The Dictatorship
With Trump in a holding pattern on Iran war, allies worry he risks getting boxed in
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trumpis facing warnings from foes and allies alike that he’s getting boxed in on the Iran wasa conflict he sold as a brief military incursion but that has since settled into a holding pattern.
It’s been nearly a week since U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative agreementto extend the ceasefirein the conflict by 60 days and start a new round of talks on Iran’s nuclear programthat required Trump’s sign off.
But Trump has called for unspecified changes to the agreement and Iranian officials — perhaps calculating that the Republican president is reluctant to restart the bombardment after burning through key weapons systems— are showing no signs they’ll give in to new demands.
A series of strikes by the U.S. and Iranthis week has raised fresh concern that the ceasefire could collapse. Trump on Wednesday downplayed the significance.
“It’s a different part of the world,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “You know, I’d say in that part of the world, a ceasefire is when you’re shooting in a more moderate manner.”
The shaky moment follows repeated claims by Trump since a 14-day ceasefirewas agreed to on April 7 — following 38 days of U.S. and Israel bombing of Iran — that a deal is just days away and the Iranian side is begging to come to a settlement. Trump on Wednesday said it was possible something could come together “over the weekend.”
Without an interim settlement in place to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,global energy prices remain elevatedand are adding to anxieties around the world about the impact of rising costs spurred by the three-month conflict on the cost of food, fuel and other goods.
After a string of reports this week that Iran was shutting down talks,Trump told CNBC he “couldn’t care less” if the negotiations had bogged down and even mused they had become “boring.”
There’s anxiety Trump is getting boxed in
There’s growing concern inside the administration and among key advisers and allies that Trump now finds himself in a bind, according to a U.S. official and another person familiar with the administration’s internal deliberations, both of whom spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
He’s buffeted by Democrats seizing on oil prices and warnings from hawkish members of his basethat an early exit from the conflict would amount to capitulation.
Trump is privately hearing from other Republican lawmakers as well as Pentagon officials and Gulf allies that a return to the bombing campaign is a bad idea.
Those advising against returning to military action note that the U.S. has burned through munitions at too fast of a rate. It could take three years to replenish some key weapons systems.
Meanwhile, Gulf allies are worried that Iran will retaliate against them and their critical infrastructure and energy interests and further set back their economies.
At the same time, Trump has bristled at the idea of accepting a deal that resembles the 2015 nuclear agreementbrokered by Democrat Barack Obama’s administration, which restricted Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting international economic sanctions.
Trump during his first term abandoned the pactthat he said had failed to permanently stop Iran’s nuclear program, ignored Iran’s ballistic missile development, and did not penalize Iran for supporting militant proxy groups across the Middle East.
Now, Trump, according to those familiar with internal deliberations, has made clear he feels strongly he can’t make “a bad deal” and is acutely aware that he’s at a moment where he’s at risk of tarnishing his legacy if he missteps.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly dismissed the notion that Trump has been boxed in or that there’s any concern within the administration about the pace of talks.
“These mysterious so-called ‘administration officials’ have no idea what they’re talking about — those actually involved in sensitive discussions know to trust in President Trump, who will always do what is best for U.S. national security,” Kelly said in a statement.
Trump resisted Israel push for Lebanon bombings
Israeli and hawkish allies in Washington have made the case to Trump that a deal at this point would amount to unconditional surrender, urging him to ratchet up economic pressure on Iran and back Israel’s assault on the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.
But Trump earlier this week in a heated call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded Israel stand down, and on Wednesday, Israel and Lebanon said they agreed to renew a ceasefire. Hezbollah was not part of the Israel-Lebanon talks, which have been held at the ambassadorial level in Washington since the beginning of last month.
Remaining in the current status quo with Tehran — neither a full resumption of hostilities nor sealing an interim agreement to restart nuclear talks — is a situation that Iran appears better poised to exploit, argues Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the hawkish Washington think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Despite being the weaker party, Iran appears to be calculating that the longer the holding pattern lasts, the better the chances are they can “box in” Trump, he added.
“Either way, Tehran appears more resolute than ever to not provide Trump with a victory image, hence why it isn’t budging on the battlefield or negotiating table,” Taleblu said.
Holding pattern isn’t helpful for Republicans on the ballot
At the same time, Democrats are trying to capitalize on Trump’s handling of the unpopular warahead of November’s midterm elections. The House of Representatives on Wednesday for the first time passed a symbolic resolution calling for a haltin military action against Iran, with four Republican lawmakers joining Democrats in the rebuke of Trump’s war.
