Politics

We’re about to find out how powerful Brian Kemp really is with Georgia Republicans

Published

4 months ago

June 16, 2026

Brian Kemp’s political strength was already going to be tested in Tuesday’s Georgia runoffs. Then President Donald Trump made his move.

Kemp had spent months throwing his full support and political network behind Derek Dooley, a political neophyte and former football coach, in a quest to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — a seat Kemp himself passed on running for, to the disappointment of national Republicans who saw him as the best candidate to win.

It was a major political gambit, and one that relies on the governor’s popularity and ability to get Dooley over the finish line against a MAGA loyalist in Rep. Mike Collins and then against a strong Democratic incumbent. Early Sunday morning, Trump raised the stakes: He finally got off the sidelines and endorsed Collins, turning the Senate runoff into something of a proxy war between two of the most influential figures in Georgia politics.

Hours later, Kemp stepped into the other marquee contest in the state, endorsing Lt. Gov. Burt Jones — the Trump-backed Republican — to succeed him in the governor’s mansion.

Now, thanks to the late slate of endorsements, the governor finds himself both at odds with an increasingly influential president in the Senate race and aligned with him in the governor’s race — teeing up a complicated trial of his influence.

Tuesday’s runoff will determine the viability of Kemp’s brand of Republican politics, one willing to look beyond the conservative red meat of a MAGA Republican primary with an eye toward winning back independent and swing voters in the general election. Even when that means he’s at odds with Trump’s wishes.

The governor’s race is complicated further by billionaire Rick Jackson’s flood of spending, which quickly transformed him from a little-known candidate to one of the contest’s two leading contenders.

“Both [Jones and Dooley] face opponents with strong outside support or appeal, so the results will show how much pull Kemp still has in the Georgia GOP,” said one Georgia Republican unaffiliated with either race granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Demonstrating [his] pull will be key to any Kemp case for 2028, which would necessarily include proving he takes Georgia off the table for us as a battleground state.”

In a sign of his clout in the state, the candidates — with the exception of Collins — all featured the popular governor in campaign runoff ads, drawing him into the mix even before he officially endorsed.

“Everything I’m doing is to make sure we win in November. I’ve been very clear about that,” Kemp said at a Monday morning press conference with Dooley. “Making sure that we have the right people at the top of the ticket who can win.”

Republicans wanted Kemp to run. Instead, he put his political capital behind Dooley.

Tuesday’s runoffs come at a pivotal moment in which Kemp has largely sidestepped questions about his future, but is seen both in Georgia and nationally as a potential 2028 presidential contender as the Republican Party makes its first steps into a post-Trump future. Kemp’s approval rating hovers around 60 percent — roughly 20 points higher than Trump’s in a rapidly evolving battleground.

Many Georgia Republicans had hoped that Kemp, a popular figure, would run for the Senate seat himself — a nod to his unique strength in a finicky state, where candidates have to win with a broad coalition of voters to succeed in statewide races like he did during his reelection in 2022.

“If Kemp had jumped into this race, it would already be a seat that Republicans were counting as a flip,” said Ryan Mahoney, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and former aide to Kemp.

Instead, Republicans got a crowded field and a primary marked by bitter intraparty fighting as Ossoff kept his powder dry and amassed a significant war chest ahead of a competitive general election. The GOP’s original bullishness on flipping the blue seat turned into frustration and a feeling that Ossoff was proving more and more difficult to vanquish.

Before Trump’s last minute foray into the race, the Republican Senate contest had been marked by Kemp’s hands-on presence for Dooley, who the governor has repeatedly touted as an electable political outsider who could build the big-tent coalition needed to win. Kemp appeared at dozens of campaign stops across the state and activated his deep network of donors for his longtime friend and hand-picked candidate.

Dooley was still polling in a consistent third place for the majority of the primary — but Kemp continued to appear with him across the state, and Hardworking Americans Inc., a Kemp-aligned federal PAC, went on to spend $2 million on ads, including one featuring the governor giving a straight-to-camera pitch for Dooley. The candidate ended up finishing in a solid second place, besting Rep. Buddy Carter to make the runoff — a significant win for Kemp’s political machine.

And while Collins dominated in rural areas of the state, and Carter in his southwestern congressional district around Savannah, Dooley’s base of support emerged from the all-important metro Atlanta area.

