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The next races where Latino voters will be decisive

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Democrats watched with mouths agape this week as Latino voters, many of whom have sat out previous primary seasons, turned out in droves for James Talarico in Texas.

But the push to win back the elusive and swingy coalition that proved pivotal to President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory goes way beyond the closely watched Lone Star State. This is a story that kicked off last year as Democrats overperformed in Latino-dominant districts across Virginia and New Jersey. It’s one that multiple candidates and strategists told Playbook could make or break Dems’ ambitions to take the House — and there’s a handful of key districts across the country that will offer the next test cases.

From Colorado to Arizona to Nebraska, top candidates in Democratic primaries are watching the record turnout numbers from Latinos and making these voters a top target for their campaigns to flip their razor-edge districts now held by Republicans. It’s an early bet as they face primaries in the months ahead — but in seats that in the past have been won by less than a percentage point, these voters could make the difference.

“They vote for Trump, they vote for Mikie Sherrill, they just showed up [in Texas] in record numbers,” said Chuck Rocha, a strategist who advised Talarico’s campaign. “So what that tells you is you should start talking to them sooner with a persuadable message.”

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, the state’s so-called blue dot which is represented by the retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon, is a top target for Democrats to flip this year. So too is Colorado’s 8th District, held by incumbent Republican Rep. Gabe Evans. There’s also Arizona’s 6th District, which recently was added to the DCCC’s Red-to-Blue program as Democrats aim to edge out incumbent GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani. All of these districts have an influential minority of Latinos that local strategists say are crucial to any Democratic victory.

Enter this crop of Democratic candidates who watched Texas’ results roll in with an eye toward their own races: Denise Powell in Nebraska, Manny Rutinel in Colorado and JoAnna Mendoza in Arizona.

In each district, there’s a growing enthusiasm on the ground among Latinos that indicates they’ll be major players in this cycle. “Especially when you have a contested primary in a year like this, every vote matters,” Powell said in an interview. “And I know that’s something so cliche that we all say and whatever,” she said. But when it comes to Latinos, “we’re not taking anything for granted.”

Rutinel, one of the top Democrats running in Colorado’s 8th, told Playbook he’s buoyed by the surge in Latino voters that he’s seen. “This is Colorado’s most Latino district. It’s drawn for Latino representation,” he said. “And I think folks right now are feeling both scared on the one hand about what’s happening with ICE brutality in this district and beyond, and they’re also feeling energized to fight back.”

And he’s not the only one in the primary watching the Latino vote: former state legislator Shannon Bird has earned the endorsement of top labor unions with Latino membership. “We’ve already knocked on thousands of doors in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods and attended dozens of community and cultural events organized by local Hispanic institutions,” Bird’s campaign manager Eve Zhurbinskiy said in a statement.

Rutinel and his team are leaning into his background to persuade voters ahead of the June 30 election: “I’m the only Latino candidate in this race and bilingual, I have the ability to speak directly to these communities,” he said. Colorado’s 8th was one of the most expensive House races of the 2024 cycle, and it’s 39 percent Latino. Should Rutinel win, he’d face Evans for a Latino vs. Latino showdown.

Over in Arizona, even its lower Latino-dominant districts like the 6th are still heavily influenced by the coalition. “This is just a part of the world where one out of every three people is Latino,” a Democratic strategist working on Arizona races said. It’s a district that contains parts of Tucson, a major Air Force base and more rural on-the-border voters.

The path to victory there for a Democratic candidate like Mendoza is a bit closer: her primary isn’t nearly as contentious, but the district is a toss-up. Ciscomani, in the 2022 midterm season, carried the district by fewer than 6,000 votes. A Mendoza and Ciscomani matchup will make for another Latino vs. Latino showdown.

But of course, whether it be in Colorado, Arizona or Nebraska, the Democratic nominees will inevitably face a tough battle against Republicans, who’ve made significant inroads with Latinos over the past several years. Republicans are still pointing to those significant margins as they get deeper into the primary season and beyond, and they’re projecting confidence that the margins will stick.

“Democrats haven’t learned a thing from the historic realignment among Hispanic voters in recent elections,” RNC spokesperson Zach Kraft said in a statement. Trump’s agenda of “secure borders, safe communities, and a strong economy resonates with all hardworking Americans and is enabling Republicans to be on offense,” he said.

But with Texas delivering such a resounding early sign of Latino engagement for Democrats, the campaigns are growing more bullish that these voters may start trending back in their direction. “We don’t treat Latino voters like a turnout target. We treat them like they are a persuasion target,” the Arizona strategist said.

Latino voters have historically had abysmal turnout in midterm elections. Many report in polls having never interacted with any campaign. It’s making the recent trends all the more eye-popping, and reaffirming Powell’s campaign strategy to target them in a place like Nebraska’s 2nd, where Latinos in South Omaha make up about 10 percent of the district.

Powell is also facing fierce competition to win over the district’s Latinos ahead of the May 12 primary. John Cavanaugh, a state senator and one of the primary front-runners, said in a statement that he’s also pursuing an “aggressive Latino voter contact plan” building on “prominent Latino endorsements, my work with and for the Hispanic community in the Legislature, and my record of showing up in every part of this district.”

The throughline connecting all these campaigns is the significance of the Latino voter margins. Powell said Democratic campaigns like hers were “glued to Texas” to see if the turnout trend would continue to bear out. With all signs pointing to yes, expect the Latino outreach to grow in these must-watch races.

“We’re paying close attention to it,” a Democratic strategist working in Nebraska said. “We’re communicating to [Latino voters] in every way that we possibly can, and making sure they know we need to turn out in this primary.”

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‘A two-edge sword’: Former top ICE official’s campaign roils battleground district

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Republicans in Ohio are worried that a former administration official who helped oversee President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration tactics could cost them a chance to flip a battleground House district in November.

