Congress
US will breach debt ceiling between July and October unless Congress acts, forecasters warn
The U.S. is most likely to default on its $36 trillion national debt sometime between mid-July and early October if Congress doesn’t act, the Bipartisan Policy Center predicted Monday.
On Capitol Hill, the trusted forecast from the nonpartisan think tank is crucial to the GOP’s legislative agenda. Republican leaders are now trying to decide whether to increase the debt limit in their behemoth party-line package or to instead begin bipartisan negotiations with Democrats. Some Republican lawmakers have said they hope a debt limit forecast might inspire President Donald Trump to finally start focusing on the issue.
It’s the first public prediction of a range for the so-called X-date since the Treasury Department began deploying “extraordinary measures” to free up more cash after the debt ceiling was reinstated on Jan. 1. The new analysis is likely to quell concerns among some top lawmakers who previously warned that the U.S. could default on its debt as soon as May.
GOP leaders could use the fiscal cliff to heighten the urgency to pass the party-line package they hope to enact this year to extend trillions of dollars in tax breaks, along with hundreds of billions of dollars in new border security and military spending. Trying to handle the debt limit through the party-line process could also complicate top Republicans’ efforts to build support around the package, since many fiscal conservatives are reluctant to vote for increasing U.S. borrowing authority.
Debt limit forecasters are expected to release a narrower X-date prediction after most tax receipts have landed at the IRS in April. While it’s “quite unlikely,” there is still a possibility that the U.S. could run out of borrowing power in early June if that gush of tax revenue comes in far below projections, the Bipartisan Policy Center cautioned.
The cost-cutting efforts of the Department of Government Efficiency effort headed by Elon Musk could also affect cashflow enough to change the X-date prediction, along with the strength of the economy, tariffs and any new spending or cuts Congress approves, the center said.
Besides regular tax season, there are several other points in the calendar year when a substantial amount of cash is freed up. That includes quarterly tax receipts in mid-June, which produce tens of billions of dollars from corporations and self-employed people, along with a move the Treasury Department can make in late June to extract more borrowing power from a key federal retirement fund, followed by another quarterly tax deadline in mid-September.
Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper, the Congressional Budget Office, plans to release its debt limit forecast on Wednesday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has told lawmakers he plans to send his own projection in the first half of May.
Todd Blanche picked up an important GOP vote Tuesday for his nomination as attorney general — Sen. John Curtis of Utah — likely leaving him just one vote shy of securing confirmation.
Curtis said in a statement he plans to “support” Blanche and was pleased with the nominee’s “receptivity and understanding” of issues raised, including ending the “Anti-Weaponization Fund” created under a May settlement Blanche brokered between the IRS and President Donald Trump.
The announcement came moments after the Senate Judiciary Committee voted on party lines to advance Blanche’s nomination to the full Senate.
Crucial to that vote was Blanche agreeing in writing that the $1.8 billion payout fund was nullified and that another aspect of the settlement — an IRS audit immunity agreement — was scaled back. That gave GOP Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and Thom Tillis of North Carolina enough comfort to vote for Blanche.
The remaining undecided Republican senators are Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. All three said Tuesday they are still grappling with their decisions.
“I’m still considering everything,” Collins said. “I watched part of the markup this morning to hear some of the statements, but I don’t have any decision to share with you right now.”
Murkowski declined to say how she would vote, and Cassidy told reporters that he had “nothing about Todd Blanche” to say.
Cornyn said he has already spoken with Collins and Murkowski and that additional conversations are expected.
“Senator Collins, she’s one of the most diligent individuals I know, certainly here in the United States Senate, and we had a good conversation.” Cornyn said. “She’ll have to speak for herself as to her ultimate conclusion. And I’ve also been exchanging messages with Senator Murkowski, and I know we’ll have further conversations about this.”
Jordain Carney and Calen Razor contributed to this report.
Democrats on the Budget Committee were frustrated by Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) first turn with the gavel after the new chair rebutted each of their remarks.
“Welcome to the chairmanship, but I find you are turning this into a debate committee and not a budget committee,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said during the Tuesday hearing on Medicaid.
Johnson, who took over chair after the unexpected passing of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) last month, fact checked Democrats on the committee after their allotted question time, which got on the nerves of his colleagues.
Ranking Member Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) said near the end of the hearing that rebuttals by the chair aren’t “customary.”
Johnson, a frequent critic of the Medicaid program, defended his approach, which he said makes the hearings more “informative.” He sparred with Democrats on Tuesday over the impact of Medicaid cuts included in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as well as Medicaid fraud and spending growth.
“I keep my comments pretty short,” he said. “There are important points to be made, and I will continue to do that. I hope it doesn’t offend my Democratic colleagues, but that will be my contention here.”
Rep. Max Miller, facing allegations of domestic abuse from his ex-wife, said he would ask the House Ethics Committee to investigate the claims in an attempt to clear his name.
“In light of all the renewed interest in my family affairs I am going to file my own paperwork for an ethics investigation into myself to clear my name from these horrific attacks on myself and family,” the Ohio Republican said in an X post. “I have absolutely nothing to hide.”
Miller is facing calls to resign after GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno, the father of Miller’s ex-wife Emily Moreno, said he should not serve in the House and should “seek professional help.”
Miller has denied allegations of domestic abuse from Emily Moreno. He attempted to defend himself Sunday in a livestreamed monologue and by publishing a trove of documents related to the divorce. Those documents included an “intimate image” of their daughter, which Miller’s lawyer Aaron Minc said he uploaded by mistake.
A spokesperson for Emily Moreno did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Miller’s request for a House Ethics investigation. A committee spokesperson also did not immediately respond.
Miller said he would provide the panel with “all necessary documents needed for a detail examination.” It is unlikely the committee, which historically works slowly, would make any assessment ahead of the November midterm election where he is facing a strong Democratic challenger.
“The accusations continue to change, but my facts stay the same,” Miller said. “I am looking forward to my colleagues reading everything for themselves.”
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