The Dictatorship
The one piece of good news Trump won’t claim credit for
Now that Donald Trump is about to become president again, there’s plenty of good news for which he can take undeserved credit. Unemployment is low, inflation is downgas is cheap and getting cheaperthe stock market is boomingand before long Trump will say it was all his doing. But there’s one positive development that he is unlikely to claim responsibility for or even admit is happening: Crime, especially homicide, is down dramatically from the spike that occurred during the worst of the pandemic in 2020.
The reasons Trump won’t tout declining crime have to do with the way he uses fear and sets Americans from different kinds of places against one another. But while it may be understandable for his critics to throw up their hands in frustration, it would be a shame if they let Trump get away with fooling the public on this score. Trump can be a successful propagandist, mostly because of his audacity and persistence — but not always, and not nearly to the extent he’d like us to believe.
Back here in reality, much of the recent news about crime has been highly encouraging.
Trump’s message about public safety has been consistent long before his time as a candidate and as president: Crime is out of control, it’s getting worse by the day, and it’s especially bad in cities, which are nightmares of mayhem and terror. In his first inaugural address eight years ago, Trump said we were suffering through “American carnage” that he would bring to an end. Yet while there was seemingly nothing he wouldn’t boast about, as president he never claimed he had created a world of perfect safety.
And when a few of the thousands of protests that took place after the murder of George Floyd turned violent, he claimed that America’s cities had turned into thunderdomes of bloodshed — then kept saying the same thing for the next four years even as the Covid crime spike dissipated.
Back here in reality, much of the recent news about crime has been highly encouraging. Boston has recorded only 24 homicides in all of 2024, the fewest since 1957. In San Francisco, which conservatives often describe as emblematic of urban decay, there have been only 34 homicides, the fewest since 1960. Detroit had fewer homicides in 2023 than in any year other since 1966, and this year’s total will be even lower. More broadly, the FBI’s most recent quarterly crime reportfound that violent crime decreased by 10% from the year before, with violent crime in Washington, D.C., hitting a 30-year low.
Of course, crime rates haven’t fallen uniformly in all places or in all categories. And somehow, all the guns in the United States haven’t made Americans safer than residents in most peer countries. But in the aggregateit seems that the pandemic-era crime spike has reversed.
That’s good news for all of us — except for Trump, who would prefer Americans live in a state of constant anxiety and fear. He has gotten great mileage out of convincing his most ardent supporters (especially those in rural areas and small towns) that cities are terrifyingly violent, driven to chaos by Democratic mismanagement.
So perhaps it’s time Democrats started making more noise about the places that have succeeded in reducing crime — not just to cheer, but to get people talking about which policies worked and how we might prevent future increases in crime rates.
Unfortunately, this isn’t a topic Democrats generally like talking about. They know that most Americans usually say crime is rising even when it’s falling (or at least that’s what they tell pollsters). And Democrats are always afraid of being called “soft on crime,” even when their policies succeed.
Unfortunately, this isn’t a topic Democrats generally like talking about.
The first step to getting over their own fear is to understand that Trump doesn’t have magical powers of persuasion. His message will never change; he’ll always say that in American cities, “you can’t walk across the street to get a loaf of bread. You get shot. You get mugged. You get raped.” But he makes ludicrous claims on many issues, and most people don’t believe them reflexively. Even many of his own supporters think he exaggerates for effect.
Dominance of the media landscape doesn’t equal persuasive powers. Ronald Reagan’s mastery of the medium of television was so striking that media scholars wrote books about how he transformed presidential communication. Yet his deft use of the dominant medium of the day didn’t translate into endless political success.
Reagan was re-elected handily, but many of his policy initiatives failed, and he was, in fact, not all that popular compared with other presidents before and after. His average approval rating was higher than Gerald Ford’s, Richard Nixon’s or Harry Truman’s but lower than Lyndon B. Johnson’s, John F. Kennedy’s, Dwight D. Eisenhower’s, George H.W. Bush’s and Bill Clinton’s.
Propaganda has its limits, even in the hands of a skilled performer like Reagan. Yet many people, including many reporters, mistakenly assumed that since Reagan was so at ease on screen and his team so proficient at creating photo-ops, the public must have been convinced of what he was saying.
There’s a temptation to make the same assumption about Trump today: He dominates the contemporary media environment, so of course his propaganda must be successful. But that will be the case only if it goes unanswered. And since Trump will keep trying to make us all afraid that we’ll be murdered whenever we leave the house, Americans deserve a debate on crime that might lead to more effective policies. Even if we run the risk that one day Trump will take the credit.
