The Dictatorship
The destruction Hurricane Melissa brought to Jamaica might only be the beginning
Black River, Jamaica, was the first spot on the island to be electrifiedback in 1893. After Hurricane Melissa tore through this week, much of the island is in the darkand according to Prime Minister Andrew HolnessBlack River has been “totally destroyed.”
Jamaica felt the full wrath of Melissa, a storm that needed only 24 hours to intensify from a tropical storm to a Category 4 behemoth. By the time it made landfall only 10 or 12 miles from Black River in New Hope, it had grown even stronger: Category 5, 185 mph winds — or maybe even stronger — and a slow, meandering pace that let it lash its targets with that wind and rain for too long.
This has become a grim hallmark of a warming world.
This has become a grim hallmark of a warming world. Rapid intensification of hurricanes relies on conditions that in decades past were much more rare than they are today. A 2023 study found that the average maximum rate of intensification was almost 30% higher from 2001 to 2020 than it was between 1971 and 1990; the number of storms that leap from Category 1 to Category 3 or higher within 36 hours has “more than doubled” in that modern era compared to in the past. Since that study came out, we have witnessed, among other examplesHurricane Milton’s wind speed jump 95 mph in a day.
The main culprit is heat. Abnormally warm waters — both at the surface and down below — helped Melissa gain strength, even as it took a leisurely path that in a normal world would likely lead its power to wane. That warmth is being addedyear by year, via the greenhouse gases the world continues to emit. Saying so has become cliche at this point, but once again, it’s necessary to point out that the countries barely responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases are bearing the brunt of the consequences.
In 2023, excluding land-use changes, Jamaica emitted less than eight million tons of carbon dioxide. The U.S. emitted that much every 14 hours or so. In China, that number would be less than six hours. In a single year, the U.S. emits 10 times as much carbon dioxide as Jamaica has emitted everin total. And Haiti, where at least 23 people have died from Melissa’s impacts, emits half the carbon dioxide Jamaica does.
The other anomaly facing Jamaica and the rest of the region isn’t climatological, but governmental. The Trump administration has made some promising noises this week about providing aid as the damage becomes more clear, but it is doing so after nine months of attempts to kneecap a wide swath of government function and while, notably, the federal government remains shut down. Already, the difference in response to disasters rich countries’ emissions have helped fuel is plain: Only a year ago, the United States Agency for International Development, or USAID, sent staff and supplies to the Caribbean before Hurricane Beryl arrived on its tear through the region, along with coordinating the response once it had passed. This time, USAID is … gone.
While the relatively poor nations of the Caribbean will face down perpetually microwaved waters and the storms they produce from here on out, the U.S. itself is, of course, not immune from hurricanes. Though much of the related devastation the country has faced in recent years was due to the storms’ water rather than wind — recovery is still ongoing a year after Helenefor example — no place in the country would be safe from, essentially, an EF4 tornado blown out to hurricane size.
Only a small handful of hurricanes have made landfall in this country as a Category 5 storm. Only one, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricanehad wind speeds to match Melissa’s ferocity, and though it killed more than 400 people in the Florida Keys and elsewhere, it occurred far too long ago to offer much in the way of lessons. Hurricane Andrew, however, perhaps does offer a glimpse into what almost seems like an inevitable future.
No place in the country would be safe from, essentially, an EF4 tornado blown out to hurricane size.
That 1992 storm, which devastated the Miami area after making landfall with 165 mph winds — still 20 mph weaker than the punch Melissa packed — destroyed tens of thousands of structures and damaged many more, for a total cost of roughly $26.5 billion (upward of $60 billion in today’s dollars). In its wake, Florida revamped its building codes, and as a result, most new construction is significantly stronger than it used to be — of course, not all construction is new construction, there are a lot more coastal structures than there used to be and whatever enormous waves get kicked up will be starting from a higher point due to sea levels rising.
A 2017 analysis by insurance giant Swiss Re found that if Andrew returned in its exact same form, it would cause upward of $100 billion in damage; if it veered 20 miles north and actually struck downtown Miami, that number would rise to nearly $300 billion. (That’s $130 billion and $400 billion today.) And of course, not every state has Florida’s building codes.
“No matter how much you prepare for a Category 5 hurricane, it’s horrendous to experience,” Said Lixion Avilaa retired NOAA hurricane specialist who was on staff at the National Hurricane Center during Andrew’s rampage, on the storm’s 30th anniversary. As Black River and the rest of Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and more start to dig out and rebuild, the sentiment rings grotesquely true. And in a warmer, warming world, more and more people — in the Caribbean as well as in the U.S. — are likely to join a grim, catastrophic club.
Dave Levitan
Dave Levitan is an independent science writer and editor who has written for dozens of outlets. Find his work at davelevitan.comand his newsletter at gravityisgone.com.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran again launched drone and missile attacks targeting Bahrainand Kuwaiton Sunday following new U.S. airstrikes against the Islamic Republic, and threatened a “complete halt” in negotiations to end the warif Washington continues its attacks.
Efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuzwithout Iran’s oversight has sparked days of crossfire. A multinational maritime body overseen by the U.S. Navy said Saturday it would expand a route near Omanfor inbound and outbound traffic.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday reiterated the claim that Tehran must govern the strait to the Persian Gulfthat once carried a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas.
“Any attempt to establish new or separate arrangements from those currently being carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran will only lead to further complications, delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and increase the level of tension,” Araghchi said.
The strait has long been considered an international waterway despite its location in Iran and Oman’s territorial waters. In recent days, Iran has twice attacked vessels going through a route near the Omani side.
A Pakistani official involved in the technical talks between the U.S. and Iran told MS NOW Sunday that talks between the sides are on hold given the ongoing fighting between the two sides. The source, who did not want to be named to discuss the sensitive matter, said the U.S., Iran, Pakistan and Qatar all have representatives currently in Switzerland to restart discussions when instructed to do so.
But the Trump administration said nothing has been canceled and technical talks are on track for the coming days.
Talks include arrangements around the strait, the removal of a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions on Iran, and the future of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The two sides have 60 days from their signing of the memorandum of understanding earlier this month to work out details.
Continued conflict in Lebanon threatens the agreement, which says fighting must end on all fronts before certain issues can be discussed.
Strikes target Gulf states hosting US military
Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for the attacks in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Kuwait, which hosts a major U.S. military base, said air defenses intercepted Iranian drones and two missiles just after the U.S. strikes in Iran. There were no reports of injuries or damage.
Bahrain said the Iranian strikes damaged a residential building near the international airport and no one was killed. Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet. The damaged building was not near its headquarters.
Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry denounced what it called “a dangerous escalation that reveals that what Tehran is doing is not a passing act, nor an isolated incident, but rather a deliberate approach and a systematic pattern of repeated aggression.”
Later on Sunday, Qatar said a civilian had been killed, and another person was hurt, by shrapnel related to “military operations in the area” after a vessel didn’t return at its scheduled time on Saturday. It did not give details.
Trump accuses Iran of violating ceasefire
The U.S. military said it struck Iranian military “surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities and minelayer capabilities” following an attack on a ship on Saturday. The Panamanian-flagged tanker Kiku carried crude oil for the state-run energy company of Qatar, another key mediator.
U.S. President Donald Trump on social media accused Iran of violating the deal and warned of a point where the U.S. may “be forced to militarily complete the job.”
“If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!” Trump wrote.
The exchanges of fire began when an Iranian drone struck a merchant vesseloff Oman on Thursday and the U.S. military retaliated.
Ship traffic on the strait had increased over the past 72 hours, “despite the elevated threat environment,” the multinational maritime body overseen by the U.S. Navy said Sunday, adding that “U.S.-assisted commercial transits continued uninterrupted.”
It said 89 such transits had been made, below the historical average of 138 vessels a day.
Iran calls for new ‘conflict control unit’ in Lebanon
Last week, Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreementto end the latest fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group, which began two days after the Iran war started when Hezbollah fired at Israel. Israel has responded with an invasion of southern Lebanon and it has said it will not withdraw until Hezbollah is disarmed.
The agreement did not include Iran or Hezbollah, which has criticized itand rejected calls to disarm.
On Sunday, Iran’s foreign minister again said the U.S. must force Israel to halt attacks and withdraw. Israel occupies around 600 square kilometers (231 square miles) in southern Lebanon, which it says it needs as a security buffer.
Sporadic clashes have continued, and Hezbollah’s leader said Saturday that the group would continue fighting until Israel withdraws from Lebanon.
Key Iranian negotiator and parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Sunday that a meeting of a new “conflict control unit” formed among Iran, the United States and Lebanon should meet as soon as possible, Iran’s state broadcaster reported.
Two strikes hit southern Lebanon on Sunday morning — one in Taybeh town and the other in the Nabatiyeh area, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency. There was no immediate word on casualties.
Overnight, Hezbollah militants killed an Israeli soldier in Deir Siryan village in southern Lebanon, according to Israel’s military. Hezbollah did not comment.
Israel targets a village in Syria
Israel’s military targeted Abdin village in southern Syria’s Daraa province with artillery shelling Sunday evening, Syrian state media reported. There was no immediate report of casualties.
State news agency SANA earlier reported that residents had blocked the road into the village with stones to prevent Israeli forces from entering it again after they had entered and withdrawn.
Earlier Sunday, Israel’s military said it had killed several armed men in southern Syria but gave no details. There was no statement from Syrian officials.
Israel seized control of a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria in December 2024 following the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar Assad in an insurgent offensive. Israeli officials initially called the move temporary, but more recently they have said they plan to occupy the zone indefinitely.
