

Rollins told Fox Business that “America has plenty of fertilizer” for its farmers, and Vance acknowledged the shortage but dismissed the conflict behind the inflation as “a little blip in the Middle East” during a speech on Tuesday. That same day, Rubio echoed Rollins’ claimsaying that it was only Iran’s fertilizer, not the United States’, that was stranded in the Persian Gulf.

While the U.S. is a major exporter of fertilizer globally, it still produces only about 9% of the global supply and remains a net importer of the good, according to the USDA, meaning that supply chain disruptions on the other side of the world still affect domestic market prices.

That could be why Rollins is now considering reviving a Biden-era initiative that pledged $900 million to funding the construction of new fertilizer plants in the U.S. That initiative, the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program, was eliminated during Trump’s second term “due to Presidential Executive Orders,” according to the USDA website.

Even if the initiative was resuscitated or the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, farmers would be paying inflated prices through 2027, even into 2028, Arita said. Rep. Don Bacon., R-Neb., a member of the House Agriculture Committee, told MS NOW that the Trump administration should “re-examine their tariff policies” to alleviate the strain on farmers, but did not comment on the effects of the Iran War.

Chart: Carson Elm-Picard / MS NOW; Source: American Farm Bureau Federation

Another committee member, Rep. April McClain Delaney, D-Md., said the high fertilizer prices are “reflective of a much larger crisis” caused by the Trump administration — one that has already hit her constituents.

“Farmers in my district are facing tough choices about whether they can afford to plant at all,” said Delaney, who represents Maryland’s largely rural 6th Congressional District. “This administration’s reckless actions and the flawed farm bill are failing our farmers.”

The House Agriculture Committee’s Republican leadership, Chairman Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania and Vice Chairman Austin Scott of Georgia, did not respond to requests for comment on this story.

Fertilizer inflation isn’t the only thing pushing up costs for farmers; diesel prices in the U.S. have jumped from about $3.80 at the start of the war to more than $5.60 as of May 4 , according to USDA data. That in turn has made it more expensive for all farmers to do business — even small growers like Leah Dannar-Garcia, an organic farmer in Wichita, Kansas, who doesn’t use synthetic fertilizer.

“Farms have been just hanging on with the soybean debacle last year,” Dannar-Garcia said, referring to the Trump administration’s $20 billion bailout of Argentinawhich spurred China to reduce its U.S. agricultural imports. “It’s had a devastating effect.”

As a soybean farmer, Bartman was particularly affected by that decision. Arita said the situation now is having an “asymmetric impact” on American agriculturalists, as farmers are paying more to grow and sell their crops, but aren’t necessarily able to raise prices on consumers to match. That in turn leads to lost profit and endangered livelihoods.

“They’re running the American farmer into the ground and out of business,” Bartman said of the Trump administration. “The only thing that is cheaper today than three years ago in the United States is a bushel of soybeans.”

Adam Hudacek is a desk associate for MS NOW covering national politics in Washington, D.C.

The Dictatorship

Court denies request to immediately block DOJ ‘slush fund’

Published

6 hours ago

June 11, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Court denies request to immediately block DOJ ‘slush fund’

Jun. 10, 2026, 6:14 PM EDT

A federal judge in Washington has denied a bid Wednesday brought by a watchdog group to immediately block the Justice Department’s “anti-weaponization” fund, for now choosing to trust the department’s assertions that it is not moving forward with the fund.

U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ruled immediately, denying Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington’s request for a temporary restraining order that would have blocked the Department of Justice from taking steps to create the fund.

Throughout the 30-minute hearing, the DOJ reiterated that the administration was not moving forward with the nearly $1.8 billion fund, which seeks to compensate individuals who allege they have been politically targeted or victimized by the DOJ.

Andrew Block, the only lawyer present for the government, repeatedly cited Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s June 2 congressional testimonyin which he said the administration was “not moving forward” with plans to create the fund.

Leon indicated he agreed with the DOJ’s position that the case appeared to be moot, saying he was not persuaded there was an issue for the court to decide regarding the creation of the fund. He issued a stern warning to the DOJ, saying, “Don’t play possum with this court!” — meaning he does not want to be deceived.

The plaintiffs argued Blanche’s testimony did not amount to an official cancellation. Nikhel Sus, CREW’s attorney, said Blanche “refused to memorialize that rescission,” or in other words, put it in writing. Sus said that was “highly unusual.” Leon responded, “This whole case is highly unusual to say the least.”

Leon asked the government twice why they would not just rescind the order that established the fund. Block responded, “I don’t know,” and pointed again to Blanche’s public statements about the fund’s future.

Both Leon and Sus raised the issue of Trump’s continued public defense of the fund. “It can still be an important issue and also not moving forward,” Block said. “That isn’t a direction to move forward with the fund.”

Although Leon rejected CREW’s bid for an immediate block, he indicated he is still considering its request for a longer-term block against the fund.

A block order from a separate federal judge in Virginia remains in effect until at least Friday.

Fallon Gallagher is a legal affairs reporter for MS NOW.

The Dictatorship

Trump is accelerating our Social Security insolvency crisis

Published

6 hours ago

June 11, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Jun. 10, 2026, 5:50 PM EDT

The date when Social Security’s trust fund is expected to run out of money just got bumped up. The fund is now projected to empty in 2032according to a new report released by Social Security’s trustees.

