Politics
Zohran dominates in new poll
With help from Amira McKee
CUOMO CONUNDRUM: Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani looks to be cruising toward victory, capturing 50 percent of the vote in a new general election poll of the mayor’s race paid for by his allies.
In the five-way contest, Andrew Cuomo trailed him with 22 percent, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa came in third at 13 percent and Mayor Eric Adams captured 7 percent of the vote among likely voters. Attorney Jim Walden received 1 percent.
“Our independent poll — the first in this cycle to be offered in four languages and to drill down into national origin and religious denomination — makes one thing clear: Black union households, young Jews, South Asians, East Asians, Latinos, and New Yorkers in every income bracket are all on the same Zohran Mamdani bus, and it’s headed in the direction of the Democratic Party’s future,” said Amit Singh Bagga, the principal of Public Progress Solutions and a veteran of federal, city, and state government.
Bagga’s firm designed and analyzed the poll along with Adam Carlson’s Zenith Research. It was funded through private donations to Bagga, who advised Mamdani’s campaign during the primary on setting up an administration, and was fielded by Verasight.
It quizzed 1,453 registered voters — 1,021 of whom were “likely” voters — and was conducted between July 16 and 24, concluding four days before a gunman walked into a Midtown Manhattan office building on Monday and killed four people, including one NYPD officer.
Mamdani was celebrating his wedding in Uganda at the time. He’s scheduled to be back in the city Wednesday morning.
According to the poll, even if the former governor could achieve his unlikely goal of neutralizing the rest of the field to face Mamdani one-on-one, the democratic socialist assemblymember is still up 52-40 in a head-to-head matchup with likely voters. But Mamdani’s head-to-head lead shrinks to just 3 points with registered voters.
And it’d be worse for Adams — Mamdani clocks him 59-32 with likely voters and 55-32 with registered voters.
Three months out from the Nov. 4 election, Mamdani is in a commanding position. Just 32 percent of likely voters say they would not consider voting for him, while Cuomo is at 60 percent and Adams at 68 percent.
“With a majority of voters saying they wouldn’t even consider voting for Cuomo, Adams’ net favorability being lower than Trump’s, and Sliwa mired in the low teens, it’s hard to see how anyone can put a serious scare into Mamdani in a split field,” Carlson said in a statement.
The survey is the first significant public poll after the ex-governor announced he’d mount a campaign after losing the primary.
Respondents were surveyed via a hybrid online panel, the firms said. The poll had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
Cuomo took issue with the poll’s model assumption that Mamdani’s campaign would boost turnout among younger and college-educated voters as it did in the primary.
“The only thing that I think is material for accuracy is what the poll says about the registered voters,” Cuomo told Playbook. “As we learned in the primary, when you’re assuming turnout levels, there are many variables. In the primary, they underestimated the number of young people. You have to make another set of assumptions on the general. Some people will assume you’re going to see a young voter surge. Some people believe you’re going to see an anti-socialist surge. Some people think you’re going to see a pro-Israel surge. So who knows?”
Mamdani still holds a 16-point lead over Cuomo among registered voters, according to the poll. Mamdani gets 42 percent in a five-way race, followed by Cuomo at 26, Sliwa at 12, Adams at 7 and Walden at 1. — Jeff Coltin & Jason Beeferman
HEASTIE WILL VOTE DEMOCRAT (WE ASSUME): Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie implied he is likely to vote for Mamdani — but continues to avoid explicitly saying the democratic socialist will earn a spot on his ballot.
“Do we ask people who they vote for?” Heastie quipped when a reporter asked him this afternoon who he would vote for in the general election. “Listen, I’m a Democrat, and I support Democrats. I’ve never voted for someone that’s not a Democrat.”
The speaker was in Schenectady today for a visit to a local musical theater in need of state investment.
When asked if his record of voting strictly along the Democratic line could change for the upcoming mayoral election, Heastie chuckled. After a brief silence, his press aide cut in to solicit other questions from reporters.
The speaker did say he is in frequent contact with the mayoral nominee.
“Zohran and I have had loads of communications,” Heastie said. “What people have to understand is that when I’m the speaker of [a] body, I have to communicate concerns of the body, and Zohran and I have communicated what I think he needs to do to get me there.” — Jason Beeferman
GUN CONTROL PLEAS: New York Democrats pleaded for Congress to approve tighter gun control laws in the wake of a Midtown shooting that left six people dead — including an NYPD officer.
