Politics
We’re about to find out how powerful Brian Kemp really is with Georgia Republicans
Brian Kemp’s political strength was already going to be tested in Tuesday’s Georgia runoffs. Then President Donald Trump made his move.
Kemp had spent months throwing his full support and political network behind Derek Dooley, a political neophyte and former football coach, in a quest to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — a seat Kemp himself passed on running for, to the disappointment of national Republicans who saw him as the best candidate to win.
It was a major political gambit, and one that relies on the governor’s popularity and ability to get Dooley over the finish line against a MAGA loyalist in Rep. Mike Collins and then against a strong Democratic incumbent. Early Sunday morning, Trump raised the stakes: He finally got off the sidelines and endorsed Collins, turning the Senate runoff into something of a proxy war between two of the most influential figures in Georgia politics.
Hours later, Kemp stepped into the other marquee contest in the state, endorsing Lt. Gov. Burt Jones — the Trump-backed Republican — to succeed him in the governor’s mansion.
Now, thanks to the late slate of endorsements, the governor finds himself both at odds with an increasingly influential president in the Senate race and aligned with him in the governor’s race — teeing up a complicated trial of his influence.
Tuesday’s runoff will determine the viability of Kemp’s brand of Republican politics, one willing to look beyond the conservative red meat of a MAGA Republican primary with an eye toward winning back independent and swing voters in the general election. Even when that means he’s at odds with Trump’s wishes.
The governor’s race is complicated further by billionaire Rick Jackson’s flood of spending, which quickly transformed him from a little-known candidate to one of the contest’s two leading contenders.
“Both [Jones and Dooley] face opponents with strong outside support or appeal, so the results will show how much pull Kemp still has in the Georgia GOP,” said one Georgia Republican unaffiliated with either race granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Demonstrating [his] pull will be key to any Kemp case for 2028, which would necessarily include proving he takes Georgia off the table for us as a battleground state.”
In a sign of his clout in the state, the candidates — with the exception of Collins — all featured the popular governor in campaign runoff ads, drawing him into the mix even before he officially endorsed.
“Everything I’m doing is to make sure we win in November. I’ve been very clear about that,” Kemp said at a Monday morning press conference with Dooley. “Making sure that we have the right people at the top of the ticket who can win.”
Republicans wanted Kemp to run. Instead, he put his political capital behind Dooley.
Tuesday’s runoffs come at a pivotal moment in which Kemp has largely sidestepped questions about his future, but is seen both in Georgia and nationally as a potential 2028 presidential contender as the Republican Party makes its first steps into a post-Trump future. Kemp’s approval rating hovers around 60 percent — roughly 20 points higher than Trump’s in a rapidly evolving battleground.
Many Georgia Republicans had hoped that Kemp, a popular figure, would run for the Senate seat himself — a nod to his unique strength in a finicky state, where candidates have to win with a broad coalition of voters to succeed in statewide races like he did during his reelection in 2022.
“If Kemp had jumped into this race, it would already be a seat that Republicans were counting as a flip,” said Ryan Mahoney, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and former aide to Kemp.
Instead, Republicans got a crowded field and a primary marked by bitter intraparty fighting as Ossoff kept his powder dry and amassed a significant war chest ahead of a competitive general election. The GOP’s original bullishness on flipping the blue seat turned into frustration and a feeling that Ossoff was proving more and more difficult to vanquish.
Before Trump’s last minute foray into the race, the Republican Senate contest had been marked by Kemp’s hands-on presence for Dooley, who the governor has repeatedly touted as an electable political outsider who could build the big-tent coalition needed to win. Kemp appeared at dozens of campaign stops across the state and activated his deep network of donors for his longtime friend and hand-picked candidate.
Dooley was still polling in a consistent third place for the majority of the primary — but Kemp continued to appear with him across the state, and Hardworking Americans Inc., a Kemp-aligned federal PAC, went on to spend $2 million on ads, including one featuring the governor giving a straight-to-camera pitch for Dooley. The candidate ended up finishing in a solid second place, besting Rep. Buddy Carter to make the runoff — a significant win for Kemp’s political machine.
And while Collins dominated in rural areas of the state, and Carter in his southwestern congressional district around Savannah, Dooley’s base of support emerged from the all-important metro Atlanta area.
“Dooley clearly had momentum, and that momentum showed up at the ballot box,” Mahoney said. “That momentum was fueled by Brian Kemp, and, more specifically, Brian Kemp to camera pushing people to vote for Derek.”
But there are looming questions over Kemp’s ability to pull Dooley across the finish line in the second round of voting.
Collins had already secured support from several MAGA-aligned groups before Trump left his mark on the contest, including the powerful Club for Growth and Turning Point Action.
Trump’s endorsement put the final stamp on that dynamic of MAGA vs. Kemp, solidifying the House Republican as the carrier of the populist right’s mantle in the race and putting the president in direct opposition to the governor.
“Mike is a special guy, a special congressman, a special person, and so I’d like to have everybody go out and get out and vote for this man. We love Georgia,” Trump said in a tele-rally with Collins late on Monday afternoon from France ahead of his appearance at the G7. “Mike is so important.”
But Trump’s late support for Collins comes with its own warning signs, harkening back to an embarrassing loss from earlier this month, when Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) came up short in his run for governor after winning the president’s support just a handful of days prior.
Early voting had already closed by the time Trump endorsed Collins on Sunday, creating a narrow window for him to capitalize on the president’s coveted backing.
Trump and Kemp align in governor’s race — against an influx of cash
While the Senate contest pits the president against Kemp, the two will also be tested in the vastly different race for governor.
That contest will show whether the two leaders’ combined influence can outmatch the power of over $100 million in spending from Jackson, whose deluge of cash has upended the contest since his splashy entrance in February.