The new depletion date isn’t an earth-shaking change — it’s only a quarter earlier than the estimate in last year’s report. But it illustrates how President Donald Trump’s policies are degrading a program he promised to never jeopardize — and accelerating an approaching crisis in how our government will assist the elderly and disabled.

The report names three factors that contributed to the earlier insolvency date. One is a declining fertility rate, but the other two drivers can be traced back to Trump: a drop in immigration into the country, and the “substantial effect” of the tax policies in the One Big Beautiful Bill he signed last summer.

Trump’s acceleration of the program’s insolvency comes atop his assaults on the program’s administrative capacities.

Reduced immigration during Trump’s second term — especially when coupled with a declining fertility rate — strains Social Security because the program is funded through payroll taxes. Those come out of people’s paychecks, and fewer workers supporting an aging population means the program receives less revenue. Indeed, Social Security already has been tapping its trust fund for the better part of the past two decades because the program’s costs have exceeded its cash income. And as the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities pointed out last yearlast year’s tax cuts were a boon to the rich but a bust for the solvency of the Social Security trust fund.

To be clear, if the fund is depleted, Social Security won’t go belly up. Benefits will continue to be paid out, but there will be a large drop in the amount. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the “average monthly cut would total $500, which is more than what the average retired household spends on groceries each month.”

That would be a huge blow to the budgets of many older Americans. Social Security is a major source of income for most retirees, and roughly 40% of beneficiaries over the age of 65 rely on it for most of their income. And it would mark the destabilization of the sole source of retirement security for most Americans that is supposed to be insulated from ups and downs — unlike 401K plans. As the CBPP has pointed outSocial Security is “most workers’ only source of guaranteed retirement income that is not subject to investment risk or financial market fluctuations.”

Trump’s acceleration of the program’s insolvency comes atop his assaults on the program’s administrative capacities. His cuts to the Social Security Administration have left offices understaffedincreased wait timesand reduced quality of customer service.

Ultimately, Trump is exacerbating a colossal social safety net problem that predates him, and the trust fund will hit dire straits after he has left office. Democrats need to have clear plans for shoring up the program and making it robust for the future — which will require not being sheepish about taxes as a tool for renewing the social contract. And when Republicans try to claim that they, too, are champions of Social Security, all Democrats need to do is point to the truth.

Zeeshan Aleem is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He primarily writes about politics and foreign policy.

The Dictatorship

Wednesday’s Mini-Report, 6.10.26

Published

6 hours ago

June 11, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Today’s edition of quick hits.

* The latest from Northern Ireland: “The family of a man who lost an eye in a knife attack appealed for calm on Wednesday after the incident triggered a wave of anti-immigrant violence in Belfast overnight, with masked men burning families out of their homes and torching vehicles. The appeal ‌came as a Sudanese man appeared in court charged with attempted murder and as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and politicians in Northern Ireland condemned the violence by ‘masked thugs’ that had targeted ethnic minorities.”

* In related news: “The British government hit out at X owner Elon Musk Wednesday, accusing him of whipping up tensions online ahead of disorder in Belfast.”

* The tenuous state of a dubious ceasefire: “Trump said the U.S. is going to hit Iran ‘hard’ today when pressed by reporters in the Oval Office about his statement earlier that Tehran will ‘pay the price’ for taking ‘too long’ to reach a peace agreement. ‘Well, we’re going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard, resuming bombing,’ he said.”

* The latest casualty figures from Lebanon: “Israel’s military offensive in Lebanon has killed at least 3,666 people, including 131 healthcare workers, and injured more than 11,300 since the U.S. and Israel began their war with Iran in late February, the Lebanese health ministry reported yesterday.”

* The changing nature of modern warfare: “Ukraine is wreaking havoc on unarmored trucks and trains in the battlefield’s rear, using drones with upgraded engines and batteries, integrated Starlink communication systems and new artificial-intelligence capabilities. The ramped-up attacks are causing fuel shortages, complicating troop rotations and reducing Russian military activity on the front.”

* This seems like a reasonable request: “Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee demanded Wednesday that Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump’s controversial pick for acting director of national intelligence, submit to a full security check before assuming the post, including an examination of his financial holdings and foreign contacts.”

* Some market trends can’t be stopped despite the White House’s best efforts: “Even as President Donald Trump boosts coal over clean energy, solar power is hitting new milestones in the U.S. and remains the leading source of new power. Data released Wednesday by global energy think tank Ember, along with a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie, show the continued growth of solar and decline of coal in the United States despite federal policy. In May, for the first time, solar supplied more of the nation’s electricity than coal, or 12.8%, Ember said.”

* A bizarre schedule for a nonemergency vanity project: “Federal officials are laying more groundwork to begin construction on President Donald Trump’s planned 250-foot-tall triumphal arch, sharing additional documents that detail the project’s scope and an aggressive timetable for potentially completing work before Trump’s term ends. According to National Park Service documents posted this month, the administration envisions 20 hours per day of construction on the arch, year-round, in hopes of completing the project within two to three years.”

See you tomorrow.

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”