There’s little chance any measures will pass given Republicans holding all levers of power in Washington.
Yet Gov. Kathy Hochul and Heastie on Tuesday urged national action — a tacit acknowledgement that the state’s comparatively strict gun laws can’t stop someone obtaining a weapon in another state. The alleged shooter reportedly traveled to New York from Nevada.
“We need a national awakening here. People need to be talking about this once again and it shouldn’t just happen in the wake of a tragedy like this. It should be an ongoing conversation where we force the Republicans to understand lives could be saved if we only do what’s smart and common sense,” Hochul told BLN.
The governor pushed through a package of gun law changes after the U.S. Supreme Court determined New York’s concealed carry measure was unconstitutional. In the wake of a Buffalo mass shooting in 2022, Hochul won approval of tighter restrictions on gun ownership, including raising the age to buy a firearm from 18 to 21.
Heastie echoed Hochul’s sentiment with reporters in Schenectady.
“When is this country going to wake up on allowing citizens to have these military-style weapons?” he said. “No other industrial nation in this world allows the citizens to do it.” — Nick Reisman
AMEND TO THAT: Heastie is ready to change New York’s redistricting laws as red states move this year to redraw their House lines.
“At this point we should look to try to see what we can do to counteract Republican actions,” Heastie told reporters today.
There are very few options for New York Democrats to impact next year’s election, though, even as Hochul last week signaled she is open to making changes to the state’s House lines.
One potential long-term response is a constitutional amendment — a multi-year effort that ends with a voter referendum — that would allow New York to redistrict in the middle of the decade if another state undertakes the process.
Heastie said he is open to passing the measure, which was introduced by state Sen. Mike Gianaris and Assemblymember Micah Lasher, Blue Light News first reported on Monday.
“It doesn’t have to be done now; it can be done in the following year,” he added. — Nick Reisman
DELGADO WANTS SPECIAL SESSION: Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, a gubernatorial primary candidate, is calling for the state Legislature to hold a special session to protect against incoming federal cuts — but Heastie indicated an early return to Albany for lawmakers is unlikely.
Delgado is slated to appear with state Sen. Kristen Gonzalez and Assemblymembers George Alvarez, Amanda Septimo, Phara Souffrant Forrest and Claire Valdez on Thursday in Manhattan to make a public plea for a special session.
It’s a sign of support from the group of lefty lawmakers even as the vast majority of Democratic lawmakers are leery of backing the lieutenant governor over Hochul.
The event is organized by Citizen Action, VOCAL-NY, Make the Road and other left-leaning advocacy groups.
Still, Heastie indicated this afternoon a special session is unlikely.
“We haven’t had any discussions about that,” he said.
While it’s early, Heastie said his “biggest priority” for the upcoming legislative session will be to “limit as best we can the damage that Republicans have done to us that they keep trying to sugarcoat.” — Jason Beeferman
— SINCE 2000: The mass shooting in a Midtown building Monday night was New York’s deadliest shooting in 25 years. (New York Times)
— CONTESTED BALLOTS: The New York City Board of Elections is set to certify the results of a GOP primary for a Brooklyn City Council seat Tuesday amid allegations of voter fraud. (New York Daily News)
— ‘YOU AND YOUR EGO’: Cuomo slammed Adams as a “spoiler” driven by his own ego while speaking with reporters at the Columbian Day Parade. (New York Post)
— MTA OUTAGE: A slew of subway lines were delayed and suspended today as a power outage wreaked havoc on the system. (Gothamist)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
Top Democrats are using 2026 as a launching pad for potential 2028 presidential runs.
From progressive Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) to the more moderate Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Democrats have sought to shape their party by endorsing in contested primaries this year. They’ve traveled the country to raise their own profiles and elevate candidates they see as the future of the party.
Their strategies have not always been successful — but they have been revealing: Some endorsed against incumbents based on generational or ideological differences. Some weighed in early to give candidates credence, while others waited until the last minute to help them close out the race. And some have focused on purple districts and other competitive races that could determine control of Congress in the fall.
“If you’re thinking about running for president, you need allies,” said Mike Nellis, a Democratic strategist whose firm works with House and Senate campaigns across the country. “The more that you’re out there, trying to get people elected and making a meaningful difference, voters are going to remember that.”
