Congress

House Republicans face internal and external headwinds as they gather to map out 2026

Published

4 months ago

March 9, 2026

DORAL, Florida — House Republicans head to their annual policy retreat Monday in south Florida. Their outlook for the remainder of 2026 is anything but sunny.

GOP lawmakers were already under pressure to address cost-of-living issues ahead of the November midterms. Now President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war in the Middle East is spiking energy prices and threatening to strain the federal budget just as new signs emerge that the domestic economy is weakening.

Internally, turmoil continues to wrack the GOP’s ultra-narrow majority. Renegade members are routinely bucking leadership — for instance, hauling in Trump’s attorney general for testimony on the Jeffrey Epstein probe. And last week’s primaries generated a fresh trio of lame-duck Republicans who leaders fear might no longer feel compelled to show up for votes on a regular basis.

On top of it all, Trump has focused his legislative energies on matters far afield from what many Republican lawmakers want to tackle. In recent days, he has renewed his push for a long-shot elections bill, adding in additional provisions targeting transgender rights for good measure.

The members gathering at Trump’s Doral resort Monday are seeking to keep the focus on what they can control — with plans to discuss a new party-line budget reconciliation bill as well as so-far elusive options to lower health care costs, fund the Department of Homeland Security and advance stalled housing legislation.

“We have to discuss exactly how we advance the president’s agenda for the last eight months before the election, and we have to set those plans in motion,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chair of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, said in an interview.

Trump will address the lawmakers Monday evening as they wait for cues on the president’s policy priorities for the pre-midterm period.

House GOP leaders expect a serious battle to unfold during the retreat over whether to pursue another reconciliation bill — something Speaker Mike Johnson has promised some of his members he will pursue. But it would require almost complete unity among Republicans and faces the distinct possibility it could be DOA in the Senate.

It doesn’t help that Trump himself threw cold water on the idea last month, saying Republicans have “gotten everything passed that we need” ahead of the midterms. Since then, the Middle East War has threatened the low gas prices the president often touts and Friday’s jobs report showed much weaker-than-expected hiring.

Instead, Trump has spent much of his energy stumping for a bill that would not comply with the filibuster-skirting rules of the budget reconciliation process — the SAVE America Act, which would toughen proof-of-citizenship standards for voting. The House passed two versions of the bill, but Trump is now asking for additional provisions barring most mail voting and gender reassignment surgeries for minors.

The president threatened Sunday to not sign any more bills unless Congress passes his version of SAVE America first — and House GOP leaders are bracing for a debate over the legislation to erupt at the retreat, with Trump sure to make his demands in person Monday night.

Besides Trump’s address Monday, lawmakers are set to hear from top White House political aide James Blair, former Trump campaign co-chair Chris LaCivita and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett. Conservative commentator Scott Jennings will brief them on GOP messaging Tuesday, while podcast host Ben Shapiro will address the “speed of new media” in a Wednesday morning session.

Committee chairs are set to discuss their legislative plans for the year Tuesday afternoon, followed by a closed-door meeting of senior elected leaders. Majority Leader Steve Scalise described the sessions in an interview as “members talking to members about planning out the rest of the year.”

“We’ve been working incredibly close with President Trump this whole last year-and-a-half to make life more affordable for families, and there’s more we want to do this year and beyond,” he added.

Republicans also expect House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole of Oklahoma and Rep. Ken Calvert of California, chair of the funding panel that oversees the Pentagon, to discuss an anticipated White House request for military assistance and other possible items.

Some Republicans think the need for more war funding could jumpstart a fresh reconciliation push, given expected Democratic opposition in the Senate. One of those optimistic members is House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington of Texas, who said in an interview he would pair new military spending with cuts to Pentagon programs that need to be “retooled.”

Top party leaders have also instructed committee chairs to revisit items that were dropped from the megabill enacted last summer as they consider what might get folded into a new piece of legislation. But some remain highly skeptical this effort will ever gain traction.

House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said in an interview Thursday that he doesn’t “see a pathway” for it.

“Maybe people can prove me wrong,” he said.

Elsewhere, Johnson is under pressure to advance stalled legislation to crack down on lawmaker stock trading, a farm bill, and possibly an energy permitting overhaul and a highway bill. All have some bipartisan support but constitute major legislative lifts.

Smith is expected to talk through a list of bipartisan health care and tax priorities he hopes to advance to the House floor and send over to the Senate. House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) said in an interview he’s planning to discuss his panel’s reconciliation priorities, as well as unfinished housing and cryptocurrency market structure bills — both of which are currently stuck in negotiations with the Senate.

The retreat also opens on the 24th day of an ongoing DHS shutdown impacting TSA, FEMA and other security operations. House Homeland Security Chair Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) said he was planning to share details about how the funding lapse is degrading the department’s preparedness, as well as a number of reauthorization bills under his panel’s jurisdiction.

Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan, the No. 4 GOP leader, said another major topic will be how Republicans should be selling last summer’s party-line tax and spending package and what can be done “between now and the end of the year to lower costs for the American family, bring down prices, bring more manufacturing over, bring costs down and [put] more money in their pocket.”

But pursuing any partisan legislative undertaking will require near-complete unity in the GOP ranks.. With only one defection permitted under the current party split, Johnson has to worry about members like Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who forced disclosure of the Epstein files, and Nancy Mace of South Carolina, who led the effort to subpoena Attorney General Pam Bondi.

Johnson also can’t afford any attendance issues: A handful of members are dealing with health problems, including Rep. Neal Dunn of Florida, who was thought to be considering resignation before announcing he’d serve out his term. There’s the growing cadre of lame ducks, too, which now includes Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas, who missed votes Thursday after admitting to an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide. Texas Reps. Dan Crenshaw and Wesley Hunt also lost primary races last week.

The House GOP’s math problem could improve following a special election Tuesday for the seat vacated by former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), which is expected to go to another Republican. But with more than 20 candidates in the GOP primary, the race could go to a monthlong runoff.

Republican leaders are also banking on having the votes to expel a Democrat, Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick of Florida, who has been federally indicted on corruption charges. But they have to first wait until the House Ethics Committee holds a hearing on the matter, and those proceedings were delayed until later this month after Cherfilus-McCormick lost her lawyer.

Democrats, meanwhile, could attempt to counter her expulsion by attempting to expel Gonzales, who says he plans to finish out his term. House Democratic leaders are also pushing their members to show up and make every vote as uncomfortable for the GOP as possible.

“There’s a lot of jobs I don’t want in this town,” Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, the Democratic Caucus chair, said at a recent news conference. “And Republican whip is definitely high on that list.”

Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

Congress

Turek leads Hinson in Iowa Senate poll of likely general election voters

Published

4 hours ago

June 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Iowa Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek has a narrow lead over GOP rival Ashley Hinson in a new internal poll of likely general-election voters.

Turek leads Hinson 47 percent to 45 percent in the poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group from June 8-11 among 1,000 likely general election voters. The poll shows that Republicans have a 10-point edge in voter registration (42 percent to 32 percent) and an electorate that voted for Trump by 9 points (50 percent for Trump to 41 percent for Kamala Harris).

But the polling also shows President Donald Trump’s favorabilities underwater across the electorate, with 45 percent favorable and 52 percent unfavorable. Among registered independents, Trump is upside down 28 points.

Turek is “significantly outperforming the state’s underlying partisan dynamics,” Global Strategy Group’s Matt Canter & Ramzi Ebbini write in a memo first obtained by Blue Light News. “Republicans maintain substantial advantages in voter registration and party identification, yet Turek enters the general election ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson, with stronger personal favorability ratings, overperforming a generic Democrat, and with clear opportunities to expand his coalition as more voters become familiar with him.”

Some Republicans have acknowledged a concern about Iowa.

“There are some issues there that we got to deal with — the biggest one is trade — trade and tariffs,” said a Republican close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the obstacles.

In his early general election messaging, Turek has leaned into farmers’ frustrations.

“Josh Turek is winning this race because Iowans are sick and tired of multi-millionaire politicians like Ashley Hinson who sell out working families while they get rich,” Turek for Iowa campaign manager Brendan Koch said in a statement first shared with Blue Light News. “We will spend the next 134 days connecting with Iowans in every corner of the state and across the political spectrum to send a fighter for the working class to the U.S. Senate.”

Congress

Capitol agenda: House GOP races to make Recon 3.0 real

Published

5 hours ago

June 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

House Republicans have eight days to prove Reconciliation 3.0 might actually happen.

The House returns Tuesday with only eight legislative days before they break again for the July 4 holiday. If members want a realistic chance at fulfilling their self-imposed timeline for advancing the legislation before the end of July — when they pause work again for another five weeks — they need to move fast.

That means assembling, and then adopting, a budget resolution — the first step in unlocking the filibuster skirting power of the reconciliation process. It took Republicans months to advance such a blueprint during their two earlier reconciliation efforts this Congress.

House GOP leaders are tentatively planning another senior-level reconciliation meeting for Wednesday, according to three people involved in the talks granted anonymity to discuss private plans.

Still, the House is coming back with several other moving items to deal with this week, including promised briefings on the president’s Iran deal and a major housing affordability package GOP leadership wants to clear as soon as Wednesday.

Reconciliation talks also come as President Donald Trump is expected to join the Senate’s GOP lunch Wednesday, where he’ll likely continue pushing the chamber to pass his SAVE America Act or attach pieces of the GOP elections bill to the party-line legislation (an idea one of the bill’s biggest backers, Sen. Mike Lee, spiked Sunday).

