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The Dictatorship

The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. Now comes the hard work of issuing refunds

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The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. Now comes the hard work of issuing refunds

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court on Friday struck down President Donald Trump’s biggest and boldest tariffs. But the justices left a $133 billion question unanswered: What’s going to happen to the money the government has already collected in import taxes now declared unlawful?

Companies have been lining up for refunds. But the way forward could prove chaotic.

When the smoke clears, trade lawyers say, importers are likely to get money back — eventually. “It’s going to be a bumpy ride for awhile,” said trade lawyer Joyce Adetutu, a partner at the Vinson & Elkins law firm.

The refund process is likely to be hashed out by a mix of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency, the specialized Court of International Trade in New York and other lower courts, according to a note to clients by lawyers at the legal firm Clark Hill.

“The amount of money is substantial,” Adetutu said. “The courts are going to have a hard time. Importers are going to have a hard time.’’

Still, she added, “it’s going to be really difficult not to have some sort of refund option’’ given how decisively the Supreme Court repudiated Trump’s tariffs.

In its 6-3 opinion on Friday, the court ruled Trump’s attempt to use an emergency powers law to enact the levies was not valid. Two of the three justices appointed by Trump joined the majority in striking down the first major piece of his second-term agenda to come before them.

At issue are double-digit tariffs Trump imposed on almost every country in the world last year by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Supreme Court ruled that the law did not give the president authority to tax imports, a power that belongs to Congress.

The U.S. customs agency has already collected $133 billion in IEEPA tariffs as of mid-December. But consumers hoping for a refund are unlikely to be compensated for the higher prices they paid when companies passed along the cost of the tariffs; that’s more likely to go to the companies themselves.

In a dissenting opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh dinged his colleagues for dodging the refund issue: “The Court says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers.’’

Borrowing a word that Justice Amy Coney Barrett — who sided with the majority — used during the court’s November hearing on the case, Kavanaugh warned that “the refund process is likely to be a ‘mess.’”

“I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years,” Trump told reporters at a press conference Friday, in which he decried the court’s decision and said he was “absolutely ashamed” of some justices who ruled against his tariffs. “We’ll end up being in court for the next five years.’’

The end of the IEEPA tariffs could help the economy by easing inflationary pressures. The tariff refunds — like other tax refunds — could stimulate spending and growth. But the impacts are likely to be modest.

Most countries still face steep tariffs from the U.S. on specific sectors, and Trump intends to replace the IEEPA levies using other options. The refunds that do get issued will take time to roll out — 12 to 18 months, estimates TD Securities.

The U.S. customs agency does have a process for refunding duties when importers can show there’s been some kind of error. The agency might try to build on the existing system to refund Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, said trade lawyer Dave Townsend, a partner with the law firm Dorsey & Whitney.

And there has been a precedent for courts making arrangements to give companies their money back in trade cases. In the 1990s, the courts struck down as unconstitutional a harbor maintenance fee on exports and set up a system for exporters to apply for refunds.

But the courts and U.S. customs have never had to deal with anything like this — thousands of importers and tens of billions of dollars at once.

“Just because the process is difficult to administer doesn’t mean the government has the right to hold on to fees that were collected unlawfully,″ said trade lawyer Alexis Early, partner at the law firm Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner.

Ryan Majerus, a partner at King & Spalding and a former U.S. trade official, said it’s hard to know how the government will deal with the massive demand for refunds. It might try to streamline the process, perhaps setting up a special website where importers can claim their refunds.

But Adetutu warns that “the government is well-positioned to make this as difficult as possible for importers. I can see a world where they push as much responsibility as possible onto the importer’’ — maybe forcing them to go to court to seek the refunds.

Many companies, including Costco, Revlon and canned seafood and chicken producer Bumble Bee Foods, filed lawsuits claiming refunds even before the Supreme Court ruled, essentially seeking to be at the head of line if the tariffs were struck down.

There are likely to be more legal battles ahead. Manufacturers might, for example, sue for a share of any refunds given to suppliers that jacked up the price of raw materials to cover the tariffs.

“We may see years of ongoing litigation in multiple jurisdictions,’’ Early said.

Consumers, though, are unlikely to enjoy a refund windfall. The higher prices they’ve had to pay would likely be hard to attribute to a specific tariff. Should they pursue refunds anyway? Early wouldn’t advise wasting money on legal fees, but said: “In America, we have the ability to file a lawsuit for anything we want.’’

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat and Trump antagonist, is demanding a refund on behalf of his state’s 5.11 million households. In a letter addressed to Trump and released by Pritzker’s gubernatorial campaign, the governor said the tariffs had cost each Illinois household $1,700 — or $8.7 billion. Pritzker said failure to pay will elicit “further action.’’