Appearing with candidates on the campaign trail is an opportunity for potential 2028 candidates to create social media buzz, Nellis noted. Traveling gives them opportunities to connect with donors and elected officials across the country who might be helpful for a future presidential run and pressure test how messages work in various parts of the country. For those not up for an election of their own this year, it’s also a way to stay relevant.
Some potential presidential candidates have been particularly prolific, while others have been more cautious or stuck to their home states, according to a Blue Light News review of endorsements in House, Senate and gubernatorial races. And a handful mostly stayed out of this year’s primaries.
The most prolific endorsers
Few members of Congress threw out as many endorsements as Khanna.
The California representative, who has said he is “seriously considering” running for president in 2028, endorsed in more than a dozen races, often serving as one of the earliest national backers of progressive candidates such as Kat Abughazaleh in Illinois’ 9th District and Analilia Mejia in New Jersey’s 11th District. Abughazaleh lost her race, while Mejia won.
Khanna also backed left-wing candidates that other national progressives shied away from, most notably democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race.
His record is mixed. Hong lost and former Maine Senate Democratic nominee Graham Platner, who Khanna stood by despite a series of controversies, had to drop out after winning a primary but facing an allegation of sexual assault, which he denies — at which point Khanna, like many others, withdrew his endorsement.
Khanna told Blue Light News he likes “endorsing early when an insurgent candidate is a bit of a longshot because that is when they need the endorsement most.” He looks for candidates who support Medicare for All and taxing billionaires and are opposed to foreign wars.
“My philosophy is to give those who are outsiders and have to scrape their way in — like I had to — a fair shot,” he said in a text message.
Ocasio-Cortez also endorsed a large slate of progressive candidates, but she’s been more selective than Khanna — a difference in approach that’s sparked some infighting within the Bernie Sanders wing of the progressive movement.
Critics have argued she’s played it too safe. But her selectivity has also meant she avoided high-profile stumbles.
Ocasio-Cortez has positioned herself as more of a closer this cycle. In California’s 22nd District, a battleground in the Central Valley, Khanna endorsed progressive professor Randy Villegas last September, while Ocasio-Cortez dropped her endorsement in May — about a month before the primary. Villegas ultimately defeated a moderate lawmaker backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and is among the progressives who will now try to knock off an incumbent Republican in November.
Ocasio-Cortez actively campaigned for progressives in several contested battleground primaries, rallying with Sam Forstag in Montana and alongside Sanders with Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly won the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan.
She recently threw her support behind Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), who faces a primary challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton next week.
The other most frequent endorser among potential Democratic 2028ers this cycle played in a different lane. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a moderate, has been active on the campaign trail, visiting most presidential battleground states and endorsing in key Senate primaries, including Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota’s Democratic Senate primary — which she lost to progressive Peggy Flanagan — and state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa’s Democratic Senate primary, which he won.
Buttigieg, who has said he is “more inclined than not” to run for president again in 2028, has also notched endorsement wins with Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s battleground 3rd District and former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin in Connecticut, who defeated incumbent Rep. John Larson earlier this month.
Most governors stuck close to home
Governors eyeing White House runs kept their endorsements closer to home, largely trying to play kingmaker within state lines as they face their own reelection fights.
The local focus allows them to flex their influence while avoiding criticism for nationalizing their own states’ politics. And they’ve campaigned aggressively for their chosen candidates — political power plays that not only strengthen their standing on home turf but could also serve as springboards for national bids.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker pumped $10 million into a super PAC supporting his lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton, in the contentious Senate primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, and appeared alongside her on the campaign trail. He described the race as “personal” to him; Stratton won by 7 points.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro expended significant political capital in one of Democrats’ top House targets in his state, helping recruit longtime ally and firefighter union chief Bob Brooks into the race against GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the state’s swingy 7th District and then working to elevate him out of a four-way primary. Shapiro fundraised for Brooks, cut an ad for him and joined him on the stump ahead of Election Day; Brooks won by nearly 20 points.
Shapiro was also one of a handful of Democratic attorneys-general-turned-governors who backed Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser in his gubernatorial primary against Sen. Michael Bennet. Weiser won by 14 points.
In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore backed state Del. Adrian Boafo in the crowded race to replace retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer and boosted Rep. April McClain Delaney in her bruising primary against former Rep. David Trone — including recording a robocall on her behalf. An adviser to Moore said the governor had preexisting relationships with both candidates he endorsed, and that he prioritizes local and in-state races as he seeks to make endorsement decisions that will benefit his constituents.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer also stuck to her state, only really playing in Michigan’s high-profile Senate race. She endorsed Rep. Haley Stevens in the final stretch of the race, although she wasn’t active on the campaign trail in the same way Pritzker was for Stratton or Shapiro for Brooks.
