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What makes the new monthly jobs report less reliable than most

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What makes the new monthly jobs report less reliable than most

Expectations heading into this week showed projections of about 110,000 new jobs having been added in the United States in October. As it turns out, according to the new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the totals were actually quite a bit worse than that. NBC News reported:

The United States added just 12,000 jobs last month, a figure economists say was impacted by two hurricanes and a strike. Yet, even with those caveats, the report pointed to a cooling labor market. The latest payrolls figure marked the fewest monthly job gains since December 2020, during the depths of the Covid pandemic, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics saying the U.S. effectively added no new net payrolls last month.

The U.S. unemployment rate, meanwhile, was unchanged at 4.1%.

At first blush, this might look like a disaster. After years of robust job growth, seeing new hires drop to a four-year low, at least superficially, appears dreadful.

But this is one of those rare months in which the top lines of the BLS report only tell part of a larger story. The New York Times published this report before the new data reached the public:

The last couple of months have seen an unusual amount of disruption. First came the Boeing strike in September, taking some 35,000 workers off payrolls, plus another 6,000 from smaller strikes. Then came Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which spiked unemployment claims by about 35,000 in early October.

The article added that a drop-off in hiring “wouldn’t be an accurate representation of employers’ appetite to hire.”

In fact, economists and market analysts have issued plenty of warnings this week, explaining that the jobs report would paint a misleading picture. The Associated Press reported a few days ago that the report would “include some of the most distorted monthly employment figures in years.”

In other words, if all you see is the top line, you’re missing the relevant context.

As for the bigger picture, let’s also circle back to previous coverage to put the data in perspective. Over the course of the first three years of Donald Trump’s presidency — when the Republican said the U.S. economy was the greatest in the history of the planet — the economy created roughly 6.38 million jobs, spanning all of 2017, 2018 and 2019.

According to the latest tally, the U.S. economy has created roughly 16.5 million jobs since January 2021 — more than double the combined total of Trump’s first three years. (If we include the fourth year of the Republican’s term, the data looks even worse for him.)

For some additional context, consider job growth by year over the past decade, updated to reflect the latest data revisions:

2013: 2.3 million

2014: 3 million

2015: 2.7 million

2016: 2.3 million

2017: 2.1 million

2018: 2.3 million

2019: 1.98 million

2020: -9.3 million

2021: 7.2 million

2022: 4.5 million

2023: 3 million

Ten months into 2024: 1.7 million

This post updates our related earlier coverage.

Steve Benen

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an BLN political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”

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Andy Beshear hits Newsom for hosting Bannon on his new podcast

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Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear took a swipe Thursday at a fellow leading Democrat, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, for hosting one of the most prominent figures in the MAGA movement on his new podcast.

Beshear, whose popularity in a heavily Republican state has turned him into a potential presidential candidate, told reporters that Newsom shouldn’t have opened his platform to Steve Bannon, an outspoken advocate of the “America first” agenda of President Donald Trump.

“I think that Governor Newsom bringing on different voices is great, we shouldn’t be afraid to talk and to debate just about anyone,” Beshear said at a Democratic policy retreat in Virginia. “But Steve Bannon espouses hatred and anger, and even at some points violence, and I don’t think we should give him oxygen on any platform, ever, anywhere.”

The criticism of Newsom, who is widely expected to run for president, amounted to what could be an early skirmish in the next Democratic primary. It also reflects divisions within a party trying to find its footing after Trump’s resounding victory.

The California governor recently launched the podcast, which appears to some degree to be an effort to find common ground with an ascendant conservative movement.

In his debut episode, speaking to Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA, Newsom drew widespread attention — and criticism — for suggesting that Democrats were wrong to allow transgender athletes to participate in female youth sports. He was also critical of progressives who have called for defunding the police or who use the gender neutral term “Latinx.”

Newsom defended his approach and the Bannon interview in an email statement on Wednesday, saying it is “critically important” to understand Trump’s movement and how it successfully operated in the last campaign.