The GOP has its best chance in years to oust longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur from her Toledo-area seat after the Ohio Legislature redrew her district — which Kaptur won by less than 1 percent in 2024 — to be more favorable for Republicans last year.

But Madison Sheahan, who served as deputy director at Immigration and Customs Enforcement until she resigned to run for Congress earlier this year, has become the center of a contentious primary that GOP operatives in the state say could lead to the party squandering its chance to flip the seat.

At the heart of the concern is Sheahan’s role at ICE, where she helped lead the president’s sweeping immigration raids across the country — a high profile role that could be popular with Trump-friendly primary voters but toxic to a general electorate that has been critical of the immigration crackdown.

“Primary issues that help you win are a two-edge sword. They can help you in the primary, but they might pose challenges in the fall election,” said Ohio GOP strategist Terry Casey, who isn’t affiliated with any campaign in the primary. “There’s obviously [a] debate of what happened in Minnesota and some other things.”

Sheahan worked at ICE amid enforcement operations in major cities that triggered violent confrontations and protests. Those clashes culminated in the killing of two American citizens by immigration officials in Minneapolis. She launched her campaign days after the killing of Renee Good, but before the shooting death of Alex Pretti.

Even as her role as a top immigration official has buoyed her in the primary, her ties to the controversial shootings — which forced the Trump administration to recalibrate its approach on immigration — have opened her up to attacks from primary opponents.

And some Republicans think her record would make her a soft target for Kaptur in a general election battle.

“Republicans have this terrible impression — as I’m out there knocking on doors, ICE does come up a lot, and it’s really divided the country, even some Republicans,” Alea Nadeem, one of her primary challengers, said during an April debate in Toledo.

Sheahan’s campaign did not respond to an interview request but a campaign spokesperson dismissed the criticisms.

“Madison Sheahan’s opponents continue to push false narratives and baseless attacks as last-ditch efforts to save their failing campaigns,” spokesperson Robert Paduchik said. “Attacking her record of executing President Trump’s top priority to defend the homeland is a slap in the face to Ohioans who demanded closed borders and deportations.”

There’s been little public polling ahead of the May 5 primary, and Republicans in Washington are staying out of the primary. But that hasn’t stopped Sheahan from touting her ties to Trump and branding herself as the MAGA candidate in a bid to outflank the field, which includes former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who lost to Kaptur in 2024, state Rep. Josh Williams and Nadeem, an Air Force veteran.

Sheahan’s late entry into the race, months after the rest of the field started campaigning, caught Republicans in northeast Ohio off-guard, including Barbara Orange, the chair of the Lucas County Republican Party. Orange heads the largest GOP chapter in the district and is staying neutral in the primary.

“We were very surprised that she jumped in the race,” Orange said. “I’m not sure really why, but it is her right to do so, and we’ll just have to see how it plays out.”

For most of April, Sheahan was the only candidate running TV spots in the district. One of the ads highlights her role at ICE, including images of the president cut together with images of Sheahan in tactical gear and a voice-over pledging that Sheahan will “put America first.”

But that strategy is facing headwinds as Americans sour on Trump’s handling of immigration. A Blue Light News poll from April found 51 percent of Americans believe Trump’s mass deportation campaigns and his widespread deployment of ICE agents is too aggressive. But the same poll found that 70 percent of Trump voters feel Trump’s immigration policies are either about right or not aggressive enough.

Some of Sheahan’s Republican opponents have attacked her over the issue, even while stressing they remain supportive of Trump’s deportation goals. During that debate, Nadeem said she’s spoken to Republicans in the district who are concerned about ICE agents’ conduct, and called on the agency to conduct “additional training” so that “we can actually have a good message out here for Republicans.”

Williams has tailored his jabs to specifically criticize Sheahan’s role at the agency by suggesting she’s accountable for the Minnesota shootings.

“She left in the middle of a scandal that happened under her watch when she was there,” Williams told The Columbus Dispatch.

During the debate, he blamed the violent protests in Minnesota on the Trump administration’s initial inability to negotiate with state officials to allow ICE to take custody of immigrants in prisons and jails.

“Now the right people are in charge of ICE,” he said, seated feet away from Sheahan. “And we saw 80 county sheriffs in Minnesota sign on to allow us to get them out of the jails.”

Some Republicans in the state say Sheahan’s political career — which has taken place largely outside the Buckeye State — might alienate her from Ohio voters compared to other candidates with deeper roots in the region.

She grew up in Curtice, Ohio, and rowed crew at Ohio State University but worked for three years in Kristi Noem’s gubernatorial office in South Dakota and served a brief stint as head of the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries before joining the Trump administration.

“She’s got the weakest links to the district,” said unaffiliated Ohio GOP strategist Bob Clegg.

Orange, the county party chair, questioned whether Sheahan’s experience could translate to serving Ohio but declined to elaborate to maintain her neutrality in the race.

“I know for sure we have two excellent candidates running in Derek Merrin and Josh Williams,” she said. “They’ve lived here their whole lives.”

Paduchik dismissed this criticism, saying “Sheahan and her family lived in this district for decades.”

If Sheahan survives the primary, she may do so bruised by her opponents’ jabs and with a depleted campaign treasury ahead of the general. She reported having $67,000 in the bank in mid-April, according to Federal Election Commission filings, less than Nadeem, Merrin and Williams. But no GOP candidate came close to Kaptur’s $3.1 million in cash on hand.

That war chest could offer Kaptur a chance to capitalize on the attacks on Sheahan’s immigration record, strategists said, a tactic already being employed by her primary opponents.

“I would assume that Marcy will use that as an issue,” Clegg said. “I mean, she could have a big problem with it.”

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