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The SOTU moment that Republicans hope saves the midterms

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Republicans are betting President Donald Trump just handed them the lifeline they need to win on immigration again.

It came as just one quick moment during the president’s record-breaking State of the Union address Tuesday night, when he asked lawmakers to rise if they agreed with a “fundamental principle.”

“If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support: The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens,” Trump said, prompting Republicans to take to their feet while Democrats remained roundly seated and expressionless.

That visual — a literal juxtaposition of the two sides of the aisle — is one Republicans are eager to spread across the airwaves and highlight on the campaign trail after weathering months of backlash to Trump’s unpopular mass deportation campaigns. The National Republican Congressional Committee held a meeting Wednesday morning on how best to deploy that specific moment in attack ads against vulnerable Democratic House members, according to one person familiar with the conversation, granted anonymity to discuss private planning.

At least one group is already making its move: The conservative nonprofit American Sovereignty will begin airing a 30 second ad Thursday that plays the moment in full, overlaid with text claiming Democrats are “for illegal alien criminals.” The ad, first shared with Blue Light News, is part of the group’s ongoing seven-figure television blitz in critical battleground states like North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia.

“For most of the history of our country, Democrats and Republicans have disagreed in good faith on how to best protect the citizens of this country,” said David Shafer, a GOP strategist who previously served as chair of the Georgia Republican Party. “The Democrats made clear that protecting American citizens is no longer their primary objective.”

Several GOP candidates in high-profile races and lawmakers quickly amplified the clip on social media and released statements slamming Democrats for staying in their seats.

This moment is potentially critical for Republicans, who have found themselves underwater on both the economy and immigration — two issues they used to own. Recent polling from Blue Light News and Public First shows nearly half of all Americans found Trump’s immigration tactics to be too aggressive and 46 percent of them think the Trump administration is responsible for high costs.

Trump honed the immigration portion of his address on border security and removing violent criminals.

Although Trump’s Tuesday speech left some Republicans feeling skeptical that he did enough to sell a forward-looking economic agenda that would assuage Americans’ concerns, others are thrilled with his effort to reframe the GOP’s immigration platform.

Rather than focusing on his controversial mass deportation efforts, Trump honed the immigration portion of his address on two aspects that enjoy broader support: border security and removing violent criminals. That, coupled with the made-for-TV moment contrasting Republicans and Democrats, has helped give GOP campaign strategists more room to maneuver ahead of the midterms.

“That was incredibly helpful, it paints a different picture,” said Preya Samsundar, a Republican communications strategist involved in several races, including New Mexico’s gubernatorial election and the House special in Georgia’s 14th district. “It sets the tone for why the majority of Americans — regardless of the Republican, Democrat or Independent — were supportive of the President’s immigration policies in the first place.”

Rep. Buddy Carter of Georgia, who is running in the competitive GOP primary to unseat incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff, was among the first candidates to take aim over immigration after the State of the Union.

“Tonight, Democrats — including Jon Ossoff — refused to stand for the American people,” he said in a statement Tuesday following Trump’s speech. “We saw a clear-cut division tonight between the Republicans, under the leadership of President Trump, who are standing up for our country, and the Democrats who stay seated and refused to acknowledge the truth: The State of our Union is strong.”

Still, Democratic operatives, like pollster Brian Stryker, argue that immigration is no longer the “lead weight” that it was for their party in 2024. Democrats’ recent special election wins, including in Texas where Hispanic voters ran en masse back to Democrats, nod to their momentum on the issue.

“A Democrat with a moderate immigration policy can be heard right now, while two years ago, they assumed every Democrat was for open borders,” he said.

If Republicans were to gain the front foot on immigration again, that could help them redirect some of the focus from their perceived weak spots on the economy — at least temporarily. They’re betting that the images of Democrats staying in their seats on immigration will have staying power.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), center left, reacts as other congressional Democrats look on during Trump's address.

“I saw Stephen Miller’s tweet afterwards saying it was the biggest moment in the history of the Congress. Doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about,” said Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) of the White House deputy chief of staff’s late-night posts on social media. “The whole thing is disgraceful to me. It was a stunt, and it was pathetic.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer rushed to defend Democrats after Trump’s speech, saying they “agree” on protecting Americans and the president is the one risking their safety with his immigration operations — a nod to the killings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti.

But the damage may have been done.

“It’s theatrics, but at the end of the day it’s kind of a shake your head move for Democrats not to stand up,” Ben Voelkel, a Wisconsin-based Republican strategist, said.

Brakkton Booker, Elena Schneider and Calen Razor contributed to this report.

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2028 Democrats say anyone can win. Voters aren’t so sure.

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NEW YORK — A fear of losing again is already shaping how Democrats think about 2028.