In the hour-long episode, Bannon repeated the debunked claims that the 2020 election was stolen amid a discussion that also covered tariffs and taxes.

“I think we all agreed after the last election that it’s important for Democrats to explore new and unique ways of talking to people,” Newsom said.

A spokesperson for Newsom, who plans to have Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on his next episode, did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Beshear’s remarks.

The Kentucky governor, who was a featured speaker at the retreat along with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, was not alone in criticizing the Bannon interview.

Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who was one of the few Republicans in Congress to challenge Trump, called it an “insane” decision to host Bannon.

“I am in shock at the stupidity of [Newsom] inviting Steve Bannon on his podcast,” Kinzinger said Wednesday. “Many of us on the right sacrificed careers to fight Bannon, and Newsom is trying to make a career and a presidential run by building him up.”

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Top Illinois Democrat readies a Senate bid — and tells people she has major backing

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Ambitious Illinois Democrats are dreaming about Sen. Dick Durbin’s exit in 2026. The latest contender: the state’s lieutenant governor.

Juliana Stratton, who first took office in 2019, is quietly positioning herself for a Senate bid if Durbin bows out, calling key Democratic figures to ask for support, according to three people with knowledge of her plans, one of whom spoke with her directly and the other two who spoke with members of her team.

And she and her staff have said that she’s already secured the support of Gov. JB Pritzker, the three people said. They were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations and avoid political retribution. She and her team have made clear she expects Pritzker to be heavily involved financially, those people said.

“Juliana continues to keep an open mind about future opportunities, and if she does decide to pursue higher office, she’d be proud to earn the governor’s support while working to build a broad grassroots coalition,” said a spokesperson for the lieutenant governor, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Pritzker, a high-profile governor and potential 2028 hopeful, is already a prolific Democratic donor and party operator, and his vast personal wealth would be a significant boost to any candidate. His money and endorsement could transform the brewing shadow primary that includes several members of the state’s congressional delegation.

His team declined to discuss an endorsement or financial backing in any potential primary. “We’re not going to engage with hypotheticals for a seat that’s not even open,” said a person close to the governor’s political operation granted anonymity to speak candidly.

The governor hand-picked Stratton, then a state representative, to be his running mate in 2017 and he was a guest of honor last month at a fundraising event for her newly formed federal PAC.

Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton speaks to reporters as Gov. JB Pritzker, to her left, looks on with other state lawmakers in Chicago on Feb. 10, 2025.

Pritzker, a billionaire heir to the Hyatt hotel empire, could support that PAC as well as donate millions to any other super PACs supporting her campaign. That kind of financial support could make Stratton the front-runner in a primary that would essentially guarantee a spot in the Senate in the heavily blue state.

And if a Pritzker-backed candidate wins the race, it could help position him even more firmly as a major Democratic powerbroker, one whose influence could extend beyond Illinois political circles as 2028 approaches.

Durbin has served in the Senate since 1997 and while many Democrats expect the 80-year-old will retire, those close to him say he hasn’t yet decided.

In a brief interview Wednesday, Durbin acknowledged the lieutenant governor was among the Democrats who are preparing for his possible retirement: “She said if I run she’s not going to.”

Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has been padding his campaign account for years for a possible Senate run. He had amassed $17.1 million by the end of 2024. His fellow Democratic Reps. Lauren Underwood, who flipped a GOP-held district in 2018, and Robin Kelly, the former chair of the Illinois Democratic Party, are also eyeing the seat.

And Illinois Democrats have made a parlor game of wondering what’s next for Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor who just returned from an ambassador stint in Japan. For now, he’s a commentator on BLN.

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‘Be careful about this’: Warnings abound as GOP considers writing off tax cuts

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‘Be careful about this’: Warnings abound as GOP considers writing off tax cuts

Republicans will discuss the accounting maneuver with President Donald Trump on Thursday…
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