Republicans involved with Reconciliation 3.0 discussions also warn they need to reach a final agreement on how to pay for the bill as well as what policy items will be included before GOP leaders can try to advance any budget resolution.

At this point, however, many fiscal hawks and at-risk incumbents are largely unhappy about how the discussions are coming along.

“It’s fake pay-fors for defense spending no one has fully agreed to and no meaningful reforms,” said one House Republican granted anonymity to discuss private talks.

Back on the other side of the Capitol, GOP senators have been in no rush to start working on a third party-line bill, especially as they are consumed with other political fires — like trying to confirm Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence to speed up a FISA reauthorization (more on that below).

Rep. Morgan Griffith said he was confident if the right policies are included in the House plan the Senate would then take it up — although he, too, acknowledged the challenges of a short timeline.

“If we do it right, yeah,” Griffith said. “There’s some interesting things out there that are being discussed that could make it a real possibility.”

What else we’re watching:

— OBAMA’S FEROCIOUS IRAN CRITIC SOFTER ON TRUMP DEAL: Tom Cotton, the No. 3 Senate Republican and chair of the chamber’s Intelligence panel, is not alone among GOP defense hawks in finding himself in an awkward position trying to defend Trump’s Iran deal after lambasting President Barack Obama’s a decade before. But the combination of his prior ferocity toward the Iranian regime and his current leadership responsibilities have put him into an especially tight spot.

— FIRST IN IC: DEMS WANT MORE OF JACK SMITH’S REPORT: Senate Judiciary Democrats are asking a federal court to unseal part of former special counsel Jack Smith’s report about his investigation into Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified documents after his first term. The request from the Senators comes as the Judiciary Committee is poised to call Smith to testify about his Biden-era cases before the end of this Congress. Republicans in the House and Senate have been investigating Smith’s work, alleging it amounted to a weaponization of the federal government against the then ex-president.

Jordain Carney and Hailey Fuchs contributed to this report.

Congress

A rising populist tide is threatening New York’s powerful incumbents

Published

7 hours ago

June 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

NEW YORK — Incumbents beware: The public is angry.

As voters across the country express frustration with the political establishment, congressional hopefuls are seeing a prime opportunity to tap into a movement with the potential to manifest a handful of upsets in New York’s primary elections.

The dynamic is playing out in intraparty electoral brawls across the state, where the outcomes will shape the political future for Democrats and Republicans alike.

In upper Manhattan and the Bronx, Democratic Rep. Adriano Espaillat is trying to fend off a stiff challenge from community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier, who’s running with the backing of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani — a democratic socialist who channeled populist fervor in his successful bid last year.

Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, Rep. Nydia Velazquez’s preferred successor, is squaring off against first-term Assemblymember Claire Valdez, another hopeful backed by Mamdani. Like the mayor, both Valdez and Avila Chevalier are members of the Democratic Socialists of America.

And in the upstate New York fight to replace GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik, Republican Assemblymember Robert Smullen — running with the backing of the state party — is locked in a caustic battle with Anthony Constantino, President Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate.

Candidates with scant political experience are channeling the public’s exasperated mood with the expectation that restive voters will reward them. Populist anger over rising prices and Washington leadership have provided an opening to outsiders promising a new path. And this combination has created one of the most perilous political environments for incumbents since Trump’s first presidential victory a decade ago stoked an anti-establishment fire that’s burning brighter than ever.

“If you’re perceived as being part of the status quo, then you’ve got a problem,” said Republican pollster John McLaughlin. “Regardless of which party, if you’re perceived as bringing about change you’ll win. If you’re inside the beltway you’re not talking to normal people.”

New York’s closed party primary battles are a window into the broader challenges facing incumbents across the country at a time of sustained grievance over affordability and hardening partisanship. At the same time, voters are increasingly willing to be unfazed by a candidate’s baggage — be it Graham Platner in Maine or Avila Chevalier’s tweets criticizing Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. It paints a picture of an electorate that’s willing to embrace flawed candidates, reject a political establishment they believe has failed to deliver on their promises and eager to send a message to their perceived enemies.

“We’re in a negative partisan environment and one of the most negative partisan environments we’ve ever witnessed,” Democratic former Rep. Steve Israel said. “People will overlook blemishes in their party in order to meet the existential goal of beating the other party. That creates openings for outsiders to come in with tattoos and old social media posts.”

The mood is reflected in the polling. A statewide Siena University survey released last month found a plurality of voters, 48 percent, believe New York is heading in the wrong direction. A sizable majority — 65 percent — said the country is on the wrong track.

