Congress

House Republicans wanted the Senate to fix their megabill. They ‘miscalculated.’

Published

8 months ago

July 1, 2025

It was the exact opposite of what nearly everyone on Capitol Hill expected.

Rather than soften its edges, Senate Republicans took the sprawling Republican megabill the House sent them and sharpened it further, making the heart of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda more politically explosive.

GOP senators made steeper cuts to Medicaid, hastened cuts to wind and solar energy tax credits and also managed to add hundreds of billions of dollars more to the deficit compared to the House plan.

Usually, it’s far-right conservatives in the House proposing politically precarious policies, leaving the careful moderates in the Senate — the “cooling saucer,” according to the old Hill cliche — to dial them back.

This time, Senate Republicans were dead-set on making an expensive suite of pro-growth business tax cuts permanent. That required finding deep offsetting cuts, and the cold, hard calculus by the Senate GOP’s chief architects was that enough of their 53-member conference would ultimately swallow their protests and go along.

That bet paid off Tuesday with a 51-50 nail-biter vote. But now GOP senators are having to do some explaining to House Republicans who are already balking at the remodeled bill — particularly moderates who were counting on senators to water down the Medicaid and clean-energy provisions.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said House members who thought the Senate would walk back some of its changes had “miscalculated.”

“We are a more conservative body,” Cramer said in an interview, adding that there are moderates in the House who “cringe at the sound of any word that starts with ‘Medi.’”

As for conservatives who are cringing at the higher deficits created by the Senate bill, they’re not finding much sympathy among their Senate counterparts, who ended up embracing a controversial accounting tactic that effectively zeros out the cost of extending expiring tax cuts.

“We actually make the business provisions permanent, right? That’s the main difference,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said in an interview Monday about complaints by the House Freedom Caucus that the bill would add $651 billion to the deficit. Johnson was among a group of Senate fiscal hawks who railed against the legislation for months, then fell in line for the final vote Tuesday, just like their colleagues anticipated.

No permanence enemies

In the end, the fiscal impact of the bill grew in two directions: Despite Senate leaders’ vow to find more spending cuts, their bill might well have increased spending on net as a result of negotiations with holdouts who successfully pushed for increased funding for rural hospitals and carve-outs on safety-net program cutbacks.

“The bill includes over $500 billion in new spending, and at the end to get the vote of the Alaska senator, billions and billions more were added,” said Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, one of the three Republicans who voted against the bill Tuesday.

House members, he added, are “going to look at it and see that it’s much less conservative than it started out to be and it’s going to add much more to the debt.”

Strict Senate budget rules also meant that some House spending cuts had to be scaled back or dropped altogether, so senators had to dig deep to find offsets elsewhere — especially given the $466 billion cost of adding the permanent business tax cuts to the bill versus just extending them through 2029, as the House did.

Yet there was no serious discussion about leaving those tax cuts behind. Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo and other tax-writing Republicans considered it their top priority. Thune called it a red line for many of his members, and it was one that ultimately influenced some of the Senate’s most politically fraught decisions.

Thune drove a strategy that cut more deeply into Medicaid that many expected.

In an interview after the bill’s passage, Thune acknowledged that the decision to make the business tax cuts permanent impacted the savings and overall strategy for the bill.“We really believed that permanence was the key to economic growth because it creates certainty,” he said. “All the models that we saw showed that you got more growth with permanence.”

To compensate, Finance Committee Republicans significantly dialed back some of Trump’s marquee campaign promises to enact tax relief for tipped wages and overtime work. Many of those senators privately scoffed that the populist tax policies were not particularly pro-growth, as opposed to the write-offs for business equipment and research and development expenses.

Even more explosive, however, is how they chose to wring additional savings out of Medicaid. The joint federal-state health program had already emerged as a political hornet’s nest in the House, where members balked at various proposals that would turn off the federal money spigot and force states to kick residents off their health plans.

Eventually the House landed on a compromise proposal of capping medical provider taxes, a popular financing mechanism for state Medicaid programs. Many Republicans objected, but it beat several alternatives, such as explicitly reducing the federal cost share formula for Medicaid enrollees.

