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The Dictatorship

Trump’s strength, Democrats’ message and the shutdown effect. What to watch on Election Day 2025

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Trump’s strength, Democrats’ message and the shutdown effect. What to watch on Election Day 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats dominated the first major Election Day since President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

And while a debate about the future of the Democratic Party may have only just begun, there are signs that the economy — specifically, Trump’s inability to deliver the economic turnaround he promised last fall — may be a real problem for Trump’s GOP heading into next year’s higher-stakes midterm elections.

Democrats on Tuesday won governor’s races in Virginia and New Jerseythe only states electing new chief executives this year. They also swept a trio of state Supreme Court contests in swing-state Pennsylvania and ballots measures from Colorado to Maine.

Trump was largely absent from the campaign trail, but GOP candidates closely aligned themselves with the president, betting that his big win last year could provide a path to victory this time. They were wrong.

Democrats are hoping the off-year romp offers a new winning playbook, but some caution may be warranted. Tuesday’s elections were limited to a handful of states, most of which lean blue, and the party that holds the White House typically struggles in off-year elections.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Washington may be more excited than Democrats that a self-described democratic socialist will become New York City’s next mayor.

Here’s some top takeaways:

A new Democratic playbook emerges

Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia governor’s race Tuesday, defeating Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to give Democrats a victory heading into the 2026 midterm elections and make history as the first woman ever to lead the commonwealth.

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger will become Virginia’s next governor — and its first female chief executive — while Rep. Mikie Sherrill won the New Jersey governor’s office by running campaigns focused largely on the economy, public safety and health care.

Early results showed Democrats outperforming their margins from four years ago in fast-growing suburbs, rural areas and even places with high concentrations of military voters.

The Democrats won by actively distancing themselves from some of the Democratic Party’s far-left policies and emphasized what Spanberger described in her victory speech as “pragmatism over partisanship.”

A growing collection of Democratic leaders believe the moderate approach holds the key to the party’s revival after the GOP won the White House and both congressional chambers last year.

Above all, the Democrats in both states focused on rising costs such as groceries, energy and health care, which Trump has struggled to control.

In addition to tacking to the middle on economic issues, Spanberger and Sherrill downplayed their support for progressive priorities, including LGBTQ rights and resistance against Trump’s attack on American institutions. Spanberger rarely even mentioned Trump’s name on the campaign trail.

Both also have resumes that appealed to the middle.

Spanberger is a former CIA case officer who spent years abroad working undercover, while Sherrill spent a decade as an active-duty helicopter pilot for the Navy before entering Congress. Both played up their public safety backgrounds as a direct response to the GOP’s attack that Democrats are soft on crime.

It’s (still) the economy, stupid

Trump and his Republican allies have been especially focused on immigration, crime and conservative cultural issues.

But voters who decided Tuesday’s top elections were more concerned about the economy, jobs and costs of living. That’s according to the AP Voter Poll, an expansive survey of more than 17,000 voters in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City suggesting that many voters felt they can’t get ahead financially in today’s economy.

Ironically, the same economic anxieties helped propel Trump to the White House just one year ago. Now, the economic concerns appear to be undermining his party’s political goals in 2025 — and could be more problematic for the GOP in next year’s midterm elections, which will decide the balance of power for Trump’s final two years in office.

That’s even as Trump regularly brags about stock prices booming and boasted about leading a new renaissance of American manufacturing.

About half of Virginia voters said the economy was the most important issue facing their state while most New Jersey voters said either taxes or the economy were the top issue in their state. Just over half of New York City voters said cost of living was their top concern.

It was unclear whether kitchen table concerns weighing so heavily on voters might help break the impasse that has prompted the government shutdown, which has spanned more than a month.

A referendum on Trump

This was the first election since Trump’s return to the presidency and voters rejected candidates and causes aligned with his Republican Party from Virginia and Pennsylvania to Maine and New Jersey. It was, in fact, difficult to point to any significant victory for Trump’s party.

They also expressed strong feelings about the direction of the country under his leadership.

