DORAL, Florida — The economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran is imperiling the GOP’s legislative sales pitch ahead of the midterms, with energy price spikes threatening at least some of the pocketbook gains Americans are seeing from the sweeping tax cuts Republicans enacted last year.

Analysts with the Wall Street advisory and investment firm Evercore ISI estimated Monday that the impact on household costs attributable to the current crisis could erase the tax benefits from the “big, beautiful bill” for at least the bottom 30 percent of Americans — even if oil prices come off their $100-plus-per-barrel highs.

Some top Republicans acknowledged rising energy prices are cause for political concern.

“The price of gas is always kind of a benchmark,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Capitol Hill Monday. “I do think the fact that we’ve increased our supply here domestically will help ease it, but it’s something obviously we’ve got to pay attention to. And hopefully the operations in Iran … won’t be an extended situation.”

The impact of higher gas prices is hitting just as House Republicans gather for their annual policy retreat at Trump’s resort in Doral, Florida. The evidence could be seen just outside the gates, where regular gas was retailing at multiple stations for $3.59 per gallon — up about 70 cents from the Miami-area average on Jan. 1, according to GasBuddy.com.

The hope among Republicans gathered at the resort is that the crisis is short-lived, with several saying they believed Trump’s assurances that the supply bottlenecks caused by Iran’s effective blockade of the Persian Gulf would soon ease.

“I believe there’s a lot of emotion built into energy prices,” Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) said in an interview. “I would look for things to settle down very soon.”

But other Republicans granted anonymity to speak candidly expressed real alarm as crude oil prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel overnight before settling later in the day below $90 — still about 30 percent above recent lows.

“If you are a Republican and not concerned right now, you are stupid,” one House Republican said, adding, “Hopefully, we will square this away sooner than later.”

Another House Republican, asked if the wartime crisis threatened to overshadow the benefits of the GOP megabill, replied, “Hell yes.”

“The most sensitive thing amongst most driving Americans is the price of gasoline,” the person added, saying it threatens to send Americans “right up the wall.”

Trump is scheduled to address lawmakers in Doral shortly after markets close Monday, and they will be listening closely to his message on the hostilities in the Middle East and his plans to address high energy prices. He has announced plans to get oil shipments moving through the Gulf again, including by providing naval escorts for tankers and backstopping insurance for vessels.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement that oil prices will “drop dramatically once the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are achieved.”

“President Trump and his entire energy team have had a strong game plan to keep the energy markets stable well before Operation Epic Fury began, and they will continue to review all credible options,” she said.

But the president so far has shown little interest in pushing his party to foremost focus on legislation tackling affordability, as some of his political aides have advised. Instead, Trump is pressing Senate Republicans to pass a sweeping GOP elections overhaul bill — adding on demands for a near-complete ban on mail voting and unrelated policy provisions like banning transgender surgeries for minors.

Hours before taking the stage in front of House Republicans at his Florida resort, he reiterated his request.

Even before the oil price shock, Trump’s agenda had come with a hefty price tag for consumers. Analysts at the Tax Foundation have already determined that the president’s trade policies cost Americans $1,000 on average last year, matching the average size of refund checks that Trump officials say will ease cost-of-living concerns.

The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s tariffs, but those that remain are projected to cost households $600 on average this year, according to the nonpartisan think tank.

House Republican leaders are hoping to keep the annual policy retreat focused on their legislative priorities ahead of the midterms. Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan, the GOP Conference chair, said ahead of the retreat she hoped to firm up the party’s messaging around last year’s megabill.

But going into the Doral resort Monday, members were trained on all the reasons they hoped the politically perilous price spike would be short-lived.

House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) said in an interview that reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz “would be even better for energy prices, although we’re seeing obviously a peak right now with the war going on.”

Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) said the supply crunch was “not an existential threat to us because of all the things we’ve done to make ourselves self reliant in terms of energy resources,” while acknowledging the “fungible” nature of the global oil market. He was hopeful about more ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz.

Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) said in an interview a “short-term gas price hike is … not what’s important.”

“What’s important is the long term benefits of having a peaceful Iran that means that gas prices will drop dramatically for the long term,” he said. “I’m not that concerned about it.”

Sam Sutton contributed to this report.

Rep. Andy Ogles said on Monday that Muslims have no place in America, an Islamophobic attack from a sitting member of Congress.

“Muslims don’t belong in American society. Pluralism is a lie,” the Tennessee Republican posted Monday morning on X.

It is not the first bigoted social media post Ogles has made.