Medicaid backlash

Many Republican senators prepared to make their peace with the proposal, including Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, who said in a Monday interview that he was privately prepared to accept the House’s provider tax cap with minor tweaks after a hospital association in his state formally blessed it.

But before Hawley could announce his support, the Senate Finance Committee released a draft that discarded the freeze and instead drastically scaled down the tax. Instead of waving a white flag, Hawley went on the warpath, urging Thune to drop the Senate proposal and backchanneling with House leadership to undermine it.

Hawley, who described himself as “stunned” by the Senate’s provider tax language, said he never got an explanation for why leadership went down that route. In the interview, he held up and rubbed his fingers together — indicating that he believed they were looking for money.

“I think it’s a matter of our mark, the Senate mark, made a lot more of the business tax cuts permanent,” he said.

While leadership was ultimately able to get Hawley on board — he won approval for a radiation victims compensation fund he’s championed and other smaller goodies — the decision to go deeper on Medicaid lost Republicans two key senators during the final vote on Tuesday afternoon — Maine’s Susan Collins and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis.

Collins and Tillis ended up being two of the three

Both purple-state senators urged the Senate to revert to the House Medicaid language. Tillis privately warned leaders the Senate proposal would devastate his state and cost him reelection. Days later, he announced he would not run again and publicly torched the bill, saying it would “betray the promise Donald Trump made.”

The Senate’s Medicaid swerve has also put Speaker Mike Johnson in a bind. When he was locking down support for the House to pass its version of the bill, he privately reassured his members that the Senate would soften his chamber’s Medicaid cuts. Over the past week, he continued to reiterate to them that the Senate would end up closer to what the House passed. Now, he has to explain to increasingly frustrated House moderates why that didn’t happen.

But even as House Republicans were publicly banking on the Senate to soften the Medicaid cuts, Senate Republicans were pushing to go further. During an early June Finance Committee meeting with Trump at the White House, Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming described to the president how the provider tax amounted to “money laundering” and would constitute cracking down on fraud, according to a person granted anonymity to disclose private discussions.

The parliamentarian and the billionaire

Other unpredictable events forced Senate Republicans to lose out on hundreds of billions of dollars in savings. After lengthy debates between Republican and Democratic staff in June, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough advised that upward of $200 billion in House offsets would have to be left out of the bill because they didn’t comply with Senate budget rules.

House Republicans had also banked on $116 billion in revenue from retaliatory taxes aimed at dissuading foreign countries from implementing digital levies and a global minimum tax that the GOP detests. Shortly after the Senate included the proposal in its text — and a freakout by analysts on Wall Street — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a deal with G7 countries on the global tax and asked for the retaliatory taxes to be removed.

Other changes, like sharp cuts to certain clean-energy tax credits, seemed spurred more by politics than fiscal considerations. After the megabill passed the House in May, far-right influencers and lawmakers got increasingly vocal about what they perceived as deeply unfair subsidies to green industries.

Trump began calling Thune to urge him to take an axe to wind and solar energy incentives that had been enacted by former President Joe Biden, even after softened language backed by Senate moderates was inserted into the Finance Committee text. Trump told the same to Senate conservatives, many of whom had been swayed by fossil-fuel advocate Alex Epstein. They invited Epstein to address a Senate lunch in June to win over skeptical colleagues.

Bessent's late interventions killed a major source of tax-cut offsets.

Even a late intervention from the world’s richest man couldn’t move the needle. Elon Musk publicly lashed out at Republicans for scaling back the tax credits, including making a public appeal to Speaker Mike Johnson to keep them online. He also personally approached Thune in recent days as the Senate debated the bill. Thune declined to comment on the conversation, but afterward Musk continued attacking the bill, arguing that it would hurt America’s ability to compete with China.

Senate holdouts did manage to clinch the removal of a controversial tax on solar and wind energy projects in 11th-hour negotiations, as well as a carve-out from the phaseouts for projects that start construction immediately. But the harsh language pushed by Epstein, which required most other wind and solar projects to be placed in service by the end of 2027 to qualify for the incentives, stayed in the final Senate product.