About 6 in 10 voters in Virginia and New Jersey said they are “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today, according to the AP Voter Poll. Just one-third said they are “enthusiastic” or “satisfied.”

In a sign of the extent of the GOP’s struggles, Republicans lost the Virginia attorney general’s race to Democrat Jay Jones, who was forced to apologize after text messages surfaced weeks before Election Day in which he depicted the murder of political opponents.

Fearing a bad night, Trump tried to distance himself from the election results.

The president endorsed Ciattarelli in New Jersey but held only a pair of tele-town halls on his behalf, including one Monday night. Trump also did a Monday night tele-town hall for Virginia Republican candidates, but he focused mostly in favor of the GOP candidate for attorney general, who also lost.

Despite Trump’s distance, his policies — including his “big, beautiful” budget bill and his massive cuts to the federal workforce — played a central role in Virginia, New Jersey and even New York City’s mayoral contest. And the Republicans in each refused to distance themselves from the president or his agenda.

The results left the president ducking blame.

“TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,” according to pollsters, he posted on his social media account.

Trump planned to have breakfast Wednesday at the White House with Senate Republicans who have so far opposed his calls to end the shutdown by abandoning the legislative filibuster, the 60-vote minimum needed to pass most major legislation though the Senate.

A new star for Democrats (and Republicans) in New York City

Zohran Mamdani was elected New York City mayor Tuesday, capping his meteoric rise to national prominence. The 34-year-old democratic socialist will make history as the city’s first Muslim mayor – and its youngest in more than a century.

Moderates won in Virginia and New Jersey. But it was a self-described democratic socialist who cruised to victory in New York City.

Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old state legislator who backs radical changes to address economic inequality, will serve as the next mayor of the nation’s largest city.

His bold agenda and inspirational approach helped generate the largest turnout in a New York City mayoral race in at least three decades. It also spooked some business leaders and voices in the Jewish community, who otherwise support Democrats but oppose some of Mamdani’s past statements about personal wealth accumulation and Israel.

Trump, who actually endorsed Mamdani’s independent opponent, former Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, falsely called Mamdani a communist on the eve of the election.

Some Republicans in Washington were quietly rooting for a Mamdani victory. Even before his win was final, Republican campaign committees launched attack ads against more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and New Jersey linking them to Mamdani and his far-left politics.

The ad campaign is expected to extend to Democrats across the country ahead of next year’s midterms.

More Democratic wins

California voters approved new congressional district boundaries Tuesday, delivering a victory for Democrats in the state-by-state redistricting battle that will help determine which party wins control of the U.S. House in 2026

The Democratic successes extended beyond Virginia, New Jersey and New York.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats swept all three elections for state supreme court justices. The wins could have implications for key cases involving redistricting and balloting for midterm elections — and the 2028 presidential race — in the nation’s most populous swing state.

Conservative causes struggled on ballot questions in other states as well.

Maine voters defeated a measure that would have mandated showing an ID at the polls while approving a “red flag” rule meant to make it easier for family members to petition a court to restrict a potentially dangerous person’s access to guns.

Colorado approved raising taxes on people earning more than $300,000 to fund school meal programs and food assistance for low-income state residents.

And in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom, frequently mentioned as a 2028 presidential hopeful, led a triumphant charge to redraw congressional maps to give Democrats as many as five more House seats in upcoming elections.

The push is the centerpiece of a Democratic effort to counter new Republican maps in Texas and elsewhere that were drawn to boost the GOP’s chances in next year’s fight to control Congress. For the new maps to count in 2026, however, Californians had to vote on a yes-or-no ballot question known as Proposition 50. It was easily approved.

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The Dictatorship

Takeaways from Trump’s trip to China

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Takeaways from Trump’s trip to China

BEIJING (AP) — For three days in China, President Donald Trump was unusually quiet, not speaking to reporters much and even mostly staying off social media. Then he got on his plane home and unloaded.

Trump’s trip was unexpectedly dominated by discussions about Taiwan and the notion that Washington and Beijing could adopt a new framework for managing their complicated relationship.

Chinese President Xi Jinping kicked off the whirlwind visit with a warning: If Washington mishandles its relations with the self-governing island of Taiwan, the U.S. and China could end up clashing or even in open conflict.