The Dictatorship
STRAIT UNCHOKED?
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United States will launch an effort on Monday to “guide” stranded ships from the Iran-gripped Strait of HormuzPresident Donald Trump said, as two ships around the strait reported attacks.
Trump gave few details about what could be a sweeping attempt to help hundreds of vessels and some 20,000 seafarers. Iran quickly denounced the move as a ceasefire violation.
Trump said in a social media post on Sunday that “neutral and innocent” countries have been affected by the Iran wasand “we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.”
“Project Freedom” would begin on Monday morning in the Middle East, Trump said, adding that his representatives are having discussions with Iran that could lead to something “very positive for all.”
U.S. Central Command said the initiative would involve guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and 15,000 service members. The Pentagon did not immediately answer questions about how they would be deployed.
Iran’s effective closure of the strait, imposed after the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, has shaken global markets.
Ships and seafarers, many on oil and gas tankers and cargo ships, have been stuck in the Persian Gulf since the war began. Crew members have described to The Associated Press seeing intercepted drones and missiles explode over the waters as their vessels run low on drinking water, food and other supplies. Many sailors come from India and other countries in South and Southeast Asia.
“They are victims of circumstance,” Trump wrote, and described the effort as a humanitarian gesture “on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran.” But he sounded a warning: “If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully.”
Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency called Trump’s announcement part of his “delirium,” and Ebrahim Azizi, head of the national security commission of Iran’s parliament, said on X that any interference in the strait would be seen as a ceasefire violation.
Trump spoke hours after Iran said it was reviewing the U.S. response to its latest proposal to end the war and made clear these are not nuclear negotiations. The fragile three-week ceasefire appears to be holding.
Cargo ships attacked near the strait
Earlier Sunday, a cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz said it was attacked by multiple small craft, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center reported, while another ship was hit by “unknown projectiles.” They were the latest in at least two dozen attacks in and around the strait since the Iran war began, and a reminder of the risks if the new U.S. effort goes forward.
No injuries were reported.
They were the first reported attacks in the area since April 22. Tehran has effectively closed the strait by attacking and threatening ships, and the threat level in the area remains critical.
The first ship was an unidentified cargo ship traveling north near Sirik, Iran, east of the strait, the British monitor said. Iranian officials have asserted that they control the strait and that ships not affiliated with the United States or Israel can pass if they pay a toll, challenging the freedom of navigation guaranteed by international law.
Iran denied an attack, the semiofficial Iranian outlets Fars and Tabnak reported, and said a passing ship had been stopped for a documents check as part of monitoring.
Iranian patrol boats, some powered only by twin outboard motors, are small, nimble and hard to detect. Trump last month ordered the U.S. military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines in the strait.
The second ship was a tanker that reported being struck around 11:40 p.m. Sunday while off Fujairah, United Arab Emirates.
The British military monitor also said Sunday that ships near Ras al-Khaimah, the northernmost emirate in the United Arab Emirates and close to the strait, reported receiving radio warnings to move from anchorages. It was not clear who sent the VHF messages.
Iran reviews US response to its latest proposal
Tehran is reviewing the U.S. response to its latest proposal to end the war, Iran’s judiciary Mizan news agency cited Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei as saying.
But “at this stage, we have no nuclear negotiations,” Baghaei said. Iran’s nuclear program and enriched uranium have long been the central issue in tensions with the U.S., but Tehran would rather address it later.
Iran’s proposal wants other issues resolved within 30 days and aims to end the war rather than extend the ceasefire, according to Iran’s state-linked media. Trump on Saturday said he was reviewing the proposal but expressed doubt it would lead to a deal.
Iran’s 14-point proposal calls for the U.S. lifting sanctions on Iran, ending the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, withdrawing forces from the region and ceasing all hostilities, including Israel’s operations in Lebanon, according to the semiofficial Nour News and Tasnim agencies, which have close ties to Iran’s security organizations.
Pakistan’s prime minister, foreign minister and army chief continue to encourage the U.S. and Iran to speak directly, according to two officials in Pakistan who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. Pakistan hosted face-to-face talks last month and has passed messages between the two sides.
Iran stands firm on Strait of Hormuz
Trump has offered a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where about a fifth of the world’s trade in oil and natural gas typically passes, along with fertilizer badly needed by farmers around the world and other petroleum-derived products.