Tillis, liberated of political niceties after announcing his retirement, railed against the clean-energy changes on the Senate floor on Sunday, arguing that they would gut power projects that are already being developed.

Taking aim at Epstein, Tillis chalked up the changes to “people who have never worked a day in this industry, maybe philosophized and written a few white papers on it, but haven’t gotten their hands dirty.”

Ben Jacobs contributed to this report.

Congress

Tennessee GOP Rep. Andy Ogles says Muslims ‘don’t belong’ in America

Published

1 hour ago

March 9, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Rep. Andy Ogles said on Monday that Muslims have no place in America, an Islamophobic attack from a sitting member of Congress.

“Muslims don’t belong in American society. Pluralism is a lie,” the Tennessee Republican posted Monday morning on X.

It is not the first bigoted social media post Ogles has made.

He has also said that “America and Islam are incompatible,” and has introduced legislation to halt immigration from Muslim-majority nations.

A spokesperson for Ogles referred Blue Light News to an interview the member of Congress did with Fox News following a shooting in Austin, Texas, in which he said that “mass Islamic immigration, legal or illegal, has transformed America and brought destructive consequences.”

Ogles’ post comes as Republicans gather in Florida for their annual retreat and could serve as a distraction as the party seeks to hash out its agenda ahead of the midterms.

Spokespeople for the offices of the top three House Republicans — Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Majority Whip Tom Emmer — did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Ogles’ legislation, the Halt Immigration from Countries with Inadequate Verification Capabilities Act, would amend the Immigration and Nationality Act by refusing admission to immigrants from some majority-Muslim countries like Iran, Libya and Syria. North Korea, Venezuela and Yemen are also named in the bill, which does make exceptions for U.S. citizens.

The bill, which is unlikely to become law, has already garnered the support of Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.), who said “we must protect America from jihadists.”

Fine has also come under fire for Islamophobic remarks recently.

Last month, the Florida Republican faced criticism for implying that dogs were preferable to Muslims. At least one Democrat called for Fine to be censured.

A spokesperson for Fine did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Congress

Capitol Agenda: Republicans face new Trump ultimatum

Published

5 hours ago

March 9, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

House Republicans are descending on President Donald Trump’s Doral resort Monday for their annual policy retreat, with hopes of sketching out their legislative priorities before the midterms.

Trump may have just upended that plan.

The president on Sunday said he wouldn’t sign any bills until Republicans pass the sweeping elections overhaul known as the SAVE America Act. Paired with a new Middle East War, surging oil prices and persistent internal turmoil threatening the House GOP’s razor-thin majority, the kickoff of the party’s South Florida gathering is looking anything but sunny.

Here’s a preview of what’s coming at the retreat:

— TRUMP’S SAVE AMERICA SCRAMBLE: The president is set to speak to Republicans Monday at 5 p.m. We’ll be watching the extent to which he leans into his SAVE America Act ultimatum and another demand that Republicans add restrictions on transgender surgeries and mail voting. Trump’s request to expand the bill may trigger more GOP infighting and further weaken a push to skirt the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster to pass it.

— RECONCILING RECONCILIATION: Many House Republicans hope to leave the retreat with clarity on another major question: whether they’ll try to pass a second party-line budget reconciliation bill. Speaker Mike Johnson promised some members he would try, but the effort would require near-total GOP unity and could well be DOA in the Senate. Some Republicans think the need for more war funding could jumpstart a fresh reconciliation push given opposition by Senate Democrats.

— COMMITTEE CHAIRS SPEAK: Committee chairs are set to discuss their legislative plans for the year Tuesday afternoon.

House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith is expected to talk through a list of bipartisan health care and tax priorities. House Financial Services Chair French Hill said he’s planning to discuss his panel’s reconciliation priorities, as well as unfinished housing and crypto bills he’s working out with the Senate.

House Homeland Security Chair Andrew Garbarino said he was planning to share details about how the DHS funding lapse is degrading the department’s preparedness and discuss reauthorization bills under his panel’s jurisdiction.