Nevada Treasurer Zach Conine submitted a payment request to the federal government for $2.1 billion to recoup the costs of the tariffs, his office announced Friday.

“As Nevada’s chief investment officer, I have a responsibility to try to recoup every single dollar that the Trump Administration takes from Nevada families,” Conine said in a statement.

___

AP Writers Lindsay Whitehurst and Christopher Rugaber in Washington, Jessica Hill in Las Vegas and John O’Connor in Springfield, Illinois, contributed to this story.

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The Dictatorship

Canadian Prime Minister Carney secures a majority government with special election wins

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Canadian Prime Minister Carney secures a majority government with special election wins

TORONTO (AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a majority government with special election wins Monday night, allowing his Liberals to pass legislation without the support of opposition parties.

Voters cast ballots for three vacant seats of the 343 districts represented in Parliament. Liberal candidate Danielle Martin won the election for the Toronto district of University Rosedale and Liberal Doly Begum won the Toronto district of Scarborough Southwest. The result for a Quebec district was expected later.

The Liberal party could stay in power until 2029 after Monday’s results.

Carney won Canada’s electionlast year fueled by public anger over U.S. President Donald Trump’s annexation threats, and he has vowed to reduce Canada’s reliance on the U.S.

Since then, five defectionsfrom opposition parties, including four from the main opposition Conservative party, put Carney’s Liberals on the cusp of the majority with 171 members of Parliament in the House of Commons.

One of those defectors referenced Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forumin Davos, Switzerland, as helping his decision. In the speech, Carney condemned economic coercion by great powers against smaller countries and received widespread praise for his remarks.

Carney, former head of the Bank of England as well as Canada’s central bank, has moved the Liberals to the center-right since replacing Justin Trudeauas prime minister in 2025.

“Congratulations to Danielle Martin, new Member of Parliament for University-Rosedale,” Carney posted on social media. “Danielle has spent her career building better public health care for Torontonians and all Canadians. Now she’s bringing her experience and determination to the House of Commons, and our country will be stronger for it.”

Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said the Liberals also had a shot at winning in the seat in Quebec.

Béland said the deterioration of Canada-U.S. relations under the second Trump presidency has convinced many Canadians, including people who do not identify as Liberal, to rally behind the prime minister.

“Carney has thus far proved that he is an astute politician, despite the fact that he only formally entered the political arena in January of last year,” Béland said.

“The Davos speech has certainly helped boost Carney’s support at home, and he is now significantly more popular than when he became prime minister nearly 13 months ago.”

Carney’s majority and the recent defections are another blow to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who lost the previous national election last year and even his own seat in Parliament. He has since rejoined Parliament.

Poilievre won a party leadership reviewearlier this year, but continues to have problems controlling his lawmakers.

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The Dictatorship

Earth Day: Why sustainability and transparency matter more than ever

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ByKnow Your Value staff

Knowing your value starts with taking ownership of your health.

That’s why Know Your Value and its founder Mika Brzezinski  is partnering with the Environmental Working Group for an Earth Day event on April 22nd in Los Angeles.

We’re bringing together leading voices in environmental and women’s health for a conversation about knowing – and owning – our value…as women, movement creators and champions of environmental health.

Brzezinski recently spoke to Mark Abrials, chief marketing and sustainability officer – and co-founder at “Avocado green mattress” – one of our event sponsors – about the role companies play in advancing environmental and social responsibility.

“For Avocado … Earth Day is every day. I mean, Earth Day is built into our DNA ,” said Abrials. “I think it’s a time for consumers to just maybe reflect upon the products that they do bring into their house and maybe use it as an opportunity to dig deeper into how they’re made, how materials are sourced, because that has a direct impact on your own personal health, but also the health of the planet.”

You can watch the entire interview below:

Know Your Value staff

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The Dictatorship

Viktor Orbán’s loss in Hungary shows how a strongman can be defeated

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Strongman rule often appears unbeatable at the ballot box, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Sunday shows even entrenched systems can be challenged with the right strategy.

Peter Hungariandisrupted Orbán’s 16-year tenure with the support of a broad, unlikely coalition united by three core messages: Orbán must go, corruption must end and Hungary must align with the West rather than Russia. He also emphasized national sovereignty and strict border control, defying easy ideological categorization.

Péter Magyar disrupted Orbán’s 16-year tenure with the support of a broad, unlikely coalition united by three core messages: Orbán must go, corruption must end and Hungary must align with the West rather than Russia.