Tehran “will not back down from our position on the Strait of Hormuz, and it will not return to its prewar conditions,” Iran’s deputy parliament speaker, Ali Nikzad, said earlier Sunday.
The U.S. has warned shipping companies they could face sanctions for paying Iran in any form, including digital assets, to transit the strait safely.
Meanwhile, the U.S. naval blockade since April 13 is depriving Tehran of oil revenue it needs to shore up its ailing economy. The U.S. Central Command on Sunday said 49 commercial ships have been told to turn back.
“We think that they’ve gotten less than $1.3 million in tolls, which is a pittance on their previous daily oil revenues,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Sunday. He said Iran’s oil storage is rapidly filling up and “they’re going to have to start shutting in wells, which we think could be in the next week.”
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Lidman reported from Tel Aviv, Israel, and Anna from Lowville, New York. Associated Press writers Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, Mike Catalini in Trenton, New Jersey, and Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed to this report.
The Dictatorship
Trump uses ambassadorship offer to narrow a closely watched GOP primary field
With Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell retiring in Kentucky, GOP officials are optimistic about holding on to the seat. The monthslong question, however, has been which of the party’s top contenders would get the nomination.
Much of the right had already rallied behind Rep. Andy Barr, whose candidacy is perhaps best known for a recent campaign ad in which he boasted“It’s not a sin to be white, it’s not against the law to be male, and it shouldn’t be disqualifying to be a Christian.” He nevertheless faced a primary against former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron and businessman Nate Morris, who enjoyed the backing of billionaire Republican megadonor Elon Musk, who invested $10 million in Morris’ candidacy.
Late last week, the GOP field narrowed from three candidates to two. The Associated Press reported:
President Donald Trump entered the fray of another Republican primary Friday by endorsing Kentucky congressman Andy Barr for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, the former longtime Senate GOP leader. […]
In a Truth Social post just before his endorsement of Barr, Trump announced that he’d asked Morris to “step aside” from the race to join his administration as an ambassador.
The president didn’t elaborate on the specific office he would reward Morris with, writing“I’ve asked Nate to step aside from that Race to take a role in my Administration as an Ambassador. … We will be announcing Nate’s new role soon.”
As a practical matter, Barr is now very well positioned to succeed. Indeed, shortly after Trump endorsed him, Senate Republican leaders, including National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott, also threw their backing behind the congressman, leaving little doubt he’s the odds-on favorite ahead of primary day in Kentucky, which is just two weeks away.
But before the political world moves on, there are a couple of related dimensions to this to keep in mind.
First, to a degree without modern precedent, the White House keeps using ambassadorships as consolation prizesand the Morris example is just the latest in a broader pattern.
Second, remember Joe Sestak?
In 2010, the Democratic congressman from Pennsylvania made an offhand comment about being offered a job in the Obama administration if he agreed not to run against then-incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter, who had switched parties to become a Democrat a year earlier.
The remark didn’t seem especially provocative, but Republican Rep. Darrell Issa of California described it as a scandal comparable to Watergateand conservative commentator Jeffrey Kuhner similarly argued at the time, in reference to the Sestak matter, “The White House is facing a major scandal — one that threatens to bring down President Obama. It could be his Watergate.”
In hindsight, the claims were obviously quite silly, and the story (such as it was) quickly evaporated. But 16 years later, a Republican president has offered a candidate a job as part of a deal to get him out of a Senate race, and it’s hard not to notice the lack of hysteria from those who saw rumors of a Sestak offer as a meaningful controversy.
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
The Dictatorship
U.S. denies Iran struck a military vessel during new effort to reopen Strait of Hormuz
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The U.S. military on Monday denied claims that Iran struck a U.S. Navy vessel as American forces are offering to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuzwhere hundreds have been stuck since the Iran wasbegan. Over the past two months, Tehran has attacked some vessels and blocked others that don’t receive its authorization.
The U.S. military’s Central Command also said two American-flagged merchant ships have “successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz” and that Navy guided-missile destroyers in the Persian Gulf are helping to restore commercial shipping traffic.
The statement on X said the destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz “in support of Project Freedom” and that the merchant ships are ” safely headed on their journey.” It did not say when the Navy ships arrived or when the merchant vessels departed.
Iranian news agencies, including the semiofficial Fars and the Iranian Labour News Agency, had earlier claimed that Iran struck a U.S. vessel near an Iranian port southeast of the strait, accusing it of “violating maritime security and navigation norms.” The reports said the vessel was forced to turn back.