Republicans expect House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole and Rep. Ken Calvert, who chairs the funding panel that oversees the Pentagon, to discuss an anticipated White House request for more military funding in light of the Middle East war.

— ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK: Republicans on Tuesday are set to hear from White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, 2024 Trump campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Conservative commentator Scott Jennings will brief them on GOP messaging, while podcast host Ben Shapiro will address the “speed of new media” in a Wednesday morning session.

What else we’re watching:

— Housing bill’s House hurdles: The Senate is set to pass bipartisan housing legislation as soon as this week, but House conservatives are gearing up to fight it. At issue is a part of the bill that would restrict the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency through 2030. The House has passed a permanent CBDC ban, and on Friday 32 House Republicans told leaders in a letter that the housing bill would be “dead on arrival” without it. The White House has said it wants to pass the Senate bill as-is.

— AI-boosted campaign ad: Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who is campaigning to reclaim the South Side of Chicago seat he once held, is launching a new TV and digital ad Monday featuring an endorsement from former Rep. Bobby Rush delivered partly via artificial intelligence. The spot initially shows Rush speaking in his actual voice, weakened from a battle with throat cancer. He then continues speaking in a restored version of the voice he had decades ago.

— Rudd nomination: The Senate will vote to advance the nomination of Lt. Gen. Joshua Rudd to be a general Monday. If confirmed, he’s set to lead the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command.

Katherine Hapgood, Shia Kapos and Calen Razor contributed to this report.

Congress

House Republicans face internal and external headwinds as they gather to map out 2026

Published

9 hours ago

March 9, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

DORAL, Florida — House Republicans head to their annual policy retreat Monday in south Florida. Their outlook for the remainder of 2026 is anything but sunny.

GOP lawmakers were already under pressure to address cost-of-living issues ahead of the November midterms. Now President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war in the Middle East is spiking energy prices and threatening to strain the federal budget just as new signs emerge that the domestic economy is weakening.

Internally, turmoil continues to wrack the GOP’s ultra-narrow majority. Renegade members are routinely bucking leadership — for instance, hauling in Trump’s attorney general for testimony on the Jeffrey Epstein probe. And last week’s primaries generated a fresh trio of lame-duck Republicans who leaders fear might no longer feel compelled to show up for votes on a regular basis.

On top of it all, Trump has focused his legislative energies on matters far afield from what many Republican lawmakers want to tackle. In recent days, he has renewed his push for a long-shot elections bill, adding in additional provisions targeting transgender rights for good measure.

The members gathering at Trump’s Doral resort Monday are seeking to keep the focus on what they can control — with plans to discuss a new party-line budget reconciliation bill as well as so-far elusive options to lower health care costs, fund the Department of Homeland Security and advance stalled housing legislation.

“We have to discuss exactly how we advance the president’s agenda for the last eight months before the election, and we have to set those plans in motion,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chair of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, said in an interview.

Trump will address the lawmakers Monday evening as they wait for cues on the president’s policy priorities for the pre-midterm period.

House GOP leaders expect a serious battle to unfold during the retreat over whether to pursue another reconciliation bill — something Speaker Mike Johnson has promised some of his members he will pursue. But it would require almost complete unity among Republicans and faces the distinct possibility it could be DOA in the Senate.

It doesn’t help that Trump himself threw cold water on the idea last month, saying Republicans have “gotten everything passed that we need” ahead of the midterms. Since then, the Middle East War has threatened the low gas prices the president often touts and Friday’s jobs report showed much weaker-than-expected hiring.

Instead, Trump has spent much of his energy stumping for a bill that would not comply with the filibuster-skirting rules of the budget reconciliation process — the SAVE America Act, which would toughen proof-of-citizenship standards for voting. The House passed two versions of the bill, but Trump is now asking for additional provisions barring most mail voting and gender reassignment surgeries for minors.

The president threatened Sunday to not sign any more bills unless Congress passes his version of SAVE America first — and House GOP leaders are bracing for a debate over the legislation to erupt at the retreat, with Trump sure to make his demands in person Monday night.

