The Dictatorship
What Americans think about Trump’s judgment on military force as Iran talks resume: new AP-NORC poll
WASHINGTON (AP) — As the U.S. and Iran head into their next round of nuclear talks in Genevaa new AP-NORC poll finds that many U.S. adults continue to view Iran’s nuclear program as a threat — but they also don’t have high trust in President Donald Trump’s judgment on the use of military force abroad.
About half of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned that Iran’s nuclear program poses a direct threat to the United States, according to the new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. About 3 in 10 are “moderately” concerned and only about 2 in 10 are “not very” concerned or “not concerned at all.”
The survey was conducted Feb. 19-23, as military tensions built in the Middle East between the United States and Iran. The U.S. is seeking a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program and ensure it does not develop nuclear weapons, while Iran says it is not pursuing weapons and has so far resisted demands that it halt uranium enrichment on its soil or hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Trump, who scrapped an earlier nuclear agreement with Iran during his first term, has repeatedly threatened to use force to compel Iran to agree to constrain its atomic programwhich Trump claimed to have “obliterated” following the 12-day war in June where the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites. Iran has said it would respond with an attack of its own. Trump has also threatened Iran over the killing of protesters. Both countries have signaled they are prepared for war if the talks on Tehran’s nuclear program fail, and the U.S. has assembled its largest military force in the Mideast in decades as tensions with Iran have risen.
Most Americans, 61%, say Iran is an “enemy” of the U.S., which is up slightly from a Pearson Institute/AP-NORC poll conducted in September 2023. But their confidence in the president’s judgment when it comes to relationships with adversaries and the use of military force abroad is low, the new poll shows, with only about 3 in 10 Americans saying they have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of trust in Trump.
Even some Republicans — particularly younger Republicans — have reservations about Trump’s ability to make the right choices on these high-stakes issues.
Most US adults have concerns about Trump’s judgment on military force
The Trump administration this year has held two rounds of nuclear talks with Iran under Omani mediation, with a third round scheduled to begin Thursday. Similar talks last year between the U.S. and Iran about Iran’s nuclear program broke down after Israel launched what became the 12-day war in June.
AP AUDIO: What Americans think about Trump’s judgment on military force as Iran talks resume: new AP-NORC poll
AP Washington correspondent Sagar Meghani reports on a poll showing American fears about both Iran and President Trump’s judgment on using military force abroad.
“We are in negotiations with them,” Trump said during his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, which took place after the poll was conducted. “They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: We will never have a nuclear weapon.”
Americans have significant reservations about Trump’s judgment on foreign conflicts, the AP-NORC poll shows. Only about 3 in 10 of U.S. adults have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of trust in Trump’s judgment on the use of military force, relationships with U.S. adversaries or the use of nuclear weapons. More than half trust him “only a little” or “not at all.”
On each measure, Republicans are more likely than Democrats and Independents to trust that the president will make the right decisions. About 6 in 10 Republicans have a high level of trust in Trump, while roughly 9 in 10 Democrats have a low level of trust in him.
But some Republicans’ confidence is more qualified. Younger Republicans — those under 45 — are less likely than older Republicans to say they trust Trump “a great deal” or “quite a bit” on his use of military force. About half of younger Republicans say this, compared with about two-thirds of older Republicans.
Many view Iran’s nuclear program as a threat
The new finding that 48% of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned that Iran’s nuclear program poses a direct threat to their country is in line with an AP-NORC poll conducted in July 2025, indicating that even with recent escalations between the two countries, Americans have not changed their views.
Before the June war, Iran had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels. The U.N. nuclear watchdog — the International Atomic Energy Agency — had said Iran was the only country in the world to enrich to that level that wasn’t armed with the bomb.
Iran has been refusing requests by the IAEA to inspect the sites bombed in the June war, raising the concerns of nonproliferation experts.
Worries about Iran’s nuclear program cross party lines in the U.S., though Republicans are currently more concerned. Most Republicans — 56% — say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, compared with 44% of Democrats.
Younger Americans are less worried about Iran
Americans generally hold a negative view of Iran, but the view is sharper among older Americans.
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say Iran is an “enemy” of the United States, up slightly from 53% from the Pearson/AP-NORC poll from 2023. Roughly 3 in 10 say the countries are “not friendly, but not enemies,” and only about 1 in 10 Americans consider the two nations “friendly” or “close allies.”
At the same time, only about half of U.S. adults under 45 say Iran is an enemy, compared with about 7 in 10 Americans ages 45 and older. There is also a wide generational divide in concern about Iran’s nuclear program, with only about one-third of Americans under 45 saying they are highly concerned, compared with about 6 in 10 older Americans.
Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have existed for decadeswhich may help explain why older Americans are more concerned. Nuclear talks had been deadlocked for years after Trump’s decision in 2018 to unilaterally withdraw the U.S. from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
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Liechtenstein reported from Vienna. Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.
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The AP-NORC poll of 1,133 adults was conducted Feb. 19-23 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
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The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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Additional AP coverage of the nuclear landscape: https://apnews.com/projects/the-new-nuclear-landscape/
The Dictatorship
Monday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.22.26: Why Trump backed both Republicans in a key S.C. race
Today’s installment of campaign-related news items from across the country.
* In South Carolina’s gubernatorial raceDonald Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Pam Evette last month. Last week, however, ahead of this week’s primary runoff election in the race, the president published an online item telling voters that “you can’t go wrong” with either Evette or state Attorney General Alan Wilson.
If this sounds at all familiar, it’s because Trump has done this before. Around this time two years ago, for example, he endorsed both Republicans running in a congressional primary in Arizona. And two years before that, he endorsed two leading contenders in a Senate primary in Missouri.
Only the president can say for sure why he ended up endorsing Evette and Wilson in the South Carolina race, though it’s worth emphasizing for context that GOP primary voters have already ignored his direction into two gubernatorial primaries this month, and it stands to reason that he hoped to avoid a third.
* We’re one day away from a variety of notable racesincluding but not limited to South Carolina’s gubernatorial race. There are also some congressional primaries in a handful of statesincluding Maryland, New York and Utah.
* In took a while, but the ballots have been tallied under Maine’s ranked-choice systemand we now know that Democrat Hannah Pingree, the former state House speaker, will face off against Republican Bobby Charles, who worked at the State Department during the Bush-Cheney era.
* As for Maine’s closely watched congressional racestate Auditor Matt Dunlap won the Democratic nomination in the battleground 2nd District, defeating state Sen. Joe Baldacci, who enjoyed the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Dunlap will run in the fall against a familiar figure: former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, who had moved to Florida a few years ago, but who returned to run for Congress.
* In California’s congressional special electiontwo Democratic candidates — state Sen. Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez, a Bay Area Rapid Transit director — have advanced to an Aug. 18 special general election. The winner will fill the vacancy left by disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned in April.
* In a new commercial shared first with MS NOWDemocrat James Talarico has launched his campaign’s first multimillion-dollar ad buy in Texas’ gubernatorial race. In the 30-second spot, Talarico focuses on affordability and the cost of living. The state lawmaker will face scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the fall.
* And in New Jersey, Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr.who has been missing from Capitol Hill since early March, will reportedly return to work on June 30according to a statement from his spokesperson. Neither Kean nor his office have offered any public information about why he has been away.
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
The Dictatorship
Trump tries dual endorsement in South Carolina as his pick for governor flounders in polls
After President Donald Trump’s pick for governor in Iowa lost in the Republican primary earlier this month, the president argued that he “would have endorsed the other person” if he had “the proper information.”
Trump is taking no chances in the South Carolina gubernatorial primary. Over the weekend he rescinded his exclusive endorsement of Pamela Evette, the lieutenant governor, announcing instead that he would support both Evette and her runoff opponent, Alan Wilson, the state’s attorney general.
The move put Evette’s political future in jeopardy: Even before Trump’s dual endorsement, she trailed in limited public polling and was seen by political observers in South Carolina as a weak candidate with little to show besides the president’s coveted endorsement.
“Her chief distinction from Alan Wilson was that Trump endorsed her,” said Dr. Dubose Kapeluck, a professor of political science at the Citadel Military College of South Carolina.
Trump’s dual endorsement “was a kiss of death,” he told MS NOW.
Evette, who moved to South Carolina from Ohio to found a successful payroll and HR company in 2000, has been lieutenant governor since 2019, serving under Gov. Henry McMaster, who is term-limited.
In office, she has pursued meaningful but little-celebrated policies, like a key tort reform bill, according to Gil Gatch, a Republican member of the South Carolina state House and an Evette supporter.
But voters could be forgiven for knowing little about Evette besides the fact that Trump endorsed her, which he did just days before the June 9 primary. Visitors to her campaign website are greeted with a full-screen message labeling Evette as “Trump-endorsed.” The first line in her X bio states the same. Pro-Evette television ads are quick to tout the endorsement.
An accomplishment like tort reform, while noted on Evette’s website, “maybe could have been something that was highlighted more heavily,” Gatch told MS NOW.
The political makeup of South Carolina nearly guarantees the next governor will be whoever emerges on Tuesday between Evette and Wilson. They survived a crowded primary field on June 9, and nearly every challenger who fell short of the runoff publicly endorsed the attorney general.
“She’s just not a good candidate,” Josh Kimbrell, a state senator who failed to make the runoff and has since said he’d back Wilson, said of Evette.
“She kind of assumed this was a coronation, and that was never going to go over that well,” he added.
Even some pro-Trump voters were confused by the president’s initial endorsement of Evette, whom he called “a good friend, fighter, and WINNER” in a social media post in May.
“I have no clue why Trump would endorse Pamela Evette,” Leland Lemmons, a 30-year-old Trump supporter told MS NOW as he exited a polling site in the Greenville suburb of Easley on June 9.
“She’s served, you know, a decent time. I just haven’t seen much fruition of what she’s done in office,” he added.
In a post on Truth Social Friday announcing his dual endorsement, Trump wrote, “I can’t hurt one of them by only Endorsing the other, so, therefore, I am going to Endorse, for Governor of South Carolina, both Pam Evette and Alan Wilson!”
In a subsequent statement on X, Evette said, “I was proud to come in first as [Trump’s] endorsed candidate for Governor on June 9th. Looking forward to doing it again on June 23rd.”
After The Washington Post foreshadowed the dual endorsement last Tuesday, allies of Evette were quick to denounce the possibility.
“I would guess that’s fake news,” Suzanne Pucci, a member of Evette’s finance committee, told MS NOW of the chance Trump would also endorse Wilson. “She’s probably not real worried about it.”
Another close ally and supporter told MS NOW at the time the report was “a total, fabricated lie.”
“[Trump] is invested in Pamela Evette because she invested in him. He’s a loyal guy. That kind of stuff is important to him,” added the supporter, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“With or without Trump, I think she is going to win,” they said.
On Thursday, a senior campaign aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity, brushed off the idea of a dual endorsement, telling MS NOW in a statement, “Pamela Evette has earned the complete and total endorsement of President Trump. She is the only Trump-endorsed candidate in this race and we look forward to delivering a big win for the president on Tuesday.”
Roughly 24 hours later, Trump retracted the exclusive endorsement.
Will McDuffie is a reporter for MS NOW.
As last week’s G7 summit in France got underway, a reporter asked Donald Trump whether his purported deal with Iran was final. “No, it’s not final,” the president replied. Later that day — during a visit to Versaillesof all places — he signed the framework anyway.
But moments after signing his name to the memorandum of understanding, Trump offered an unsubtle hint about what he was thinking at the time. Amid applause from those around him, the American president pointed down and then up while saying“Oil down, stocks up.”
In other words, Trump’s focus had nothing to do with natural security and everything to do with the economy. What’s more, the four-word phrase was part of a larger and underappreciated pattern. The Washington Post reported:
In the more than 100 days since President Donald Trump launched a war with Iran, he has offered a shifting list of reasons for why he started the conflict. But in explaining his push for peace, he named a priority much closer to home: protecting the stock market.
“I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe,” Trump told reporters gathered in the Alpine spa town of Évian-les-Bains, France, after the Group of Seven summit.
As the summit wrapped up, the Republican similarly said“I’ve studied presidents, some good, some bad, some great. Not too many are great and some really bad. … And the one president I did not want to be was the late, great Herbert Hoover. I didn’t want that and who knows what would have happened.”
He pushed the same point in an interview with Axios, which was released over the weekend.
“If I went further, the stock market would be much lower,” the president said. “Now think of this: I have one primary wish as president, in terms of people: I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover.”
The comments came days after Trump similarly argued“The alternative to this deal was a global recession. There are stupid people who want to see a global recession. They are just stupid people.”
Whether the president fully appreciates the implications of his own rhetoric, this string of comments doesn’t just shed light on his motivations for accepting a defeat, it also suggests he saw his failed policy in Iran as pushing the global economy toward a dangerous cliff.
In other words, based on Trump’s own comments, the war he started was poised to create an “economic catastrophe,” which he was desperate to avoid — and which led him to accept a framework that empowered Iran to get what it wanted in exchange for effectively no concessions at all.
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
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