New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani has a message for political opponents using him as the new face of the Democratic Party: “Let them.”
Recent primary races in New York turned into a proxy war between progressives, including democratic socialists like Mamdani, and establishment Democratic politicians after candidates endorsed by Mamdani faced off against those endorsed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul. After all three of Mamdani’s endorsements bore fruit, a national spotlight shone on the mayor as a growing influence in the Democratic Party.
Asked on ABC News’ “This Week” on Sunday how he felt about Republicans making him the “poster child” for the Democratic Party, Mamdani said, “Let them. We don’t have to ask ourselves what life looks like if a socialist wins. I won last November, and over the course of these last six months, what we’ve delivered for working people are the very things we were told were impossible.”
He touted recent campaign promises he delivered on, including freezing rents for nearly one million rent-stabilized apartments, expanding free child care and filling potholes across the city.
“I think we are seeing a hunger that is not just felt by New Yorkers, but frankly by Americans from coast to coast for a new politics, one that puts working people at the heart of it,” Mamdani told ABC.
Mamdani dismissed criticism from Republicans and Democrats alike. Jeffries, who represents parts of Brooklyn and Queens, said last week that he and the mayor “agree to strongly disagree about some of his endorsements, and he’s got work to do in terms of the conversations that he’s going to have with members of Congress moving forward.” Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut said, “The effort to nationalize New York is going to fail.”
Mamdani said he’s focused on the three congressional candidates he has already endorsed: Brad LanderDarializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez. But he didn’t rule out future endorsements outside of New York.
“It’s not just New York City where working people are asking themselves ‘why can’t I afford my rent, why can’t I afford my groceries, why can’t I find enough money in my pocket for childcare no matter how hard I work?,’” Mamdani said.
When asked about a recent manifesto penned by a number of moderate House Democrats and Democratic candidates, promoting capitalism over socialism, Mamdani doubled down on his vision for the party.
“I’m not interested in writing a manifesto, or frankly, in reading one,” the mayor said. “I’m interested in delivering.”
Mamdani also criticized Democrats who continue to make antagonizing Trump the center of their politics rather than working people.
“You’ve got to have something that you are not just willing to stand up for, but that you’re also willing to explain how this is relevant to working people,” he said. “And I think this just comes back to the fact that I’m leading a city that’s the wealthiest city in the wealthiest country in the history of the world. I could end the sentence there and say that life is great for 8.5 million people. But it’s also a city where one in four are living in poverty. And for far too many Americans, those contradictions have become their day to day life.”
Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.
Despite remaining undefeated in the initial round of the World Cupthe Iran national team is going home after failing to secure enough points to advance. But they do not leave quietly.
Iran’s tumultuous journey in the World Cup has been the subject of widespread attention amid the U.S. war with Iran, with the United States being one of three countries hosting matches. The Iranian team captain, Mehdi Taremi, blamed FIFA, saying, “It’s a disaster World Cup. A disaster.”
“I mean, FIFA, they have to solve every problem here but unfortunately they could not solve it since the beginning,” Taremi said at a press conference Friday after his team drew with Egypt, knocking Iran out of the tournament.
He pointed to the team’s biggest obstacle. “We don’t have our logistics people here. They don’t have a visa,” Taremi said, adding, “We always complain about these things but no one helps. No one.”
The Trump administration denied visas to key Iranian staff and severely restricted players’ travel. The team’s base camp was moved from Arizona to Tijuana, Mexico, where it was required to return immediately after each game.
“How is it possible we always have to travel from Tijuana? We love the people in Tijuana. We love Mexico,” the Iran team captain said, but added, “It’s not fair.”
Throughout the tournament, the Football Federation of Iran lamented the number of issues, threatening to lodge a formal complaint against FIFA. Head coach Amir Ghalenoei called his team the “most oppressed” in the tournament. A few days before Iran’s final match against Egypt in Seattle on Friday, the U.S. loosened travel restrictions to allow players to enter the United States two days before the game.
“The Iran team will still be required to leave the day the match ends,” the Department of Homeland Security said ahead of the match. “The overall security measures and protocol are the same. We remain committed to providing the safest tournament possible for players, staff, and fans alike.”
Still, Iran finished Group G in third place with three points earned after drawing in its matches against Belgium, New Zealandand Egypt. Under FIFA’s new 48-team format, the top eight of third-place teams move on to the next round, but Iran narrowly fell short.
The team initially seemed poised to advance when it was tied with the same amount of points as Algeria, which scored a goal in stoppage-time against Austria Saturday night. But moments later, Austria tied the game, guaranteeing Iran’s elimination.
Off the field, tensions with Iran heightened Friday when the U.S. struck Iran despite signing a memorandum of understanding meant to halt hostilities in order to finalize a peace deal.
Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.
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