Politics
The polls are looking good for Kamala Harris. Here’s why she’s still an underdog.
As we head into the final stretch of the presidential election, it remains a toss-up, but all things considered, you’d rather be Vice President Kamala Harris than Donald Trump.
With Americans who typically tune out politics starting to take a serious look at the race after Labor Day, Harris has moved into a narrow lead in national polls and is showing momentum in key swing statesincluding some that seemed out of reach earlier this year.
Harris is extending her lead among women and widening the gender gap, even as Trump flails.
Still, Trump has a path to victory thanks to the Electoral College, which gives him more leeway thanks to the uneven distribution of Republicans and Democrats.
The latest ABC/Ipsos poll gives Harris a lead among likely voters — 52% to 46%, while a new USA Today/Suffolk poll out Tuesday has her leading Trump, 47.6% to 43.3%. Both leads are outside the margin of error.
A deeper dive into the numbers provides even better news for the Harris campaign. Multiple polls have shown a surge in Democratic enthusiasm, and the latest Suffolk poll shows that the excitement also extends to down-ballot races. She has also cut deeply into Trump’s advantage on key issues, including the economy, immigration and national security. She’s also very strong on her own turf. On health care and race relations, Harris leads Trump by 14 points and 19 points, respectively.
Perhaps most dramatically, Harris is extending her lead among women and widening the gender gap, even as Trump flails, fidgets and flip-flops on abortion and IVF treatment. The ABC/Ipsos poll found that Harris now leads by 13 points among women, 54% to 41%, up from a 6-point preconvention lead.
Harris’ running mate, Tim Walzalso continues to dramatically outpoll Trump’s vice presidential pick, JD Vance. In the ABC poll, Walz has a 42% to 31% favorability rating, while Vance is underwater by a margin of 32% to 44%.
None of this means that the race is anywhere close to being over.
Harris has put several Sun Belt states — GeorgiaArizona, Nevada and North Carolina — back into play. And recent polls show a close race (with a narrow edge to Harris) in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
But Democrats are being cautioned about the campaign that is still to come. In a memo Sunday, Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote: “[M]ake no mistake: we head into the final stretch of this race as the clear underdogs. Donald Trump has a motivated base of support, with more support and higher favorability than he has had at any point since 2020.”
Harris is ahead but she is still an underdog. She has 62 days to solidify that lead.
BLN columnist Charlie Sykes is founder of The Bulwark. His most recent book, “How the Right Lost Its Mind,” was published in October 2017.
Politics
Democrats zero in on Musk as a way to attack Trump
Democrats are starting to wake up and sketch out a plan to help them win back the working class: Turn the world’s richest person into their boogeyman.
They’ve set their sights on holding Elon Musk to account. Armed with new polling showing Musk’s popularity in the toilet, key Democratic leaders are going after the top Trump adviser who is dismantling the federal government. They are attempting to subpoena him and introducing legislation to block him from receiving federal contracts while he holds a “special” role leading Trump’s cost-cutting crusade.
In a sign of how toxic Democrats believe Musk is, battleground Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) called Musk an “unelected, weirdo billionaire” and said he has “been getting a lot of calls over the past few days” about him. Golden is a moderate who represents Trump country.
Even Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who represents Silicon Valley and has had a relationship with Musk for years, is distancing himself from him. Khanna posted on X on Wednesday that Musk’s “attacks on our institutions are unconstitutional.” Khanna previously likened Musk to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “dollar-a-year men,” the corporate leaders who helped the government mobilize for WWII, and said he texts with him.
Democrats are also protesting him in Washington, making the calculation that the idea of an unelected billionaire wreaking chaos on the bureaucracy will be unpopular with voters. And they have some data fueling their efforts.
New internal polling, conducted on behalf of House Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership, found Musk is viewed negatively among 1,000 registered voters in battleground districts. Just 43 percent approve of him and 51 percent view him unfavorably. The poll, conducted by the Democratic firm Impact Research and completed between Jan. 19 to 25, also found that Musk evoked strong negative feelings. Of the 51 percent who disapproved of him, 43 percent did so strongly.
The survey isn’t a one-off, either. An Economist/YouGov poll published on Wednesday also found Musk’s approval rating underwater, 43 percent favorable to 49 percent unfavorable.
In the Democrats’ internal polling, pollsters asked respondents for their thoughts on “the creation of a government of the rich for the rich by appointing up to nine different billionaires to the administration,” and found 70 percent opposed with only 19 percent in support — a stat that suggests Democrats have landed on a message that could gain traction with swing voters.
That data and focus groups held by House Majority Forward helped bring attacks on the administration into focus: Democrats “shouldn’t chide Musk, Trump, and others for being rich,” the group wrote, but point out Musk’s conflicts of interests as head of DOGE and note that he could undermine key safety net programs to enrich himself at the expense of American taxpayers.
“Participants laud Musk’s business acumen and aren’t opposed to the ideals of DOGE,” HMF found. But “Musk’s relationship with Trump – who they view as inherently pro-big business” makes them wary that billionaire’s cuts “could include programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.”
Politics
House Democrats try, and fail, to subpoena Musk
Democrats on the House Oversight Committee moved to subpoena tech billionaire and Trump ally Elon Musk at a hearing Wednesday — and one Democrat was conspicuously missing from the vote, Rep. Ro Khanna of California, who represents Silicon Valley and has a longtime relationship with the billionaire…
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