Donald Trump has been uncharacteristically distant from some of this year’s highest-profile races, going as far as bolstering a flailing Democrat in his hometown mayor’s contest while never uttering the name of Virginia’s Republican candidate for governor.

The endorser-in-chief has mostly avoided the marquee gubernatorial races across the Potomac in Virginia or in New Jersey, where he spends summer weekends golfing at his Bedminster club. He hasn’t set foot in either state for one of his signature campaign rallies. His muted approach is a departure from his usual impulse to throw himself into races across the country, and a sign he tacitly acknowledges Democrats’ relative strength in the first major election since he resumed the White House.

Off-year elections prove an early assessment of each party’s standing heading into the following year’s midterms, when the tide generally turns from the party occupying the White House.

At times, Trump has seemed most interested in the mayoral race in his native New York City — a far less competitive race that democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani appears poised to win.

While the president has yet to mention Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears by name, and only recently waded back into the New Jersey governor’s race to reiterate his support for the GOP contender, in New York City, he all but endorsed Andrew Cuomo — a Democrat forced to run as an independent after losing the primary. Trump warned in a Monday night Truth Social post of Mamdani and disparaging Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.

And in California, where voters will decide on a ballot measure allowing Democrats to redraw congressional maps, Trump has not catalyzed any major effort to counteract Gov. Gavin Newsom’s well-funded campaign — even as the White House aggressively pushes redistricting in red states across the country.

“The president has the ability to drive people out like we’ve never seen in American political history, both for him and against him,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist. “But right now he is not on the ballot, so I think the enthusiasm to go out for his supporters might be a little less, whereas the opposition is equal, if not even more engaged.”

Trump, who readily muses about wanting to pick winners and over the last few days has endorsed dozens of Republicans, understands the potential positive impact of his explicit backing and often wields that power. Perhaps more saliently, he seems to know where his support can do more harm than help. In these two blue–but-GOP-curious states, Trump has toed that line — and likely will continue to until the polls close.

“My take is that those are blue states. It is only interesting when they occasionally have a streak of red,” Bartlett said of Virginia and New Jersey. “So, I just think those should not be in play, maybe ever, certainly now with Trump in the White House.”

In New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who trails Democrat Mikie Sherrill by single digits, has the awkward task of embracing the president’s support to consolidate the right without alienating a fairly moderate statewide electorate.

“Jack Ciattarelli is a WINNER, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement – HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN,” Trump wrote in a mid-May social media post ahead of the primary. Ciattarelli, who was once critical of Trump, rocketed to the nomination the following month.

In the general election, he’s taken a different tack.

Ciattarelli has in some ways fashioned himself as a MAGA-style Republican, participating in a rally on the Jersey Shore with prominent Trump surrogates. Only one notable attendee was missing: Trump.

“You need to max out the Trump coalition as much as you possibly can, but also don’t ignore voters who don’t give Trump the time of the day,” said Jesse Hunt, a former communications director for the Republican Governors Association. “You may need to have voters with negative opinions of Trump to cross over for Jack.”

Democrats have used nearly every opportunity to remind voters of Ciattarelli’s alliance with Trump, pointing to a comment he made in a recent debate in which he awarded Trump an “A” rating.

Trump reentered the fray last month on Ciattarelli’s behalf, reiterating his endorsement in another social media post, and hosted an October telerally urging New Jerseyans to reject Sherrill. The White House announced a second telerally for Ciattarelli on the eve of the election. Even then, the Ciattarelli campaign did not publicly advise the president would be dialing into the Garden State.

“Now that you have Trump in the White House, New Jersey will continue to be ‘Blue Jersey,’ I would expect,” Bartlett said.

In Virginia, another high-profile race is soon to be decided and Trump has notably kept his distance.

Earle-Sears, the state’s Republican lieutenant governor, has struggled to accrue momentum in her race to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Polling averages consistently show her trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the blue-leaning state. She’s shaken up her campaign staff to improve her lagging fundraising and electoral prospects, and local Republicans have voiced concerns about the strength of her candidacy.

Trump never endorsed Earle-Sears by name, merely telling reporters aboard Air Force One on Oct. 20: “Well, I think the Republican candidate is very good and I think she should win because the Democrat candidate’s a disaster.”

One person close to the White House, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the president’s positioning, said, “If she had made it more of a race, it would’ve gotten more attention from him.”

The person posited that a Trump bump could not make up the “delta” of support between Earle-Sears and Spanberger. A late October poll conducted by the Washington Post and George Mason University showed Spanberger up with a 12 point lead over Winsome-Sears.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment about the president’s 2025 election strategy.

But Republicans haven’t lost all hope in Virginia.

Trump has made note of their strongest statewide down-ballot candidate, Attorney General Jason Miayres, who appears to have a shot at keeping his seat following a leaked text thread showing rival Democrat Jay Jones musing about shooting political adversaries. Recent polls show the two locked in a tight race.

Knocking Jones in a Truth Social post, Trump called Miyares “a GREAT Attorney General” who has his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”

He also held a separate, last-minute telerally for the Republican slate Monday night — only advised by the White House.

For now, Trump seems to be more focused on elections beyond 2025 — and even the 2026 midterms. He’s mentioned Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his potential successors in the next presidential election. He went as far as suggesting that the two would make an “unstoppable” ticket.

As for himself: “I’m not allowed to run. It’s too bad.”

Madison Fernandez contributed to this report.