Kemp had loomed large over the contest, as both candidates tried to tie themselves to the popular governor. Shortly after the May primary, Jackson aired an ad that appeared to imply he had won the governor’s support. That ad backfired, contributing to Kemp’s decision on Sunday to back Jones, according to a person familiar with the governor’s thinking and granted anonymity to speak candidly about the endorsement.
A spokesperson for Kemp referred Blue Light News to the governor’s press conference with Jones, during which he said lieutenant governor was the only pick “to make sure that Georgia remains the best place to live, work, and raise a family.” Jones had “been a trusted ally in that effort, being there every step of the way,” Kemp said.
Kemp’s decision to weigh in on the race came together in fairly quick succession. The lieutenant governor’s team was told around lunchtime on Sunday that Kemp was preparing to endorse Jones, according to a person familiar with the conversation between the two camps, granted anonymity to discuss campaign matters. Kemp’s backing was made public later that afternoon in a lengthy statement posted to social media.
Jones had already secured the president’s support almost as soon as he got into the race and has long touted his close relationship with the president. But it was Kemp’s backing that he said could cement his runoff win and propel him into the general election.
“I can’t say enough about how appreciative [Georgia Second Lady Jan Jones] and I are for this endorsement from the governor and the first lady. We think that this is exactly what’s going to put us over the top,” Jones said in a press conference Monday alongside the governor.
The candidate also released an ad on Monday featuring the governor and first lady Marty Kemp praising him as a “strong ally” and highlighting their partnership over the last several years.
“The real endorsement is tomorrow. It’s with the people of this state. And they’re going to decide who they want at the top of the ticket,” Kemp said at his morning appearance with Dooley.
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Trump questioned Mike Collins about his hardline abortion stance before endorsing him
President Donald Trump’s 11th-hour endorsement of Rep. Mike Collins early Sunday morning surprised even some of the Georgia Republican’s aides and advisers, who thought a tense White House meeting had all but ended his chances of securing the president’s support.
In that meeting just weeks earlier, Trump repeatedly raised Collins’ hardline stance on abortion, pressing him on how he could win in a general election for Georgia’s marquee Senate race, according to three people familiar with the meeting, granted anonymity to speak about the private discussions.
The late May sit-down was dominated by the issue of abortion, the people said. Those close to Collins walked away thinking that getting Trump’s endorsement was unlikely. One person close to the White House and familiar with the meeting said it was consistent with how the president typically works through key issues with potential endorsees before making a decision.
The interaction underscores how questions over electability are top of mind for the president this cycle, especially in a critical battleground, and as abortion remains a political vulnerability for the GOP.
Yet on Sunday, the president publicly backed Collins in the early hours of his 80th birthday in a post on Truth Social, upending the GOP Senate runoff in its closing days and delivering a blow to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s candidate of choice, former college football coach Derek Dooley.
Collins and Trump spoke shortly before the president issued his 1 a.m. endorsement, two people familiar with the call said. The post shocked some Collins aides, who woke up to the news.
Abortion has been a thorn in Trump’s side politically in recent years. He’s faced criticism from anti-abortion advocates for not doing enough to advance their agenda, while trying to avoid alienating the broader electorate on an issue that has proven to be political dynamite for Democrats in recent cycles.
As Republicans prepare for political headwinds in November, they are trying to avoid some of the electability problems that plagued some 2022 midterm campaigns — especially in Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has since emerged as a formidable opponent.
During a 2022 debate for his current House seat, Collins said, “I have always stated and I’ve always been and always will be 100 percent pro-life, period. No exceptions,” a position that put him to the right of Trump on the politically potent issue of abortion.
But Collins represents a deep-red district. Running statewide, in a major battleground state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate in a decade, he’s shifted his position.
Asked recently on the campaign trail about his views on abortion, Collins said he supports “Georgia’s heartbeat law, which includes exceptions, 100 percent,” according to a video of the remarks obtained by Blue Light News. Georgia’s current abortion law bans the procedure in most cases after about six weeks — with exceptions in cases of rape, incest or to protect the life of the mother.
Trump’s concerns about Collins’ strict stance were not unfounded. Polling shows large majorities of Americans oppose bans that include no exceptions for rape or incest.
The president’s reluctance to get off the sidelines in Georgia’s Senate runoff loomed over the contest for months. His backing has been a pivotal factor in other Republican primaries this cycle, often providing candidates with a decisive boost.
Both Collins and Dooley spent weeks jockeying for Trump’s support. The endorsement is expected to provide a late boost to Collins — though it arrived after early voting had already concluded and just days before the runoff, giving him less time to capitalize on it.
Conversations between Collins and the White House began the same night that he advanced to the runoff last month, according to a person familiar with the talks, granted anonymity to discuss private details at the time.
Collins had already lined up support from groups aligned with the president’s MAGA movement. Club for Growth PAC, the powerful GOP super PAC closely allied with Trump, backed Collins early in the primary. He also touted support from Turning Point Action and close allies of the president like Rep. Brian Jack (R-Ga.), a former top adviser.
Trump further reaffirmed his support for Collins in a tele-rally late Monday afternoon from France, where he had arrived ahead of his meetings at the G7.
“Mike is a special guy, a special congressman, a special person, and so I’d like to have everybody go out and get out and vote for this man. We love Georgia, you know,” Trump said, pivoting to swipe at Dooley for not voting in 2016 or 2020, and for making a comment in which he correctly said that Trump lost the 2020 election in Georgia.
“He said he didn’t think I won the election in 2020, and I won it by a lot,” Trump falsely claimed.
Dooley and Kemp, asked about the president’s endorsements in a Monday morning press conference, both demurred. “A vote for Mike Collins is a vote for Jon Ossoff. A vote for me is a vote for the people of Georgia,” Dooley said.
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