The U.S. government is on track to reach its $41.1 trillion debt limit next year — likely between late winter and mid-summer, a trusted independent forecaster predicted Thursday.

The new projection comes from the Bipartisan Policy Center, which used the latest data on U.S. cash flow to predict when the nation will again risk defaulting on its billions of dollars in loans, after Republicans acted last summer to raise the limit by $5 trillion through their One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Now the next Congress and President Donald Trump will need to enact a new law to further raise or waive the borrowing cap, in order to stave off an unprecedented U.S. debt default many economists predict would depress the global economy.

Once the debt limit is reached, the Treasury Department begins what it calls “extraordinary measures” to tap cash reserves and use accounting maneuvers that keep the U.S. from breaching the ceiling. Those cash conservation tactics are likely to buy another six to nine months, the nonpartisan think tank predicts.

Voting to allow the federal government to rack up more red ink comes with growing political risk for U.S. elected officials as the country’s debt eclipses its gross domestic product and voters increasingly voice concern about the U.S. deficit.

Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper predicted earlier this year that federal debt held by the public will rise from more than 100 percent of GDP this year to 120 percent in a decade, far exceeding the previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946. At the same time, new polling shows that more U.S. adults now view the deficit as a bigger problem than they did a year ago, as the United States is on track to spend $2 trillion more than it takes in during the current fiscal year.

Senators voted to confirm Todd Blanche for Deputy Attorney General in early 2025, but there’s no guarantee they will now vote to install him as the nation’s chief law enforcement officer.

Blanche, now serving as acting Attorney General, faces a potentially rocky path through the Senate, with multiple key Republicans not immediately committing to supporting President Donald Trump’s expected nominee to run the Department of Justice.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Thursday it was “hard to say” if Blanche would have a hard time getting confirmed to succeed Pam Bondi, who was ousted from the position back in April.

“Most of our members are pretty deferential to who the president wants in some of these key positions,” Thune said, but added, “this is an environment where nothing’s a safe or sure bet these days.”

Trump’s nominees can lose three Republican votes and still be confirmed by calling in Vice President JD Vance to break a tie.

But the bigger hurdle could be getting Blanche through the Senate Judiciary Committee, where opposition from one Republican is enough to bottle up a nomination unless the nominee can also get help from Democrats on the panel. It’s not likely Blanche would get that bipartisan support.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is viewed as the critical vote for Blanche to win over on the Judiciary Committee. Tillis has vowed he won’t support Justice Department nominees who he views as sympathetic those who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and previously told Blue Light News that the Justice Department’s “Anti-Weaponization Fund” would be a factor in whether or not an attorney general nominee is able to be confirmed.

Blanche told House appropriators Tuesday that the Trump administration would not go forward with administering payouts to individuals deemed victims of “lawfare” by the federal government. But the attempt to establish such an account has continued to present a political problem for Republicans, with many seeing Blanche as the face of the effort.

“What we need to do right now is focus on the [Anti-Weaponization] Fund, or he’s not going to have a very good time in Judiciary Committee,” Tillis, will retire after the end of this year, told reporters when asked about Blanche’s forthcoming nomination. “Just think about what the Democrats would do to him.”

Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, another Senate Judiciary Republican, said of Blanche’s chances, “I think it depends on his answers to questions that I intend to ask him at the Judiciary Committee.”

“The attorney general is not the president’s private lawyer, so it’s sort of by its nature, it’s a really hard job to do, but I want to make sure he understands the difference and is committed to making sure that the law is enforced,” Cornyn said.

Cornyn, like Tillis, has little left to lose by breaking with the president: He won’t be standing for reelection this fall after losing his primary late last month.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), who also sits on the Senate Judiciary, said “I really don’t know” when asked if he thought Blanche could get through committee or be confirmed by the full Senate.

“I’m keeping an open mind,” he said.

Pentagon officials would have five days to tell Congress why senior uniformed military leaders had been dismissed or fired under a provision adopted by a House panel Thursday.

The move comes after the sudden firing of multiple top officers under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s tenure that have stoked bipartisan concerns that the Pentagon is forcing out experienced officers with little to no explanation.

Most recently, the firing of the widely popular Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George stoked outrage from Republicans and Democrats alike.

But numerous top officers have been abruptly dismissed since President Donald Trump’s return to office — including former Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown and top officers in the Navy and Coast Guard, as well as the heads of U.S. Southern and Cyber Commands, among other top posts.

Committee action: The new requirement, included in the House Armed Services Committee’s draft of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, was introduced by Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) and would mandate a report “that describes the performance concerns, actions, or inactions of that officer that are cause for such removal, transfer, or relief of duty.’’

The committee approved the provision by a bipartisan voice vote without objections.

Look ahead: Committee members were expected to debate additional amendments to the policy bill throughout Thursday, including other measures from Democrats that needle Hegseth’s leadership.

The provision still faces a long path before becoming law. Both the full House and Senate will have to pass the language before it heads to the president for signature, a process that is expected to take until sometime this fall at the earliest.

Pentagon silence: But its inclusion among uncontroversial amendments to the sweeping authorization bill represents a rebuke of Hegseth’s personnel moves and the lack of information provided to Congress about the rationale for them.

During an appearance before the committee in April, Hegseth declined to give reasons for George’s departure “out of respect to these officers.” He added that “we don’t talk about the nature of that, and we all serve at the pleasure of the president.”