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The Dictatorship

Trump’s promises of direct checks to Americans put Republicans in a bind

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Trump’s promises of direct checks to Americans put Republicans in a bind

President Donald Trump is stuck on an idea: sending checks to Americans.

A $2,000 “dividend” check using revenue from his global tariffs campaign. A “DOGE savings” payment using 20% of the proceeds from Elon Musk’s budget-cutting initiative. A health care plan that would funnel money away from Affordable Care Act insurance plans and direct it straight to Americans, who might be able to keep any “money left over.”

The White House has yet to release concrete plans on any of it, though press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday that the administration is “currently exploring all legal options” to issue the $2,000 tariff checks.

And that puts Trump’s Republicans in a dicey spot.

If direct checks are not issued, there’s a political threat if voters get their hopes up waiting for money they don’t receive. “If you make a promise that sounds good to people, and then it sort of just disappears — maybe they’ve not noticed that the first or the second time — but certainly, if you keep doing that, they do,” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist.

But there’s potentially an even bigger risk if checks are issued: They would likely either drive up inflation or, if not, serve as an implicit acknowledgment that the fundamentals of the economy are weaker than White House has suggested.

In a strong economy with low unemployment and healthy consumer spending, adding more money to people’s pockets can add inflationary pressure — which could worsen Americans’ concerns about affordability and the cost of living. Stimulus payments are most effective in a recession or economic downturn with low inflation, high unemployment and weak consumer demand.

Right now, the labor market is showing signs of softening, but consumer spending has remained strong and inflation has cooled enough that the Federal Reserve has started to reduce interest rates.

“The economic situation we face today is not one in which you’d expect the policy response to be direct payments,” said Alex Jacquez, a former National Economic Council official under President Joe Biden. Jacquez defended rounds of stimulus checks by the Biden administration as “fairly standard” for a recession like the one caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Instead, the recent pitches from the president nod at Republicans’ political reality. Exit polls from last week’s elections show that the cost of living remains a top priority for voters.

“To me, this just looks like this is an election ploy,” said Desmond Lachman, an economist at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute. “He’s just seen that people are worried about affordability and they’re not making ends meet. So why don’t you just give them a check?”

The president plans to travel the country later this year and into 2026 to deliver speeches focused on the economy, according to a senior White House official, though the locations have yet to be decided. And despite the president publicly dismissing concerns about affordability, White House staffers have organized meetings to address the issue.

“I want the money to go directly to you, the people,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday night as he signed legislation to reopen the federal government. “So much money is involved, and we’re willing to pay so much money to the people.”

Still, Trump’s nascent proposals face an unclear path forward.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Congress would need to pass legislation on tariff rebate checks. In July, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., introduced a bill to give families of four up to $2,400 from tariff revenue, and though Trump initially said he was thinking about such a proposal, the legislation has remained dormant ever since. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said this week he would draft legislation for direct payments to healthcare-specific accounts. A senior White House official told BLN the administration would have to see the bill before supporting it.

And then there’s the looming Supreme Court decision on Trump’s imposition of tariffs, which threatens to unravel his designs for the “dividend” checks. Without much of its tariff revenue, justifying the cost of rebate checks could prove untenable for Trump. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the proposal’s price tag would be roughly $600 billionbased on a model that excludes people who earn more than $75,000 a year. The government’s total annual income from tariffs amounts to approximately half that amount.

“President Trump remains committed to continuing to deliver on his Day One priority of turning around Joe Biden’s affordability crisis and dead-end economy,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “Self-proclaimed experts should hold on their half-baked analyses until the administration releases concrete policy proposals instead of baselessly speculating what the details of the president’s proposals are.”

Republicans and top administration officials continue to pummel Biden for leaving them with the tailwinds of record inflation. But as Trump has raised the prospect of injecting money into the U.S. economy, Republicans have mostly refrained from expressing worries it could contribute to higher prices.

The consumer price index is now at 3% growth on the year, as of September, and most economists blame supply-chain challenges as the primary driver of persistent inflation, though stimulus policies were likely a contributing factor. In addition to Biden’s stimulus payments, Trump approved stimulus checks of up to $1,200 per person in his first term at the height of the Covid crisis.

Underscoring why sending checks can leave a lasting impression: Even after Trump lost the 2020 presidential election, voters still recalled seeing his signature on pandemic-era stimulus checks. Biden, meanwhile, opted not to sign his name on subsequent slips, which some Democrats believed was a mistake.

I “learned something from Donald Trump; he signed checks for people,” Biden said last year. “I didn’t: stupid.”

This time, it’s unclear whether Trump’s vows on direct payments have permeated the public psyche. Searches for “2000 dollars trump” and “stimulus check 2025” skyrocketed this week, according to Google Trends. But Heye noted that the “sheer volume” of news under Trump means that “most people are not focused on the minute-by-minute” developments of his office.

“Trump knows that,” says Heye. “My guess is because we’ve seen this a million times; we’ll have forgotten about this rather quickly — unless he keeps bringing it up.”

Akayla Gardner is a White House correspondent for BLN.

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The Dictatorship

The Latest: US and Israel attack Iran as Trump says US begins ‘major combat operations’

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The Latest: US and Israel attack Iran as Trump says US begins ‘major combat operations’

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The Dictatorship

‘It’s fantastic’: Trump tells MS NOW he’s seen celebrations after Iran strikes

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President Donald Trump called the celebrations in the streets of Iran “fantastic” following the killing of the country’s supreme leaderAyatollah Ali Khamenei, during a brief phone call with MS NOW on Saturday night.

Trump told MS NOW that he’s seen the celebrations in Iran and in parts of America, after joint U.S.-Israel airstrikes killed Khamenei.