During hours of hearings on Capitol Hillon Tuesday and Wednesday with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Democrats laced into Trump for discounting the economic impact of the conflict on Americans and for failing to anticipate that Iran would shutter the Strait.
In one tense exchange, New Jersey Democratic Sen. Cory Booker pointed to the unsteady ceasefire as a sign that Iran has the upper hand.
“We are the strongest nation on the planet Earth, and we’re in a stalemate with Iran,” Booker said. “And now we’re begging to get back into a deal that you all trashed in the first place.”
Rubio dismissed the criticism, underscoring that Iran has been placed on its heels with the strikes that have taken out multiple layers of senior leadership and left Iran’s economy in shambles.
“There’s no one begging,” Rubio responded. “I don’t know where you’re getting this perception that Iran is stronger.”
Another Democrat, Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, homed in on Trump’s comments last month that voter anxiety about the cost of living was “not even a little bit” of a motivating factor for him to reach a deal to end the war.
The president continues to downplay the rising costs for Americans at the pump and predict that gas prices would fall sharply after the conflict ends.
Christopher Borick, the director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Pennsylvania, said that Democrats running in swing districts around the country are already zeroing in on Trump’s rhetoric on the war’s impact on Americans’ pocketbooks.
“There’s significant risk in having this thing drag on for Republicans,” Borick said. “It’s certainly going to hurt if Trump ends up in a place where the war ends and Iran’s nuclear program is in the same place. But for Republicans in some of these tough swing districts, there’s a case to be made to rip the bandage off now, get some easing in the oil markets and hope there’s enough time for voters to turn the page.”
The Dictatorship
AP source says George Santos reported to prosecutors over suspicious Kalshi trades
NEW YORK (AP) — A prediction market reported former U.S. Rep. George Santos to federal prosecutors after he boasted he’d be going to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, then bet against his own attendance, according to a person familiar with the investigation.
Kalshithe online prediction marketplace, referred Santos to the Department of Justice after detecting suspicious trades made by him ahead of Trump’s Feb. 24 speech, the person said. The person spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Kalshi also reported the trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a federal regulatory body that has vowed to crack down on insider trading in prediction marketplaces.
The Justice Department and the CFTC didn’t immediately respond Tuesday to inquiries from the AP.
Santos also did not respond to text messages or phone calls.
The referral was first reported by NPR. Santos told NPR that he wasn’t aware of the investigation. He declined to say whether he had a Kalshi account.
“I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no,” Santos told NPR.
The convicted ex-congressman had repeatedly discussed his intention to attend the State of the Union, which came just four months after he was granted clemency by Trump in a fraud case that led to his expulsion from the U.S. House.
On the eve of Trump’s speech, Kalshi put the odds of Santos attending at close to 75%.
Then, minutes into the speech, Santos posted on X that he had been waylaid at the airport. Immediately, several social media users accused him of running another scheme.
“Santos talking to his accountant and telling him to open his Kalshi account and bet all his money on No,” one user wrotealongside a meme of Al Pacino counting money in the movie Scarface.
In March, Santos addressed the complaints on his podcast.
“I guess people lost money,” he said. “Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.”
Santos, who won office as a Republican after inventing a bogus persona as a Wall Street dealmaker, was sentenced to seven years in prison after pleading guilty to fraud and identity theft in 2024.
After serving just 84 days, he was ordered released by Trump, who called Santos a “rogue” but said he didn’t deserve a harsh sentence and should get credit for voting Republican.
Prediction markets, including Kalshi and its chief rival Polymarket, have drawn scrutiny as their businesses have expanded — with some lawmakers urging the platforms to do more to guard against insider trading.
Both companies have said they are reporting suspicious trades to federal regulators. Some investigations have led to criminal charges. In April a soldier involved in the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was charged with using classified information to win more than $400,000 predicting the date of his capture on Polymarket.
In April, the Senate approved a bipartisan resolution to prevent its own members from using prediction markets.
___
The story has been updated to correct in the first sentence that Santos is a former congressman, not a current one.
The Dictatorship
Trump plans to nominate Todd Blanche as attorney general, source says
President Donald Trump is expected to nominate acting Attorney General Todd Blanche to serve in the role permanently in the coming days, a senior administration official confirmed to MS NOW.
Trump appointed Blanche, a former personal lawyer to the president, to lead the Justice Department in an acting capacity after firing then-Attorney General Pam Bondi in April.
When asked about Blanche’s anticipated nomination, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said, “President Trump has a great relationship with acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and is very pleased with the job he’s doing so far.”
