Politics
Working-class voters think Dems are “woke” and “weak,” new research finds
Working-class voters see Democrats as “woke, weak and out-of-touch” and six in 10 have a negative view of the party, concluded a frank internal assessment of the hole the party finds itself in.
The nine-month, 21-state research project is the latest in a wave of post-mortems and data dives aimed at solving the Democratic Party’s electoral challenges after their sweeping losses in 2024. It was funded by Democracy Matters, a nonprofit aligned with flagship Democratic super PAC American Bridge 21st Century, and backed by months of polling, dozens of focus groups and message testing.
American Bridge’s project focused exclusively on working-class voters, shedding light on a once-core constituency for Democrats that’s drifted away from the party over the last decade. And the initial feedback is grim: Working-class voters don’t see Democrats as strong or patriotic, while Republicans represent safety and strength for them. These voters “can’t name what Democrats stand for, other than being against [Donald] Trump,” according to the report.
The Democratic brand “is suffering,” as working-class voters see the party as “too focused on social issues and not nearly focused enough on the economic issues that impact every one, every day,” the report said.
“We lost people we used to get [in 2024], so why did we lose them? Why don’t we go ask them,” said Mitch Landrieu, co-chair of Democracy Matters and senior adviser to then-President Joe Biden. “They said what they thought about us and it was painful to hear … They feel forgotten, left out, and that their issues are not prioritized by the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.”
He added, “they want somebody focused first, second and third, on their economic stress.”
Landrieu and other aides will brief congressional members on the findings in the coming weeks. They’re also airing one of the ads they tested as a part of the project in Virginia, boosting Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for governor. The ad, backed by a six-figure buy, features a 70-year-old woman who said she still works and lives paycheck to paycheck.
Other center-left groups’ post-mortems drew similar conclusions about the depths of the problem Democrats face in repairing their brand, as well as urging their party to side-step social issues and prioritize economic concerns. But even as the report calls for a proactive policy agenda, it’s not clear what that detailed policy agenda might be.
The project was conducted by Impact Research, GBAO and HIT Strategies over a 9 month period, surveying 3,000 working-class voters from across the political spectrum. It also included 39 focus groups with 400 working-class voters and other research.
The report argues Democrats still have a path to regain the support of blue-collar voters they have been losing to Republicans, from resetting their perceived priorities to leaning into issues that voters trust them on, including health care and housing. They point to Trump’s failure to bring down costs since resuming office this year as proof that “this group is very much up for grabs,” said Margie Omero, a Democratic pollster who worked on the project.
“They are not convinced that what they are getting from Republicans is alleviating the stress they’re experiencing and Democrats can win them over,” said Molly Murphy, another Democratic pollster who also worked on the project.
But warning signs remain for Democrats heading into next year’s midterms.
Working-class voters “don’t fully recognize the extent of the harm Trump’s budget bill is causing,” the report said. Instead, they are “incredulous as to why Republicans would seemingly make a bad system worse.” The report acknowledged that “Republicans start off on stronger ground on these issues, but Democrats can reclaim them when they vividly illustrate how their plans differ from Republicans’, particularly on health care.”
Trump’s job approval rating among the surveyed working-class voters, who backed him by 7 points in 2024, is even. Still, these same voters only gave Republicans a 2-point edge heading into 2026, per the data from Democracy Matters.
Democrats’ must focus on affordability, the report emphasized, though its messaging suggestions clash with the strategy of progressives, differing on who to blame for economic strain. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) drew enormous crowds when they barnstormed the country this spring on their “Fighting Oligarchy” tour, attacking billionaires and “the 1 percent.”
But in the report, their surveys found “a candidate focused on taking on big corporations and the wealthy” received 43 percent, while a “candidate focused on fixing the economy so those who work hard can get ahead” earned 52 percent.
“Not one person in all of our focus groups mentioned the word ‘oligarchy,’” Landrieu said.
These respondents aspire to wealth, Landrieu added, but “absolutely felt like wealthy people who were using the tax system to not pay their fair share was a very serious problem.”
Murphy said their data prompted them to “come out of this wanting to use a little bit of caution” when talking about the economy. “Not to be prescriptive in saying, ‘don’t say take on billionaires’ or use populist messaging,” she added, “but [working-class voters] need to know Democrats respect people who build wealth, and we’re not looking to punish them.” .
The report identified two areas of particular weakness for Democrats: transgender rights and immigration. Both topics dominated Republican messaging in 2024, particularly Trump’s ad that included the tagline, “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you.”
The research argued the “strongest Dem messages on trans issues focus on keeping the government out of medical professionals’ decisions, followed by prioritizing the economy” and it urged candidates: “Don’t say Republicans need to stop attacking LGBT people. Instead, say everyone — Republicans and Democrats — need to stop obsessing over this issue.”
But it also found one-third of independents would be “much more likely” to support Democrats if they said “transgender women should not play in women’s sports,” the second highest testing message in swaying these voters.
Democrats have split on how to talk about transgender issues. Some, like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, broke with his party to criticize allowing transgender athletes to participate in female college and youth sports, calling it “an issue of fairness” on his podcast last March. In contrast, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker blasted “do-nothing” Democrats in a speech last spring for “blam[ing] our losses on our defense of Black people, of trans kids, of immigrants — instead of their own lack of guts and gumption.”
The report included a detailed media consumption study, finding that working-class voters are “consuming less news and using YouTube and playing video games more than the overall electorate.” They rely on YouTube, TikTok and Facebook for news, and they’re more likely to use TikTok specifically for news than the overall electorate.
They also are constantly tuned into audio throughout the day, be it radio, streaming or podcasts.
“We heard time and again in the groups that these are not low-info voters and they’re not traditional news readers, but they’re getting inundated with information,” said Ryan Berni, a Democratic consultant who advised on the project. “It’s almost a slur to call them low-info voters. They’re getting a lot, but not from Democrat-aligned sources.”
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Politics
From Iran to Paris weather: Alleged prediction market violations start stacking up
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are quickly becoming an economic and political force, accruing multi-billion dollar valuations and drawing support from key officials in the Trump administration.
But backlash to the platforms is spreading — in Washington and in state capitals — with accusations of insider trading following White House military action in Venezuela and Iran and dogging several midterm election campaigns.
Fault lines over who is in charge of regulation are already emerging, with several frontline Democrats pushing to rein in the companies. In March, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order barring appointed state officials from using insider information to place bets on prediction markets. Regulation discussions are ongoing in other states, including Arizona and Massachusetts.
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, meanwhile, is an adviser for both Kalshi and Polymarket. And both companies are spending big to win over the country’s political class, with Polymarket opening a pop-up bar on K Street, among other efforts. Both platforms did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Here are some of the most recent incidents that have piqued the anxiety of state and federal lawmakers.