“Dooley clearly had momentum, and that momentum showed up at the ballot box,” Mahoney said. “That momentum was fueled by Brian Kemp, and, more specifically, Brian Kemp to camera pushing people to vote for Derek.”

But there are looming questions over Kemp’s ability to pull Dooley across the finish line in the second round of voting.

Collins had already secured support from several MAGA-aligned groups before Trump left his mark on the contest, including the powerful Club for Growth and Turning Point Action.

Trump’s endorsement put the final stamp on that dynamic of MAGA vs. Kemp, solidifying the House Republican as the carrier of the populist right’s mantle in the race and putting the president in direct opposition to the governor.

“Mike is a special guy, a special congressman, a special person, and so I’d like to have everybody go out and get out and vote for this man. We love Georgia,” Trump said in a tele-rally with Collins late on Monday afternoon from France ahead of his appearance at the G7. “Mike is so important.”

But Trump’s late support for Collins comes with its own warning signs, harkening back to an embarrassing loss from earlier this month, when Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) came up short in his run for governor after winning the president’s support just a handful of days prior.

Early voting had already closed by the time Trump endorsed Collins on Sunday, creating a narrow window for him to capitalize on the president’s coveted backing.

Trump and Kemp align in governor’s race — against an influx of cash

While the Senate contest pits the president against Kemp, the two will also be tested in the vastly different race for governor.

That contest will show whether the two leaders’ combined influence can outmatch the power of over $100 million in spending from Jackson, whose deluge of cash has upended the contest since his splashy entrance in February.

Kemp had loomed large over the contest, as both candidates tried to tie themselves to the popular governor. Shortly after the May primary, Jackson aired an ad that appeared to imply he had won the governor’s support. That ad backfired, contributing to Kemp’s decision on Sunday to back Jones, according to a person familiar with the governor’s thinking and granted anonymity to speak candidly about the endorsement.

A spokesperson for Kemp referred Blue Light News to the governor’s press conference with Jones, during which he said lieutenant governor was the only pick “to make sure that Georgia remains the best place to live, work, and raise a family.” Jones had “been a trusted ally in that effort, being there every step of the way,” Kemp said.

Kemp’s decision to weigh in on the race came together in fairly quick succession. The lieutenant governor’s team was told around lunchtime on Sunday that Kemp was preparing to endorse Jones, according to a person familiar with the conversation between the two camps, granted anonymity to discuss campaign matters. Kemp’s backing was made public later that afternoon in a lengthy statement posted to social media.

Jones had already secured the president’s support almost as soon as he got into the race and has long touted his close relationship with the president. But it was Kemp’s backing that he said could cement his runoff win and propel him into the general election.

“I can’t say enough about how appreciative [Georgia Second Lady Jan Jones] and I are for this endorsement from the governor and the first lady. We think that this is exactly what’s going to put us over the top,” Jones said in a press conference Monday alongside the governor.

The candidate also released an ad on Monday featuring the governor and first lady Marty Kemp praising him as a “strong ally” and highlighting their partnership over the last several years.

“The real endorsement is tomorrow. It’s with the people of this state. And they’re going to decide who they want at the top of the ticket,” Kemp said at his morning appearance with Dooley.

Politics

‘A warning sign for polling’: Why one GOP pollster thinks a blue wave may fall short

Published

17 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Democrats are salivating over, and Republicans are bracing for, a potentially massive blue wave. One GOP pollster is urging everyone to calm down.

Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at Echelon Insights, has been loudly throwing cold water on Democrats’ hopes of sweeping the red state Senate seats that have become battlegrounds in a worsening national environment for Republicans.

“The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground,” Ruffini told Blue Light News.

Democrats are pushing to flip Senate seats in Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska — all states that President Donald Trump won by at least 11 points in 2024 — with dreams of going even deeper into the map Kansas, South Carolina and even Mississippi. Sensing a potential disaster, Republicans have significantly curtailed their investments in North Carolina and Georgia to direct resources elsewhere.

Ruffini, who isn’t polling for candidates or party committees in any federal races, said he’s skeptical of Democrats flipping some of those seats, particularly in the Midwest, and gives the GOP a coin flip’s chance at keeping control of the Senate.

If a blue wave were to come, he said it would defy the ingrained partisanship in deep-red states that has mirrored growing political polarization around the country.

“I think it would be somewhat of a historic shift if that were to happen,” he said.