He has also said that “America and Islam are incompatible,” and has introduced legislation to halt immigration from Muslim-majority nations.

A spokesperson for Ogles referred Blue Light News to an interview the member of Congress did with Fox News following a shooting in Austin, Texas, in which he said that “mass Islamic immigration, legal or illegal, has transformed America and brought destructive consequences.”

Ogles’ post comes as Republicans gather in Florida for their annual retreat and could serve as a distraction as the party seeks to hash out its agenda ahead of the midterms.

Spokespeople for the offices of the top three House Republicans — Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Majority Whip Tom Emmer — did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Ogles’ legislation, the Halt Immigration from Countries with Inadequate Verification Capabilities Act, would amend the Immigration and Nationality Act by refusing admission to immigrants from some majority-Muslim countries like Iran, Libya and Syria. North Korea, Venezuela and Yemen are also named in the bill, which does make exceptions for U.S. citizens.

The bill, which is unlikely to become law, has already garnered the support of Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.), who said “we must protect America from jihadists.”

Fine has also come under fire for Islamophobic remarks recently.

Last month, the Florida Republican faced criticism for implying that dogs were preferable to Muslims. At least one Democrat called for Fine to be censured.

A spokesperson for Fine did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

House Republicans are descending on President Donald Trump’s Doral resort Monday for their annual policy retreat, with hopes of sketching out their legislative priorities before the midterms.

Trump may have just upended that plan.

The president on Sunday said he wouldn’t sign any bills until Republicans pass the sweeping elections overhaul known as the SAVE America Act. Paired with a new Middle East War, surging oil prices and persistent internal turmoil threatening the House GOP’s razor-thin majority, the kickoff of the party’s South Florida gathering is looking anything but sunny.

Here’s a preview of what’s coming at the retreat:

— TRUMP’S SAVE AMERICA SCRAMBLE: The president is set to speak to Republicans Monday at 5 p.m. We’ll be watching the extent to which he leans into his SAVE America Act ultimatum and another demand that Republicans add restrictions on transgender surgeries and mail voting. Trump’s request to expand the bill may trigger more GOP infighting and further weaken a push to skirt the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster to pass it.

— RECONCILING RECONCILIATION: Many House Republicans hope to leave the retreat with clarity on another major question: whether they’ll try to pass a second party-line budget reconciliation bill. Speaker Mike Johnson promised some members he would try, but the effort would require near-total GOP unity and could well be DOA in the Senate. Some Republicans think the need for more war funding could jumpstart a fresh reconciliation push given opposition by Senate Democrats.

— COMMITTEE CHAIRS SPEAK: Committee chairs are set to discuss their legislative plans for the year Tuesday afternoon.

House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith is expected to talk through a list of bipartisan health care and tax priorities. House Financial Services Chair French Hill said he’s planning to discuss his panel’s reconciliation priorities, as well as unfinished housing and crypto bills he’s working out with the Senate.

House Homeland Security Chair Andrew Garbarino said he was planning to share details about how the DHS funding lapse is degrading the department’s preparedness and discuss reauthorization bills under his panel’s jurisdiction.

Republicans expect House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole and Rep. Ken Calvert, who chairs the funding panel that oversees the Pentagon, to discuss an anticipated White House request for more military funding in light of the Middle East war.

— ROUNDING OUT THE WEEK: Republicans on Tuesday are set to hear from White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, 2024 Trump campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Conservative commentator Scott Jennings will brief them on GOP messaging, while podcast host Ben Shapiro will address the “speed of new media” in a Wednesday morning session.

What else we’re watching: 

— Housing bill’s House hurdles: The Senate is set to pass bipartisan housing legislation as soon as this week, but House conservatives are gearing up to fight it. At issue is a part of the bill that would restrict the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency through 2030. The House has passed a permanent CBDC ban, and on Friday 32 House Republicans told leaders in a letter that the housing bill would be “dead on arrival” without it. The White House has said it wants to pass the Senate bill as-is.

— AI-boosted campaign ad: Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who is campaigning to reclaim the South Side of Chicago seat he once held, is launching a new TV and digital ad Monday featuring an endorsement from former Rep. Bobby Rush delivered partly via artificial intelligence. The spot initially shows Rush speaking in his actual voice, weakened from a battle with throat cancer. He then continues speaking in a restored version of the voice he had decades ago.

— Rudd nomination: The Senate will vote to advance the nomination of Lt. Gen. Joshua Rudd to be a general Monday. If confirmed, he’s set to lead the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command.

Katherine Hapgood, Shia Kapos and Calen Razor contributed to this report.