The capture of Nicolás Maduro
Federal authorities on Thursday announced the arrest of a U.S. Army special forces soldier they accused of using confidential information to place more than a dozen bets on Polymarket tied to the January capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old soldier who helped plan the Caracas operation, spent roughly $33,000 on the bets, earning more than $400,000 in payouts, the Justice Department said. Authorities charged him with unlawfully using confidential government information for personal gain, among other alleged offenses.
The operation saw U.S. forces capture Maduro overnight in his bedroom, before flying the longtime Venezuelan leader to New York City to face narco-terrorism charges.
Van Dyke’s alleged actions took advantage of that mission, the government officials argue.
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a statement Thursday. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”

U.S.-Iran ceasefire
In the hours before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran in early April, at least 50 newly created Polymarket accounts spent thousands betting on a temporary peace, according to an Associated Press report.
One account, created just 12 minutes before Trump’s Truth Social announcement, made $48,500 on a $31,908 bet that a ceasefire would occur. Another cashed out for a profit of $200,000, the AP reported.
Polymarket also took heat after the U.S.’s initial strikes on Iran, with “six suspected insiders” placing bets on the attacks just before they took place, according to Blockchain company Bubblemaps, taking home more than $1 million.
Israeli authorities, meanwhile, charged two people in February for using classified information to place bets about military operations on Polymarket, according to NPR.

Congressional bets
On Wednesday, Kalshi announced that it was suspending three 2026 congressional candidates from the platform for betting on their own races. Minnesota Democrat Matthew Klein, Texas Republican Ezekiel Enriquez and Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran were each given five-year bans and faced fines or penalties ranging from roughly $500 to more than $6,000.
Klein, who is running to replace outgoing House lawmaker Angie Craig in Minnesota’s 2nd District, issued an apology on X.
“This was a mistake, and I apologize,” he wrote. “My experience, like many other Minnesotans, points to the need for clearer rules and regulations for these types of markets.”
Enriquez has not appeared to publicly comment on his wager or suspension.
Moran, a former “FBoy Island” contestant who is running a long-shot bid to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) in Virginia, took a different tack, writing on X that he wanted to be caught.
“I traded $100 on myself, knowing this would happen (also knowing that I wouldn’t be vying for the democratic nomination) and the attention it would create to highlight how this company is destroying young men and as Senator I will go after Kalshi and impose significant penalties on them – 25% – a vice tax – to pay down our national debt,” he said.

Playing with Mother Nature
Several Polymarket traders made thousands of dollars in profits for accurately predicting sudden, anomalous spikes in the temperature at Paris’ Charles De Gaulle airport April 15, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Météo-France, the country’s weather service, is now investigating the incident, which could be tied to tampering.

MrBeast’s editor
In February, Kalshi reported Artem Kaptur, an editor for MrBeast, one of the world’s biggest influencers and most popular YouTube creators, to federal authorities for allegedly trading “on material, non-public information he obtained because of his employment” regarding the celebrity’s YouTube videos.
Kalshi suspended Kaptur from its platform for two years and imposed a financial penalty of more than $20,000. He was fired in March.
“Beast Industries has no tolerance for this behavior, whether by contestants or our own employees,” MrBeast’s company wroteat the time.
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