Magyar, the ex-husband of Orbán’s former justice minister, drew on personal knowledge of the government’s inner workings and crafted a bold, patriotic campaign. His social media strategy centered on a relatable persona. This winning combination goes a long way toward reshaping what effective opposition can look like.

For years, the “Orbán playbook” served as a manual for capturing power through elections — and then systematically dismantling checks and balances, hollowing out independent institutions, and consolidating control over the media and business sphere. Now, Hungary’s politics may be offering a different kind of playbook: one for how to bring down a strongman. Three points are particularly notable.

Change can come from within

It is tempting to view everyone inside an illiberal system as complicit. But such systems are often most vulnerable to those who understand them intimately. After 16 years of failed opposition efforts, Magyar became an effective challenger thanks in part to his insider knowledge — rather than outsider credentials.

Consider: His rise began just two years ago with a Facebook post and a viral interview exposing corruption in the Orbán regime. A meteoric ascent followed. Magyar drew on his insider understanding of how Orbán’s government exerts control over business, education, the judiciary and the media. He named methods and perpetrators with a precision, and a sense of humor, that few outsiders could match, while sharply criticizing the opposition for its weakness and lack of political imagination. This positioning — outside the regime yet deeply familiar with it, and distinct from an ineffective opposition — created a powerful advantage, one that appealed to an electorate in search of change.

Patriotism must be contested, not conceded

This point resonated with Hungarians and could be equally resonant among many Americans. Orbán consolidated power not only through his control of institutions but also by monopolizing national identity. His long-standing strategy has been to frame patriotism as the exclusive domain of his political camp — and the left, to its detriment, largely ceded the point.

Along came  Magyar, whose surname literally means “Hungarian,” with several methods for reversing this dynamic. From the prominent use of the national flag at campaign events to his cross-country tour in a flatbed truck decorated in the tricolor, his campaign reclaimed patriotism, visually and rhetorically, as a shared national identity rather than a partisan weapon. He gave speeches urging citizens to “take back” their country “step by step, brick by brick,” making clear with both symbols and words that patriotism is not the property of any single party.

Crucially, Magyar has avoided issues that could fracture his diverse coalition. He has largely steered clear of culture-war flashpoints, including the 2025 Pride parade in Budapest, which was banned by Orbán but more widely attended than ever. By staying laser-focused on regime change, anti-corruption and Western orientation, especially toward the European Union and NATO, he has maintained a fragile but expansive alliance across urban and rural divides and across ideological lines.

Many Hungarian voters may not support Magyar  enthusiastically — but enough were eager for change that they were willing to support his campaign.

Charm matters

In a media environment where many of us pay more attention to personality than to institutions, values and factsMagyar’s energetic and athletic persona and willingness to show vulnerability at times contrasted with Orbán’s carefully curated and inherently insulated image. Social media does not simply compare ideas; it stages a continuous visual contest of bodies, lifestyles and vitality. Even Orbán’s formidable propaganda apparatus has struggled against a challenger who appeared unscripted and dynamic, which resonated as authentic.

Magyar’s ability to withstand constant propaganda attacks with a small but agile communications team, combining start-up-style social media tactics with large-scale, well-produced public events, further reinforced perceptions of him as a resilient political challenger.

Orbán’s long-standing strategy has been to frame patriotism as the exclusive domain of his political camp — and the left, to its detriment, largely ceded the point.

Even moments that would be vulnerabilities in traditional politics, such as outbursts of anger or bouts of passionate partying, ultimately contributed to his appeal as a flawed but driven figure — a Hungarian determined to bring change to his beloved country. Magyar emerged as a folk hero, set against an entrenched incumbent who appeared overweight, both politically and physically. The contest became, in part, one of masculinity; and here, too, the 45-year-old, more athletic Magyar claimed the advantage — even though 62-year-old Orbán has long cultivated an image as a sports enthusiast, especially in soccer.

As opposition movements across democracies struggle against entrenched populist leaders, Hungary’s election outcome offers cautions and insights. Success may depend less on ideological purity than on strategic adaptability. An electorate’s openness to unconventional figures, especially those who make an effective argument to reclaim patriotism, can allow for the construction of cross-ideological coalitions. Leaders must also project authenticity, particularly on social media. A broad, inclusive coalition united around change may be enough to upend even entrenched incumbents, leaving the harder questions of how to govern for the days that follow.

Julia Sonnevend is a sociology professor and co-director of the Center for the American Experience at The New School in New York City. She is the author of “Charm: How Magnetic Personalities Shape Global Politics.” She grew up in Budapest, Hungary.

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