Cost-of-living concerns, which enabled Trump’s White House return two years ago, continue to be a major factor in global elections. In the UK, affordability woes over housing and utility rates have put the ruling Labour Party on its backfoot and threaten to short-circuit Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s tenure.

Rising gas prices in the U.S. following Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran have kept inflation stubbornly high, teeing up what’s expected to be a difficult GOP midterm. And while Democrats are feeling bullish about their prospects this November, they’re still dealing with their own, often vast, intraparty differences of opinion.

That’s especially apparent in New York, where both the leaders of the House and Senate could be situated if the Democrats have blowout wins this year. But Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — both from Brooklyn — are not necessarily being welcomed with open arms. Some leading congressional candidates have declined to commit to supporting Jeffries as speaker if Democrats take back the House, yet another sign of hopefuls attempting to ride an anti-incumbent — and anti-establishment — sentiment.

At a debate earlier this month, the question of backing Jeffries as speaker revealed a stark contrast between Valdez and Reynoso: the former said she’s not committed to voting yes or no, while Reynoso said he would because if one doesn’t, you “become a pariah in Congress” and “won’t get any resources” into the district.

Schumer is on even shakier ground. In debates over recent weeks, when asked if they’re in favor of the 75-year-old running for reelection in 2028, many candidates in competitive races said outright that they’re not, or dodge the question. The Siena University poll released in May found Schumer’s favorable rating with New York voters statewide at only 33 percent. A majority of voters, 52 percent, hold an unfavorable view of the longtime senator — including 40 percent of Democrats.

Former city Comptroller Brad Lander, who’s waging a formidable challenge against Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman, often argues that his campaign is to enact “bold new leadership” (despite a long career in city politics). In response to a question about Schumer running for reelection, he said, “It’s time for a new leadership in the Democratic Party.” Goldman, for his part, said: “We’ll deal with that when the time comes.”

Gustavo Gordillo, co-chair of the city chapter of the DSA, said that “a key factor is seeing the failures of the Democratic Party to stop Donald Trump two elections now.” In previous cycles, he added, it felt like “a lot of people were not in the fight.”

“The national political situation has changed that for so many people, and that’s what created this hunger,” Gordillo said.

Voters’ willingness to buck incumbents has been long-simmering — and reached a boiling point in last year’s mayoral election after Mamdani, then a member of the Assembly, ran as an outsider to topple both embattled then-Mayor Eric Adams and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

“Coming off of a year when so many Democratic voters felt so cynical and disaffected by the Democratic Party, there were glimmers of hope in New York when someone like Zohran was elevated, to show, ‘Okay, we can transform this party by transforming leadership,’” said Usamah Andrabi, communications director for Justice Democrats, the progressive group that helped boost the Squad. “Our job is to take that momentum from Zohran’s victory and show voters you don’t have to stop here.”

The group is backing Valdez and recruited Avila Chevalier, who seemed like a gamble just weeks ago as the race was still flying under the radar. And while that campaign is still expected to be a tough battle, the suddenly high-profile nature of the race — sparked by Mamdani’s endorsement of Avila Chevalier and millions of dollars in spending from pro-Espaillat entities — is evidence that it was at least worth a shot for Justice Democrats, which had a brutal 2024 cycle when Reps. Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri were both defeated in primaries.

The power of incumbency has for years made knocking out officeholders an uphill battle. And for retiring incumbents, that power would almost guarantee their hand-picked successor would follow them. But even that’s not enough this cycle, as evidenced in the crowded primary for outgoing Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler’s seat, which has been anything but a glide path for his heir apparent, state Assemblymember Micah Lasher. His opponents have sought to frame themselves as “outsiders” — even if many of them do have political ties — from fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores’ assertion that he’s a victim of Big Tech’s ire to Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg’s argument that he’s not beholden to any super PACs.

Still, some contend that experience is needed in this political climate. A super PAC backing Reynoso recently put out advertisements positioning him as someone “ready to fight back” — compared to Valdez, who has “barely a year in office.” Goldman has repeatedly made the argument that his seniority in Congress is too much to give up, arguing that Lander would be a “rookie” on Blue Light News, where legislating is more difficult given the partisan divides. And in a recent debate, Espaillat charged that Avila Chevalier “doesn’t know legislation.”

”This is a critical time in America,” Espaillat said. ”We need a fighter, somebody that really knows government.”

In New York and across the country, the playing field has been leveled significantly between incumbents and political newcomers — thanks in large part to social media turbocharging fundraising and widespread voter dissatisfaction.

Further complicating matters is partisan redistricting creating fewer swing seats, but increasingly deep blue or ruby red districts where the more competitive race is often the primary.

“You just have to care about not pissing off Trump if you’re a Republican,” former GOP Rep. John Katko said. “If you’re a Democrat you have to worry about not upsetting the far left. The cards are so stacked because of gerrymandering.”