Here’s more from Blue Light News’s chat with Ruffini, edited for length and clarity. A more condensed version of this interview ran in Blue Light News’s Morning Score campaign newsletter.

You’ve been pretty publicly skeptical of polling that indicates a big tsunami for Democrats in November. Why is that?

I think we can read the environment right, but the map wrong.

The pretty large shift towards Democrats that we’re seeing on the generic ballot and in a lot of individual races, I’m not saying that’s not going to materialize. What I am more skeptical of is… the ability of any major party in this polarized era that we’re in to rack up significant gains in states that went double digits for the other side.

I’m not ruling out — I think there will be some [examples]. I think Alaska is one where it’s both an idiosyncratic state, and [Democratic nominee Mary] Peltola has shown some specific candidate-centered strength. Nor would it shock me if [Democrat] James Talarico wins, despite the history in Texas. That would not surprise me, just given the candidate quality disparity, particularly on the Ken Paxton side.

Where I get more skeptical is when you move into the Midwest, where there has historically been pretty large polling errors [overstating Democrats’ chances] in states like Iowa, Ohio. And I think you can extend that to the Democratic enthusiasm around Kansas.

Is your skepticism coming more from the quality of the individual polls that you’re seeing that are showing massive Democratic surges in the Midwest, or is it the history of these states that you’re betting will ultimately win out?

I think fundamentals are going to play an important role, particularly in states where there was a solid Trump advantage. We’re not talking about a state like North Carolina or Georgia that’s only for Trump narrowly, where Democrats, at least in the Senate races, are clearly favored.

Historically the presumption is that states tend to converge on their base partisanship in the closing days of an election, but especially that’s been the pattern in the Midwest.

Specifically as it relates to the polls this year, I think any pollster you would talk to, including myself, is experiencing significant non-response bias favoring Democrats.

When you’re seeing high-propensity Democrats [responding to polls] at twice the rate of high-propensity Republicans, when we know that the turnout on both sides would be roughly evenly paired, that’s a warning sign for polling in this cycle.

It seems like there’s some GOP internal polling saying that Republicans are worried about these states, because they are moving money around to triage certain races. I’m curious if you feel like they’re wrong to be making those decisions?

Absolutely not. They’re not wrong. You do have to take the polls somewhat seriously in the sense of, if you do get a poll that’s within the margin of error, I think you’re duty-bound to spend money in those places and not to ignore what could be a potential signal.

I think that control of the Senate comes down to Texas, so they’re right to be spending money there. If you just look at the amount of money being spent in Texas versus Kansas, obviously it’s a much, much bigger state, and you need to spend much more money.

But it’s not something along the lines of ‘the battleground has shifted. It’s a foregone conclusion. Democrats are going to win the Senate,’ and then the battleground entirely shifts to a state like Kansas or to Iowa, right? I don’t think we’re seeing that.

It sounds like the issue you have is how the broader public is interpreting these polls rather than the polls themselves?

The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground. And to some extent it’s happening both ways. The polls showing a margin-of- error race in Minnesota is possible, right? I’m not as concerned about a polling error in Minnesota as I am in Kansas.

But because of the number of Democratic internals and because of the incentive of Democratic internals to show close races across the battleground, what you generally tend to see is more of an inflated sense of how big the battleground actually is. A lot of these races just break a certain way.

We’ve reported that Republicans are privately conceding that the House is lost. Is that your reading of the data too?

That’s the best reading of the data. That said, if there’s a three-point polling error or something, then I think it gets very, very tight and anything can happen. But I think that’s the most likely outcome.

What is your prediction for the number of Senate seats Republicans will have?

My prediction for both the probability and the seat count is 50-50. There’s a 50-50 chance Republicans hold the Senate. I think if they do, it’s with 50 seats, probably. But obviously, that can tilt very easily.

Which of these states do you think are going to flip for Democrats?

Alaska is clearly favored. I mean, I don’t know if it’s clearly favored, but I think it’s at least still Democrat. I think Texas is going to be very, very close. I just think the partisanship of the state is — people forget it’s a little bit more Republican than it was back in 2018. I think Republicans are probably being underestimated in Ohio because of the past Midwestern polling error.

At the same time, I would say it’s still uphill in Maine and Michigan to some degree. I think Susan Collins has really been the lone bright spot, at least in terms of the conventional wisdom, the narrative in the Senate for Republicans. I think she has a fighting chance, but I think Republicans are still probably under a 50% chance in both Michigan and Maine, just due to the nature of their partisan lean.