“I think it’s fantastic,” the president said of the celebrations. “I’ve seen them in Los Angeles, also — celebrations.”

“I’ve seen them in Los Angeles, celebrations, celebrations,” Trump said, accentuating the point.

The interview took place roughly 11 hours before the Pentagon announced the first U.S.military casualties of the war. U.S. Central Command said three American service members were killed in action, and five others had been seriously wounded.

Revelry broke out in Iran, the United States and across the globe on Saturday, with Iranians cheering the death of Khamenei, who led Iran with an iron fist for more than 30 years, cracking down on dissent at home and maintaining a hostile posture with the U.S. and Israel.

Asked how he was feeling after the strike on Khamenei, whose death was confirmed just a few hours earlier, Trump said it was a positive development for the United States.

“I think it was a great thing for our country,” he said.

The call — which lasted less than a minute — came after a marathon day, which began in the wee hours of the morning with strikes on Iran and continued with retaliatory ballistic missiles from Tehran targeting Israel and countries in the Middle East region that host U.S. military bases.

The day ended with few answers from the White House to increasing questions about the long-term future of Iran, how long the U.S. will continue operations there, and the metastasizing ramifications it could have on the world stage. In fact, the president has done little to convince the public to back his Iran operation, nor to explain why the country is at war without the authorization of Congress.

On perhaps the most consequential day of his second term, Trump did not give a formal address to the public, nor did he hold a press conference. Instead, he stayed out of public view at Mar-a-Lago, his private club and residence in Palm Beach, Florida, where he attended a $1 million-per-plate fundraising dinner on Saturday evening.

But throughout the day, Trump took calls from reporters at various new outlets, including from MS NOW at around 11 p.m. ET.

The strikes, known formally as “Operation Epic Fury,” came after months of talks over Iran’s nuclear program, and warnings from Trump that he would strike Tehran if they did not agree to his often shifting conditions.

At 2:30 a.m. ET on Saturday, Trump posted a video to social media announcing the operation, which he said was designed to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people.”

“The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war,” Trump said when he announced the strikes on Iran.

Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW.

Laura Barrón-López covers the White House for MS NOW.

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Pentagon announces first American casualties in Iran

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Pentagon announces first American casualties in Iran

Three U.S. service members were killed and five seriously wounded as the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, U.S. Central Command said Sunday morning.

The three service members — the first Americans to die in the conflict — were killed in Kuwait, a U.S. official said.

Several others sustained minor injuries from shrapnel and concussions but will return to duty, the Pentagon said. The identities of the dead and wounded have not been made public.

“The situation is fluid, so out of respect for the families, we will withhold additional information, including the identities of our fallen warriors, until 24 hours after next of kin have been notified,” Central Command said in a statement.

The U.S. and Israel launched sweeping airstrikes on Iranon Saturday, killing Ayatollah Ali Khameneithe country’s supreme leader for nearly four decades. Iran has vowed retaliation and hit several U.S. military bases across the region.

According to U.S. Central Command, Iran has also attacked more than a dozen locations, including airports in Dubai, Kuwait and Iraq, and residential neighborhoods in Israel, Bahrain and Qatar.

Israel Defence Forces said Sunday that Iran fired missiles toward the neighborhood of Beit Shemesh, killing civilians. The missile hit a synagogue, killing at least nine people, according to the Associated Press.

AP reported that authorities said at least 22 people were killed and 120 others wounded when demonstrators tried to attack the U.S. Consulate in Karachi in Pakistan.

The violence came after the United States and Israel attacked Irankilling its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Police and officials at a hospital in Karachi said that at least 50 people were also wounded in the clashes and some of them were in critical condition.

On Sunday, Israel Defence Forces said on X, “It’s official: All senior terrorist leaders of Iran’s Axis of Terror have been eliminated.”

President Donald Trump told CNBC’s Joe Kernen on Sunday that the operation in Iran is “moving along very well, very well — ahead of schedule.”

In a phone call with MS NOW late Saturday, Trump called the celebrations in the streets of Iran “fantastic” following the killing of Khamenei.

Confirming Khamenei’s death, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday: “We have eliminated the tyrant Khamenei and dozens of senior figures of the oppressive regime. Our forces are now striking at the heart of Tehran with increasing intensity, set to escalate further in the coming days.”

The exchange of hostilities comes after weeks of fragile negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over Iran’s nuclear operations.

Esmail Baghaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry, called the joint U.S-Israeli attack an “unprovoked, unwarranted act of aggression” in an interview with MS NOW’s Ali Velshi on Sunday. He said Iran’s nuclear program has been used a pretext for the attack.

“We have every right to defend our people because we have come under this egregious act of aggression,” Baghaei said.

Trump announced the attack early Saturday during a short video posted on his Truth Social account. He called for an end to the Iranian regime and urged Iranians to “take back the country.”

Negotiators and mediators from Oman were supposed to meet in Vienna on Monday to discuss the technical aspect of a potential nuclear deal.

Rep. Eric Swawell, D-Calif., told MS NOW’s Alex Witt on Sunday afternoon that the president’s military operation in Iran was illegal, echoing what many lawmakers have said in citing that under the U.S. Constitution only Congress can declare war.

“This is a values argument. We don’t just lob missiles into other countries when we are not provoked, attacked and have no plan for what comes next,” he said.

“We have been shown zero evidence that anything changed in Iran from last year when the president did not come to Congress and took a strike on Iran,” Swalwell said.

In June the U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear sites. Trump said the facilities had been “completely and totally obliterated.” But experts and U.S. officials said the sites were damaged but not destroyed.

Erum Salam is breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian and is a graduate of Texas A&M University and the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. Follow her on X, Bluesky and Instagram.

Akayla Gardner is a White House correspondent for MS NOW.

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