Congress

Will Democrats finally get a shot at taking out Susan Collins?

Published

2 years ago

March 25, 2025

Captain Ahab had Moby Dick. Wile E. Coyote had Road Runner. Senate Democrats have Susan Collins.

Even as ticket-splitting rates have plummeted, Collins has stymied all previous Democratic attempts to oust her from her Maine Senate seat and she remains the only Republican senator left standing in a state that Donald Trump lost in 2024. A rare GOP moderate, she frequently crosses party lines, voting to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial and against confirming his Defense secretary four years later.

That has made her unpopular with some Trump voters, but Collins’ path has always been to make up for her weakness on her right flank by bringing in an impressive number of moderate Democrats and cleaning up with independents. In the midterms, Democrats are hoping she’s become so unpalatable that her coalition collapses.

A Public Policy Polling survey, commissioned by a top Democratic super PAC and shared first with Blue Light News, is giving them reason for optimism. Collins’ approval rating is underwater by 37 points with 24 percent approving of her and 61 percent disapproving, per the survey of 569 registered Maine voters. The crosstabs show she is being pinched on both sides — she’s upside down with Kamala Harris voters 17/71 and with Trump voters at 30/52.

“A big part of Collins’ problem is that when it comes to Trump her approach is just antagonizing everyone,” the pollster wrote in the memo, noting that 81 percent “of Harris voters think she votes with Trump too often” and 73 percent of “of Trump voters think she doesn’t vote with Trump often enough.”

Her overall favorability rating was underwater at 19/65. Similarly among independents it was upside down at 19/66.

The poll, which had a sample size split nearly evenly among Democrats, independents and Republicans and was conducted on March 20-21 on behalf of Senate Majority PAC, a group with close ties to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. It has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

But Collins’ still has one massive advantage: Democrats are likely to have a hard time recruiting a candidate to go against her. There is a wide open governor’s race that looks far more enticing than challenging a formidable incumbent. One prominent Democrat, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, is exploring a run for governor and moderate Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, a former Collins staffer, is highly unlikely to challenge her.

Even with a top-tier challenger, Collins knows how to survive. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted in mid-October of 2019 found her approval rating underwater by 15 points with 35 percent approving to 50 percent disapproving.

In that race, she was vastly outraised by her 2020 opponent, then-Maine state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Collins consistently trailed her in the polls and even some in the GOP doubted her ability to prevail. Ultimately, the incumbent won, 51 to 42 percent in November 2020 — even as Trump lost the state and under Maine’s new ranked-choice voting system.

“Chuck Schumer literally ran out of things to spend money on last time he tried to take down Susan Collins and she still won,” said Nick Puglia, a spokesperson for the Senate GOP campaign arm. “In 2026, Mainers will re-elect Susan Collins again and no amount of partisan polling or openly begging any Democrat to run against her will change that.”

At a time when the MAGA movement has demanded unwavering loyalty to Trump, Collins could be vulnerable to a primary challenger. But she ran unopposed for the Republican nomination in 2020 and could again avoid a serious challenge in 2026. Trump allies are well aware that Collins is the only Republican who could win the seat, though they don’t control every MAGA activist in the state.

The survey does have some good results for Collins. She still has support from 17 percent of Harris voters, a not insignificant level of crossover appeal. Compare that to Trump, who has an approval rating of just 2 percent with Harris voters.

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Congress

Chris Murphy plans midterm travel blitz, fundraising for Nixon in Florida

Published

2 hours ago

October 9, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Sen. Chris Murphy wants Democrats to go big for Angie Nixon in Florida’s Senate race — and he’s pushing to raise some “serious money” to help.

“I do believe that we’d make a big mistake if we slept on Florida,” the Connecticut Democrat told Blue Light News on Friday. “I know it feels like a longer shot, but I just think this year is looking exceptional.”

Murphy plans to hit the trail with Nixon as part of a campaign swing for Senate candidates over the next three weeks that will take him through North Carolina and Florida, as well as events with Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire. Murphy will serve as a surrogate for El-Sayed in the spin room at his next debate, and said he’s “just a big believer” in the Michigan Senate nominee.

Murphy’s bullishness about a blue wave comes as Senate Democrats are pushing the boundaries of a midterm battle map that is shifting further into red territory. The Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC has dropped roughly $5 million apiece into Texas and Kansas over recent days, and the minority leader has included Kansas and Mississippi in his pitches to donors.

“If I were in charge, I would definitely put some resources in Florida,” Murphy said. “When you have an exciting candidate like this, it’s a good long-term investment” in growing Democrats’ activist base.

Still, Murphy stressed he’s “not making any formal recommendations” on where Schumer or top Democratic campaign groups should move their money.

