Congress

The Senate megabill is on a collision course with House fiscal hawks

Published

12 months ago

June 30, 2025

House fiscal hawks are looking at the math underlying Senate Republicans’ sprawling domestic policy legislation, and they don’t like what they see.

As Senate Republicans try to muscle President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” for final passage, they’re on track to violate a budget framework brokered between House fiscal hawks and Speaker Mike Johnson. Under that framework, if the GOP piles on tax cuts over $4 trillion, they’d need to match them dollar-for-dollar with additional spending cuts beyond the $1.5 trillion in the House-passed bill.

“The Senate version adds $651 billion to the deficit — and that’s before interest costs, which nearly double the total,” said the House Freedom Caucus in a Monday afternoon post on X. “The Senate must make major changes and should at least be in the ballpark of compliance with the agreed upon House budget framework.”

It’s a wonky hill to die on, but dozens of House conservatives insisted on the deal before smoothing the megabill’s path through their chamber. Johnson at one point told the conservatives they could go after his gavel if he didn’t hold up the deal — what some of the holdouts considered a “blood oath.”

If the House hawks stand by the deal and the Senate bill doesn’t change appreciably during the final amendment vote marathon that got underway Monday, it could force GOP leaders to “conference” the legislation between the two chambers — likely delaying the bill’s passage beyond Trump’s deadline of July 4.

Now compounding concerns for House GOP leaders, who have ordered members back to Washington to start voting on the bill Wednesday morning, billionaire Elon Musk sent new volleys of criticism at Trump’s marquee legislation Monday over the bill’s deficit impact.

“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” said Musk on X on Monday. “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”

The House fiscal hawks have been crystal-clear about their fiscal red lines, though many now privately worry that they could end up getting jammed by Senate Republicans — and by Trump — with a far spendier bill. Johnson on Monday would not address whether the pending Senate bill could pass the House but told reporters he’s long advised Senate GOP leaders to hew as close to the House version as possible.

There’s “a lot of game left to play,” he added.

Notably, a group of 38 House Republicans led by Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) wrote Senate Majority Leader John Thune in early June warning that any changes to the GOP megabill needed to adhere to the fiscal framework laid out by the House. Under that plan, if the GOP includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts in their bill, then they would need to scrounge up at least $2 trillion in spending cuts.

It’s already looking to be a far cry from what Senate Republicans hope to pass in the coming hours.

According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the Senate’s plan includes around $4.45 trillion of tax cuts versus the $3.8 trillion in tax cuts passed by the House. But the spending cuts contemplated by the Senate GOP wouldn’t come close to making up the difference, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the other official budget scorer on Capitol Hill.

CBO estimates the Senate plan includes around $1.5 trillion in mandatory spending cuts, but that amount is reduced by around $300 billion in one-time investments in border funding and national security policy.

“The Senate bill is currently out of compliance with the budget framework by $651 billion, which is adjusted for dynamic revenue from higher economic growth,” said Paul Winfree, CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center and a top economic official during Trump’s first administration, in a text. “I think it will be very important to get that number closer to $0 to avoid conference.”

Senate Republicans in many ways made steeper cuts to Medicaid than the House, which would have otherwise helped rectify the difference.

But between $200 and $300 billion in spending cuts included in the House-passed bill were knocked out because they didn’t comply with Senate budget rules. The chamber’s parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has been in constant talks with Senate Republican and Democratic staff about whether provisions in the legislation are fit for the filibuster-skirting reconciliation process.

“What we’ve been told is somewhere around $250 billion, because I’ve heard $300 and I’ve heard [$200], so I’m gonna split the difference,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) of the sidelined spending cuts.

Mullin added that House Republicans should look at the score of tax cuts under the so-called current policy baseline, which assumes that trillions of dollars of expiring tax cuts would be extended.

“I think it’s up to the House how they want to look at this, because they can go in two different directions,” said Mullin. “If you go underneath current law, then you have a deficit. If you go into current policy, you actually have a surplus of $507 billion.”

Still, prominent Republicans such as Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and conservative firebrand Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) have argued that Senate Republicans still need to do the math as laid out in the House budget, regardless of which baseline they use.

Rep. Keith Self, another Texas Republican, wrote Monday on X that senators are “completely ignoring” the House budget framework. “This isn’t just reckless,” he wrote, “it’s fiscally criminal.”

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

Congress

Tom Kean Jr., absent for months, to hold fundraiser on the day of his return

Published

17 minutes ago

June 25, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Next Tuesday, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. — missing from action for more than three months due to an unspecified medical condition — is scheduled to make his return to his official duties in Congress. Later that same day, he’ll be returning to the campaign fundraising circuit, too.

According to an invitation shared with Blue Light News, a reception in support of Kean, a top Democratic target this fall, has been scheduled for the evening of June 30. Few other details are known about the fundraiser; Kean’s spokespeople declined to comment, though they did not deny the event’s existence.

Kean also has at least four more fundraisers scheduled for later in the summer and fall, according to a schedule reviewed by Blue Light News. That’s far from abnormal for a politician in a competitive race, but in the context of Kean’s lengthy absence, it’s an indication that the congressmember is indeed fully committed to his reelection campaign, as he’s repeatedly asserted.

A former state legislator in New Jersey who unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2022, the 57-year-old Kean last cast a vote on March 5, 112 days ago. His office said on March 20 that he was “addressing a personal health matter,” an explanation that has been reiterated with scant additional details for months since then, allowing the mystery of his disappearance to quickly spiral from a local curiosity into a national news story.

Last week, Kean spokesperson Harrison Neely said he would be back on June 30, and would provide more details then on what’s been ailing him. The New York Times’ Tracey Tully spoke with Kean in person at his Westfield home yesterday, but learned few additional details about his condition.

During Kean’s absence, Democrats in his 7th Congressional District have endured an expensive primary contest and landed on a nominee, former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett, who’s been touted by national Democrats as a star recruit. Bennett herself has largely steered clear of attacking Kean over his medical woes, but an allied outside group recently began an ad campaign excoriating his missed votes.

Kean’s fundraising, too, has taken a hit during his time away from the campaign trail. Bennett outraised Kean by more than $100,000 in the fundraising period that covered April and early May, her first time doing so, though much of that money had to be immediately poured back into her Democratic primary campaign.

The congressmember’s June 30 fundraiser gives him a chance to start catching back up with Bennett on day one of his return, but it’s also providing fodder for his Democratic critics.

“Tom Kean Jr. has time to trade stocks and fundraise with his wealthy donors, but hasn’t found the time to be transparent with his constituents about why he’s been missing from work for months while taking a taxpayer salary,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Eli Cousin said in a statement. “He represents everything that people hate about corrupt career politicians.”

Congress

Hispanic Caucus members are devastated their chair lost his primary. Will they welcome his successor?

Published

32 minutes ago

June 25, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Still reeling from their leader’s electoral defeat earlier this week, members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus are warily preparing to welcome his successor — with some conditions.

Darializa Avila Chevalier — a Democratic Socialist who ousted Hispanic Caucus Chair Adriano Espaillat in Tuesday’s New York primary and is expected to win the general election — plans to join the coalition currently composed of 42 Democrats across the party’s ideological spectrum.

“ICE kidnappings have sent school absenteeism rates skyrocketing across New York City since immigrant parents are too afraid to send their children to school,” Avalia Chevalier said in a statement Thursday. “I’m proud to join the CHC on Day One in office and stand alongside Latino leaders to fight back, push a bold agenda for our families and make sure NY-13’s voice is heard.“

The Hispanic Caucus is expected to be at the center of consequential policy fights in the next Congress as Democrats continue to battle the Trump administration on any number of fronts, including immigration. If Democrats take the majority, the CHC will look to assert its agenda even further, including by seeking to influence the likely speaker, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.

But CHC members will demand that Avila Chevalier be a team player. Notwithstanding that she is coming into Congress having taken out a beloved incumbent, she has embraced positions during the campaign, and earlier on social media, that put her at odds with even some of her more liberal future colleagues.

She has, for instance, called for the abolition of Israel as well as all forms of policing, borders and private property.

“If she joins and is aligned with all our priorities and all our legislative programs, we would welcome her,” said Hispanic Caucus Whip Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas).

Some leading CHC members hope Avila Chevalier will be a productive contributor.

