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The Senate megabill is on a collision course with House fiscal hawks

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House fiscal hawks are looking at the math underlying Senate Republicans’ sprawling domestic policy legislation, and they don’t like what they see.

As Senate Republicans try to muscle President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” for final passage, they’re on track to violate a budget framework brokered between House fiscal hawks and Speaker Mike Johnson. Under that framework, if the GOP piles on tax cuts over $4 trillion, they’d need to match them dollar-for-dollar with additional spending cuts beyond the $1.5 trillion in the House-passed bill.

“The Senate version adds $651 billion to the deficit — and that’s before interest costs, which nearly double the total,” said the House Freedom Caucus in a Monday afternoon post on X. “The Senate must make major changes and should at least be in the ballpark of compliance with the agreed upon House budget framework.”

It’s a wonky hill to die on, but dozens of House conservatives insisted on the deal before smoothing the megabill’s path through their chamber. Johnson at one point told the conservatives they could go after his gavel if he didn’t hold up the deal — what some of the holdouts considered a “blood oath.”

If the House hawks stand by the deal and the Senate bill doesn’t change appreciably during the final amendment vote marathon that got underway Monday, it could force GOP leaders to “conference” the legislation between the two chambers — likely delaying the bill’s passage beyond Trump’s deadline of July 4.

Now compounding concerns for House GOP leaders, who have ordered members back to Washington to start voting on the bill Wednesday morning, billionaire Elon Musk sent new volleys of criticism at Trump’s marquee legislation Monday over the bill’s deficit impact.

“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” said Musk on X on Monday. “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”

The House fiscal hawks have been crystal-clear about their fiscal red lines, though many now privately worry that they could end up getting jammed by Senate Republicans — and by Trump — with a far spendier bill. Johnson on Monday would not address whether the pending Senate bill could pass the House but told reporters he’s long advised Senate GOP leaders to hew as close to the House version as possible.

There’s “a lot of game left to play,” he added.

Notably, a group of 38 House Republicans led by Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) wrote Senate Majority Leader John Thune in early June warning that any changes to the GOP megabill needed to adhere to the fiscal framework laid out by the House. Under that plan, if the GOP includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts in their bill, then they would need to scrounge up at least $2 trillion in spending cuts.

It’s already looking to be a far cry from what Senate Republicans hope to pass in the coming hours.

According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the Senate’s plan includes around $4.45 trillion of tax cuts versus the $3.8 trillion in tax cuts passed by the House. But the spending cuts contemplated by the Senate GOP wouldn’t come close to making up the difference, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the other official budget scorer on Capitol Hill.

CBO estimates the Senate plan includes around $1.5 trillion in mandatory spending cuts, but that amount is reduced by around $300 billion in one-time investments in border funding and national security policy.

“The Senate bill is currently out of compliance with the budget framework by $651 billion, which is adjusted for dynamic revenue from higher economic growth,” said Paul Winfree, CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center and a top economic official during Trump’s first administration, in a text. “I think it will be very important to get that number closer to $0 to avoid conference.”

Senate Republicans in many ways made steeper cuts to Medicaid than the House, which would have otherwise helped rectify the difference.

But between $200 and $300 billion in spending cuts included in the House-passed bill were knocked out because they didn’t comply with Senate budget rules. The chamber’s parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has been in constant talks with Senate Republican and Democratic staff about whether provisions in the legislation are fit for the filibuster-skirting reconciliation process.

“What we’ve been told is somewhere around $250 billion, because I’ve heard $300 and I’ve heard [$200], so I’m gonna split the difference,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) of the sidelined spending cuts.

Mullin added that House Republicans should look at the score of tax cuts under the so-called current policy baseline, which assumes that trillions of dollars of expiring tax cuts would be extended.

“I think it’s up to the House how they want to look at this, because they can go in two different directions,” said Mullin. “If you go underneath current law, then you have a deficit. If you go into current policy, you actually have a surplus of $507 billion.”

Still, prominent Republicans such as Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and conservative firebrand Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) have argued that Senate Republicans still need to do the math as laid out in the House budget, regardless of which baseline they use.

Rep. Keith Self, another Texas Republican, wrote Monday on X that senators are “completely ignoring” the House budget framework. “This isn’t just reckless,” he wrote, “it’s fiscally criminal.”

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

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Congress

Cornyn gets a big fundraising boost in Texas Senate primary against Paxton

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John Cornyn is not going down without a fight.

After months of polls showing the four-term Texas senator trailing in the Republican primary, a pro-Cornyn super PAC raised almost $11 million in the most recent fundraising period.

Texans for a Conservative Majority, the outside group supporting Cornyn in his primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, will have over $12 million cash on hand after the current fundraising quarter. The group has raised over $10.9 million in the quarter after Paxton announced his primary challenge against Cornyn.