“They’ve got so many mouths to feed,” Murphy said. “That’s why I’m going to try to step up and do some work on my own.”

Murphy, who is considered a potential 2028 presidential contender, has spread roughly $2.5 million across candidates, campaign arms and other organizations this cycle. That includes transferring more than $500,000 to Democrats’ three top campaign arms and 25 state parties.

Prominent Democrats have been ramping up their attention on Florida. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has funneled $250,000 toward Nixon’s campaign, along with other resources. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) also told Blue Light News he hopes to campaign with Nixon.

But Democrats across suddenly competitive red states are clamoring for more cash and Florida is an expensive state, complicating the chances of a significant investment from national groups.

Nixon also faces an uphill battle against GOP Sen. Ashley Moody in the Sunshine State. A progressive state lawmaker, Nixon aligned herself with the Democratic Socialists of America over the summer in a state where many voters, especially those with ties to Cuba, reject such an ideology. Also, Republicans in Florida have a 1.5 million voter registration advantage over Democrats.

Congress

Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

Published

5 hours ago

October 9, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Senate Democrats’ top super PAC is pushing into Kansas.

The Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC is launching a $5 million statewide television ad blitz starting Saturday through Election Day — the latest sign that Democrats believe the Senate map is shifting onto red turf.

SMP had signaled in recent days it could get involved in the race, telling Blue Light News late last month it was “actively thinking” about whether to wade into the state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in nearly a century but where Adam Hamilton narrowly leads GOP Sen. Roger Marshall in recent polls. Internal SMP polling that found an increasingly competitive race factored into the group’s decision to spend. It will also run digital ads.

“The gap is closing in Kansas,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement. “We are committed to ensuring families understand Marshall’s real record of making health care and basic goods more expensive for working Kansans.”

Republicans are scrambling to shore up Marshall. Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC aligned with Republican leadership, has booked over $10 million in ads through Election Day in the state, per ad tracking firm AdImpact.

SMP’s first ad attacks Marshall for joining Senate Republicans in voting to table a Democratic-led amendment last year to release the Jeffrey Epstein files. The Senate later approved legislation to release the files by unanimous consent. It’s the latest in a slate of ads from Democrats hitting their Republican rivals over the late, disgraced financier and convicted sex offender. Marshall’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Senate Democrats’ plunge into the state comes as the midterm battle map is undergoing a major realignment. Georgia and North Carolina — primed to be two of the cycle’s premiere battlegrounds — are tilting left to the point where national Republicans are retracting spending in both states and Democrats are starting to follow suit, freeing funds on both sides to shift elsewhere.

Republicans are racing to reinforce incumbents across what was once safer red turf. SLF has also pledged $5 million to bolster Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina.

Democrats, meanwhile, are starting to spend more in red states. SMP has dropped over $2 million on digital ads in Texas. Schumer, the Senate minority leader, has included Kansas and Mississippi in his pitches to donors.

Congress

House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

Published

6 hours ago

October 9, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is begging for resources, and setting a hard deadline for donors to give $17 million in order to compete in a handful of districts that Republicans carried easily in 2024.

DCCC Executive Director Julie Merz said the committee needs the cash influx by Oct. 22 in order to “to take advantage of the opportunities we have” outside of the core battlefield, according to a memo shared with donors on Friday and obtained by POLITICO.

If they don’t pony up, Merz warns, the party “could be leaving winnable races on the table.”

Democrats have been clear that they have a fundraising disadvantage this cycle, but they have so far been reluctant to place a specific dollar amount on their needs, making the DCCC’s memo Friday a particularly surprising outlier.

“Here’s the tough reality though: the Republican ecosystem has amassed a massive war chest that is significantly greater than ours and is spending it,” Merz says in the memo after arguing that the members of the committee “remain confident that we will win back the majority in 25 days.”

Specifically, Merz dedicates significant portions of the memo to four districts where the committee is desperate for more money in order to compete — all of which President Donald Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024:

— Florida’s 27th District (Trump +14.6)

— Nevada’s 2nd District (Trump +13.9)

— South Carolina’s 1st District (Trump +13)

— New York’s 21st District (Trump +20.7)

The fundraising disadvantage has created headaches for both House and Senate Democrats over where, exactly, to deploy the resources they do have.

The committee tells donors that their internal polling shows all of those races within reach, but that Republicans’ big cash advantages — especially in the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. — will make it harder to win those and other reach seats.

Merz also name drops a handful of other deep-red districts that are “worthy of additional investment in this environment,” including seats held by GOP Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.) and Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chair of the Republican National Congressional Committee.

The NRCC was quick to mock the DCCC’s memo.

“No amount of money fixes candidates voters don’t want. These seats are staying red, and Republicans are on offense across the map,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement.