Rising GOP star Rep. Wesley Hunt is launching a long-shot Texas Senate bid, scrambling a heated primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton.

The race for the Republican nomination in the Lone Star State will likely be one the most expensive and bruising primary contests of the 2026 midterm cycle — and some Democrats see an opportunity in the red-leaning state if Republicans surrender their incumbent advantage. Already, Paxton has an edge in most polling of the primary race against Cornyn, though the incumbent senator has closed the gap in more recent surveys. President Donald Trump has yet to endorse in the contest.

Hunt’s announcement on Monday comes after months of work and millions of dollars spent by groups aligned with the two-term congressman to boost his profile outside of his Houston-area political base.

“The time is NOW,” Hunt said in a post on his X account that included a campaign video of testimonials from his wife, brother and longtime colleagues playing up his military record and his commitment to public service. It also included images of him standing next to Trump and made no mention of either of his primary opponents.

Now a three-way battle for the GOP nomination, some Republican strategists anticipate none of the candidates will garner enough votes to win the March 3 primary outright, likely forcing a runoff in May. Privately, some establishment Republicans worry that Hunt’s entry in the race could boost Paxton. The Senate Leadership Fund urged leaders over the summer to fund Cornyn’s embattled campaign, arguing that Paxton is a “weak candidate who puts the Senate seat at risk in the general election.”

Hunt recently placed a $1.2 million ad buy, according to Ad Impact, for a spot that ran in several Texas markets including Austin, Dallas, Houston, Waco and San Antonio, well beyond the borders of his congressional district. The ad leans into his military service — he flew combat missions as an Apache helicopter pilot in Iraq — and touts his endorsement of Trump’s 2024 presidential bid.

According to internal polling from Cornyn’s campaign, Hunt received 17 percent of the vote in a hypothetical three-way matchup.

“John Cornyn is a battle-tested conservative who continues to be a leader in delivering President Trump’s agenda in the U.S. Senate and he’s the best candidate to keep Texas in the Republican Senate Majority,” National Republican Senatorial Committee communications director Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement. “Now that Wesley has chosen personal ambition over holding President Trump’s House Majority, there will be a full vetting of his record. Senator Cornyn’s conservative record of accomplishment stands tall against Wesley’s.”

Trump’s endorsement is seen as pivotal in the race. Hunt served as a surrogate for the president on the campaign trail last year, specifically working alongside fellow Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) to boost Trump’s standing among Black voters with gatherings including a pair of “Congress, cognac and cigars” events in Philadelphia and Atlanta.

While running for Congress, Hunt has gotten the Trump endorsement three times, including in 2020 when he narrowly lost a bid to unseat then-Democratic incumbent Rep. Lizzie Fletcher for a Houston-area seat.

Following the 2020 census, Texas added two new congressional districts and the state’s GOP-led Legislature drew the 38th Congressional District with Hunt in mind. He’s cruised to victory in his subsequent runs, including a 26 point win last year.

To receive the Trump endorsement in this contest, Hunt will likely have to prove he can raise money at the same rate as Cornyn and Paxton. In the most recent campaign finance reports, Hunt raised just over $400,000 for the quarter ending in July. Meanwhile, Paxton hauled in $2.9 million for the same period while Cornyn’s political operation pulled in $3.9 million, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.

Democrats also have a contested primary. Former Rep. Colin Allred, a Dallas Democrat who fell short in his push to unseat GOP Sen. Ted Cruz last year, is facing off against state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star who was one of the leaders against the Texas Legislature’s mid-decade redistricting push that added five new Republican-leaning seats ahead of the upcoming midterms.