Trump did not respond publicly, refraining from mentioning Taiwan while in Beijing. But he suggested aboard Air Force One on his way home that Xi’s staunch opposition might make him rethink a planned U.S. arms sale to Taipei.

Among the other topics of discussion were trade and the U.S. and Israel’s war in Iranwhich had been expected to take up most of the attention. Trump spent the trip overtly flattering China’s leader, despite Xi not reciprocating.

And the president did not push back publicly on China’s characterization that he and Xi had agreed to a “constructive” new vision for dealing with their relationship issues.

Here are key takeaways from Trump’s trip:

Trump held his tongue on Taiwan — until he was headed home

Before the trip, Trump demonstrated greater ambivalence toward Taiwan in his second term, raising questions about whether he might be open to dialing back support for the island democracy that Beijing views as its breakaway province.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted there was no change in the U.S. approach to Taiwan. But there was always a risk that Trump — not known for diplomatic nuance — might make an off-the-cuff remark that could have mammoth ramifications for Taiwan.

In the end, Trump said nothing publicly about Taiwan, even as his Chinese counterpart suggested the island was the most important aspect of U.S.-China relations.

But then, pressed by reporters after leaving China, Trump said he had not yet made a decision on whether to carry through with a major arms package sale he previously approved for Taiwan after hearing Xi’s objections.

Trump’s Republican administration in December authorized an $11 billion weapons package for Taipei, but it has yet to move forward. Lawmakers also approved a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan in January, but the sale cannot advance until Trump formally sends it to Congress.

“President Xi and I talked a lot about Taiwan,” Trump told reporters on the presidential plane. He said China’s leader “does not want to see a fight for independence because that would be a very strong confrontation.”

“I heard him out,” Trump said. But “I didn’t make a comment.”

Trump appeared to struggle to recall the name of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and noted of Washington’s policy toward the island, “The last thing we need right now is a war that’s 9,500 miles away.”

Asked if he would consider intervening militarily if China were to attack Taiwan, Trump said he did not want to say — a nonanswer that is consistent with long-standing U.S. policy that has become known as strategic ambiguity.

The policy says the U.S. has agreed to ensure Taiwan has the resources to defend itself if China attempts to force a unilateral change, but it does not expressly say how far Washington will go militarily to counter Beijing, should it come to that.

Trump and Xi still talked about Iran

It appears the leaders had substantive talks about the U.S.-spurred conflict in Iran that has led to a surge in global oil prices and that — if extended — could push the world toward recession.

Trump said Xi agrees with him that a nuclear-armed Iran is a bad idea and that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened. He said Xi even offered to help find an endgame to the war.

Xi and Chinese officials have not confirmed that such an offer was made. China has publicly said the solution should “take into account the concerns of all parties on the Iran nuclear issue.”

In Trump’s view, China should be more involved in the resolution to the conflictgiven its dependence on oil and liquefied natural gas coming from the Middle East.

If Trump successfully persuaded Xi to get more engaged, that could be significant for the U.S. effort to find a credible exit from the Iran war.

Xi hailed a new relationship status: strategic stability

China, meanwhile, said the two leaders agreed to a new vision for “a constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the framework would shape ties for at least three years — the rest of Trump’s term — and focus on cooperation, competition within limits and managing differences.

The idea is “to keep the relationship on an even keel,” said Helena Legarda of the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.

George Chen, a partner at The Asia Group consultancy, said the approach can be seen as progress following the era of Trump’s Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, when the relationship was framed as a strategic competition.

Trump says big trade deals are coming but offers few details

Trump brought a large group of top CEOs with him to China, including the head of aircraft maker Boeing; Jensen Huang, chief of semiconductor giant Nvidia; and Elon Muskthe SpaceX boss who once led Trump’s effort to slash the federal workforce.

Trump said major deals had been struck and that China could buy some 200 planes from Boeingbut he left Beijing without announcing anything concrete. Previous suggestions that Xi would commit to big orders of U.S. soybeans and beef were also pending.

Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump suggested that China could eventually buy as many as 750 planes from Boeing if the initial order goes well, and that 450 engines produced by General Electric would be included in such a future purchase if it happens.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the two sides had agreed to establish boards on trade and on investments, to address each other’s concerns on agricultural goods’ market access and to promote expanded trade under a framework of reciprocal tariff reductions.

More details on trade agreements might emerge eventually, but as with all major bilateral accords, the fine print is what matters.

During his first term, Trump used an elaborate signing ceremony before leaving Beijing to cement dozens of deals worth around $250 billion. But not all of what was pledged came to fruition.

Trump repeatedly praised Xi

From the moment Trump opened his mouth in Beijing, he offered nothing but praise for Xi. And it sometimes felt a bit over the top, considering that Xi said nothing similar in return.

Trump called Xi a “great leader” and said they were going to have a “fantastic future together.”

It was an “honor” to be with Xi and to be his friend, Trump said, describing his counterpart as “warm.”

China’s president isn’t known for effusiveness. Trump himself said in a Fox News interview that Xi is “all business.”

Xi did say Trump’s “landmark visit” had deepened mutual trust. But he found more subtle ways to charm Trump. He promised to send seeds to grow roses at the White House like the ones in the garden at Xi’s residence where Trump had tea on Friday.

Xi said he hosted Trump there to reciprocate the hospitality Trump showed him when he visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in 2017.

___

Leung reported from Hong Kong, Mistreanu and Wu from Bangkok, and Superville from Washington.

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Tillis slams Hegseth for ‘impulsive decisions not grounded in reality’

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Tillis slams Hegseth for ‘impulsive decisions not grounded in reality’

Sen. Thom Tillis issued a harsh critique of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his “mediocre yes-men” on Saturday for what the North Carolina Republican called a “careless decision” to force out and downgrade U.S. general officers.

“Hegseth continues to surprise and disrespect our greatest allies and some of our best military professionals with impulsive decisions not grounded in reality or good judgment,” Tillis wrote in a post on X.

Tillis posted his comments in response to new reporting from NOTUS that the Pentagon is planning on downgrading the Army’s top command overseeing Europe and Africa, which the publication attributed to five people familiar with the decision. The Pentagon has not confirmed such plans and did not immediately respond to a request for comment from MS NOW regarding the NOTUS report and Tillis’s rebuke of Hegseth.

The move would come amid a larger restructuring of U.S. forces in Europe, including the halting of troop deployments to Germany and Poland, and reverse the merger of the Army’s European and African commands that was ordered during Trump’s first term.

Tillis also called out Hegseth for his planned replacement of Gen. Christopher Donahue, which was also first reported by NOTUS. The senator called the reported move to replace Donahue, a four-star general best known as the last U.S. servicemember to exit Afghanistan in 2021, “a step that is not in the best interests of our nation or our servicemembers.”

“If the rumors are true that Hegseth is trying to sideline Gen. Christopher Donahue, one of our nation’s finest warfighters, by downgrading U.S. Army Europe-Africa to a 3-star command, he is taking another step down a dangerous path,” Tillis said.

Last month, Hegseth fired Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George — the Army’s top uniformed officer — and two other generals following a purge of other senior military leaders. Tillis said Donahue has “dedicated his entire career to upholding the high standards and warrior ethos that Hegseth claims he is restoring to our ranks.”

Since the North Carolinian announced he would retire from the Senate when his term is up in January, he has become the rare outspoken GOP critic of the Trump administration. He recently held up Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Federal Reserve, only voting to confirm the former financier once the Department of Justice ended its investigation into outgoing Fed chair Jerome Powell.

Tillis was initially a holdout for Hegeth’s Senate confirmation but ultimately supported him, though he became a vocal critic of the defense secretary, telling BLN last summer that Hegseth appeared “out of his depth” atop the department.

“Hegseth would do well to surround himself with more patriots like General Donahue and to get his henchmen, who are not qualified to carry Donahue’s bag, out of the Pentagon,” Tillis said at the end of his post. “Keep your word, Mr. Secretary: choose meritocracy over your mediocre yes-men.”