“Todd Blanche is an American patriot who fearlessly fought against the Democrats’ unprecedented lawfare campaign on behalf of President Trump,” Jackson continued. “The President’s entire team at the Department of Justice is doing a great job advocating for sanity, law and order, and policies that keep Americans safe.”
CNN was the first to report on Trump’s plan to nominate Blanche.
In an interview on The New York Post’s “Pod Force One” podcast published Wednesday, Trump was asked if he had decided whether Blanche would be attorney general.
“I think he will,” the president said.
When asked whether he had someone else in mind for the role, Trump said no and appeared to rule out nominating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, though he called him “very good” and “a friend of mine.”
“I wanted to see how he’s received,” Trump said of Blanche. “You know, we put him as acting, and he’s done a very good job. But I’ve known him a long time.”
Blanche’s road to confirmation could be a rough one following the intense bipartisan blowback to Trump’s IRS settlement, which initially included a $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization” fund that was expected to compensate participants in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and other Trump allies.
Two senior administration officials told MS NOW that Blanche has developed good relationships with GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill that might help allay some confirmation issues he will inevitably face. But ultimately, they said, his confirmation may hinge on whether or not the weaponization fund is actually dropped.
Earlier this week, Blanche testified before a House Appropriations Committee panel that the Trump administration is “not moving forward with the fund. Period.”
Bondi’s firing followed bipartisan backlash over the Justice Department’s handling of the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files under her leadership. During a closed-door interview with the House Oversight Committee last week as part of the GOP-led panel’s sprawling investigation into Epstein, Bondi appeared to shift the blame for the botched release to Blanche.
Though she admitted to “redaction errors,” according to her prepared opening remarks to the committee, she said she had “delegated oversight over this process” to Blanche, then deputy attorney general. Later that day, she praised “Blanche’s management of this Herculean task” in a post on social media and called his ethics “beyond reproach.”
Jacqueline Alemany is co-anchor of “The Weekend” and a Washington correspondent for MS NOW.
Hayley Meissner is the senior producer for MS NOW’s Breaking News and Blogs team.
The Dictatorship
Federal authorities investigate George Santos for alleged prediction market insider trading
A federal investigation has been launched into former Republican Rep. George Santos over allegations he placed bets on himself on Kalshi, an online prediction market.
Santos’ Kalshi activities were flagged to both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and to the Department of Justice, a source with knowledge of the matter, who was not authorized to speak publicly, confirmed to MS NOW.
The CFTC is investigating Santos, a source confirmed to MS NOW. The DOJ told MS NOW it is not investigating Santos. NPR, which was first to report this story, reported that both the DOJ and the CTFC had opened investigations into Santos, citing two sources who were not authorized to speak publicly.
In a video posted to X on Feb. 23, one day before President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, Santos said he would be attending the event and would sit in the gallery rather than on the House floor, where he is permanently barred under House rules because he was expelled from the House in December 2023.
Despite his public RSVP, Santos reportedly placed bets that he would not attend the event. About three hours before Trump was set to deliver his speech, Santos announced he would not attend.
“Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML,” Santos posted on X.
Santos reportedly earned a payout from his clairvoyant bet as a result, and those who bet on him attending lost money.
Santos did not reply to a request for comment from MS NOW about the commodity commission’s investigation into his alleged insider trading.
But in a statement shared to X on Wednesday, he said, “My legal team is in contact with the DOJ to see what is going on. I will comment further when appropriate and clarify everything accordingly while being mindful and respectful of any process that might be underway.”
He called the allegations “preposterous” and asked journalists to stop trying to contact him.
Santos, first elected to Congress in 2022 after flipping a Democratic seat in Long Island, was charged in 2023 on federal charges related to wire fraud, money laundering and theft. He pleaded guiltyto wire fraud and aggravated identity theft, was sentenced to 87 months in federal prison and ordered to pay a fine. He began serving his sentence in New Jersey in July 2025.
Trump commuted Santos’ sentence in October, saying the former lawmaker was “horribly mistreated.”
Santos had significant discrepancies in his resume and personal backstory before the election — including falsehoods about his Jewish faith, alma mater and his mother surviving the 9/11 attacks — which were discovered just after he won.
A House Ethics Committee investigationin 2023 also found “substantial evidence” he misused campaign funds for personal reasons, including Botox, a subscription to OnlyFans and other luxury items. The House officially voted to remove Santos from office in December 2023.
Mychael Schnell and Ken Dilanian contributed to this report.
Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.
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