Chants of “run again!” reverberated through the packed room as Kamala Harris spoke Friday at the National Action Network convention, a gathering of Black voters, lawmakers and power brokers that saw drop-ins from a steady stream of potential presidential candidates. But several Black attendees openly questioned whether anyone other than a straight, white man can win the White House.

“The Democratic Party, they’re going to have to consider … who can win? Who can win, Black, white, who can win?” the Rev. Kim Williams, 63, a New Yorker and registered independent said in an interview.

“I don’t think [the country is] ready for another different type of person,” said Annette Wilcox, a 69-year old New Yorker.

It’s an open question the party is grappling with in the wake of Harris’ decisive 2024 loss to President Donald Trump. Conversations with a dozen people on the sidelines of the Rev. Al Sharpton’s gathering found some lingering concerns that America remains too bigoted — and that as a result, the desire to diversify the highest reaches of government is in tension with the desire to win.

In interviews, several of the prospective 2028 Democrats themselves argued that anyone can win. They poured into the midtown Manhattan ballroom over the week to build their relationships with Black voters for what became a barely-hidden shadow primary.

Sen. Ruben Gallego, a first-term Democrat who won statewide in Arizona despite Harris losing the state, told Blue Light News on the sidelines of the convention that the party shouldn’t let fear narrow who ultimately runs.

“If you got stuck into this idea of what an ideal character is … you could potentially miss some really great talent,” said Gallego, who leaned intohis identity as a Latino veteran in his 2024 campaign.

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, another possible 2028 candidate, said that he doesn’t “know many people back in 2022 who thought that an African American who had never held political office in his life was gonna be the next governor of Maryland.”

“People want to know, does your message meet a moment,” he added.

On stage with Sharpton on Friday, Harris seemed to agree. She made her most explicit overture at running again for the presidency, telling the audience she was “thinking about it” — to loud cheers and applause. Her appearance at the convention energized an otherwise largely staid event.

But even Harris, the first Black and South Asian woman to become vice president, has tacitly acknowledged the limitations of the country.

In her latest book, she divulged that former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — another 2028 contender who also made a pit-stop at NAN — was her top vice presidential pick in 2024. But she didn’t select him because she didn’t believe the country was ready for both a woman of color and a gay man in the White House.

A spokesperson for Harris declined to comment.

Some women, from former first lady Michelle Obama to various convention attendees disappointed by Harris’ 2024 loss, have said the U.S. isn’t ready for a female president.

“I believe the current climate of this country is not ready for a Black woman as president,” Aaliyah Payton, 30, a middle school teacher in the Bronx, said while waiting to see Harris speak on the third day of the convention in a line that spanned far outside the convention room.

“If Kamala Harris is running as a Democrat, and there is another white man also running as a Democrat, she would have a tough time winning,” said 60-year-old Donna Carr, who lives in New Jersey. “It’s a man’s world.”

“I’m not going to lie, it may be too soon,” said 27-year-old New Yorker Justina Peña when asked if Harris should run again.

The same handwringing roiled the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, and voters ultimately selected Joe Biden — a more moderate straight white man — to block Trump from winning a second consecutive term.

The debate within the Democratic Party over what kind of candidate is electable played out again most recently in Texas, where the Democratic Senate primary was defined by tensions over race and concerns over which candidate could unify enough Democrats, independents and disillusioned Republicans to flip the red state. Voters chose seminarian James Talarico, a white man, over political firebrand Jasmine Crockett, a Black woman, in the end.

“We saw it with the race with Crockett, and I saw a woman say she wanted to vote for Crockett, but she knew she could not win against [a] white male Republican,” said Williams, the 63-year-old reverend.

Now, those conversations are already emerging for 2028 before a single Democrat has officially announced a bid for the White House. The question over 2028 ambitions hovered over Moore, Gallego, Harris, Buttigieg, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and California Rep. Ro Khanna this week — and while nobody said they officially are, nobody ruled it out. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly are slated to speak on Saturday.

Buttigieg has dismissed concerns over his viability, including in a direct response to Harris’ revelation of why she didn’t choose him as a running mate in 2024.

“My experience in politics has been that the way that you earn trust with voters is based mostly on what they think you’re going to do for their lives, not on categories,” Buttigieg told POLITICO in a September interview.“Politics is about the results we can get for people and not about these other things.”

Some of the Black voters at the conference similarly expressed frustration with the idea that candidates’ identities should be a consideration in the looming 2028 primary.

“My concern — biggest concern — is when we get into a crisis like this in this country, people want to go to the ‘center,’ which usually is right of center in my view. A lot of people get kind of left out,” said Wilcox, the 69-year-old New York voter.

“In my experience, or history I’ve had with the Democratic Party, I feel like when that happens, Black people get tossed to the side.”

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Jeffries, Pelosi and other Democrats call on Eric Swalwell to end governor campaign

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Jeffries, Pelosi and other Democrats call on Eric Swalwell to end governor campaign

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Trump endorses ‘focused’ immigration enforcement funding bill

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