Adam Hudacek is a desk associate for MS NOW covering national politics in Washington, D.C.

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‘Clobbered’: Trump vows Cassidy will lose Louisiana’s Senate GOP primary

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“Bill Cassidy is a sleazebag, a terrible guy, who is BAD FOR LOUISIANA.”

And so began President Donald Trump’s social media rant on Saturday, fresh off his trip to Chinaback in Washington and waging his revenge tour in full force on a day when fealty to the president is on the ballot in the Bayou State.

“Now he’s going to get CLOBBERED, hopefully, in today’s BIG election, by two great people!!!” the president continued in his Truth Social postasking GOP voters in Louisiana to cast their ballots for Rep. Julia Letlow, R-La., the candidate Trump is backing to win the high-profile Senate GOP primary contest in a key test of his strength within the Republican Party as he seeks to punish Cassidy for his betrayal.

In his first Truth Social post aimed at Cassidy since returning to U.S. soil, Trump pointed to the two-term senator’s biggest sin: His 2021 vote to convict Trump on impeachment charges related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riots.

“Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana is a disloyal disaster. His entire past campaign for the Senate was about ‘TRUMP,’ how he’s with me all the way, and then, after winning, he turned around and voted to IMPEACH me for something that has now proven to be total ‘bullshit!’” Trump wrote.

A third candidate, Louisiana state treasurer John Fleming is also seeking the GOP Senate nomination, and recent polling from Emerson College shows both challengers ahead of Cassidy.

Still, Cassidy has continued to reach out to MAGA voters, saying Friday that the race “is not me versus Donald Trump.”

“If somebody wants someone who can work with President Trump for the good of our country and the good of our state, I’m your candidate,” Cassidy told MS NOW. He did not comment on whether the Republican party has room for those that cross Trump. When asked for comment on the president’s criticism posted Saturday, Cassidy’s campaign responded with a video of Letlow referring to herself as a “progressive leader.”

Cassidy’s battle for political survival illustrates the stark divide within the Republican Party between the establishment and true believers in the MAGA movement.

Richard Logis, a former MAGA activist who defected from Trump’s movement, said Saturday that he believes the MAGA wing of the GOP, which prides itself on being a big-tent party, will continue to splinter as the president’s popularity sinks.

“I do believe that the cracks are there right now,” Logis said on MS NOW’s “The Weekend,” adding, “I think the schisms and the chasms are widening.”

Logis and members of his organization, called Leaving MAGA, are part of a small but vocal community of Republicans mounting an effort to redirect the future of the GOP away from the MAGA movement that Trump created, but their mission faces long odds.

According to polling by YouGov63% of Republicans today identify as MAGA, up from 53% in 2025 and 38% back in 2023, a year after Logis left the movement. However, MAGA identification among registered independent voters remains low in the latest polling data — just 12% — and overall, only one in four voters in the U.S. identifies as MAGA.

Trump has spent much of his second term punishing those within his party who broke with his agenda, including a handful of state senators in Indiana who rejected his push to redraw the state’s congressional map. Of the seven state senators who were challenged by Trump-backed candidates, five lost their reelection bids.

The ideological battle within the GOP came into focus early in Trump’s second term. Multiple Republican lawmakers, including onetime MAGA firebrand former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., either resigned or announced their retirement after breaking with the president.

Greene, who publicly fell out with the president over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, said in January that “MAGA purity tests and loyalty demands are going to cost the Republican Party votes.” She left Congress after Trump labeled her a “traitor” for criticizing his administration’s handling of the Epstein files and backed a GOP primary challenger in her district.

The president’s pattern of political retribution began in force following his departure from the White House in 2021, when he used his influence to oust prominent GOP incumbents who voted for his impeachment or conviction, including former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming.

On Saturday night in Louisiana after the polls have closed and the counting is done, Cassidy, one of three Republican senators remaining who voted to convict Trump, may find out whether he’s joining Cheney in early retirement.

Mychael Schnell and Syedah Asghar contributed to this report.

Adam Hudacek is a desk associate for MS NOW covering national politics in Washington, D.C.

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