Disagreements among moderates
Even among candidates occupying a more centrist lane heading into 2028, there was room for disagreement.
Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), a former national security official, endorsed retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, a moderate in Michigan’s 7th district, which she previously represented. Several Democrats had hoped she’d back former foreign service officer Bridget Brink, a fellow moderate — and as they split the centrist vote, progressive William Lawrence ascended to the nomination in the toss-up district instead.
A person familiar with Slotkin’s thinking, granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal deliberations, said that she connected better with Maasdam and saw him as a stronger general election candidate.
The person also acknowledged that Slotkin’s decision to wait to issue her endorsement until three weeks before the primary didn’t leave enough time for voters and party leaders to coalesce around Maasdam.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) rolled out a slate of endorsements of veteran candidates, mostly for the general election, but has backed a range of other Democrats in primaries. That includes DCCC-backed political novice Marlene Galan-Woods in his home state, only for her to lose the primary in Arizona’s 1st District.
“As Navy combat veteran and former NASA astronaut, Mark Kelly knows the country is best served by leaders who represent their communities and bring a range of different backgrounds and experiences to the job. It’s why he’s endorsed candidates in competitive primaries and campaigned for Democrats up and down the ballot,” Kelly spokesperson Marisol Samayoa said.
In next week’s primary in New Hampshire’s 1st District, Kelly is supporting Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of his Senate colleague Jeanne Shaheen, praising her as a “fearless leader” who would stand up to President Donald Trump.
New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill also went on a recent endorsement spree focused on military veterans. But she’s backing Maura Sullivan in the race against Shaheen next week, along with Rep. Seth Moulton in his primary against Sen. Ed Markey, who has gotten backing from progressives including Ocasio-Cortez.
“The fight isn’t moderates versus DSA candidates,” Sherrill told POLITICO earlier this month. “The fight is if we are going to have strong people in the Democratic Party that are going to actually make change to make people’s lives better, or people who you can just expect more of the same.”
The ones who (mostly) sat it out
Not every potential presidential candidate was eager to endorse this cycle.
Even after working to redraw boundaries in his home state to create more safely blue seats, California Gov. Gavin Newsom stayed out of the federal races — and the contest to succeed him. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear endorsed after primaries in his home state were complete. Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who is considering his own White House bid, also eschewed endorsements.
And Kamala Harris declined to weigh in on the majority of competitive primaries because of her high profile, according to a person familiar with her thinking who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. The exceptions were “based on the closeness” of the former vice president’s relationships with the people she did endorse.
Harris recorded a robocall for Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Texas Senate primary before Crockett eventually lost to James Talarico. She backed Del. Stacey Plaskett ahead of her U.S. Virgin Islands’ gubernatorial primary victory earlier this month. She has also endorsed Dan Koh in next week’s primary for Massachusetts’ 6th District.
All three candidates have close ties to Harris. Crockett served as co-chair of Harris’ 2024 presidential campaign, Plaskett endorsed Harris when she first ran for president in the 2020 primary, and Koh is a former Biden administration official.
Iowa’s last Democrat on how he can win in Trump country
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Alaska GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan can’t shake his same-name challenger.
Retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan punched a ticket out of the state’s top-four, all-party primary early Wednesday morning. He could now play spoiler in a high-stakes Senate clash between the Republican senator and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola that could help swing control of the upper chamber.
Republicans fought and failed to keep Dan J. Sullivan off the primary ballot, arguing he was a Democratic plant designed to boost Peltola. Both Dan J. Sullivan and Peltola’s campaign have denied any coordination.
The senator’s allies have already taken steps to mitigate the second Sullivan’s potential vote siphoning, in some cases running ads using the senator’s middle initial to help differentiate between the same-named candidates.
Supporters of the state’s ranked-choice voting system, which kicks in for the general election, argue the process helps curtail the spoiler effect. But the presence of other candidates could still skew the results of the battleground race. Outside groups flooded the primary with more than $2 million to boost myriad fringe candidates — and could do so again ahead of November.
It’s not smooth sailing for Peltola, either, as she wages an uphill battle to flip a red seat in a state President Donald Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024. She recently replaced her campaign manager in a staffing shakeup ahead of the primary, among other internal moves.
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