The U.S. Central Command said on social media that “no U.S. Navy ships have been struck.”
The U.S. military has said the new initiative, announced by President Donald Trumpon Sunday, might involve guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and 15,000 service members but has not specified what kind of assistance it would provide. The U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center has advised ships to cross the strait in Oman’s waters, saying it set up an “enhanced security area.”
It was unclear whether any vessels were attempting to cross the strait, or whether shipping companies and their insurers would feel comfortable taking the risk given that Iran has fired on ships in the waterway and vowed to keep doing so.
Iran’s control of traffic through the crucial artery for the world’s oil and gas supplies has proved a major strategic advantage in its war with the U.S. and Israel, allowing Iran to inflict tremendous pain on the global economy despite being outgunned on the battlefield.
Trump warns of ‘forceful’ response if Iran interferes
The effort to revive traffic risks unraveling the fragile ceasefire that has held for more than three weeks.
U.S. President Donald Trump, in Sunday’s announcement that the U.S. would “guide” ships out of the strait, warned that Iranian efforts to block them “will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully.”
He described what he called “Project Freedom” in humanitarian terms, designed to aid stranded seafarers, many on oil tankers or cargo ships, who have been stuck in the Persian Gulf since the war began. Crews have described to The Associated Pressseeing intercepted drones and missiles explode over the waters as their vessels run low on drinking water, food and other supplies.
Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency called Trump’s “Project Freedom” part of his “delirium.”
Iran’s military command on Monday said ships passing must coordinate with them.
“We warn that any foreign military force — especially the aggressive U.S. military — that intends to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted,” Maj. Gen. Pilot Ali Abdollahi told state broadcaster IRIB.
The Joint Maritime Information Center said the U.S. has set up an “enhanced security area” near the Oman side of the strait. It urged mariners to coordinate closely with Omani authorities “due to anticipated high traffic volume.”
It warned that passing close to usual routes, known as the traffic separation scheme, “should be considered extremely hazardous due to the presence of mines that have not been fully surveyed and mitigated.”
Iran stands firm on its grip of the strait
The disruption of the waterway has squeezed countries in Europe and Asia that depend on Persian Gulf oil and gas, raising prices for gasoline, food and other items far beyond the region.
Trump has promised to bring down gas prices as he faces midterm elections this year.
Iran has called U.S. moves to dislodge its grip on the strait ceasefire violations.
The U.S. has warned shipping companies they could face sanctions for paying Iran for transit of the strait. It has enacted a naval blockade on Iranian ports since April 13, telling 49 commercial ships to turn back, U.S. Central Command said Sunday.
The blockade has deprived Tehran of oil revenue it needs to shore up its ailing economy.
U.S. officials hope the blockade forces Iran back to the negotiation table.
“We think that they’ve gotten less than $1.3 million in tolls, which is a pittance on their previous daily oil revenues,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Sunday, adding that Iran’s oil storage is rapidly filling up and “they’re going to have to start shutting in wells, which we think could be in the next week.”
Iran’s 14-point proposal made public over the weekend calls for the U.S. to lift sanctions on Iran, end the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, withdraw forces from the region, and cease all hostilities, including Israel’s operations in Lebanon, according to the semiofficial Nour News and Tasnim agencies, which have close ties to Iran’s security organizations.
Iranian officials said they received and were reviewing the U.S. response, though Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters on Monday that changing demands, which he did not detail, made diplomacy difficult.
Iran has publicly claimed its proposal does not include issues related to its nuclear program and enriched uranium— long a driving force in tensions with the U.S.
Iran’s proposal wants other issues resolved within 30 days and aims to end the war rather than extend the ceasefire, according to Iran’s state-linked media. Trump on Saturday said he was reviewing the proposal but expressed doubt it would lead to a deal.
Iranian crew was taken off seized tanker
Pakistan said Monday it has facilitated the transfer of 22 crew members from an Iranian vessel seized earlier by the U.S., describing the move as a confidence-building measure as Islamabad attempts to revive talks between the two sides.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said the crew members, who had been aboard the Iranian container ship MV Touska, were evacuated and flown to Pakistan overnight. They are expected to be handed over to Iranian authorities.
The vessel will be brought into Pakistani territorial waters for necessary repairs before being returned to its original owners, the ministry said, adding that the process is being coordinated with the support of Iran and the U.S.
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