“The more voices that we have, the better and stronger both our larger caucus and the CHC is,” said caucus policy Vice Chair Rep. Rob Menendez (D-N.J.).

Should she be turned away from joining the Hispanic Caucus, though, there would be some precedent.

Espaillat himself tried to join the Congressional Black Caucus after running against a founding member, the late-Democratic Rep. Charles Rangel, in 2012 and 2014. When Rangel retired in 2016, Espaillat ran for the seat a third time — against Rangel’s preferred successor. When Espaillat prevailed, the CBC denied his attempt to join their ranks.

The all-Democratic CHC also previously denied a lawmaker from joining the group in 2017: Then-Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican who was locked in a longstanding feud with the group.

Current members aren’t expecting any similar fireworks with Avila Chevalier. Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.) — the chair of BOLD PAC, the CHC’s campaign arm — said in a Tuesday statement that “Democrats win when we move forward together.”

“Our commitment is to continue the work Adriano has led with the same energy and determination,” Sanchez continued, “and we look forward to standing with Darializa Avila Chevalier in the fight ahead.”

Progressive Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) said “it would be a shame if there are members of Congress who can’t see past respecting a democratic process of an election and not welcome her. I certainly will, and I’m going to do everything in my power over the next six months to help her prepare.”

But Espaillat, when asked Thursday whether he thinks Avila Chevalier should be a part of the CHC, would only say, “That’s another question. I’ll answer it next week.”

Though he won’t have a vote in Congress next year to deny her entry, the decade-long House veteran is respected by his colleagues and considered a mentor to many CHC members, and loyalty could play a role in how Avila Chevalier is received inside the caucus.

“It’s a real loss,” said former Hispanic Caucus Chair Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) of Espaillat’s departure.

The Hispanic Caucus, meanwhile, will not only be contending with a new, potentially polarizing member, but having to select a chair for the next Congress; though CHC chairs typically only serve one term, there won’t be an immediate predecessor close by to ease the transition.

Multiple Hispanic Caucus members said this week they expect the current vice chair, Rep. Darren Soto (D-Fla.), to ascend. However, several CHC Democrats also acknowledged that Soto is facing a challenging reelection bid in his newly redrawn district, which could render a potential promotion moot.

Other senior members of CHC leadership include Menendez; Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.), who serves as vice chair of communications; and Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.), the current vice chair of engagement.

Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) is also a member of CHC leadership, but he was previously the chair. Garcia, the whip, said she isn’t interested in the caucus’ top spot.

At least one former chair, retiring Rep. Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.), said he hopes the group embraces the CHC’s next generation of members.

“All of the incoming members should be welcomed there,” he said. “The reality is that they will be a part of this new leadership. They represent the popular will in those districts, and they need to be incorporated as much as possible into the process.”

Congress

Trump calls on House GOP hard-liners to end floor blockade

Published

2 hours ago

June 25, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

President Donald Trump instructed a band of his GOP hard-liner allies to end their House floor blockade with multiple major bills at risk of being derailed.

“House Republicans should unify, and stop voting down ‘Rules’ or, threatening to do so,” Trump posted after meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson Thursday. He added: “No more grandstanding, please!”

“Rules” are procedural measures used by House leaders to control the chamber floor. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and her allies said this week they would vote down those measures until the Senate passes the SAVE America Act, the stalled GOP elections bill.

Trump has embraced hardball tactics to advance SAVE America Act himself — including by refusing to sign a bipartisan housing bill this week. But Luna’s floor blockade has risked collateral damage, including passage of fiscal 2027 appropriations bills and the annual Pentagon policy bill.

Asked about Trump’s post, Luna said she has filed an amendment to the defense bill that would attach the elections bill. Doing so would almost certainly kill its chances of passing in the Senate, where Democrats could filibuster the bill.

The House Rules Committee is set to meet Monday to consider amendments and prepare the bill for the floor.

Trump, meanwhile, did not address the housing bill he refused to sign this week, but Johnson said in brief comments to reporters after returning from the White House that he intended to send the measure to Trump. That would set up a signature, a veto or passive enactment of the bill if it is not signed within 10 days.

“We’re on exactly the same page,” Johnson said. “Congress has work to do, and that’s what we’re going to do.”