If at the end of all of this it is a real blue wave in the Senate, what will have happened to have made you wrong?

If that happens, we will have seen a level of depolarization in the electorate that we haven’t seen since around 2012. You really have to go back in history for a state like Kansas to flip.That would be pretty unique historically, where it’s a flip where you have an incumbent losing.

That’s the kind of thing that used to happen in Senate races a lot, and then things, starting with Trump, got a lot more polarized. So what that would mean is, maybe this is the start of a new political era. But I think it would be somewhat of a historic shift if that were to happen.

Politics

Ohio returns as a bellwether

Published

19 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Ohio returns as a bellwether

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Politics

Inside the quiet money pullback — for both parties — in Georgia’s Senate race

Published

21 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The money spigot is sputtering in Georgia’s Senate race amid growing expectations that Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff will win reelection.

The Senate Leadership Fund, Republicans’ top Senate super PAC, did not spend on broadcast television in the state last week — the first week they were off air in the race, according to tracking firm AdImpact. Neither did Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC.

Senate Majority PAC will also be dark again this week, the Chuck Schumer-aligned group shared first with Blue Light News. It was not immediately clear whether SLF would follow suit. The group declined to comment on their future spending plans in the state.

The spending slowdown underscores how dramatically Georgia’s place on the Senate map has shifted, as Ossoff maintains wide margins over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in public polling and fundraising. Georgia was expected to be one of the cycle’s most expensive and preeminent battlegrounds — now some of the biggest outside spenders are pulling back and turning their attention to more competitive races in redder territory.

The two major Senate super PACs have closely mirrored each other’s spending decisions in recent weeks, with neither fully retreating from the state. They still both technically have future ad reservations booked past this week, but those are not binding, leaving both sides with the flexibility to redirect money as they assess the Senate map. And with two weeks until Election Day and early voting already underway in Georgia, it’s unclear whether either will spend any more in the state.

“National Republicans are abandoning Mike Collins as he continues to show Georgians why he’s unelectable and unfit for office. We are committed to seeing Jon Ossoff through to victory as we come to the final days of this campaign,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement.

Collins’ campaign, in a statement, said they were “grateful to every group that’s standing with Rep. Collins and welcome their continued support.”

“With early voting underway, he’s working every day to earn the vote of every Georgian, because Jon Ossoff is a radical leftist who wants to raise their taxes and make their families less safe. Rep. Collins will keep making that case until Ossoff is held accountable on Election Day,” Collins spokesperson Meyer Siegfried said in a statement.

Ossoff’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.

SMP had pledged in the spring to spend $20 million on television for the race, but as of Friday had only spent or reserved $11.5 million, per AdImpact. SLF had announced an initial $44 million investment, but has so far only spent or reserved roughly $20 million.

No Going Back PAC, which is affiliated with President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, has also dramatically scaled back its own spending on the race over the last two weeks, according to AdImpact.

Republican operatives are still monitoring Georgia’s governor’s race, where recent public polling shows GOP nominee Rick Jackson slightly ahead of Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. Republicans believe Jackson’s strength could keep the Senate race closer than currently expected.

But they have grown increasingly pessimistic about their prospects of flipping Georgia’s Senate seat, as Collins trails Ossoff in the polls and the overall environment for the GOP continues to grow more difficult. SLF’s decision to go dark last week — so close to the election — raises questions about how much more the group will ultimately invest in the state.

“Every dollar Schumer spends in Georgia is one not spent on offense in red states. Republicans’ financial advantage doesn’t just show up in more ads, it keeps Dems on defense,” a person familiar with SLF’s spending plans told Blue Light News.

Ossoff also holds a massive fundraising advantage over Collins, who had just over $1 million cash on hand as of Oct. 1, giving Ossoff a major financial cushion in the final stretch even before the major Senate super PACs pulled back their spending.

The GOP has been triaging races across the map: SLF shifted money out of North Carolina, another perennial battleground, while moving resources toward defending GOP-held seats in states like Kansas and South Carolina, where the Senate contests have become increasingly competitive.

Still, even as the money going into Georgia has continued to slow, Trump appears to be prioritizing the longtime battleground.

At a rally in Dalton on Friday, he urged voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot, while praising Collins and the state’s GOP governor’s nominee, Rick Jackson.

Meredith Lee Hill and Andrew Howard contributed.