Besides Trump’s address Monday, lawmakers are set to hear from top White House political aide James Blair, former Trump campaign co-chair Chris LaCivita and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett. Conservative commentator Scott Jennings will brief them on GOP messaging Tuesday, while podcast host Ben Shapiro will address the “speed of new media” in a Wednesday morning session.

Committee chairs are set to discuss their legislative plans for the year Tuesday afternoon, followed by a closed-door meeting of senior elected leaders. Majority Leader Steve Scalise described the sessions in an interview as “members talking to members about planning out the rest of the year.”

“We’ve been working incredibly close with President Trump this whole last year-and-a-half to make life more affordable for families, and there’s more we want to do this year and beyond,” he added.

Republicans also expect House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole of Oklahoma and Rep. Ken Calvert of California, chair of the funding panel that oversees the Pentagon, to discuss an anticipated White House request for military assistance and other possible items.

Some Republicans think the need for more war funding could jumpstart a fresh reconciliation push, given expected Democratic opposition in the Senate. One of those optimistic members is House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington of Texas, who said in an interview he would pair new military spending with cuts to Pentagon programs that need to be “retooled.”

Top party leaders have also instructed committee chairs to revisit items that were dropped from the megabill enacted last summer as they consider what might get folded into a new piece of legislation. But some remain highly skeptical this effort will ever gain traction.

House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said in an interview Thursday that he doesn’t “see a pathway” for it.

“Maybe people can prove me wrong,” he said.

Elsewhere, Johnson is under pressure to advance stalled legislation to crack down on lawmaker stock trading, a farm bill, and possibly an energy permitting overhaul and a highway bill. All have some bipartisan support but constitute major legislative lifts.

Smith is expected to talk through a list of bipartisan health care and tax priorities he hopes to advance to the House floor and send over to the Senate. House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) said in an interview he’s planning to discuss his panel’s reconciliation priorities, as well as unfinished housing and cryptocurrency market structure bills — both of which are currently stuck in negotiations with the Senate.

The retreat also opens on the 24th day of an ongoing DHS shutdown impacting TSA, FEMA and other security operations. House Homeland Security Chair Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) said he was planning to share details about how the funding lapse is degrading the department’s preparedness, as well as a number of reauthorization bills under his panel’s jurisdiction.

Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan, the No. 4 GOP leader, said another major topic will be how Republicans should be selling last summer’s party-line tax and spending package and what can be done “between now and the end of the year to lower costs for the American family, bring down prices, bring more manufacturing over, bring costs down and [put] more money in their pocket.”

But pursuing any partisan legislative undertaking will require near-complete unity in the GOP ranks.. With only one defection permitted under the current party split, Johnson has to worry about members like Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who forced disclosure of the Epstein files, and Nancy Mace of South Carolina, who led the effort to subpoena Attorney General Pam Bondi.

Johnson also can’t afford any attendance issues: A handful of members are dealing with health problems, including Rep. Neal Dunn of Florida, who was thought to be considering resignation before announcing he’d serve out his term. There’s the growing cadre of lame ducks, too, which now includes Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas, who missed votes Thursday after admitting to an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide. Texas Reps. Dan Crenshaw and Wesley Hunt also lost primary races last week.

The House GOP’s math problem could improve following a special election Tuesday for the seat vacated by former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), which is expected to go to another Republican. But with more than 20 candidates in the GOP primary, the race could go to a monthlong runoff.

Republican leaders are also banking on having the votes to expel a Democrat, Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick of Florida, who has been federally indicted on corruption charges. But they have to first wait until the House Ethics Committee holds a hearing on the matter, and those proceedings were delayed until later this month after Cherfilus-McCormick lost her lawyer.

Democrats, meanwhile, could attempt to counter her expulsion by attempting to expel Gonzales, who says he plans to finish out his term. House Democratic leaders are also pushing their members to show up and make every vote as uncomfortable for the GOP as possible.

“There’s a lot of jobs I don’t want in this town,” Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, the Democratic Caucus chair, said at a recent news conference. “And Republican whip is definitely high on that list.”

Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.