Cornyn has been consistently trailing polls in the Senate primary against Paxton, whose indictment and impeachment over corruption and bribery charges left him well regarded by conservative grassroots activists loyal to Donald Trump but viewed skeptically by Republican operatives worried about his reception among swing voters in a midterm election.

“This first report shows what the armchair pundits fail to realize — this race is only beginning in earnest,” Aaron Whitehead, the executive director of the outside pro-Cornyn group, told Blue Light News. “With eight months to go before the March primary, Texans for a Conservative Majority is well positioned to take the fight to Ken Paxton and independently support Senator John Cornyn’s re-election.”

Texas’ primary will be held on March 3, 2026.

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Capitol agenda: Murkowski slams brakes on megabill

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s ability to pass the “big, beautiful bill” is hinging on Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

The Alaska senator has been the subject of an intense whip effort by GOP leaders over the past couple of hours as they try to offer her reassurances on Medicaid and food assistance. Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso talked to Murkowski on the floor for roughly an hour overnight. Thune and Murkowski huddled briefly in his office, and they were mum on details when they emerged shortly before 4 a.m.

Just moments ago, the Senate parliamentarian ruled that proposed SNAP carve-outs for Alaska and other states are compliant with the Byrd rule. But Republicans have struggled to get approval for a Medicaid provision also aimed at Murkowski’s home state.

Murkowski is also among the Republicans who have been pushing an amendment to undo the rollback of clean-energy credits under the Biden-era climate law.

Thune insisted to reporters moments ago that senators were closing in on the end of their vote-a-rama.

“We’re close,” he said, adding that they have a few more amendments from senators and a final so-called wraparound amendment to come.

In a potential sign of just how dire Thune’s whip count was looking in the wee hours, the majority leader huddled in his office with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who’s long said he would be a “no” on the bill over its debt-ceiling hike.

Another big unknown right now is where Sen. Susan Collins will fall. The Maine senator reminded us less than two hours ago that she’s “said all along that I have concerns with the bill” and also reiterated, when prompted by reporters, that she would have preferred breaking out the tax portion of the policy package on a separate track. Certainly not helping win Collins over: Her bid to boost money for rural hospitals went up in flames.

And major policy fights remain unresolved, including Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) divisive amendment to scale back federal payments under the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion. Scott has leadership’s support on this one and said he expects it to pass. But several GOP senators have openly raised concerns with it.

What else we’re watching:

— Megabill goes to House Rules: Assuming the Senate passes the bill, the House is expected to bring the bill to the Rules Committee at noon on Tuesday, though two people with direct knowledge of the plans say it could get pushed amid delays with the Senate vote-a-rama.

— The next funding battle begins: Senate appropriators plan to move forward with marking up fiscal 2026 government funding bills starting next week. House Appropriations is scheduled to vote July 10 on the Commerce, Justice, Science bill and the Energy and Water Development bill. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) wants to finish marking up all 12 funding bills by the end of July.

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Trump & Co. launch final megabill pressure campaign

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President Donald Trump and his top deputies have started their final public push to get the “big, beautiful bill” over the finish line as the Senate struggles to finish up the legislation.

Stephen Miller, Trump’s top policy aide, appeared on Fox News Channel’s “Hannity” Monday night, about 12 hours into the Senate “vote-a-rama,” to angrily rebut criticisms of the bill and fiercely defend its contents.

“I am sick and tired of the lies about this bill that have been perpetrated by the opportunists who are trying to make a name for themselves. This is the most conservative bill of my lifetime.”

Around that time, White House budget director Russ Vought took apparent aim at deficit hawks concerned about the expanding costs of the Senate version of the megabill in an X post. He embraced the Senate’s “current policy baseline” accounting, zeroing out the cost of extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts.

“Remember, those saying that the Senate bill increases deficits are comparing it to a projection where spending is eternal, and tax relief sunsets,” he said. “That is a Leftist presupposition, and thankfully the Senate refused to let the bill be scored that way.”

Shortly before midnight, Vice President JD Vance also weighed in on X, arguing that the megabill’s border security and immigration provisions alone made it worthwhile.

“Everything else — the CBO score, the proper baseline, the minutiae of the Medicaid policy — is immaterial compared to the ICE money and immigration enforcement provisions,” he wrote.

Then, at 12:01 a.m., Trump himself posted to Truth Social: “Republicans, the One Big Beautiful Bill, perhaps the greatest and most important of its kind in history, gives the largest Tax Cuts and Border Security ever, Jobs by the Millions, Military/Vets increases, and so much more. The failure to pass means a whopping 68% Tax increase, the largest in history!!!”

Meanwhile, the Senate kept voting, with no final deal yet in sight.

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