Congress
US debt forecast to hit $64T in a decade as Trump policies widen deficit
The U.S. national debt is on track to reach $64 trillion within a decade as the federal government continues its trend of red-ink balances under President Donald Trump and Republican control of Congress.
The Congressional Budget Office released its marquee report Wednesday on the U.S. fiscal outlook, estimating that the tax and spending package Republicans enacted last summer — along with Trump’s immigration policies — will increase deficits by trillions of dollars over the next decade. That budget gap would essentially cancel out the roughly $3 trillion in deficit reduction Trump’s tariffs are expected to produce.
Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper predicts that the U.S. will run a $1.9 trillion deficit during the current fiscal year as the national debt currently exceeds $38 trillion. The annual deficit is then forecast to grow to $3.1 trillion by 2036.
Growing interest costs and spending on safety-net programs drives the expanding gap between how much money flows into federal coffers each year and how much is doled out.
Debt compared to economic output is also on track to soar in the coming years. CBO predicts that federal debt held by the public will rise from 101 percent of gross domestic product this year to 120 percent in a decade, exceeding the previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946.
As the CBO predicted last summer, the Republican megabill Trump signed into law in July will help boost economic growth this year. But that will be partially offset by the economic effects of Trump’s tariffs and increased immigration enforcement.
House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar has formally announced his bid for House majority whip.
“With a Democratic majority, we’ll have the tools to rein in this out-of-control administration and investigate the agencies, officials and corporations that have been making life harder and more expensive for our communities,” the California Democrat wrote in a letter to colleagues Thursday. “I look forward to working with each of you to deliver on our affordability agenda.”
Aguilar is currently unopposed for the No. 3 slot in the new House Democratic majority.
As whip, Aguilar will have to stitch together an ideologically diverse caucus that could be as large as 260 members. With such a significant margin, Aguilar would have more cushion to lose votes on key legislation than Republican leaders, who have struggled to wrangle their members on party-line bills over the last two years.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York and Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts have already announced their candidacies for speaker and majority leader, respectively. They also have no challengers at this time.
Rep. French Hill, a senior Republican who barely won reelection in Little Rock this week, said President Donald Trump’s “unfavorability” is to blame for sweeping GOP losses.
The Associated Press called the race for Hill on Thursday after the six-term lawmaker and House Financial Services Committee chair faced off against Democrat Chris Jones. Hill won by less than 2 percentage points.
“President Trump’s unfavorability had a lot of impact on races across the country,” Hill said in an interview. “I think that’s evident by some of the exit polling. We had, in my judgment, recruited good candidates who had good funding for their campaigns. But it was a wave election, and we lost a lot of really good, constructive members of the House.”
It was the closest race yet for Hill, who struggled to win even as he outspent Jones, a former Arkansas gubernatorial candidate, 3 to 1. As House Financial Services chair, Hill has been instrumental the last two years in enacting bipartisan housing and cryptocurrency legislation.
During the campaign, Hill was willing to distance himself from Trump, especially when it came to touting the housing bill that the president refused to sign.
In the interview Wednesday, Hill suggested that Republicans could break further with Trump during the final two years of his term.
“He will be considered a lame duck, and that often has members of both political parties looking out at who will be the standard-bearers in the 2028 presidential election,” he said. “So, I think certainly that will influence policymaking and politics inside the House and Senate.”
Rep. Katherine Clark of Massachusetts officially announced her bid for majority leader in a letter to colleagues Thursday.
Clark, currently the No. 2 to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, is widely considered a shoo-in among her colleagues. She is currently unopposed, and if she wins, she would be the first woman with the title and most progressive member of the top leadership trio that is also expected to include Jeffries as speaker and Rep. Pete Aguilar as whip.
In line with leadership’s campaign message, Clark emphasized “Affordability, Affordability, Affordability” in her pitch to the caucus. Specifically, she named “ending the reckless war in Iran, rescinding Trump’s tariffs, reversing Republicans’ catastrophic cuts to healthcare and food assistance, curing off their giveaways to the Epstein Class, and pursuing rigorous oversight of this corrupt administration.”
To wrangle House Democrats’ massive majority — which is tracking to reach over 255 seats — Clark vowed to members: “At every decision point, I intend to work closely with you to understand the needs of your district and maximize your ability to deliver for your constituents.”
“Democrats will succeed by working as a team.” she added.
Clark will get a vote during House Democratic leadership elections scheduled for Nov. 18 and 19.
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